RELEASE INFORMATION OR KEN DAUTRICR RELEASE: SIJEP 46-1 (EP 96-1) CONTACT: JANICE BALLOU EMBARGOED NOT FOR RELEASE UNTIL: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1993 ItII1X3ERS Eaglelon Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 fle 5TAT bt4tvpsflv cc NPN JEPSY Audio is available after 8:00 A,M. on Monday, November I, 1993, from (908) 932-3605 (Rutgers Feature Phone). ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: -more- However, there are signs that many New Jerseyans are still in the process of selecting a candidate to types of voters describe who they are going to vote for, the margin between the candidates chaiges. percent, and the independent candidates receive 2 percent of the vote. With just a few days left before the election, voters favor the incumbent Jim Florio over vote for. Since a poll taken in mid-october Florio s support has declined 4 percentage points and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 8 to 13 percent In addition, when different and allocating voters who initially say they are undecided -- Florlo has 53 percent, Whitman has 45 Looking at the vote choice among those voters who have the highest probability of voting the challenger Christine Todd Whitman by a margin of 48 to 39 percent among likely voters. FLORIO MAiNTAINS LEAD MARGIN OF ERROR OF ABOUT ±- THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF ACWALLy VOTING ON ELEaION DAY AND HAVE AN ESTIMATED WILL BE SPECIFICALLY NOTED ARE REPORTED FOR 504 PROBABLE VOTERS LIKELY VOTERS WHO HAVE DEFINITELY GOING TO VOTE WITH A MARGIN OF ERROR OF ± 3.5%. IN ADDITION, SOME RESULTS THAT WHO REPORT THEY ARE CURRENTLY REGISTERED TO VOTE AND SAY THAT THEY ARE PROBABLY OR ALL OF THE PERCENTAGES IN THIS RELEASE ARE BASED ON 801 LIKELY VOTERS NEW JERSEY RESIDENTS Star-Ledger. We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to The Srar-Ledger/Eagleton Poll, A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Sunday s atue %tar-ilebger/eaglet0n POLL 10131/93
percent of the voters are firm in their choice for Governor while 27 percent have not firmed up 801 likely voters between October 27 and 30. The po The latest Star-LedgerfEagleton Poll was conducted by telephone with a random sample of 11 also shows that even at this late date 72 - more - and 15 percent who are undecided. Florio leads among independent voters with 47 percent compared to 39 percent who pick Whitman percent of the Democrats supporting Florio and 75 percent of the Republicans choosing Whitman. Among likely voters, Florio and Whitman receive about the same partisan support, with 75 independent candidates. The poli also estimated the vote choice of those who have the highest probability of voting select Florio, 45 percent choose Whitman, and 2 percent say they will vote for one of the 17 in the election assuming turnout is about 56 percent. Among these probable voters 53 percent While the support for Whitman remains the same as in a mid-october poll, those who say they will vote for Florio declined from 52 to 48 percent and undecided voters increased from 8 to 13 to 39 percent who prefer Christine Todd Whitman, and 13 percent who are undecided. Among likely voters, Governor Jim Florio currently gets 48 percent of the votes compared percentage points. VOTE CHOICE the final days of the campaign. At this time women voters and New Jerseyans who view the voters the candidates need to appeal to in the final days before the election. voters--as we have seen in past elections--will be making their decisions about who to vote for in themselves as independents are the most likely to be uncertain or to switch candidates. So these are some of the voters still ftizzy about how they will actually vote on election day. Many New Jersey Poll Director Janice BaIlou commented, What we have is a snapshot of the electorate with candidates. their choice and 2 percent say they are going to vote for one of the seventeen independent EP96-1 (SL/EP46-I) Page 2 C
Women are more likely to say they will vote for Florio (51%) than Whitman (35%). However, At this time, males are just about as likely to vote for Florio (45%) as Whitman (43%). - more - and 36 percent say they are voting for her. Among those who have selected a candidate to vote for, the majority (51%) percent say that they are voting more for one candidate than against the other. Sixty-four percent of the Florio supporters say that they are voting for him, and 31 percent say they are voting against Whitman. Support for Whitman is the opposite with 59 percent saying their vote for her is more against Florio 45 percent. a lot of interest in the election. Florio has the support of 47 percent of this group and Whitman has There is only a 2 percentage point difference between the among those who say they have those 65 years old or older he leads 56 to 31 percent. age groups. Among those who are 50 to 64 years old his margin is 50 to 34 percent and among with Whitman at 46 percent and Florio at 45 percent. Florio is preferred over Whitman in the older old voters 45 to 41 percent. The candidates are about even among the 30 to 49 year old age group of this change resulting in a decline in the support for Florio. Whitman leads among 18 to 29 year In almost all age groups, the percentage of undecided voters has also increased with most support for Whitman among Republican women and a 9 percentage point decrease in support for undecided voters in this group. support for Florio. The largest change among women voters is a 17 percentage point increase in moved into the group of undecided voters. Since mid-october there has been a 10 percentage point Since the mid-october poll, there has been a 10 percentage point decrease in women s Florio among Democratic women. The Democratic women have not gone to Whitman, they have women are also somewhat more likely than men to be undecided by a margin of 14 to 11 percent. decline in support for Whitman among independent women voters and a similar increase in the EP96-1 (SLIEP46-I) Page 3
that on Election Day they will vote for him even though they do not think he deserves re-election. choice for Governor, just 45 percent say that he deserves to be re-elected. However, 7 percent say Although Jim Florio currently leads his opponent Christine Todd Whitman as the voter s - more - While neither candidate has a majority of voters who hold a favorable impression of them, Whitman has a favorable rating from 38 percent of likely voters, 36 percent give her unfavorable ratings and 26 percent do not have an opinion of the Republican challenger. better job and 30 percent who feel this way about Whitman. say it does not make a difference who is elected compared to 32 percent who say Florio will do a candidate will do a better job of improving economic conditions in New Jersey, the plurality (3 8%) of addressing the issue they feel is most important to them. However, when voters consider which Florio, 40 percent unfavorable, and 14 percent do not have an impression of the incumbent. More likely voters feel that Florio (49%) rather than Whitman (36%) will do a better job Florio is favored by more voters than Whitman. Forty-five percent have favorable impressions of IMPRESSIONS OF THE CANDIDATES Also, while 72 percent of the likely voters are firm in their support for either Whitman (32%) or Florio (40%), 27 percent are uncertain about their choice or remain undecided. that choose Whitman feel this way. candidate. In addition, 16 percent of the voters who select a candidate say they might change their Fifteen percent of the Florio supporters say they might change their minds and 18 percent of those Even at this point in the election 13 percent of the voters say they have not decided on a mind before election day. The percentage of possible switchers is about equal for both candidates. THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE Day. 9 percent are uncertain about what they will do as an alternative to voting for Florio on Election In addition, 35 percent will vote for Whitman, 4 percent will vote for an independent candidate, and EP96-1 (SLIEP46-l) Page 4
On an overall statewide basis, more likely voters say they will vote for Democrats (41%) THE LEGISLATWE ELECTION AND RECALL REFERENDUM Copyright, October 31, 1993, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledger. -30- for it, and among those who know some about it support is at 63 percent. referendum. However, 42 percent say they will vote for it, 12 percent against it, and 44 percent do know the most about it. Among those who know a lot about the referendum 77 percent will vote not know how they will vote. Support for the referendum increases among those who say they There will also be a referendum on the ballot which, if approved, would allow New Jersey citizens to recall their elected officials. Most voters (56%) have not heard about the recall legislative races for State Assembly 38 percent say they will vote for Democratic candidates, 40 percent for Republicans, and 22 percent don t know. than Republicans (37%) in Tuesday s State Senate races with 23 percent undecided. In the EP96-I (SL/EP46-1) Page 5
The latest Star-LedgerlEagleton Poll was conducted between October 27 and 30, 1993, when a random sample BACKGROUND MEMO RELEASE SL/EP46-I (EP96-l), SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1993 of 801 likely voters in New Jersey, 18 years and older, was interviewed by telephone. These are people who RLirc1ER Eogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901. 4..s 908/828-2210 -4 STATE UNtRfl Cf NB&.ERV --Likely Voters 9 29 36 24 2 100 (633) June, 1993 September, 1993 --Likely Voters 7 34 38 19 2 100 (591) --Likely Voters 5 32 30 31 I 99 (601) October, 1993 --Democrat 15 45 28 9 2 99 (258) --Republican -- 13 42 42 3 100 (204) Party ID --Independent.. 4 32 32 31 I 100 (318) Likely Voters 7% 31% 34% 26% 2% 100% (801) Excellent Good Fair Poor Know Total jffi Only Don t How would you rate the job Jim Florio is doing as Governor--excellent, good, only fair, or poor? [Q.21 BE SPECIFICALLY NOTED ARE REPORTED FOR 504 PROBABLE VOTERS LIKELY VOTERS WHO HAVE AN ESTIMATED MARGIN OF ERROR OF ±35 PERCENT. IN ADDITION, SOME RESULTS THAT WILL THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF ACTUALLY VOTING ON ELECTION DAY AND HAVE AN ESTIMATED NOTE: FOR THIS RELEASE THE FINDINGS ON THE ELECTION ARE BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS AND HAVE MARGIN OF ERROR OF ±4.50/. population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of difference in results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a scientific sample taken from that question on the actual questionnaire is in brackets. sample size are subject to a sampling error of about ±3.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. In addition, there is information for 504 probable voters voting on Election Day. The estimated margin of error for this group is ±4.5%. Sampling error is the probable public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are presented below. The location of each likely voters who have the greatest probability of are registered to vote and say they will probably or definitely vote on Election Day. Figures based on this GEhe êtar-tlcbger/eagleton POLL U
Lot Some Little At All Know Total A A None Don t How much interest do you have in this election--a lot, some, a little, or none at all? [Q.5} October, 1993 --Likely Voters 64 27 7 2 1 101 (633) June, 1993 --Likely Voters 57 28 12 2 -- 99 (601) --Likely Voters 55 33 10 2 -- 100 (591) September, 1993 whitman 64 24 10 1 1 100 (308) --Independent 57 32 9 2 1 101 (318) --Republican 55 32 II I -- 99 (204) --Florio 55 36 7 2 1 101 (378) --Democrat 56 33 10 I I 101 (258) --Undecided 34 46 20 I 101 (101) Likely Voters S6% 32% 10% 1% 1% 100% (801) Party ID EP96-1 (SLfEP96-1) -2 -
No (her/bim)? Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)? [Q.6, Q.7] impression of (Christine Todd Whitman/Jim Florio) favorable or unfavorable, or don t you really have an opinion about The Republican/Democratic candidate for Governor is (Christine Todd Whitman/Jim Florio). Is your general * Doesn t know candidate response has not been calculated for this poll. FLORSO--Likely Voters 18 27 19 19 -- 17 100 (633) WHITMAN--Likely Voters 10 21 Il 7 6 46 101 (633) June, 1993 WHITMAN--Likely Voters 8 22 16 7 5 43 100 (590) FLORIO--Likely Voters IS 30 18 18 I 18 100 (590) September, 1993 WHITMAN--Likely Voters 12 21 18 18 5 28 102 (600) FLORJO--Likely Voters 17 28 17 23 -- 16 101 (600) October, 1993 --Republican 22 40 9 8 21 100 (204) --Democrat 34 36 10 5 -- 14 99 (258) --RepubLican 4 14 24 44 -- 14 100 (204) FLORTO Likely Voters 17 / 28 17 23 14 99 (801) Democrat 5 14 21 24 -- 36 100 (258) Parry ID WHITMAN Likely Voters 12% 26% 18% 18% % 26% 100% (801) --Independent II 26 22 21 -- 20 100 (318) Parry ID --Independent 12 32 18 26 -- 12 100 (318) Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Candidate Know Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Know Don L Doesn t Opinionl EP96-1 (SL/EP96- I) - 3 -
Whitman Undecided Florio Total EP96-l (SLIEP96-l) -4- ( Gender and Parry Continued on following page. il --Male independent 44 13 42 99 (179) --Female Republican 77 7 16 100 (98) --Male Democrat 13 8 79 100 (98) --Female Democrat 13 13 73 99 (157) --Male Republican 74 10 16 100 (104) Female independent 31 17 52 100 (130) South 36 15 50 101 (210) --Central 41 12 47 100 (200) North 40 12 48 100 (377) Region A little/none 40 23 38 101 (88) --Some 29 18 53 100 (257) --Alot 45 8 47 100 (437) Interest in the election --ósorover 31 13 56 100 (168) 50-64 34 15 50 99 (207) --30-49 46 9 45 100 (294) 18-29 45 15 41 101 (103) dg Female 35 14 51 100 (394) Male 43 Il 45 99 (393) --Democrat 13 11 75 99 (255) --Independent 39 15 47 101 (309) --Republican 75 8 16 99 (202) Gender Parry ID --Probable Voters 40 10 50 100 (497) Likely Voters 39% 13% 48% 100% (787) ) Todd Whitman, the Republican, or Jim Florio, the Democrat? [Q.81 Suppose the election for Governor was held today and you had to choose right now would you vote for Christine
SF96-I (SIJEP96-1) [Q.8 continued] October, 1993 --Likely Voters - 5 - Whitman Undecided Florjo Total 40% 8% 52% 100% (577) C Party ID --Democrat 14 6 --Independent 99 (203) 46 9 45 --Republican 100 (204) 70 7 23 100 (152) Gender --Male --Female 49 8 43 100 (295) 31 8 61 100 (282) --18-29 45 8 47 --30-49 100 (83) 43 8 49 --50-64 100 (229) 43 5 51 --ó5orover 99 (136) 30 9 61 100 (121) Interest in the elect/on --Alot 44 6 50 --Some 100 (331) 37 9 54 100 --A little/none (161) 32 12 56 100 (84) Type of Place --Center city 20 12 67 99 (49) --Cityandoldsuburbs 38 7 55 100 (III) --New suburbs 43 8 49 100 (364) --Rural 45 2 53 100 (53) Region --North 37 9 54 100 (265) --Central 44 4 52 100 (159) --South 41 10 49 100 (153) Gender and Pam --Male Democrat 18 6 76 100 (78) --Female Democrat 12 6 82 100 (125) --Male independent 49 II 40 100 (118) --Female independent 41 7 52 100 (86) --Male Republican 76 4 20 100 (92) --Female Republican 60 12 28 100 (60) September, 1993 --Likely Voters 38 15 47 100 (584) June, 1993 Likely Voters 43 9 48 100 (617)
Undecided voters were asked at this moment do you lean more towards Whitman, or more towards Florio? said they might change. Eight-five percent of Florio voters were km while 15 percent said they might switch. change you mind before election day? [Q.9a] Of the Whitman voters 82 percent said they were sure and 18 percent Those choosing either Whitman or Florio were asked if they were very sure about voting for her/him, or might you Figure calculates to 103 due to rounding. * Figure has been adjusted for rounding purposes. FLORIO: 53% WHITMAN: 45% INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE: 2% PROBABLE VOTERS ASSUMING A 56% VOTER TURNOUT WAS: AS OF SATURDAY, OCToBER 30, WITH UNDECIDED VOTERS ALLOCATED, THE VOTE AMONG 504 RepubLican 55 13 I 5 1 7 15 3 100 (157) Likely Voters 28 14 1 5 3 19 29 2 101 (627) June, 1993 Patti ID --Democrat 8 6 2 3 1 17 60 2 99 (207) --Likely Voters 26 * 12 3 9 3 21 26 1 101 (590) --Likely Voters 28 * 12 2 4 2 14 38 3 103 1* (592) September, 1993 --Independent 29 15 I 5 3 13 31 2 99 (209) October, 1993 --Democrat 9 4 2 6 3 8 66 1 99 (258) --Independent 31 6 4 6 4 8 37 3 99 (318) --Republican 63 II 3 2 2 3 13 I 98 (204) --Probable Voters 35 5 3 4 3 5 45 1 101 (504) Likely Voters 32% 7% 3% 6% 4% 7% 40% 2% 101% (801) Party ID Ekrn Soft Lean Undecided Lean Soft Finn Other Total jjj WHITMAN FLORIO With the leaners allocated, and with firmness of preference taken into account, voters displayed the following pattem: 25 percent leaned to Whitman, 30 percent to Florio and the remainder did not state a preference. [Q.l0] EP96-1 (SL/EP96-1) - 6 -
46 Few Couple Month AU Don t Last Last Last Knew When did you decide who you would vote for in the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or did you know all along? [Q.9b] EP96-l (SLJEP96-l) - 7 - C? --October, 1993 5 12 24 54 4 99 (601) --September, 4 1993 18 26. 6 100 (590) --Democrat 3 10 14 69 3 99 (258) --Republican 2 5 17 75 1 100 (204) C Independent 3 8 16 72 1 100 (318) Parr, ID Likely Voters 3% 8% 16% 71% 2% 100% (801) Likely Likely Likely Likely Know Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All Don t for one of these candidates--very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely? [Q.12] There are independent candidates running for governor who will also be on the ballot. How likely is it you migbt vote --Whitman 36 59 5 100 (308) --Florio 64 31 5 100 (378) Likely Voters 51% 44% 5% 100% (741) Undecided 45 42 100 (55) For Against Know Total More More Don t Would you say you re voting more for (candidate of choice) or more against the other candidate? [Q.l Ia] --Last few days 48% 52% 100% (63) --Last couple of weeks 45 55 100 (112) --Last month or two 39 61 100 (179) When decided who to vote for Knew all along 48 52 100 (316) Whitman Florio Total CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR --Florio 9 16 29 43 3 100 (378) --Whitman 10 16 23 50 2 101 (308) Likely Voters 9% 26% 46% 2% 99% (686) of Weeks or Two Along Know Total
Makes No Don t F!orio Whitman Neither Difference Know Total Florio or Whitman, do you think will do a better job of addressing that issue? Q. I 3J Thinking about the issue you feel is most important that the next Governor will have to handle which candidate, --Likely Voters 43 47 10 100 (633) October, 1993 --Likely Voters 44 45 11 100 (589) June, 1993 --Likely Voters 47 46 7 100 (601) September, 1993 --Democrat 73 19 8 100 (258) --Whitman 3 93 5 101 (308) --Undecided 31 3! 39 101 (101) --Florlo 84 12 3 99 (378) --Republican 15 79 6 100 (204) --Independent 41 50 9 100 (318) Party ID Yes, No, Does Not Likely Voters 45% 47% 9% 101% (801) Re-election Re-election Depends Total ffl Deserves Deserve Don t Know! Do you think Jim Florio deserves to be re-elected to a second term as governor, at not? [Q.15A] Likely Voters 26 23 51 100 (589) --Undecided 16 12 72 100 (101) --Florio 63 1 35 99 (378) October, 1993 Jim Floria or Christine Todd Whitman, or don t you think it makes much difference? (Q.14} Which candidate for Governor do you think would do a better job of improving economic conditions in New Jersey No Difference! Florio Whitman Don t Know Total --Undecided 31 15 15 3 37 101 (lot) --Likely Voters 32% 30% 38% 100% (801) --Florio 93 I I -- 4 99 (378) --Whitman 3 87 4 1 6 101 (308) --Whitman I 73 27 101 (308) Likely Voters 49% 36% 4% 1% 9% 99% (801) 8 - EP96-1 (SLIEP96-l) -
Christie And Not Independent For Don t What do you think you will do on Election Day? (Q15b1 Vote For Stay Home Of The Vote Other/ Vote For One AMONG THQSE WHO THINK FLOPJO SHOULD NOT BE RE-ELECTED. --Likely Voters 35 35 30 100 (590) September, 1993 Probable Voters 40 39 21 100 (504) --Democrat 80 6 14 100 (258) --Republican 7 81 12 100 (204) --Independent 31 34 36 101 (318) Party Identification Likely Voters 41% 37% 23% 101% (801) Democrat Republican Don t Know Total the election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for State Senate from your district? [Q.161 Other/ In November there will be an election for the representative from your district in the State Senate and Assembly. If --Florio 84 12 -- I 3 -- 100 (378) --Undediced 31 6 5 8 3 48 101 (101) --Whitman 3 90 4 4 101 (308) Likely Voters 45% 7% 35% 4% 9% 100%(801) Re-election Other Choices Whitman Candidate Won t Vow Don t Know Total Deserves Doesn t Like Vote For Independent Stay Home/ Other/ Florio For Florio Will For An Will Vote Will Vote Combined Florio re-elect [Q. I 5a] and what will do on Election Day [Q.l 5bJ? --Florio 2 5 75 18 100 (61) --Undecided 7 4 11 9 68 99 (70) --Whitman 92 4 4 100 (300) Likely Voters 64% 1% 7% 12% 17% 101% (444) Whitman Vote Candidate Florlo Know Total EP96-l (SLIEP96-1) - 9-
And, if the election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidates for State Democrat Republican Other Know Total fjj Don t Assembly? [Q.17] c --Some 63 17 21 101 (234) Notmuch 26 8 3 64 101 (452) --Alot 77 21 2 100 (92) Knowledge of Recall Likely Voters 42% 12% 1% 44% 99% (801) Won t Don t For Against Vote Know Total jfl And, do you think you will vote for or against this referendum? [Q.lSb] --Florio 10 29 59 2 100 (378) --Whitman 16 33 48 3 100 (308) Undecided 4 22 71 3 100 (101) Vote Choke Likely Voters 11% 30% 56% 2% 99% (801) Lot Some Much Know Total A Not Don t read or heard about the recall referendum a lot, some or not much? [Q.18a1 This year on the ballot there is a referendum which will allow for the recall of elected officials. How much have you --Likely Voters 36 34 1 29 100 (590) September, 1993 --Independent 27 37 1 35 100 (318) Party Identification Probable Voters 37 43 1 19 100 (504) --Democrat 78 9 -- 13 100 (258) Likely Voters 38% 40% 1% 22% 101% (801) Republican 3 86 -- 10 99 (204) EP96-1 (SL1EP96-1) - to-
Names Will Some Other Not Don t for? [Q.25] Now, pretend that it is Election Day and you are about to pull the lever to vote for Governor, who are you voting --Whitman 2 93 1 -- 5. 101 (308) --Undecided 24 10 1 63 100 (101) --Florio 94 1 1 4 100 (378) Probable Voters 50 39 2 9 100 (504) --Likely Voters 48% 37% 3% % 12% I00% (801) Florlo Whitman Candidate Vote Know Total Qyj EP96-l (SLJEP96-1) - 11 - (.-.