March 13, 2006 August 20, 2008 National Public Radio The Campaign on the Eve of the Conventions August 21, 2008 1,124 Likely Voters Presidential Battleground
States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states Total State List Alaska Colorado Florida Georgia Indiana Iowa Michigan Missouri Minnesota Montana Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin BLUE STATES Deep Blue Minnesota Wisconsin Light Blue Michigan New Hampshire Pennsylvania RED STATES Deep Red Alaska Georgia Indiana Montana North Carolina North Dakota Light Red Colorado Florida Iowa Missouri Nevada New Mexico Ohio Virginia
Change dominates battleground too
Presidential battleground voters pessimistic about direction of nation Generally speaking, do you think things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? -56 Right Direction Wrong Track 74 18 Right Direction Wrong Track
Similar levels of interest by candidate choice As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year s elections. Very Interested (10) 73 74 74 Total Obama Voters McCain Voters
Similar levels of interest by party As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year s elections. Very Interested (10) 75 67 76 Democrats Independents Republicans
But Democrats more enthusiastic about the election In thinking about the presidential election that will be held this November, compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual or less enthusiastic? More Enthusiastic Less Enthusiastic +52 +13 +16 69 47 51 34 35 17 More Enthusiastic Democrats Less Enthusiastic More Enthusiastic Less Enthusiastic Independents More Enthusiastic Republicans Less Enthusiastic
Approval of Bush low Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove -25 60 35 Approve Disapprove
Even in Deep Red states Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove -25-14 60 55 35 41 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Total Sample Deep Red States* *Note: These states are Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota.
The Race
Match-up very close in presidential battleground states Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Barack Obama Lean John McCain Libertarian Bob Barr Democrat John Kerry Republican George Bush +1-5 46 45 51 44 46 42 2 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Total Voters Kerry 2004 Vote* Bush *Note: Represents the actual 2004 vote in these presidential battleground states.
Obama leading in blue states, slightly ahead in light red states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Obama Lean Obama McCain Lean McCain Nader Lean Nader Barr Lean Barr 49 44 40 +7 47 34 0 1 5 0 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Blue States Light Blue States 41 40 42 53 49-12 50 44 0 2 2 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Red States Light Red States 41 46 43 41 +9 +3
McCain holds slight leads among independents If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Libertarian Bob Barr Independent Ralph Nader Lean Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Independent Ralph Nader 85 81 +76-3 -81 88 84 40 38 43 39 9 1 3 3 7 0 1 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans
Obama holding Democratic states, tied in Bush states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Obama Republican John McCain Lean McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Bob Barr 50 46 41 37 43 44 +9 +6 48 42 43 1 1 1 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr 45 3 0 3 0 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr States won by Kerry 2004 38 States won by Gore 2000-2 -2 45 47 45 47 States won by Bush 2004 States won by Bush 2000 44
Importance of vice presidential picks How important will Senator Barack Obama s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? How important will Senator John McCain s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? Very important Somewhat important Not at all important Not very important 52 +5 47 48-4 52 26 33 34 23 Important Not Important Important Not Important Obama s Choice McCain s Choice
The candidates and campaigns
The personal qualities of the candidates Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Bringing right kind of change 37 21 36 52 +15 Being on your side 41 24 31 49 +8 Restoring respect for America in the world 43 27 32 47 +4 Independent 42 21 26 46 +4 Will work across party lines 43 24 23 42-1 Has what it takes to be president 51 36 25 40-11 Positive Strong leader 50 34 23 40-10 Negative Too risky 38 24 34 51 +13 Saying what people want to hear, not what he believes in 34 20 34 50 +16 Out of touch 44 23 22 39-5 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Regression analysis: personal characteristics as vote predictors Characteristics that drive the vote: Odds Ratio On your side 1.94 Has what it takes to be president 1.89 Strong leader 1.58 Bring the right kind of change 1.51 Restore respect for America 1.40 Will work across party lines 1.32 Too risky.79 Page 18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
The candidates and the issues Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these phrases, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Has the better approach to the economy 42 23 29 47 +5 Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis and reduce gas prices 42 28 27 45 +3 Has the better approach on taxes 45 32 25 43-2 Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq 52 42 25 42-10 Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 45 29 23 42-3 Has the better approach to handle the situation in Afghanistan 54 40 22 37-17 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Regression analysis: issues as vote predictors Issues that drive the vote: Odds Ratio Has the better approach to the economy 1.56 Has the better approach to handle the situation 1.55 in Afghanistan Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.39 Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.33 and reduce gas prices Has the better approach on taxes 1.13 Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq 1.46 Page 20 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Character of the two candidates Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these phrases, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Seeing more on television about him 18 8 39 60 +42 Hearing or receiving more information about his campaign 29 13 28 54 +25 Has flip-flopped on the issues 27 14 26 49 +22 Seeing more ads from his campaign 34 14 22 44 +10 Too negative in his campaign 51 28 14 27-24 75 50 25 0 25 50 75
Campaign Advertising
Many have seen campaign ads Now let me ask you something a little bit different. Have you seen any advertisements from the campaign of Barack Obama/John McCain over the last couple of weeks? Yes No +56 +55 78 77 22 22 Obama Campaign Ads McCain Campaign Ads
Many have seen ads that are negative about Barack Obama Of those ads that you have seen on television from either John McCain or Barack Obama, please tell me, which of the following phrases describes the time of ads you have seen. You may choose as many of the following phrases as you feel apply. Ads that are negative about Barack Obama 65 Ads that are positive about Barack Obama 64 Ads that are positive about John McCain 60 Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of Barack Obama 59 Ads that are negative about John McCain 48 Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of John McCain 46 0 25 50 75 *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates.
Advertisements: open-ended responses And now, of those ads that you have seen, what specifically do you recall seeing? Obama Negatives Celebrity Inexperience Raise taxes 8 4 17 Group Net 28 McCain negative/critical of Obama 15 Campaign Tone Both negative/distorting truth/misleading 7 25 Obama negative/critical of McCain 5 Energy policy/alt. energy 10 Econ/plan for economy 5 General Issues Taxes/raising/cutting taxes 4 20 War/future war plan 4 Gas/fuel costs, handling prices 4 Obama Positives Hopeful/upbeat/intelligent Will bring change 6 7 13 McCain Positive: Patriotism/military service/pow Positive: Experienced Negative: Same as Bush *Note: Asked of those responding they have seen ads. Group net represents total who recalled ads of this category including some not listed on the chart because of small incidences. 2 2 5 0 10 20 10
Ad effect varies by partisanship, independents split Overall, of the ads you ve seen, are they leading you more toward supporting Barack Obama or more toward supporting John McCain? Obama McCain +68-2 -59 76 69 30 32 8 10 More toward supporting Obama More toward supporting McCain More toward supporting Obama More toward supporting McCain More toward supporting Obama Democrats Independents Republicans More toward supporting McCain *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates.
Obama ahead in states where both campaigns have ads Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Republican John McCain Lean Democrat Barack Obama Independent Ralph Nader Republican John McCain Lean Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Libertarian Bob Barr +7 49 46 42 39 3 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr
New and old media
Traditional mediums from which people receive campaign information Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Received Percent Yes information through watching news Received information through watching news stories on television Received information through watching advertisements on television Received information through hearing news stories on the radio Received information through hearing advertisements on the radio Received printed materials in the mail from campaigns or another political organization Received phone calls from the campaigns or other political organizations Spoken with someone who came to your door from campaign or political org 8 36 43 54 66 79 87 0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Electronic ways that people receive campaign information Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Yes, Percent have Yes received information through this Visited a campaign or candidate-sponsored website 26 Received "chain emails" about Barack Obama 24 Watched a campaign commercial on-line 22 Watched viral videos online from organizations other than the campaigns or new outlets. Received e-mails from campaigns or organizations 17 18 Visited a political blog online 15 Received "chain emails" about John McCain Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or personal digital assistant 8 8 0 15 30
Online methods by age group Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Percent Yes Visited a campaign or candidate sponsored website Under 40 40-64 Seniors 13 22 40 Received chain mails about Barack Obama Under 40 40-64 Seniors 16 20 36 Watched a campaign commercial online Under 40 40-64 Seniors 13 20 31 Watched a viral video online from org other than campaign or news outlet Under 40 40-64 Seniors 10 16 28 Visited a political blog online Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or personal digital assistant Under 40 Seniors Under 40 Seniors 40-64 40-64 4 6 9 11 16 20 0 15 30 45
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