Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration for Canada Session 141: Social Insurance Projections Migration 2 Michel Montambeault 1
Presentation Recent Statistics on Canadian Immigration Recent Statistics on Net Migration in Canada Projections (OCA, Statistics Canada and RRQ) International Comparison 2
Part 1: Recent Statistics on Canadian Immigration 3
Canadian Immigration (1953-2008) Number of Canadian Immigrants 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008. 4
Canadian Immigration by Category (1984-2008) Number of Canadian Immigrants 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Family class Economic immigrants Refugees Other immigrants * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008. 5
Canadian Immigration by Source Region (1996-2008) Source Region 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Africa and the Middle East 16% 19% 18% 20% 21% 21% 21% Americas (excl. U.S.) 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 10% 11% Asia and Pacific 55% 48% 53% 52% 49% 50% 48% Europe 18% 22% 19% 17% 18% 15% 16% United States 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% All 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview 2008. 6
Source Country China Canadian Immigrants Top 5 Source Countries (1996-2008) 1996 17,533 1998 19,790 2000 36,750 2002 33,307 2004 36,429 2006 33,079 2008 29,336 Annual Growth Rate 2002-2008 -2% India 21,291 15,376 26,123 28,838 25,573 30,754 24,549-3% Philippines 13,158 8,185 10,119 11,011 13,303 17,718 23,724 14% United States 5,850 4,776 5,828 5,294 7,507 10,943 11,216 13% United Kingdom 5,593 3,899 4,649 4,724 6,062 6,542 9,243 12% * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview 2008. 7
Distribution of Canadian Immigrants by Landing Region (1996-2008) Landing Region Atlantic Provinces Québec 1996 2% 13% 1998 2% 15% 2000 1% 14% 2002 1% 16% 2004 1% 19% 2006 2% 18% 2008 3% 18% Annual Growth Rate 2002-2008 17% 3% Ontario 53% 53% 59% 58% 53% 50% 45% -3% Prairies 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 17% Alberta 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 10% 9% British Columbia 23% 21% 17% 15% 16% 17% 18% 4% * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview 2008. 8
Proportion of Canadian Immigrants with a University Degree (1996-2008) Gender 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Males 35% 41% 51% 52% 49% 45% 46% Females 24% 30% 37% 40% 42% 40% 45% Both Sexes 30% 35% 44% 46% 46% 43% 45% * Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview 2008. 9
Part 2: Recent Statistics on Net Migration for Canada 10
Historical Migration Components - Canada (1973-2008) Percentage of Population 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Immigration Emigration Net Migration 0.1% 0.0% 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year * Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009. 11
Average Age of Immigrants, Emigrants and Returning Canadians - 1971 and 2008 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1971 2008 1971 2008 Males Females Immigrants Emigrants Returning Canadians * Source: Statistics Canada: Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories 2009. 12
Canadian Interprovincial Migration by Region (1973-2008) Interprovincial Migration * Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009. 13
Historical Migration Components - Québec (1973-2008) Percentage of Population * Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009. 14
Part 3: Projections (OCA, Statistics Canada and RRQ) 15
Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Canada (2010 and 2030) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2010 2030 2010 2030 % of Population # of Net Migration (000's) OCA StatCan 300 240 180 120 60 0 16
Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Québec (2010 and 2030) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2010 2030 2010 2030 % of Population # of Net Migration (000's) OCA StatCan RRQ 40 30 20 10 0 17
Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (Statistic Canada Medium Scenario) (Thousands) 450 400 350 300 250 62% 200 150 International Net Migration 92% 100 50 Natural Increase 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 18
Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (OCA 23 rd CPP Actuarial Report Best-Estimate) (Thousands) 450 400 350 300 250 200 68% 150 100 50 Natural Increase International Net Migration 100% 0 2010-50 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060-100 -150 19
Stochastic scenarios within a 95% confidence interval produce minimum contribution rates between 9.70% and 9.92% 8.0 Evolution of Asset/Expenditure Ratio with a 9.9% contribution rate 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 High-Cost: 0.48% of the population (2020+) Best Estimate: 0.54% of the population (2020+) Low-Cost: 0.59% of the population (2020+) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 3.0 20
Part 4: International Comparison 21
1,00% International Comparison of Projected Levels of Net Migration 2010-2040 Germany 0,80% Canada (outside Québec) United States Finland France 0,60% Greece Ireland 0,40% Italy Japan Norway 0,20% Portugal Québec Switzerland 0,00% 2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Note: This graph was prepared by La Régie des Rentes du Québec and was presented at the 16th International Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians in Ottawa, Canada in September 2009. 22
Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration for Canada Thank You Session 141: Social Insurance Projections Migration 2 Michel Montambeault 23