G[kc %1ar-1CbCr/EAGLETON POLL FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, JUNE 14, 1987 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN OR RELEASE: SL/EP15-I (EP65-1) BOB CARTER RELEASE INFORMATION A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and back ground memo will appear In Sunday s Star-Ledger. Other newspapers may also use this information In their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 6:00 p.m. Saturday, June 13. We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll. REAGAN POPULARITY CONTINUES TO SLIDE WITH IRAN-CONTRA HEARINGS; NEW JERSEYANS QUESTION PRESIDENT S TRUTHFULNESS The conclusion of the first stage of Congressional hearings into the Iran-contra affair finds New Jerseyans giving President Ronald Reagan his lowest job performance rating since 1984. A new Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll also finds Garden State residents continuing to express strong doubts about the President s truthfulness in this matter and voicing concern about Reagan s ability to run the government effectively during the remainder of his term in office. The survey, conducted by telephone between May 28 and June 9, finds positive job performance ratings of excellent or good outnumbering negative ones of only fair or poor by only 3 percentage points among the statewide sample of BOO New Jerseyans. This is down from a margin of 15 points in February--before the Congressional hearings and the release of the Tower Connission Report which was critical of Reagan s handling of the situation. During the past year, the President s overall job performance rating has dropped sharply. As recently as last July positive evaluations ran ahead of negative ones by a margin of 63 to 32 percent--a difference of 31 points. -more- ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 6:00 p.m. on Saturday, June_13_from_1201)_932-3605_(Rutgers_Feature_Phone). THE STAT! UN!PSITY Of NF JERS IZ_LJTK5EI.S Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/828-2210
this issue, with the remaining 20 percent expressing no opinion. unaware that money from the sale of arms to Iran was used to aid the Contras in fewer than one In three believes Reagan was telling the truth when he said he was to cover up some of the facts of the sale of U.S. arms to Iran. Additionally, Two-thirds of New Jerseyans say they think the Reagan administration is trying Nicaragua. Half of the people in the state feel the President has been lying on -more- little or not at all by the hearings. The remaining 6 percent offer no opinion. percent at least some. In contrast, 37 percent feel Reagan will only be hurt a his term, with 21 percent saying they expect him to be hurt a lot and another 36 hearings will hurt Reagan s ability to be an effective President during the rest of leadership will be damaged to some extent. A majority--57 percent--believe the clear that many New Jerseyans expect that the President s ability to exercise While what will unfold at the next round of hearings is still a mystery, it is North--are expected to testify. the White House operation--rear Adm. John Poindexter and lieut. Col. Oliver resume with a sharper focus on the key questions of exactly what the President knew The Congressional hearings are in recess until at least June 22, and will and what actions he took in the Iran-Contra affair. Two of the major figures in reputation and presidency. the hearings to see how much damage the Iran-Contra affair ultimately does to his all the negative attention. We will have to wait, however, for the next stage of or told the full truth. The drop in support is less than might be expected given evaluations despite the public s sense that he has not handled the situation well storm quite well so far. Reagan still receives more favorable than unfavorable obviously not good news for the President s supporters, he really has weathered the Cliff Zukin, director of the Poll, coninented, While the new figures are EP65-1 (SL/EP1S-1) Page 2 (
Zukin coninented, Despite the obvious damage that the Iran-Contra affair has time. is really In charge of what goes on In his administration; the majority--56 percent--think that other people are really running the government most of the of his presidency. Less than one-third--31 percent--express the view that Reagan As in February, most New Jerseyans do not feel Reagan is in day-to-day control Copyright, The Eagleton Institute/Newark Star-Ledger, igai. -30- quite similar to those expressed last February. offer no opinion. Assessments of the President s performance in this area are also positive marks in this area and 50 percent giving him negative ones. The remainder divided over Reagan s handling of the nation s economy, with 47 percent giving him poor. This is unchanged from February of this year. New Jerseyans are evenly doing an only fair job in this area and 27 percent rate his performance as about the President s handling of foreign affairs. Thirty-five percent say he is Only one-third offer positive evaluations of excellent or good when questioned foreign affairs and a mixed assessment of how he has managed the nation s economy. President Reagan continues to get poor grades for his handling of the nation s gain, to about 7 percentage points. The average from surveys we have conducted in 1987 shows only a small Democratic advantage dropped steadily through the 1980s to a low of only 4 points In 1986. Republican party by a margin of about 14 percentage points. The Democratic found more people identifying themselves as closer to the Democratic than party as a whole. In 1980, when Reagan was first elected, our New Jersey surveys caused so far to the Reagan presidency, it has not yet spread to the Republican EP65-1 ($L/EP65-1) Page 3
Utlic 4aE-ICbgCE/EAGLETON POLL BACKGROUND MEMO--RELEASE SL/EPI5-1 (EP65-1). SUNDAY. JUNE 14, 1987 The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between May 28 and June 9, 1987, when a random sample of 800 New Jerseyans, (18 years and older) was interviewed by telephone. Figures presented for the total sample of 800 have a sampling error of ± 5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows: How would you rate the job Ronald Reagan is doing as president--excellent, good, only fair or poor? Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Don t Know Total jjj June 1987 12% 38% 32% 15% 3% 100% (800) February 1987 13 44 27 15 1 100 (800) October 1986 22 44 22 11 2 101 (800) July 1986 19 44 23 9 4 99 (800) February 1986 23 46 19 9 3 100 (600) August 1985 19 39 25 14 3 100 (800) April-May 1985 15 40 26 16 3 100 (1000) April 1984 12 35 37 15 2 101 (804) JUNE 1987 BREAKDOWNS Party --Democrat 5 28 40 26 2 101 (234) --Independent 8 39 36 14 4 101 (312) --Republican 27 52 16 2 3 100 (214) Sex --male 15 41 28 14 1 99 (400) --female 8 36 36 15 4 99 (400) Mg --18-29 11 46 31 10 1 99 (206) --30-49 10 35 37 15 3 100 (323) --50-64 15 38 30 16 0 99 (147) --65+ 12 34 30 17 7 100 (115) Race --white 12 43 29 13 3 100 (653) --non-white 9 23 44 21 3 100 (136) NE STAll UNrEPgTV OF NBN f?v I_L.J1x:EIz.S Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/828-2210 (
EP65-1 (SL/EP15-1) -2- How would you rate Reagan s handling of the nation s foreign affairs? Excellent Good Only fair Poor Don t know Total jj June 1987 5% 28% 35% 27% 5% 100% (800) February 1987 8 24 36 28 4 100 (800) April-Nay 1985 9 32 39 17 4 101 (500) April 1984 5 24 40 26 5 100 (808) October 1983 8 29 36 24 4 101 (804) How would you rate Reagan s handling of the problems of the economy? Excellent Good Only fair Poor Don t know Total jjfl June 1987 8% 3% 32% 18% 3% 100% (800) February 1987 11 35 30 20 4 100 (800) April-Kay 1985 13 36 28 21 2 100 (500) April 1984 13 28 32 22 5 100 (808) Do you think that most of the time Ronald Reagan is in charge of what goes on in his administration, or do you think that most of the time other people are really running the government? Reagan Others Run Don t in Charge Government Know Total June 1987 31% 56% 12% 99% (800) February 1987 35 56 9 100 (800) --Democrat 20 73 8 101 (233) --Independent 29 60 11 100 (312) --Republican 49 40 11 100 (214)
about the Iranian arms deal February 1987 83 11 5 99 (799) Covering Up Covering Up Know Total jjjj June 1987 68% 18% 13% 99% (800) Yes-- No--Not Don t 1 or not? Do you think the Reagan administration is trying to cover up some of the facts --Republican 16 39 24 18 3 100 (214) --Independent 19 35 U 17 8 100 (312) --Democrat 27 38 18 12 5 100 (234) Total Sample 21% 36% 22% 15% 6% 100% (800) June 1987 Lot Some Little all Know Total jjfl A A Not at Don t his term--will they hurt him a lot, some, a little, or riot at all? affair will hurt Reagan s ability to be an effective president for the rest of How much do you think the Congressional hearings into the Iran-Contra arms --Republican 51 33 16 100 (214) --Independent 30 51 19 100 (312) --Democrat 19% 65% 16% 100% (234) February 1987 37 50 13 100 (799) June 1987 31% 49% 20% 100% (800) Telling Truth Was Lying Know Total fin Don t Nicaragua. Do you think he was telling the truth or was he lying when he said sale was going to help the Contras who are fighting against the government of that? Ronald Reagan has said he did not know that the money from the Iranian arms --Independent 73 16 11 100 (312) --Republican 53 35 12 100 (214) - -Democrat 82 8 10 100 (234) EP65-1 (SL/EP15-1) -3-