Race, Immigration and America s s Changing Electorate William H. Frey The Brookings Institution
Race, Immigration and America's Changing Electorate Race-Ethnicity and Eligible Voter Growth Demographic and Voter Profiles Immigration as an Issue Race and Political Geography Source: William H. Frey
Growth in US Minority Populations, 2000-8 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 32.4 30.1 8.9 2 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census estimates * Non Hispanics
Race-Ethnic Structure of US Population 2000-2016 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 69 67 65 63 62 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population: Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* 77% 22% 2% 30% 66% 4% 39% 27% 34% 50% 23% 27% Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis of 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
EVs: Percent Registered and Voting 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75 67 69 60 58 52 47 44 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Percent Registering Percent Voting Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
US Population Total, Eligible Voters, Likely Voters Population Eligible Voters Voters 2% 2% 2% 6% 9% 3% 2% 15% 5% 11% 12% 12% 66% 74% 78% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
Hispanic Shares --- State Population, Voters States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Florida Colorado New York New Jersey Illinois 6 8 8 18 18 14 10 12 19 17 9 16 13 23 22 30 32 36 36 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 Voters Population Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS
Education of Eligible Voters: Race-Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29.2 16.3 14.3 45.3 10.2 17.9 26.5 10.9 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* LT HS HS grad Some Coll Coll Grad Source: William H. Frey 2007 CPS
Hispanic Education: Eligible Voters vs. Adult Non Citizens 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 14.3 26.5 Eligible Voters 6.4 56.8 Adult Non Citizens LT HS HS grad Some Coll Coll Grad Source: William H. Frey 2007 CPS
Party Affiliation: Race-Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4 14 13 34 64 24 30 38 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Democrat Lean Democrat Independent Lean Republican Republican Source: William H. Frey 2006 GSS
Political Ideology: Race-Ethnicity 100% 12 14 13 90% 23 80% 11 17 16 70% 15 60% 44 50% 38 42 40% 38 30% 11 20% 11 14 13 10% 22 12 16 17 0% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Liberal Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly Conservative Extremely Conservative Source: William H. Frey analysis of 2006 GSS * Non Hispanics
Important Election Issues Likely Voters Economy & Jobs 27.1 Health Care 16.5 War in Iraq Illegal Immigration 13.4 15.7 Terrorism- Security 10.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Important Election Issues - Whites Economy & Jobs 25.5 Health Care 15.3 War in Iraq Illegal Immigration Terrorism- Security 11.9 14.5 15.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Important Election Issues - Blacks Economy & Jobs 35 Health Care 22.6 War in Iraq 19.5 Illegal Immigration Terrorism- Security 4.6 0 10 20 30 40 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Important Election Issues - Hispanics Economy & Jobs 25.7 Health Care 22.9 War in Iraq 25.1 Illegal Immigration 12.1 Terrorism- Security 6.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Feel Strongly- Immigration Good for America Likely Voters Whites* 43 Blacks* 21 Hispanic 58 White Coll grad 51 White Some Coll 41 White HS or Less 32 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Democracy Core Survey, 2007
Illegal Immigration- A Very Big Problem Likely Voters Whites* 50 Blacks* Hispanic 32 31 White Coll grad 38 White Some Coll 52 White HS or Less 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Immigrant Magnet and Growth States Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Magnet NonMagnet, High Immigrant Growth NonMagnet, Moderate Immigrant Growth
Immigration- A Very Big Problem White Likely Voters for State Groupings 80 70 60 50 40 48 55 48 58 70 53 43 47 43 30 20 10 0 All Whites HS or less Some College+ Immigrant Magnet NonMagnet High Growth Non Magnet Moderate Growth Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Surrey, 2008
Immigration- A Very Big Problem White Likely Voters for Urban-Suburban Areas 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 54 51 53 42 39 HS or less Some College+ City Suburb Small Town Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
Hispanic Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share 10-20 % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
Asian Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share 10-20 % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
Black Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share 10-20 % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
White Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 85 % Share 70-85 % Share 60-70 % Share LT 60 % Share
Red, Blue and Purple States Source: William H. Frey analysis Blue Red Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple
Eligible Voter Profiles of Red-Blue-Purple State Groupings Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 2.5 Solid Blue Solid Red 1.3 2.5 11.1 9.3 74.6 3.0 8.9 84.2 13.9 11.4 7.1 66.4 15.7 7.3 73.6 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
EV Growth 2000-7 by Race-Ethnicity Fast Growing and Slow Growing Purple States 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 12.1 6.3 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Fast Growing Purple 4.3 2.6 Slow Growing Purple Asians and Others* Hispanics Blacks* Whites* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
EV Growth, 2000-7 by Race-Ethnicity Five Fast Growing Purple States 30.0 25.0 20.0 26.8 14.5 19.5 15.0 10.0 5.0 8.8 13.0 12.1 10.2 5.2 8.9 3.1 0.0 Nevada Arizona Colorado Florida New Mexico Asians and Others* Hispanics Blacks* Whites* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
Eligible Voters in Demographic Groups: FG and SG Purple States Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 16% 40% 25% 49% 15% 20% 15% 20% Minorities Whites Age 65+ White Wkg Age: Coll grad White Wkg Age: Not Col grad Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources
Eligible Voters in Demographic Groups Arizona and Pennsylvania Arizona Pennsylvania 13% 39% 29% 50% 17% 19% 13% 20% Minorities Whites Age 65+ White Wkg Age: Coll grad White Wkg Age: Not Col grad Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources
Minority Shares: Voters of All Ages vs. Age 18-29 EVs New Mexico All Voters 18-29 Evs 44 57 New York Arizona California All Voters 18-29 Evs All Voters 18-29 Evs All Voters 18-29 Evs 23 26 36 42 41 56 Florida All Voters 18-29 Evs 25 39 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Hispanics Asians* Blacks* OtherNonwhites* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics