The Star-LedgerlEagleton-Rutgers Poll. Tuesday October I 7 Star-Ledger We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to A sroy based on the surveyfindings presented in this release and background memo will appear in the RELEASE: (EP128-I) auc tar-jkbger!eagleton-rutgers Poll THE [ hone: 732 932-9JS I Vebsite: www.slerp.org - l a>: 32 932 li(fl Dana Birnberg >305 Jeffrey Hack x219 Thomas Regan x2.99 EAaETON-RUIGERS Director: Cliff Zukin x247 - Rachel Askew x32i Peyton Craighill x326 POLL 185 Ryders Lane New Brunswick - Newjcrsev 08901-8557 THE STAR1EEGER hctar-3lcbgcr/eagleton.rutgers Poll - Eaglcton Institute of Politics the 389 voters deemed most likely to vote in the election. The sampling error for registered voters is ± 4.5 percentage points; it is ± 5 percentage points for - conducted with 500 registered voters between Thursday, October 12 and Sunday, October 16. These are some of the main findings of the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll, the tense situation between Arabs and Jews in the Middle East by a margin of 45 to 32 percent. In addition, more voters see Gore rather than Bush as the candidate better able to handle care and the budget surplus, although Bush still trails Gore on almost all issues asked about. margins as the candidate thought better able to handle various issues, such as education, health inroads on the character traits of honesty and trustworthiness. He has also cut into Gore s large debates a narrow plurality see him as having done better than Gore. The Republican has made Bush has done well for himself among New Jerseyans in the first two presidential a similar margin of 46 to 38 percent. Buchanan (1%). The lead among those deemed most likely to vote in the November 7 election is remainder say they intend to vote for minor party candidates such as Ralph Nader (4%) or Pat among registered voters in New Jersey. Twelve percent say they are undecided, and the lead of September, but still leads Republican George W. Bush by a margin of 46 to 37 percent Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore has dropped a few points from his double-digit GORE S LEAD TRIMMED BUT STILL SOLID GOING INTO FINAL DEBATE October 17, 2000 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN
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it has first asked about in September, before the first two presidential debates. The October In September Gore was viewed as more honest and trustworthy than Bush by a margin undecided voters. Bush would have to win almost all of them, or have a number of voters Jersey, but Gore still holds a pretty significant lead that is just slightly less than the number of with a strong performance in tonight s debate. New Jersey s Independent voters generally keep actually change their minds, for him to win New Jersey. He could move partway toward that goal an open mind until late in the election. Gore s 9-point-lead is down from his 13 percentage point lead in September, when he outpolled Bush by 47 to 34 percent among New Jersey registered voters. At that time far more margin of 63 to 30 percent. The October figures for Gore are 58 favorable to 37 percent favorable, still quite positive and ahead of Bush s more balanced numbers of 50 percent favorable presidential debates. Most in the stateviewed through partisan prisms: 57 percent of Democrats gave the nod to Bush by a margin of 42 to 33 percent, with the remaining quarter feeling neither survey shows Gore still leading on most attributes asked about, although Bush has clearly had clearly done better. did in October. Cliff Zukin, director of the poli, commented: Bush has closed a little ground in New New Jerseyans held favorable than unfavorable views of the Vice President, by an enthusiastic to 42 percent unfavorable. New Jerseyans offer the same overall assessment of Bush now as they Seven-in-ten registered New Jersey voters say they saw part or all of one of the first two thought Gore won; 69 percent of Republicans thought Bush had done the better. Independents narrowed the gap. Here are some of these findings. The Rutgers based survey asked about seven issues and six personality characteristics that
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of 43 to 30 percent. Bush now holds a new percentage point advantage (38% to 36%) for a 15 percentage point difference between September and October. In September more thought Gore cares about the needs of people like you by a 54 to 32 percent margin. This is a much narrower 48 to 36 percent in October. The public was divided between which of the two candidates is a strong and decisive leader in September; they remain so in October. In September Gore was widely preferred as the candidate who would better handle the budget surplus by a margin ofsl to 34 percent. This is a narrower 46 to 39 percent difference in October. Gore held a 24 percentage point advantage as the candidate better able to handle education in September; that advantage is now 15 points. Gore now holds a 16 point advantage on the issue of health care. However, his margin was 29 percentage points in September. Gore continues to be the candidate better trusted to deal with abortion by a margin of 52 to 29 percent essentially unchanged from September. 1 Bush continues to hold an advantage over Gore on only one of the issues asked about- national defense and the military. However in the wake of recent terrorism and unease in the Mideast, Bush is now preferred on this score by a margin of 49 to 39 percent, down from a 54 to 35 percentage point difference in September. Finally, the context for the election has changed little since September. The current survey finds 63 percent saying they have a lot of interest in the presidential election, and just 36 percent said they think the outcome of the election will make a great deal of difference in how the government is run over the next few years. These numbers are virtually identical to those reported in last month s survey.
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bc tar-jtbgcr/eagleton-rutgers Poll BACKGROUND MEMO RELEASE (EP128-1), TUESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2000 The latest Siar-Ledger/F.agleton-Rotgers Poll was conducted between October 12-IS with a scientifically selected random sample o1500 New Jersey adult residents interviewed by telephone. The figures in this release are based on this sample size. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expeeted probable difli.rcnce between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn ttomthat population. The sampling error for registered vuters is ± 4.5 percent. at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus 150 percent of New Jersey registered voters wet-c found to have a Ilivorable opinion of Presidential candidate George W. Bush, one would be 95 percent sure thai the tnie figure would be between 45.5 and 54.5 percent (50 ± 4.5) had alt New Jersey registered voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported for Republicans, Independents or Democrats, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. The following chart shows the relationship between sample size and sampling error. Sample Siza and Sampling Error 12 a C Li I, I.5 ac 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 S.ni plo SLr. Sampling error does not take into account oilier sources olvariation inherent in public opinion studies, such as Tion-response, question wording or context ellects. The verbatim wording of all questions asked isreproduced in this background menlo. The sample has been siratired based on county and the data have been weighted on age and education to insure an accurate proportional representation olthe staic. In this release we also refer to likcty voters. These figures are based on the 72% of New Jersey registered voters deemed most likely to vote based on a combination olreported voting intention, reported past voting behavior and interest in the election. l ornoot in the 1996 Presidential election was approximately 72% of all those registered. Turnout in 2000 may, orcoonc, he somewhat higher or lower. The qoestions refrrrcd to in this release are as follows: As you know, there will be an election for President this lull. How much interest do you have in this election a lot, some, a little or none at all? (Q4) Registered Voters Oct 2(100 63% Sept. 2000 61 June 2000 52 Sept. 1996 61 --Sept. 1992 64 22 Sept. 1988 48 33 Likely Voters, October 76 22 Vote Choice --Gore 61 29 Bush 66 26 A Lot Some A LittlclNonc DIK Total 26% 10% 1% 100% 25 13 99 30 16 2 100 28 10 I 100 13 IS 2 l0 8 I 100 100 100 101 100 (494) (707) (618) (627) (663) (505) (372) (222) (184) RUTGERS THEST$ EJNr!ERSr /Q:NEwJEflsEy E1lr tar-!lcbgcrieagleton.nutgcrs Poll Eagleton Institute of Politics 185 Ityders Lane New 11rnzissiek Newiersey 08901-R557 Director: Cliff Zukin x247 Rachel Askew x32l Peyton Craighill x320 Dana Birnbcrg x305 Jeffrey Hack x249 - Thomas Regan x239 l liotte: 732 932-9381 Wehsite: www.slerp.org Fax: 7:12-9:12.1107 THE STAR-LEDGER POLL EAGLETON-RtJrGERS
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In your opinion, how much of a difference will the outcome of this election make in the way the government is nm over the next few years a great deal of difference, some, or not very much difference? (Q5) Great deal Some Not vet-v much Depends DK Total 4 Registered Voters Oct 2000 36% 43% 17% 3% 1% 100% (394) Sept. 2000 36 35 23 4 2 100 (707) Sept. 1996 36 36 24 4 100 (627) SepL 1992 34 34 25 7 100 (663) Scpt. 1988 28 40 24 8 100 (505) Likely Voters 43 43 Ii 3 1 101 (372) Now, suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between [ROTATE ITALICS] Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican; Pat Buchanan, of the Reform Party; and Ralph Nader, of the Green Party who would you vote for? (Q6) Undccidcd/ Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other DEC Total fri Registered Votcn Oct2000 46% 37% 1% 4% 1% 12% 101 (494) Sept. 2000 47 34 1 4 I 13 100 (670) October By Party Democrat 83 5 3 9 100 (177) Independent 35 39 3 9 1 12 99 (143) --Republican 10 81 1 1 1 6 100 (126) September By Party Democrat 83 8 I 3 6 101 (256) Independent 41 30 2 8 1 19 101 (182) Republican 6 54 2 I I 7 101 (163) Likely Voters. October 46 38 1 4 I 10 100 (389) --September 46 36 1 3 1 12 99 (542) Debate Watchers 45 39 1 4 I 10 100 (357) Gender Men 42 43 I 5 1 8 100 (233) Women 49 31 1 3 1 15 100 (261) 2
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THE FOLLOWiNG TABLE ISA COMPOSITE OF RESPONSES TO THREE QUESTIONS: (1) Now, suppose the 2000 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between [ROTATE ITALICSJ Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican; Pat Buchanan, of the Reform Party; and Ralph Nader, of the Green Party who wowd you vote for? * (Q6) IF RESPONDENT CHOSE A CANDIDATE, (2) Are you vezy sure about voting for (Bush/Gore), or might you change your mind before the election7 (Q10). IF RESPONDENT WAS UNDECIDED, (3): At this moment do you lean more towards Bush or more towards GoreT (Q7). Initially Undccided Picks Picks Sure Gore, but Does Bush, About may Lcans Not Lcans but may Sure about Gore chance Gore Iean Bush Registered Voters chanee Bush Total October2000 41% 7% 3% 8% 1% 7% 32% 99 (464) --September 2000 40 11 3 7 3 8 28 100 (633) June 2000 30 14 3 9 3 13 26 98 (578) Party ID Democrat 77 8 3 6 2 4 100 (172) Independent 31 10 3 9 1 13 32 99 (123) Republican 5 5 5 2 10 74 101 (122) Likely Voters, October 43 6 2 7 2 6 35 101 (389) September 39 9 3 7 3 7 31 99 (513) fr 4Those choosing Nader, Buchanan or other art excluded. CATI RANDOMIZE QUESTION 12: I d like to learn a little more about your opinions of the candidates. After I read each name, please tell me if your general impression of him is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don t really have an opinion about him. First (RANDOMIZE...) Favorable or unfavorable? (IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or somewhat (favorable/ unfavorable)? (Q12) Very Somewhat Somewhat Very B USH Registered Voters Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable OK Total October 20(N) 23% 27% 18% 24% 7% 99 (494) September 2000 24 26 18 24 8 100 (670) June2000 12 28 16 14 30 100 (618) Debate Watchers 27 26 17 25 5 100 (357) GORE Registered Voters October 2000 28% 30% 15% 22% 5% 100 (494) September 2000 35 28 15 15 6 99 (670) June2000 14 32 14 14 25 99 (618) Debate Watcher 29 28 16 24 4 99 (357) 3
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Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. Mow about... (RANDOMIZE... Gore or Bush?) (Q13) Gore Bush Both/Same DK!Rcfww Total The budget surplus 46% 39% 3% 12% 100% (494) September2000 51 34 3 12 100 (337) Taxes 47 40 2 11 ioo (494) September 2000 45 39 2 15 101 (337) Social Security 49 37 2 11 99 (494) September2000 50 33 3 14 100 (337) Health care 51 35 3 11 100 (494) --September 2000 57 28 4 11 100 (337) Abortion 52 29 1 17 99 (494) September2000 53 28 4 15 100 (333) National Defense and the Military 39 49 2 10 10 (494) September 2000 35 54 3 8 100 (333) Education 51 36 5 9 101 (494) September 2000 56 32 3 9 100 (670) The tense situation between Arabs and Jews in the Middle East 45 32 5 IN 100 (494) Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Al Gore or more to George W. Bush. How about... [RANDOMIZE) Gore or Bush? (Q14) Gore Bush Both/Same Neither DklRefuse Total Cares about the needs of people like you 48% 36% 5% 5% 6% 100% (494) --September 2000 54 32 5 5 4 100 (337) Is a strong and decisive leader 43 42 6 4 5 100 (493) September 2000 44 40 4 7 5 100 (337) Is honest and trustworthy 36 38 6 13 6 100 494) September 2000 43 30 9 10 8 100 (333) Understands complex issues 50 29 8 4 8 99 (494) September 2000 52 25 13 4 7 101 (333) Shares your values 47 39 4 5 5 100 (493) September 2000 48 37 6 5 5 101 (670) Has a vision for the country s future 46 34 11 4 5 100 (494) --September 2000 49 28 13 5 4 99 (670) 4
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Did you watch either of the two televised debates between the presidential candidates, or not? (Q15) Yes No Total% Registered Voters 72% 28% 100% (494) Likely Voters 77 23 100 (372) Who do you think did better in the presidential debates Gore or Bush? (Q16) Neitlier/ Don t Bush SameiTie Know/Care Total fr) Registered Voters October 2000 37% 40% 19% 4% 100% (357) Likely Voters 35 43 19 3 100 (289) By Party Democrat 57 17 21 5 100 (126) Independent 33 42 23 3 101 (108) Republican 16 69 13 2 100 (95) *Mked only of those respondents who said that they watched one of the two presidential debates. 5
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RELEASE BACKGROUND MEMO - (EP128-2), WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2000 The latest Srar-Ledgcr/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll was conducted between October 12-IS with a scientifically selected random sample of 500 New Jersey registered voters intec-viewed by telephone. The figures in this release are based on this sample size. All surveys are subject to sampling en-or, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for registered voters is ± 4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence inlerval. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters were found to have a favorable opinion of Democratic Senate Candidate Jon Corzioe, one would be 95 percent sure that (he tree figure would be between 46 and 54 percent (SO ± 4) had all New Jersey registered voers been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling en-or increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported for Republicans, Independents or Democrats, arc subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. The following chart shows the relationship between sample size and sampling error. Sample Size and Sampling Error Ii a B 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 600 San, pi. Sire Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. The verbatim wording of all questions asked is reproduced in this background memo. The sample has been stratified based on county and the data have been weighted on age and education to insure an accurate proportional representation of the state. In this release we also refer to likely voters. These figures are based on the 72% of registered voters deemed most likely to vote based on a combination of reported voting intention, reported past voting behavior and interest in the election. Turnout in the 1996 Presidential election was approximately 72% of all those registered. Turnout in 2000 may, of course, be somewhat higher or lower. The questions referred to in this release are as follows: If the election for the Senate were held today, would you vote for (CATI RANDOMIZE Franks, the Republican; or Jon Corzine (KORE-ZIGN), the Democrat? (Q9)* Likely Voters October 2000 45 --September 2000 45 --June 2000 43 Registered Voters By Party Democrat 76 Independent 33 --Republican 16 NAMES IN ITALICS) Bob Corzine Undecided Franks Total (j) Registered Voters October 2000 45% 23% 33% 101% (482) --September 2000 47 21 32 100 (655) --June 2000 43 23 33 99 (579) 18 37 100 (367) 19 36 100 (542) 20 36 99 (442) 17 7 100 (177) 28 40 101 (136) 19 65 100 (125) * Those respondents who answered neither, other, or told us that they won t vote were not included in this table. I- No tcqfltl 1
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THIS TABLE IS A COMPOSITE OF RESPONSES TO THREE QUESTIONS: (WIf the election for the Senate were held today, Would you vote for (CATI RANDOMIZE NAMES IN ITALICS) Bob Franks, the Republican; or Jon Corzine (KORE-ZIGN). the Deinocrat?(Q9). (IF RESPONDENT CHOSE A CANDIDATE, (2) Are you very sure about voting for (Franks/Corzine), or might you change your mind before the election? (QI I). (IF RESPONDENT WAS UNDECIDED, (3): At this moment do you lean more towards Franks or more towards Corzine? (Q I0). DEMOCRAT Initially Undecided REPUBLICAN Picks Corzine, Picks Sure about but may Leans Does Not Leans Franks, but Sure About Corzine chanee Corzine Lean Franks may chanee Franks Total Registered flu Voters October 2000 27% 17% 4% 15% 4% 8% 24% 99% (482) --Sept. 2000 30 17 3 15 3 9 23 100 (655) --June2000 23 20 5 16 2 14 19 99 (574) Party ID --Democrat 57 19 5 10 2 2 5 100 (177 Independent 14 19 3 19 5 16 24 100 (136 --Republican 6 10 4 10 5 11 54 100 (l25 Likely Voters October2000 31 15 4 12 2 9 28 101 (367 --Sept. 2000 30 16 3 13 3 9 27 101 (542: --June2000 25 18 4 15 2 13 23 100 (438; * Those respondents who answered neither, other, or told us that they won t vote were not included in this table. 2
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Is your general impression of Bob Franks/John Corzine favorable or unfavorable, or don t you really have an opinion about him? (IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or somewhat (favorable/ unfavorable)? (RANDOMIZE Q12 C and D) Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable DK Total CORZINE Registered Voters October2000 13% 33% 15% 12% 26% 99% (494) --Sept2000 19 31 15 10 26 101 (670) --June2000 8 28 11 9 44 100 (618) Party ID --Democrat 26 46 5 3 19 99 (177) --Independent 7 34 20 12 27 100 (143) --Republican 3 18 26 27 25 99 (126) Likely Voters October2000 14 34 16 15 21 100 (372) --Sept2000 20 31 17 11 21 100 (542) --June2000 10 29 12 11 38 100 (464) FRANKS Registered Voters October 2000 7 29 13 8 42 99 (494) --Sept 2000 12 24 13 7 43 99 (670) --June2000 7 19 4 2 68 100 (618) Party ID --Democrat 2 16 22 15 45 100 (177) --Independent 7 38 12 7 36 100 (143) --Republican 15 41 6 2 36 100 (126) Likely Voters October2000 10 29 15 8 38 100 (372) --Sept 2000 15 27 14 8 37 101 (542) June2000 8 22 5 3 63 101 (464) 3
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