Pulling Open the Sticky Door Social Mobility among Latinos in Nebraska Lissette Aliaga-Linares Social Demographer Office of Latino/Latin American Studies (OLLAS) University of Nebraska at Omaha
Overview 1. Changing Demographics in the U.S.A 2. Nebraska Population Projections 3. Characteristics of Latinos in NE 4. Socioeconomic trends among Latinos in NE Employment Education
The Next America Percent of the U.S. Total Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1960-2060 100% 90% 4% 10% 8% All Other 80% 85% 16% Asian 70% 12% 31% 60% 64% Hispanic 50% 13% Black 40% 43% 30% White 20% 10% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: Pew Research Center
What explains Latino population growth? Let s compare Projected Components of Change for Hispanic Origin Population, U.S.: 2015-2060 2.7 Million immigrants Net Migration 29% Natural Increase 71% 9 Million births - 2.5 Million Deaths 6.5 Million More! Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Projections 2012
The Next Nebraska 100% Percent of the Nebraska Total Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1980-2050 90% 94% 9% All Other 80% 82% 24% 70% 6% Hispanic 60% 50% 62% Black 40% 30% White 20% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: UNO, Center for Public Affairs Research, June 2013
Latinos will be the future source of growth Age-Sex Pyramids for Latinos and Non-Hispanic Whites, Nebraska 2012 Hispanic NH Whites 85 yrs+ 80-84 yrs 75-79 yrs 70-74 yrs 65-69 yrs 60-64 yrs 55-59 yrs 50-54 yrs 45-49 yrs 40-44 yrs 35-39 yrs 30-34 yrs 25-29 yrs 20-24 yrs 15-19 yrs 10-14 yrs 5-9 yrs < 5 yrs Males 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 85 yrs+ 80-84 yrs 75-79 yrs 70-74 yrs 65-69 yrs 60-64 yrs 55-59 yrs 50-54 yrs 45-49 yrs 40-44 yrs 35-39 yrs 30-34 yrs 25-29 yrs 20-24 yrs 15-19 yrs 10-14 yrs 5-9 yrs < 5 yrs Males Females Males Females 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey
More visible growth from the youngest age-groups 100 + 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 < 5 Percentage of Latinos in Nebraska Population Age Distribution 2010-2050 2010 2030 2050 14% at retirement age 22% at voting age 24% at working age 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: 2010 US Census, CPAR Projections, June 2013
1870 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Perpetual foreigners? Evolution of Latino/Hispanic-Origin Population in Nebraska by Nativity, 1870-2012 200,000 175,000 All Latinos, 178,793 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 U.S. Born, 112,658 Foreign Born, 66,135 50,000 25,000 0 Source: Graph produced by OLLAS based on 1850-2012 Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-USA) *Data on nativity was not available for years 1960 and 1970
Characteristics of Latinos in Nebraska Foreign Born Latinos Median age: 34 50% Speaks English well or very well 67% of adults 25 years and older have less than high school diploma U.S Born Latinos Median age: 13 Half speak only English. 93% of those who are bilingual speak English well or very well 81% of adults 25 years and older have either completed high school or post-secondary degree Source: OLLAS Calculations based on 2008-2012 ACS-PUMS
Wait, there are Intergenerational ties! Percentage of U.S. Born Latinos under 17 years-old, by Nativity of their Parents, Nebraska 2008-2012 Lives with one or two U.S. born parents 42% Lives at least with one foreign born Parent 58% Two foreign born parents 27% One foreign borh parent 19% Two parents, one of whom is foreign born 12% Source: OLLAS Calculations based on 2008-2012 ACS-PUMS
Latinos in Nebraska, the good life? Average Household Income by Race/Ethnicity of Head Householder, Nebraska 2001-2012 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 White, Not Hispanic Hispanic (Any Race) 30,000 African American 20,000 10,000-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Graph produced by OLLAS based on 2001-2012 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-USA),
Hispanic Immigrant wages taking harder to recover from pre-recession Annual Gross Wage and Salary Income for Hispanics by Immigration Status, Nebraska, 2000-2012 40,000.00 35,000.00 All Nebraska (Excl. Hispanics) 30,000.00 Non Immigrant Hispanics 25,000.00 Hispanic 20,000.00 15,000.00 Immigrant Hispanics 10,000.00 5,000.00-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Graph produced by OLLAS based on 2001-2012 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-USA),
Labor Participation by Industry and Average Annual Wages for Latinos by Immigrant status in Nebraska Manufacturing Employs 30% of the total immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $25,256 a year Employs 10% of total non-immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $26,477 a year Construction Employs 15% of the total immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $24,507 a year Employs 6% of the total non-immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $25,672 a year Accommodation and Food Services Employs 10% of total immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $ 15,440 a year Employs 11% of total non-immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $ 11,202 a year Waste Management Employs 7% total immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $22,975 a year Employs 5% total non-immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $29,930 a year Health Care and Social Assistance Employs 4% of total immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $21,520 a year Employs 11% of total non-immigrant Latinos, pays on avg. $24,735 a year Source: OLLAS Calculations based on 2008-2012 ACS
% Changes Strong growth in Latino Business Growth rates for the Number of Firms, Sales, Employment and Annual Payroll by Owner Race/Ethnicity, Nebraska, 2002-2007 100 80 60 40 Hispanic White Black Asian Native American 20 0-20 -40 Number of Firms Sales Employment Annual payroll Source: OLLAS Calculations based on Survey of Business Owners, Summary Tables 1997, 2002, and 2007
but with a lot of challenges LOWEST SURVIVAL RATE LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELS AMONG BUSINESS OWNERS NOT MUCH EXPERIENCE AS SELF- EMPLOYED LEAST LIKELY TO EXPAND DECREASE IN THE PROPORTION OF EMPLOYER FIRMS YET, the highest job retention rate and hired more employees on average when expanding Source: OLLAS Report, Latino Businesses in Nebraska: A Preliminary Look
A Persistent Gap in Nebraska 2000 2012 Socioeconomic Indicators All Nebraska All Latinos in Nebraska All Nebraska All Latinos in Nebraska Poverty rates for families 7% 17% 9% 26% Population with no health insurance coverage N.A. N.A. 11% 31% Unemployment Rate 2.5% 8% 4% 7% Source: U.S. Census 2000 and ACS 2010-2012, Summary Tables available through American Fact Finder
More Latinos Attending College 6000 Latino Population Ages 18 to 24 Attending College, Nebraska 2000-2012 5,583 2000 2010-2012 5000 4000 3,880 3000 2000 2,146 1,663 1,703 1000 0 483 Total U.S. Born Foreign Born Source: OLLAS calculations based on U.S. Census 2000 and American Community Survey 2010-2012
1,519 2,129 3,160 5,289 4,807 6,326 Latinos Are Much Less Likely to Drop out of High School than Before But High School Dropouts on the Rise among U.S. born Latinos 60 Latino High School Dropout Rate by Nativity, Nebraska 2000-2012 2000 2010-2012 56% 7000 Latino High School Dropouts by Nativity, Nebraska 2000-2012 2000 2010-2012 50 6000 40 30 20 10 37% 19% 17% 12% 34% 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 All Latino U.S. Born Foreign Born 0 All Latino U.S. Born Foreign Born Source: OLLAS calculations based on U.S. Census 2000 and American Community Survey 2010-2012
The achievement gap Average Score in Mathematics and Reading, Nebraska 2013 White Hispanic Black 300 Mathematics 292 Reading 275 250 200 227 251 215 267 250 207 229 202 254 251 150 100 50 0 Grade 4 Grade 8 Grade 4 Grade 8 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP State Comparisons, 2013
Latinos, breaking the glass ceiling?