Political Science 12: International Relations David A. Lake Winter 2015 1
Contact Information n Course Webpage: https://quote.ucsd.edu/ lake/teaching/ps-12/ n Also available on TED n email: dlake@ucsd.edu n Office hours: Tuesdays, 1:30-3:30 PM n signup sheet available outside office 2
Teaching Assistants n Kelly Matush n SSB 343 n kmatush@ucsd.edu n Brandon Merrill n SSB 341 n bmerrell@ucsd.edu n Abigail Vaughn n SSB 330 n alvaughn@ucsd.edu 3
Objectives of Course n Provide tools to analyze a variety of international phenomena. n Focus on puzzles of world politics that differ by topic. n Develop research and communication skills through debates. 4
Frieden, Lake, and Schultz, World Politics n UCSD bookstore n Amazon n Ebook version n down-loadable, or n 180 day use 5
Introduction/Theory General trends in conflict and cooperation. Three I s: Interests are what actors want to achieve through political action. Interactions are combinations of choices by two or more actors that produce observed political outcomes. Institutions are sets of rules known and shared by the relevant community of actors that structure political interactions in particular ways. 6
War and Peace War is an extremely costly way for states to settle their disputes. Given the human and material costs of conflict, why do states sometimes fight rather than resolve their disputes peacefully (Chap. 3)? Do states fight wars to satisfy influential domestic interests (Chap. 4)? Why is it so hard for the international community to prevent and punish acts of aggression (Chap. 5)? Why do some individuals and groups resort to violence against governments or unarmed civilians 7
International Political Economy All economic analysis concludes that trade is economically beneficial. Why, then, does every country restrict trade in some way (Chap. 7)? Why did the financial crisis of 2008 spread globally (Chaps. 8 & 9)? Why did the U.S. and Europe respond differently? 8
Transnational Politics In a world of sovereign states, how can the international community constrain their actions? When and why do states do what is right (Chap. 11)? If we all support greater human rights, why has the movement to protect those rights not been more successful (Chap. 12)? If we all support a cleaner environment, why is it so hard to cooperate to protect the environment (Chap. 13)? 9
Lectures n Slides: educational tool; available on my website prior to class. n Will begin each lecture with clicker questions based on reading for that lecture. n 10 percent of course grade n Drop three lowest daily scores n All students are required to purchase and bring their own iclicker2 to class each lecture. 10
iclicker2 11
Norton Studyspace n Link from course homepage. n Available are chapter study plans, chapter outlines, practice quizzes, simulations, and more pedagogical tools. 12
Exams and Grades n Grades: n Exam 1 (30% of total), on material through Feb. 4 (lectures 1-9). Held on Feb. 9. n Exam 2, (30% of total), on material from Feb. 11-March 11 (lectures 10-18). Held on March 18. n Section (30% of total). n Daily quizzes (10% of total) n Exams: combination of short answer (ID) and essay questions n Make-ups available only with permission 13
Sections n Opportunity to discuss readings and lectures. n Primary activity will be debates on current topics of world politics using material from course. n Will organize teams by subject. n Sections will allow some time for teams to prepare. n Debates will be held during the last three weeks of quarter. n Performance graded by individual and team. n Intended to deepen mastery of material from course and develop communication skills. 14
What Shaped Our World? Historical Perspective 15
Conflict and Cooperation n Puzzle: If cooperation is good, why can t countries cooperate all the time? If conflict is bad, why do countries fall into bouts of terrible violence? n Today: nearly unique combination of relative peace and high levels of economic openness. 16
Countries Involved in Interstate Wars per Year, 1820-2010 17
Interstate and Civil Wars, 1946-2010 18
Battle-related Deaths, 1960-2008 19
Expanding Volume of World Trade, 1950-2010 20
U.S. Trade Openness, 1960-2010 21
Major Trends in Global Conflict and Cooperation Level of Interstate War Low High Level of Economic Openness Low High 1) Early 19th c. 4) Interwar Years 3) Late 19th c. (Pax Britannica) 5) Late 20th c. (Pax Americana) 2) Mid-19th c. 22
Unipolarity n The United States is in a position of nearly unprecedented international power. n There is an arguable case that hegemony contributes to peace and economic openness. 23
Share of World Power, 1750- present 24
Share of World Power 0.30 CINC score 0.23 0.15 0.08 0.00 1900 1930 1950 1975 2000 Year USA UK RUS CHN 25
Share of World GDP, 2011 26
Share of World Military Expenditures, 2010 27
Projection of U.S. & Chinese GDP, 2010-2050 28
What Shaped Our World? The Iraq War 29
Background n Preventive war greatest break in U.S. foreign policy in a century. n Public rationale for the war was proven false. n n n 63% of Reps., 27% of Ind., and 15% of Dems. still believe Iraq had WMD. n 38% of Americans believe Iraq was involved with 9/11; 15% believe Iraq was directly involved. Despite 8 years of war, $4 trillion dollars in direct military expenditures, 4807 coalition casualties, and 122,380 (est.) Iraqi casualties, the new Iraqi government remains fragile. U.S. has just sent 3000 troops back to Iraq to help battle new threat from ISIS. 30
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The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988 n n n Origins n n Long standing dispute over control of the Shatt al-arab waterway on the border. Iran weakened by the 1979 Revolution. Iraq launches surprise attack on Iran in Sept. 1980. U.S. supported Iraq. With complicity of U.S., Iraq used chemical weapons against Iranian troops and civilians. n Total casualties est. 1m. 32
The Persian Gulf War, 1990-91 n n n Iraq deeply indebted. Price of oil declining due to Kuwait s excess pumping. Invades Kuwait in August 1990 and later declares it the 19th province of Iraq. In January 1991, U.S. leads a coalition of 34 countries to restore sovereignty to Kuwait. Victory declared after Iraqi forces expelled from Kuwait. 33
Aftermath of Persian Gulf War n U.N. Security Council prohibits MWD in Iraq and sets up postwar inspections regime. Throughout 1990s, U.N. inspectors and Iraq play hide and seek. Inspectors expelled in 1998 amid accusations of spying. Inspectors return in December 2002. n U.N. also imposes sanctions designed to topple Saddam Hussein. Significant costs to general population. Coalition beginning to crack. 34
The Iraq War n U.S. neoconservatives issue appeal in 1998 to remove Hussein from power. Soon after 9/11, renew calls for invading Iraq as part of Global War on Terror. n Claim made that MWD in Iraq posed threat to U.S. and its interests in the region. The U.S. is rebuffed at the United Nations in early 2003. Decides to go to war without UN authorization. 35
The War Starts The U.S. leads a coalition of the willing against Iraq. Britain is the only major ally to participate. Fighting begins on March 20, 2003, with air strikes on suspected hiding places of Saddam Hussein. 36
The War Ends? The U.S. easily overthrows the regime. U.S. forces reach central Baghdad on April 9, 2003. On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush declares that major combat operations in Iraq are over. Yet, 97 percent of U.S. casualties have yet to occur. 37
Civil War Sectarian violence escalates. The destruction of the Askariya Shrine in Samarra in February 2006 is a low point. Nuri al-maliki becomes Prime Minister in May 2006. Serves to exacerbate rather then calm sectarian violence. 38
The Surge and its Effects n n Starting in January 2007, U.S. sends an additional 30,000 troops in the surge. Switch from conventional warfare, focused on defeating enemy troops, to counter-insurgency warfare, designed to win hearts and minds of the population. 39
The U.S. Withdraws n Government remains fragile: after elections in 2010, al-maliki took nine months to form new a government. n Status of Forces Agreement negotiated in 2008 required all U.S. troops to leave by end of 2011. 40
The U.S. Returns n n n n After 2011, Malaki governs even more as a Shiite partisan. Civil war in Syria breeds ISIS. With support from Sunnis in Iraq, ISIS conquers approximately one-third of the country in summer 2014. New elections held in April 2014; Malaki finally steps aside in September in favor of his deputy: Haider al-abadi. U.S. sends 3000 troops to train Iraqi military in fight against ISIS. ISIS presence, June 2014 41