Cover Page The handle http://hdl.handle.net/1887/28777 holds various files of this Leiden University dissertation. Author: Alexandrova Petrova, Petya Title: Agenda setting in the European Council Issue Date: 2014-09-18
Agenda Setting in the European Council Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van Doctor aan de Universiteit Leiden, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. mr. C.J.J.M. Stolker, volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties te verdedigen op donderdag 18 september 2014 klokke 11:15 uur door Petya Alexandrova Petrova geboren te Ruse (Bulgarije) in 1986
Promotiecommissie Promotor: Jouke de Vries Co-promotor: Arco Timmermans Overige leden: Frank Baumgartner (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) Sebastiaan Princen (University of Utrecht) François Foret (Free University Brussels)
To the memory of my grandmother Petra
ISBN: 978-94-6182-468-4 Printing: Off Page Layout and cover design: Petya Alexandrova Petya Alexandrova Petrova All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission from the author.
Contents Tables... x Figures... xi Acknowledgements... xii 1. Introduction... 1 2. Policy Punctuations and Issue Diversity on the European Council Agenda..... 19 3. Explaining Political Attention Allocation with the Help of Issue Character: Evidence from the European Council... 45 4. National Interest versus the Common Good: The Presidency in European Council Agenda Setting... 67 5. Political Responsiveness in Multi-Level Systems: The case of the European Union... 93 6. Upsetting the Agenda: The Clout of Focusing Events in the European Council... 119 7. Conclusions... 145 8. References... 159 9. Annexes... 183 10. Samenvatting... 195 11. Curriculum Vitae... 209 v
Detailed Contents Tables... x Figures... xi Acknowledgements... xii 1. Introduction... 1 vi Agenda Setting and the EU... 3 Focus and Relevance of the Research Project... 4 Policy Issues and the European Council... 6 Nature and Composition of the Agenda... 6 Conditions for Agenda Formation... 8 Empirical Approach... 11 Overview of the Dissertation Contents... 14 2. Policy Punctuations and Issue Diversity on the European Council Agenda..... 19 Abstract... 19 Introduction... 20 The European Council as a Policy Venue... 22 Punctuated Equilibrium and Agenda Dynamics in the European Council... 24 Data and Method... 28 Attention Allocation across Topics... 29 Distribution of Attention Change... 31 Agenda Concentration and Diversity... 36 Diversity and Issue Competition... 39 Conclusion... 42 3. Explaining Political Attention Allocation with the Help of Issue Character: Evidence from the European Council... 45
Abstract... 45 Introduction... 46 From Attribute Intrusion to Issue Character... 48 European Council Agenda Dynamics... 51 Data, Approach, and Methods... 53 Analysis of Issue Character... 55 Temporal Changes in Dimensionality... 58 Explaining Salience of Economic Issue Character... 61 Conclusion... 65 4. National Interest versus the Common Good: The Presidency in European Council Agenda Setting... 67 Abstract... 67 The European Council Presidency and Agenda Setting... 68 Institutional Properties of the European Council and its Presidency... 70 Two Rival Expectations about Presidency Agenda Setting... 73 Analysing Agenda Impact... 76 Testing for Institutional Advantage in Agenda Setting... 81 Reconsidering the Image of the Presidency... 86 Conclusion... 87 Appendixes... 90 Appendix 4.1. Timing of executive speeches and Presidencies... 90 Appendix 4.2. Matched policy agendas codes... 91 5. Political Responsiveness in Multi-Level Systems: The case of the European Union... 93 Abstract... 93 Introduction... 93 Political Responsiveness... 96 vii
viii The Case of the European Union... 98 EU Political Responsiveness?... 100 Analysis Design and Data... 102 Analysis... 106 Discussion... 114 Conclusion... 117 6. Upsetting the Agenda: The Clout of Focusing Events in the European Council... 119 Abstract... 119 Introduction... 119 Focusing Events and Agenda Setting... 121 The European Council as a Venue for Focusing Events... 123 The Logic of Reaction to Focusing Events... 124 Expectations for Responsiveness... 127 Data and Approach... 131 Attention to Focusing Events in the European Council... 135 Analysing the Agenda-Upsetting Effect... 137 Conclusion... 142 7. Conclusions... 145 Out of the Black Box: Main Findings... 146 Empirical Patterns and Lessons... 146 Theoretical Contributions... 150 Implications for Further Research... 153 The European Council as a Policy Venue... 153 Disentangling the EU Policy-Making Process... 154 Construction of Policy Agendas in Political Institutions... 156 8. References... 159 9. Annexes... 183
Annex 1: The European Council in the EC/ EU Treaties... 183 Annex 2: European Council Meetings and Conclusions, 1975 2012... 185 Annex 3: Dataset of Policy-Content-Coded European Council Conclusions... 190 10. Samenvatting... 195 11. Curriculum Vitae... 209 ix
Tables Table 2.1. Aggregated attention to policy fields (1975 2010)... 30 Table 2.2. Statistics on agenda change... 32 Table 2.3. Summary of expectations and results... 43 Table 3.1. Explaining variation in the economic character of the European Council agenda, 1995-2006... 64 Table 4.1. Summary descriptive statistics... 79 Table 4.2. Case study survey of national agenda effect of the Presidency and Pearson correlations of the European Council agenda and the national executive agenda of the presiding country... 82 Table 4.3. Fractional logit: predicting the European Council agenda by the national executive agendas and testing for Presidency effect... 86 Table 5.1. List of variables, data sources and descriptive statistics... 104 Table 5.2. Pooled time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) OLS regressions with fixed effects (for policy area)... 108 Table 5.3. Granger causality tests (half year lag)... 111 Table 5.4. Granger causality tests (half year lag), F 3 test statistic... 111 Table 5.5. Pooled time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) OLS regressions with fixed effects and clustered standard errors (for policy area) on a restricted dataset of four policy areas where Granger causality is found... 112 Table 6.1. Descriptive statistics... 134 Table 6.2. Logistic regression on focusing events on the agenda (presence vs. absence)... 139 Table 6.3. Marginal effects of fractional logit on attention to focusing events on the agenda (share of attention)... 141 x
Figures Figure 2.1. Relative distribution of attention to policy topics per year (1975 2010)... 32 Figure 2.2. Distribution of percentage attention change... 34 Figure 2.3. Agenda entropy per year (1975 2010)... 38 Figure 2.4. Entropy and proportion of attention to the three core topics... 41 Figure 3.1. Agenda-setting models for a single issue (A) and a whole agenda (B)... 50 Figure 3.2. Classical metric MDS on European Council Conclusions, 1975-2012... 56 Figure 3.3. Temporal changes in prominence of issue character of the European Council agenda... 59 Figure 3.4. Economic issue character (D2) on temporal windows for presidencies 21 (A) and 53 (B)... 60 Figure 5.1. European Council half-annual attention patterns to 11 policy areas (2003 2012)... 105 Figure 5.2. Predictive margins for policy area with 95% confidence intervals for model 5... 114 Figure 6.1. Frequency of unique focusing events on the European Council agenda, 1975-2012... 135 xi
Acknowledgements When I applied for this PhD position I wrote in my motivation letter that for the last four years I had been diving in the deep and boundless sea of political science. Now it s been more than eight years and I feel I have learnt to swim in it and come to realise the immense diversity of flora and fauna with both its enchanting beauty and concealed dangers. It s been a unique experience in which being taught and teaching, learning and creating have gone hand in hand. The contents of this dissertation are only a part of the many topics and activities which captured my attention during my journey but they constitute the essence of this large project. Pursuing a PhD is not a lonely enterprise. During the last four years I had the luck and pleasure to meet wonderful people, who showed me what it means to be a good scholar. A number of colleagues have helped me develop my work by discussing ideas, providing comments to draft papers or assisting me with technical aspects of data management. In this respect I want to thank Amber Boydstun, Brendan Halpin, Bryan Jones, Caspar van den Berg, Christian Breunig, Christopher Green-Pedersen, Dimiter Toshkov, Emiliano Grossman, Frank Baumgartner, Gerard Breeman, Jale Tosun, Jeroen Candel, Leticia Elias, Markus Haverland, Sebastiaan Princen and Shaun Bevan as well as the anonymous reviewers of the already published articles. All of the chapters have been presented at a number of conferences, of which the annual meeting of the Comparative Agendas Project was particularly important as it provided an invaluable venue for discussing the politics of attention with like-minded researchers. A number of people deserve special mentions. Arco Timmermans was the supervisor many PhDs dream of he let me use all the freedom I desired but was always there for me when I needed his support. I would certainly miss the afternoons when we discussed new ideas even though many deadlines were knocking on the door. Anne Rasmussen taught me how to look beyond the limited empirical scope of a single study and seek to build strong theory. Working with her was not only enriching and xii
enjoyable; it offered me a role model example on research ethics. Marcello Carammia is someone with whom I can easily think in one direction on the field of political science, not least because the Sicilian and the Bulgarian mindsets are very close. Without his collaboration our dataset on the European Council agenda would not have been of the same quality. Working together was simply a pleasure. In short, a PhD does not only deliver scientific results and new knowledge for the incumbent, it also brings new friendships. Furthermore, I want to use the opportunity to thank my secondary school history teacher Tsonyo Tsonev who once sparked my passion for studying politics. Facing the tough moments of authoring a dissertation would not have been possible without the caring support and encouraging words of my close friends Polina and Georgi, thinking of whom always brings a smile on my lips. My gratefulness extends to my family in the name of my mother and of my grandmother, who unfortunately, could not live long enough to take the pride of her granddaughter holding a PhD. Last but certainly not least, my debts to my partner and soul mate Lyubo for his unconditional love and support and for believing in me all the time are just too large to express in words. xiii