Gray Television: North Dakota Survey

Gray Television: North Dakota Survey Strategic Research Associates, LLC 10/21/2018 According to a survey of 650 likely voters in North Dakota conducted between October 12-19, 2018, Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leads incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp 56% to 40%, increasing his lead since Gray Television s September poll, in which Cramer held a 10-point advantage. Heitkamp s support appears relatively fixed. Only 5% of those supporting her say that they might change their mind, compared to 17% of Cramer supporters who say they may still change theirs. Heitkamp is viewed favorably by 37% of North Dakota voters and unfavorably by 52%, with 7% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar. That unfavorable number represents a significant increase since September, when only 41% held an unfavorable view of her. Her challenger is viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters (a 7-point increase over September) and unfavorably by 38%, with 5% holding a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar with him. Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Bret Kavanaugh s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media, said James Henson, PhD, a partner in Strategic Research Associates, LLC, the research firm that conducted the poll for Gray Television. The U.S. Senate voted on Kavanaugh s confirmation in the period between the two polls. In the race for North Dakota s seat in Congress, Republican Kelly Armstrong leads Democrat Mac Schneider 56% to 35%, with 9% undecided. Forty-five percent hold a favorable view of Armstrong while 16% hold an unfavorable view, with 20% expressing a neutral opinion. Schneider is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters, unfavorably by 17%, with the remainder either neutral (19%) or unfamiliar (31%) with the Democratic candidate. Poll results in the race for Attorney General find Republican Wayne Stenehjem leading Democrat David Clark Thompson 67% to 27%. In the race for Secretary of State, Al Yaeger, running as an independent, leads Democrat Josh Boschee 51% to 29%. Independent Michael Coachman registered 4% support. The poll also asked North Dakotans about the constitutional measures on the ballot in 2018: 42% expressed support for measure number one, which would establish an ethics commission, ban foreign political contributions, and enact provisions related to lobbying and conflicts of interest. Thirty-four percent expressed opposition, while 24% were unsure how they would vote. 72% expressed support for measure number two, which would amend the North Dakota Constitution to state that only citizens are qualified to vote in federal, state, local, or 1

school elections. Twenty percent expressed opposition, while 8% were unsure how they would vote. 65% expressed opposition to measure number three, which would legalize the possession of marijuana and provide for the automatic removal of past marijuana convictions from criminal records in North Dakota. Twenty-six percent expressed support, while 9% were unsure how they would vote. 55% expressed support for measure number four, which would provide partially personalized license plates to volunteer emergency responders that would provide free access to state parks. Twenty-six percent expressed opposition, while 20% were unsure how they would vote. Overall, 64% of North Dakota voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 33% disapprove. The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, based in Austin, Texas. A total of 650 likely voters were surveyed between October 12-19, 2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. The final results are weighted based on analysis of available electoral and commercial data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/- 3.84 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group. 2

ENTH. Compared to previous Congressional elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More enthusiastic 50 Less enthusiastic 9 The same as usual 41 Don t know 1 More enthusiastic 51.7 35.3 49.9 49.9 49.5 48.5 50.6 49.3 50 41.7 54.0 43.3 51.1 45.4 53.3 Less enthusiastic 7.3 9.2 11.3 10.4 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.2 0 0.0 7.0 8.9 8.2 11.9 5.9 The same as usual 39.6 54.3 38.8 37.9 41.8 42.0 39.6 40.5 50 58.3 39.1 47.3 39.3 41.0 40.6 Don t know 1.3 1.1 0.0 1.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.2 MIP. Which one of the following national issues is currently most important to you as a voter? [RANDOMIZE 1-11] Healthcare 18 Immigration & Border Security 16 The Economy & Jobs 12 U.S. Supreme Court Nomination of Brett Kavanaugh 12 Social Issues 9 Gun Rights & Gun Control 7 Taxes, Government Spending & National Debt 7 National Security, Terrorism & Foreign Policy 6 Russian Collusion or Removing Trump from Office 5 U.S. Trade Policy & Tariffs 4 None 4 Other 2 The Economy & Jobs 13.4 9.6 10.0 15.7 10.6 12.8 11.3 11.8 16.7 0.0 14.6 9.5 15.3 10.2 13.6 Healthcare 11.6 21.6 27.9 15.0 18.6 13.4 21.5 18.6 6.2 27.8 7.4 21.3 14.8 16.2 18.9 Immigration & Border Security 21.4 15.1 4.6 12.1 16.8 15.1 15.9 14.7 18.7 25.0 24.3 20.4 13.2 18.3 13.1 Gun Rights & Gun Control 9.3 5.0 3.0 6.4 7.2 8.8 5.2 7.2 8.3 0.0 4.3 7.6 6.5 8.7 5.4 National Security, Terrorism & Foreign Policy 6.4 5.0 4.6 5.3 5.8 5.5 5.8 6.0 14.6 0.0 0.0 8.5 4.6 7.7 3.8 Taxes, Government Spending & National Debt 7.7 7.3 6.9 8.8 6.9 10.1 4.8 7.6 14.6 22.2 0.0 8.3 9.7 7.9 6.9 U.S. Trade Policy & Tariffs 3.2 3.8 4.7 3.5 3.8 3.2 4.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.8 4.3 2.6 4.7 Social Issues 8.3 7.3 10.2 7.6 9.3 7.0 10.4 7.5 6.2 0.0 26.8 8.1 9.5 6.3 11.0 Russian Collusion or Removing Trump from Office 1.5 8.5 11.4 3.5 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 0.0 25.0 2.3 1.7 7.5 5.1 5.4 U.S. Supreme Court Nomination of Brett Kavanaugh 13.4 4.4 10.5 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.7 12.1 14.6 0.0 6.7 2.4 11.7 10.9 12.4 Other 0.7 6.5 2.4 2.3 1.5 2.9 0.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 2.8 0.8 1.6 1.9 None 3.2 6.0 3.8 8.2 2.0 4.3 3.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 6.7 3.6 2.2 4.6 2.9 3

[For Q1 through Q4, if response selected for initial item was Haven t thought about it enough, respondents were then asked, If you had to make a choice, who would you choose? Results presented are the combined responses to both items.] Q1. If the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from North Dakota was held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE, the Democrat Heidi Heitkamp [Pronounced: Hi-dee Height-Camp ], the Republican Kevin Cramer [Pronounced: Craymer ]], or haven t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? Kevin Cramer 56 Heidi Heitcamp 40 Don t Know/Refuse 4 Kevin Cramer 87.4 31.8 3.3 55.2 56.2 61.7 50.7 56.3 41.7 47.2 57.5 46.0 59.1 56.6 55.4 Heidi Heitcamp 9.4 54.7 93.3 40.7 39.5 33.2 45.9 39.6 58.3 52.8 34.9 47.5 38.0 37.7 41.8 Don t Know/Refuse 3.2 13.6 3.4 4.1 4.3 5.0 3.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 7.6 6.5 2.9 5.7 2.8 Q1B. Which of the following statements best describes your support for [INSERT RE- SPONSE FROM Q1F]... Very strong, I ve decided 66 Strong, I probably won t change 22 Somewhat strong, I might still change 7 Not too strong, I ll probably change at some point 6 Kevin Cramer Heidi Heitcamp Don t Know/Refuse Very strong, I ve decided 65 69 14 Strong, I probably won t change 18 26 14 Somewhat strong, I might still change 8 5 14 Not too strong, I ll probably change at some point 9 0 57 4

Q2. If the 2018 general election for U.S. Congress from North Dakota was held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE, the Democrat Mac Schneider [Pronounced: Shny-der ], the Republican Kelly Armstrong ], or haven t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? Kelly Armstrong 56 Mac Schneider 35 Don t Know/Refuse 9 Kelly Armstrong 84.5 31.9 9.0 54.1 56.7 60.0 52.3 57.4 35.4 44.4 45.5 53.5 59.6 57.1 55.0 Mac Schneider 7.3 46.4 84.5 32.6 35.9 32.5 37.4 34.7 56.2 41.7 32.1 36.5 34.1 35.0 35.1 Don t Know/Refuse 8.2 21.7 6.6 13.3 7.4 7.5 10.4 7.9 8.3 13.9 22.4 10.0 6.3 7.9 10.0 Q3. If the 2018 general election for Secretary of State from North Dakota was held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE, the Democrat Josh Boschee [Pronounced: Boshay ], the independent Al Jaeger [Pronounced: Jay-ger ], the independent Michael Coachman ], or haven t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? Al Jaeger 51 Josh Boschee 29 Michael Coachman 4 Don t Know/Refuse 16 Al Jaeger 68.8 35.6 22.0 54.5 49.8 53.1 49.2 51.9 43.8 25.0 46.1 42.5 53.1 51.6 50.6 Josh Boschee 5.5 38.5 69.7 27.4 29.1 28.2 29.0 28.7 43.8 47.2 20.5 35.6 28.6 25.9 31.1 Michael Coachman 5.9 2.9 1.2 3.5 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.2 6.2 0.0 2.3 4.3 3.8 4.4 3.9 Don t Know/Refuse 19.9 23.0 7.1 14.5 16.8 14.2 17.9 15.1 6.2 27.8 31.1 17.7 14.5 18.2 14.4 5

Q4. If the 2018 general election for Attorney General from North Dakota was held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE, the Democrat David Clark Thompson, the Republican Wayne Stenehjem, [Pronounced: Sten-jem ]], or haven t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? Wayne Stenehjem 67 David Clark Thompson 27 Don t Know/Refuse 6 Wayne Stenehjem 91.6 49.1 24.9 63.9 67.9 68.7 65.0 67.2 47.9 58.3 69.1 66.0 69.6 64.3 69.1 David Clark Thompson 4.1 31.5 69.1 27.3 26.8 24.9 28.8 26.8 37.5 33.3 24.4 29.3 26.1 28.4 25.6 Don t Know/Refuse 4.3 19.4 6.0 8.7 5.3 6.3 6.2 6.0 14.6 8.3 6.5 4.7 4.3 7.3 5.3 6

Now, we d like to ask you about some of the North Dakota constitutional measures voters will see on the ballot in the 2018 general election. Q5. Measure number one establishes an ethics commission, bans foreign political contributions, and enacts provisions related to lobbying and conflicts of interest. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this measure? For 42 Against 34 Don t know/no opinion 24 For 31.1 46.3 62.1 43.6 41.6 43.9 40.6 42.9 50.0 66.7 26.9 39.8 44.2 36.4 47.4 Against 42.5 24.3 19.9 36.7 32.7 38.1 29.8 34.5 14.6 27.8 31.2 37.4 37.1 34.6 33.0 Don t know/no opinion 26.4 29.4 18.0 19.7 25.7 18.1 29.6 22.6 35.4 5.6 41.8 22.8 18.6 29.0 19.7 Q6. Measure number two amends the North Dakota Constitution to state that only citizens are qualified to vote in federal, state, local, or school elections. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this measure? For 72 Against 20 Don t know/no opinion 8 For 83.1 66.1 51.7 74.9 70.5 70.0 73.3 71.8 56.2 47.2 78.2 72.8 72.0 75.3 68.5 Against 11.1 26.0 35.4 19.2 20.4 21.1 19.2 19.5 43.8 44.4 16.6 19.4 19.7 14.5 25.1 Don t know/no opinion 5.8 7.8 12.9 5.8 9.1 8.9 7.6 8.6 0.0 8.3 5.3 7.8 8.3 10.2 6.4 7

Q7. Measure number three legalizes the possession of marijuana and provides for the automatic removal of past marijuana convictions from criminal records in North Dakota. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this measure? If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this measure? For 26 Against 65 Don t know/no opinion 9 For 14.0 32.9 46.6 33.4 23.2 31.7 20.6 26.6 12.5 25.0 22.0 34.2 27.1 24.4 27.4 Against 74.6 60.7 47.9 53.3 69.2 61.2 68.4 64.2 87.5 61.1 68.3 59.1 65.5 63.7 66.0 Don t know/no opinion 11.4 6.5 5.5 13.3 7.5 7.1 10.9 9.2 0.0 13.9 9.7 6.7 7.4 11.9 6.6 Q8. Measure number four provides partially personalized license plates to volunteer emergency responders that would provide free access to state parks. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this measure? For 55 Against 26 Don t know/no opinion 20 For 53.2 52.6 58.8 49.3 56.9 49.9 59.4 55.2 52.1 61.1 50.4 54.5 58.5 52.5 57.1 Against 25.7 27.1 24.9 25.0 25.8 28.0 23.4 25.4 41.7 30.6 22.6 26.3 25.5 24.6 26.5 Don t know/no opinion 21.1 20.3 16.2 25.6 17.3 22.1 17.2 19.4 6.2 8.3 27.1 19.2 16.0 22.9 16.4 8

Finally... Q3. Please tell us whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral impression of [SELECT RANDOMLY FROM A-D BELOW], or are you unfamiliar with [SE- LECT RANDOMLY FROM A-D BELOW]? [RESPONSE OPTIONS, Favorable, Unfavorable, Neutral, Unfamiliar ] A. Heidi Heitkamp Favorable 37 Unfavorable 52 Neutral 7 Unfamiliar 4 Favorable 8.5 53.1 85.2 30.2 39.0 32.2 40.8 36.9 58.3 44.4 25.7 38.9 37.7 33.0 39.9 Unfavorable 79.2 23.1 7.8 57.6 49.4 53.2 50.2 51.9 41.7 25.0 54.7 43.0 53.8 55.2 48.4 Neutral 8.7 12.8 3.4 8.8 6.9 9.5 5.5 7.3 0.0 16.7 10.8 12.4 6.0 6.8 8.0 Unfamiliar 3.6 11.0 3.6 3.4 4.6 5.1 3.6 4.0 0.0 13.9 8.8 5.6 2.5 4.9 3.8 B. Kevin Cramer Favorable 53 Unfavorable 38 Neutral 5 Unfamiliar 4 Favorable 80.4 25.4 8.5 55.2 51.9 56.7 49.2 53.5 50 30.6 48.3 46.6 56.5 52.3 53.3 Unfavorable 11.1 47.4 85.2 39.0 37.2 31.8 43.0 37.4 50 55.6 34.9 42.2 36.4 37.2 38.1 Neutral 4.6 13.8 3.8 2.3 6.3 5.9 4.6 5.0 0 5.6 9.9 6.2 3.9 4.9 5.5 Unfamiliar 3.8 13.4 2.4 3.5 4.6 5.6 3.2 4.2 0 8.3 7.0 4.9 3.1 5.6 3.1 9

C. Mac Schneider Favorable 33 Unfavorable 17 Neutral 19 Unfamiliar 31 Favorable 13.3 34.9 69.8 28.0 34.8 32.1 33.7 33.1 70.8 52.8 17.0 36.7 33.2 30.4 35.3 Unfavorable 25.6 7.8 4.5 12.1 19.3 18.0 16.7 17.5 14.6 5.6 17.3 9.3 19.8 16.1 18.5 Neutral 24.1 26.9 6.5 27.9 15.5 18.7 19.0 18.6 0.0 8.3 29.7 17.7 19.9 15.7 21.7 Unfamiliar 37.1 30.3 19.1 32.0 30.4 31.1 30.6 30.8 14.6 33.3 36.1 36.2 27.1 37.8 24.5 D. Kelly Armstrong Favorable 45 Unfavorable 16 Neutral 20 Unfamiliar 19 Favorable 60.8 35.2 16.4 36.6 47.5 47.7 41.6 44.9 50.0 52.8 37.0 36.4 51.0 40.4 48.3 Unfavorable 5.7 8.0 38.2 12.2 17.5 13.5 18.4 16.9 20.8 22.2 3.1 15.5 17.6 12.0 19.8 Neutral 17.4 35.4 20.2 30.9 15.9 21.5 18.6 19.6 8.3 5.6 30.1 22.0 17.4 18.8 21.0 Unfamiliar 16.0 21.4 25.2 20.3 19.1 17.3 21.3 18.6 20.8 19.4 29.8 26.1 14.0 28.8 10.9 10

Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as president? Would the be somewhat or strongly [approve/disapprove]? Strongly approve 47 Somewhat approve 17 Somewhat disapprove 5 Strongly disapprove 28 Don t know/no opinion 3 Strongly approve 70.9 19.8 8.6 48.8 45.9 47.7 45.7 47.3 35.4 44.4 42.8 42.0 47.1 47.9 45.6 Somewhat approve 20.2 23.1 8.4 12.2 18.5 18.9 14.9 16.9 0.0 0.0 22.7 16.1 19.4 15.4 18.0 Somewhat disapprove 2.3 6.5 11.1 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.0 20.8 13.9 4.5 9.7 4.4 6.4 4.5 Strongly disapprove 3.2 46.3 70.4 25.5 29.2 25.0 31.2 27.8 43.8 33.3 27.8 26.5 26.7 25.7 30.5 Don t know/no opinion 3.4 4.3 1.5 7.6 1.2 3.1 2.7 3.0 0.0 8.3 2.2 5.6 2.4 4.6 1.3 11

We have just a few more questions for statistical purposes... AGEG Over 40 73 Under 40 27 EDUC. What is the highest level of education that you have completed? No College 47 College 53 INCOME. What was your total household income for 2017? Less than $40K 21 More than $40K 51 Don t know/refuse 28 RACE. Would you say that you are... White 90 Black 2 Hispanic 1 Other 7 GENDER. (by observation) Male 48 Female 52 12

PID3. Republican 59 Independent 9 Democrat 31 PID7. Strong Democrat 16 Weak Democrat 7 Lean Democrat 9 Independent 9 Lean Republican 11 Weak Republican 13 Strong Republican 36 P16. Did you vote for [RANDOMIZE: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton ], or someone else in the 2016 Presidential Election? Donald Trump 59 Hillary Clinton 23 Someone else 11 Don t know/remember 7 13

About Strategic Research Associates The principals at Strategic Research Associates, LLC are James Henson, PhD and Joshua Blank, PhD. They have played major roles in political polling and research at the state and national level for more than a decade. They are based in Austin, Texas, and can be contacted at SRATEXLLC@gmail.com. 14