Table 1. Growth by Migration Components: and Florida, 2000 2007 Florida 2007 Population (000s) 7,712 18,251 Growth Rate* Total 8.5 13.7 Migration Rate* Domestic Migration 2.1 7.8 Immmigration 2.1 4.0 * growth rates per 100 populaton ** non-hispanic members of race Source: Authors analysis of U.S. Census estimates Figure 1A. : Net Migration Exchanges with Regions of the U.S., 2000-2007 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 73,738 30,000 20,000 10,000 17,170 18,234 0-10,000-20,000-30,000-53,214-40,000-50,000-60,000 South Northeast Midwest Source: Authors Analysis of Internal Revenue Service Migration Flow data
Figure 1B. Florida: Net Migration Exchanges with Regions of the U.S., 2000-2007 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 668,468 200000 100000 219,128 31,514 0-100000 -26,223 South Northeast Midwest Source: Authors Analysis of Internal Revenue Service Migration Flow data Figure 2. Race-Ethnic Profiles: Total Population vs. Eligible Voters White Black Asian Other Hispanic 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.9 5.6 18.8 67.1 Total 18.6 74.3 Eligible Voters 21.8 14.9 60.3 Total Florida 13.3 13.3 71.0 Eligible Voters 1.6 3.5 1.1 2.6 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.9 Source: Author s Analysis of 2007 Current Population Survey
Table 2. Demographic, Economic, and Political Indicators: U.S., and Florida Indicator U.S. Florida Demographic Indicators / State Rank % White 66.2 67.6 / 34 61.0 / 40 % Age 65+ 12.4 11.6 / 41 16.8 / 1 % Born in Same State # 67.4 56.5 / 36 41.5 / 50 Economic Indicators 2006 / State Rank % College Grads* 27.0 32.7 / 7 25.3/ 29 % Professionals** 20.2 23.4 / 5 17.7 / 49 % Manufacturing** 11.6 8.7 / 37 5.9 / 43 Median HH Income 48,451 56,277 / 9 45,495 / 28 % Persons in Poverty 13.3 9.6 / 45 12.6 / 26 State Political Indicators Dem/Rep House Members 3D/8R 9D/16R Dem/Rep Senators 1D/1R 1D/1R Governor: Dem or Rep D R Democratic Margin- 2004 Pres -8-5 # among native born residents *among persons age 25 and over ** among civilian employed population age 16 and over Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and state election results
The Political Geography of and Florida: Bookends of the New South Metropolitan Areas and Regions Map 1. Metropolitan Areas and Regions Winchester, VA-WV Washington-ArlingtonAlexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV NORTHERN REGIONS Counties Harrisonburg Metropolitan areas Charlottesville SOUTH AND WEST Roanoke Blacksburg RICHMOND AND EAST Richmond Lynchburg BEACH Danville Kingsport-BristolBristol, TN-VA Population Change by County in, 2000-2007 Map 2. Population Change by County, 2000 2007 Decline NORTHERN Less than 9% Growth 10% to 19% Growth 20%+ Growth RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates
Figure 3. Share of Population in Regions, 2007 (%) 29.3 Northern 31.8 Richmond and East 17.6 Beach 21.2 Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates Figure 4. Population Growth in Regions, 2000-2007 15 12 Percent change 9 6 15 9.9 3 4.7 4.2 0 Northern Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates
Table 3. Eligible Voters in Key Demographic Segments, 2006 and Change since 2000 Share of Percent Total Change Key Demographic Segments 2006 2000-2006 Minorities 26.8 15.9 Whites Age 65+ 12.9 10.6 White Working-Age College Grads, 20.8 11.9 White Working-Age Non College Grads 39.5 0.4 Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census Figure 5. Eligible Voters in Key Demographic Segments, Regions Minorities White 65+ Whites College Grad WA Whites Non College, WA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29 34 10 27 Northern 36 15 11 38 Beach 35 19 12 34 Richmond and East 53 13 17 16 Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census
Figure 6. Change in Eligible Voters for Key Demographic Segments, Regions, 2000-2006 Minorities White 65+ Whites College Grad WA Whites Non College, WA 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000-20,000 Northern Va. Beach Richmond and East Source: Authors calculations of U.S. Census estimates
Table 4. 2006 Race-Ethnic Attributes of Eligible Voters for Regions in Share in Race-Ethnic Group, 2006 Region White* Black* Asian* Other* Hispanic Total State Total 73.2 19.3 3.4 1.4 2.7 100.0 Northern 73.4 11.6 8.0 1.4 5.6 100.0 Beach 62.4 30.1 2.7 2.0 2.7 100.0 Richmond and East 65.8 30.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 100.0 84.1 13.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 100.0 Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey * non-hispanic members of race group Table 5. 2006 Age of Eligible Voters for Regions in Share of Group, 2006 Region 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Total State Total 21.0 28.1 34.9 16.0 100.0 Northern 18.1 31.5 38.0 12.5 100.0 Beach 23.6 29.0 32.5 14.9 100.0 Richmond and East 20.9 27.9 34.9 16.3 100.0 22.0 24.6 33.6 19.8 100.0 Source: Authors analysis of 2006 American Community Survey
Table 6. 2006 Region of Birth of Eligible Voters: Regions in Share of Group in Birthplace, 2006 Region Rest of South Northeast Midwest Foreign Born Total State Total 47.1 19.3 14.4 7.5 4.1 7.5 100.0 Northern 22.4 22.4 21.0 10.8 6.6 16.6 100.0 Beach 42.9 21.5 15.7 8.9 4.9 6.1 100.0 Richmond and East 60.2 16.1 12.4 5.2 2.1 3.9 100.0 65.7 16.8 8.7 4.7 2.2 2.0 100.0 Source: Authors analysis of U.S. Census 2006 American Community Survey Table 7. Voting by Selected Demographic Groups, 2004 and 2006 2004 President 2006 Senate Group Democrat Republican Dem-Rep Democrat Republican Dem-Rep White 32 68-36 42 56-14 Black 87 12 75 85 15 70 Hispanic 51 47 4 46 54-8 Asian 65 35 30 68 32 36 Men 40 59-19 45 55-10 Women 50 50 0 55 45 10 White Men 27 72-45 38 62-24 White Women 35 64-29 47 53-6 HS Dropout 56 44 12 HS Graduate 42 58-16 Some College 47 53-6 College Grad 47 53-6 Postgraduate 57 43 14 White Noncollege 34 66-32 White College 47 53-6 18-29 54 46 8 52 48 4 30-39 42 56-14 59 41 18 40-49 38 61-23 49 51-2 50-64 47 53-6 53 47 6 65+ 51 49 2 50 50 0 Total 45 54-8 50 49 1 Source: Authors analysis of 2004 and 2006 exit polls
The Political Geography of and Florida: Bookends of the New South Maps 3A 3C. County Presidential Voting, 1988 2004 1988 Presidential Voting in by County 1988 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH 1996 Presidential Voting in by County 1996 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10%+ Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH 2004 Presidential Voting in by County 2004 NORTHERN Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin 10%+ RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST BEACH Source: Authors analysis of election returns