American Dental Association May 2, 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1
Heading into the Election Year SLIDE 2
Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. Right Track Wrong Direction WT 80 63% 60 40 29% 20 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 SLIDE 3
The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen sharply since then. The median net worth of families, in 2014 dollars. 1983 1992 $77,890 $82,195 2001 2007 $116,031 $137,955 2010 2013 $83,637 $82,756 Source: PEW Research, 12/9/2015 SLIDE 4
America s Political Polarization Continues to Increase SLIDE 5
Most Liberal Republican IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE Most Conservative Democrat 1982 DEM Caucus 344 Members GOP Caucus 1994 DEM Caucus 252 Members GOP Caucus 2002 DEM Caucus 137 Members GOP Caucus 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus 13 2013 DEM Caucus National Journal analysis of voting records, 2013. 4 GOP Caucus SLIDE 6 4
Road to 2016: The Democrats SLIDE 7
Support among non-white voters is the key to Clinton s being on the verge of securing the nomination. Primary Ballot First Choice Democratic Primary Voters White (63%) Non-White (37%) Hillary Clinton 47% 63% Bernie Sanders 50% 34% NET DIFFERENCE -3% +29% SLIDE 8
Road to 2016: The Republicans SLIDE 9
Republican primary election turnout is soaring. Total Primary Turnout by Year 2012 (GOP)/ 2008 (DEM) 2016 % Change 15,293,355 25,130,894 +64% 26,138,917 21,601,834-17% ^Excludes Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Washington, Wyoming, and all nonstate primaries as of April 27, 2016 SLIDE 10
GOP Nomination: Remember this date It still may be hard to get to 50% of the delegates in 2016. May 29, 2012* *Mitt Romney had over 50% of the delegates per AP. SLIDE 11
Trump and Cruz are by far the most likely nominees. Among Republican Primary Voters % Acceptable % Unacceptable Ted Cruz is the nominee. Donald Trump is not nominated. The Convention selects a new candidate. 55% 34% 38% 54% 20% 71% SLIDE 12
The Underlying Structure of the 2016 Campaign SLIDE 13
Measuring economic confidence is important because it is a key component of President Obama s job approval and an important factor in the 2016 election. IF Presidential Approval Rating THEN Democrats Chance of Winning 41% 23% Obama Job Approval Today*: 48% 46% 37% 50% 50% *Real Clear Politics average as of April 28, 2016. SLIDE 14
The percentage of white voters has been dropping over the last six presidential elections. Whites 87% 83% 81% 77% 74% 72% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 SLIDE 15
Democrats start with the big blue wall. electoral votes from 18 states + District of Columbia won by Democratic presidential candidate the last 6 elections in a row only need to win of the EVs in toss-up states. Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV SLIDE 16
Democrats have built margins in key counties in swing states. Statewide Margins v. True Blue Counties Margins FL Statewide Margin Miami-Dade County Margin PA Statewide Margin Philadelphia County Margin 2000 +537 +39,275 +204,840 +348,223 2012 +74,309 +208,459 +309,840 +492,339 SLIDE 17
Two unique front runners help define this race. SLIDE 18
More people say they know a lot about Clinton or Trump compared to President Obama in 2012! 2008 Obama 22% 2012 Obama 43% 2016 Trump 48% 2016 Clinton 56% How much do you feel that you know about and what (he/she) stands for know a lot, know a fair amount, know just some, or know very little? SLIDE 19
Looking Ahead to the General Election SLIDE 20
Feelings on the Presidential Election: General Election Voters SLIDE 21
Election Year There is simply no precedent for the high negative ratings for both potential nominees. GOP Candidate % Negative DEM Candidate % Negative 2016 Trump 65% H. Clinton 56% 2012 Romney 44% Obama 43% 2008 McCain 39% Obama 34% 2004 Bush 43 44% Kerry 43% 2000 Bush 43 30% Gore 37% 1996 Dole 38% B. Clinton 33% 1992 Bush 41 46% B. Clinton 37% SLIDE 22
There has been no other recent presidential campaign where a majority of voters are voting against both candidates rather than voting for the candidate of their choice. Republicans - Voting Against Democrats Voting Against 2016 56% 56% 2012 37% 20% 2008 32% 19% 2004 20% 50% 2000 29% 31% 1996 48% 29% 1992 38% 39% 1988 38% 46% 1984 18% 43% 1980 44% 38% * Different language variations shown SLIDE 23
Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 Difference 2012 Difference TOTAL 39% 50% +11% +4% Men 46% 43% +3% +7% Women 33% 56% +23% +11% White Men 54% 34% +20% +27% White Women 41% 48% +7% +14% SLIDE 24
Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 Difference 2012 Difference TOTAL 39% 50% +11% +4% Whites 47% 41% +6% +20% African Americans 9% 86% +77% +87% Latinos 22% 70% +48% +44% Republicans 72% 13% +59% +87% Independents 40% 40% +0% +5% Democrats 9% 87% +78% +85% SLIDE 25
Impact on US House and Senate Campaigns SLIDE 26
Republicans are a bit more vulnerable at the House level. Toss Up/Lean House Seats GOP Lean Or Toss Up Seats DEM Lean or Toss Up Seats QUARTER GOP Lean or Toss Up Seats DEM Lean or Toss Up Seats QUARTER Source: The Cook Political Report SLIDE 27
Clinton leads Trump in most battleground Senate states. State Trump Deficit vs. Clinton Presidential Ad Spending 2012 ($896m) New Hampshire -19 $34 million Illinois -18 -- Pennsylvania -15 $31 million Wisconsin -12 $39 million Florida -7 $173 million Nevada -6 $55 million North Carolina -6 $97 million Ohio -5 $150 million Colorado No Recent Data $73 million Chart based on work done by Doug Sosnik. Source: Polls (270towin), The Washington Post, and FairVote.org SLIDE 28
Ticket-splitting voting is disappearing in Senate campaigns. Ticket-Splitting Voting Different White House and Senate Result by Party 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 52% 31% 29% 29% 21% 20% 19% Source: Ticket Splitting (Sabato, UVA Center for Politics) SLIDE 29
Questions? SLIDE 30
Bill McInturff bill@pos.org Office: (703) 836-7655 SLIDE 31