"Population trends in Europe and their impact on the retail insurance business" Rainer Muenz Erste Group, Vienna European Congress of Mutual & Cooperative Insurance Rainer Münz June 18, 2008
Population Today 2 Rainer Muenz
European Union + Assoc. Countries EU27+4 EU27 Total Population: 497 million - EU15 ( old MS) 395 million - EU12 ( new MS) 102 million Other EEA+CH 12 million EU27+4 Foreign-born population 509 million 43 million - Foreign-born (in%) 8.5% 3 Rainer Muenz
Common Trends and regional differences 4 Rainer Muenz
The European case Common trends Low number of children High and growing life expectancy Demographic aging High immigration 5 Rainer Muenz
Number of Children in Europe Lowest number of children per family ever recorded in history Below replacement levels Development leads to excess of deaths over births xxx Shrinking native populations 6 Rainer Muenz
Number of Children in Europe Children per woman, 2005 7 Rainer Muenz
The European case Common trends Low number of children High and growing life expectancy Demographic aging High immigration 8 Rainer Muenz
Life expectancy in Europe Highest life expectancy ever recorded in history Constant growth since the mid-19th century No signs of slow down in Western Europe High potential for catch-up in Central and Eastern Europe 9 Rainer Muenz
Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, males Rainer Münz June 18, 2008
Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, females Rainer Münz June 18, 2008
The European case Common trends Low number of children High and growing life expectancy Demographic aging High immigration 12 Rainer Muenz
Demographic Aging Not a biological process But a shift from the younger to the older age groups Low number of children Increasing life expectancy Both contribute to population aging in Europe 13 Rainer Muenz
EU 27: Aging in Europe 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M e d ia n A g e A v e r a g e A g e Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007 14 Rainer Muenz
EU 27: Aging in Europe 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M e d ia n A g e A v e r a g e A g e Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007 15 Rainer Muenz
EU 27: Aging in Europe 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 M e d ia n A g e A v e r a g e A g e Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007 16 Rainer Muenz
The European case Common trends Low fertility High and growing life expectancy Demographic ageing High immigration 17 Rainer Muenz
Immigration Foreign-born population in EU27: 43 million Of them: 14 million from other EU countries 27 million from third countries Immigration from other Europe, MENA, sub-saharan Africa, Lat. America, South Asia 18 Rainer Muenz
Net-Migration in Europe, 2000-2005 2005 (per 1000 inhabitants) over -5. -5 to -2-2 to 0 0 to +2 +2 to +5 over +5 19 Rainer Muenz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Stock of Migrants in Europe, 2005 (in % of total population) over 15%. 10 to 15% 5 to 10% 0 to 5% 20 Rainer Muenz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
Population Change in 2007 21 Rainer Muenz
Europe in 2007 Western and Central Europe (EU27/EEA/CH) in 2007 Total population growth: +2.3 abcd million of which: 85% from net migration 24 out of 31 countries (EU27/EEA/CH) had a net gain from migration 10 out of 31 countries (EU27/EEA/CH) had more deaths than births 22 Rainer Muenz
Challenges and Opportunities 23 Rainer Muenz
Challenges and Opportunities Growing customer groups: Generation 50+ Urban + sub-urban population Migrant population Mobile Europeans 24 Rainer Muenz
Challenges and Opportunities Changing needs Securing old age income in addition to mandatory 1st pillar pensions Portability of health and pension benefits Long-term care 25 Rainer Muenz
Challenges and Opportunities Main questions: Do we have the appropriate products? Do we use the right sales channels? Do we have a well prepared sales force? 26 Rainer Muenz
Examples Life insurance and pension plans for all ages Reverse mortgages Health and pension insurance for mobile Europeans and non-europeans Sales force 50 and older Sales force with migrant background 27 Rainer Muenz
Our main customers of tomorrow 28 Rainer Muenz
Our customers of tomorrow 29 Rainer Muenz
Contact rainer.muenz@erstebank.at 30 Rainer Muenz