THE STATE UNVE!?Si OF NEW JEi?SEY FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY AUG. 12 3.984 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN p ica.i I LjLK RELEASE: SL/EP4-l The Eagleton Institute of Pofltics (EP53 l) Wood Lown Noson Campus New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/828-2210 RELEASE IN F O.RM AT I ON A story based on the data described in this release will.appear in the Sunday Star Ledger. Other newspapers are welcome to use this copyrighted information in Sunday editions as we1; electronic media may release after 6:00 P.M. Saturday (8/ll/S4) NEW JERSEY: STRONG FOR REAGAN--23 POINT LEAD Walter Mondale trails far behind Ronald Reagan in New Jersey, a state many feel is crucial to his chance of beating the President in November s election. After interviewing over 600 registered voters between July 30 and August 6, the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll shows Reagan leading Mondale by a margin of 55 to 32 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The current 23 point gap is a dramatic change from May when Reagan held only a 5 point advantage over his Democratic rival. The survey shows that Mondale has become less popular with New Jerseyans since May, and that Reagan s popularity has increased even mare than Mondale s declined during this period. And, while Mondale s running mate Geraldine Ferraro is well liked, she does not appear to be a major factor influencing how people plan to vote. Reagan has increased his lead over Mondale across the board, but has picked up most among independentsand among blue collar workers who have traditionally supported Democratic candidates. The President s 18 point lead among independents in May has more than doubled to a margin of 38 points in August. New Jersey s independents The new survey also shows that Mondal&s support from members of his own party has dropped substantially from May when he led Reagan by 68 to 15 percent among Democrats. That 53 point plurality has declined by 18 points, as only 62 percent of ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: more Audio is available, on Sunday 8/12/84 from (201) 932-3605 (Rutgers Feature Phone). divide 63 to 25 for Reagan, with the remainder undecided.
I percent expressing no opinion. Impressions of the Republican are also more favorable than unfavorable by 48 to 21 percent, with 31 percent expressing no opinion. A clear majority of New Jerseyans are happy to see a woman on a national ticket. Overall, 56 percent--including 54 percent of men and 57 percent of women said their -more- EPS3 l 2 (SL/EP4-l) Democrats say they plan to vote for Mondale and fully one quarter--27 percent -say they will defect to Reagan. The slippage is particularly noticeable among blue collar households. This group gave Mondale a 19 point advantage in May, only to give Reagan a 13 point lead in August--a swing of 32 points. Poll director Cliff Zukin commented that the new findings were unexpected. ItTraditionally Democrats close ranks and become more supportive of their candidate after the primary contests are over and they see their party united at the convention. But with a healthy economy and no current U.S. active military involvement, many Democrats and independents are quite satisfied with the current leadership. The results are more a testimonial to Reagan than a condemnation of Mondale. The Star Ledger/Eagieton survey shows a dramatic increase in positive evaluation of Reagan. Favorable impressions of him outnumbered unfavorable ones by a 49 to 31 percent margin in May, increasing to a 65 to 25 percent advantage in August. New erseyans held similar views of Mondale as they did of Reagan in May, with favorable impressions outnumbering unfavorable ones by 46 to 33 percent. However, the August figures of 44 favorable to 39 unfavorable for Mondale combine for a drop of 8 points in favorability from May while Reagan was gaining 22 points. Reagan gained most among blue collar households, and also improved his image significantly among conservatives, independents and younger voters. The two Vice presidential candidates, George Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, are regarded similarly, although Ferraro is a bit more popular. Positive evaluations of the Democrat outnumber negative ones by a 53 to 21 percent margin, with 26
EP 53-1 10 percent said their reaction. was unfavorable, and 34 percent said they did not really care one way or the other. While there is strong support for women having equal opportunity to seek elective office, and while Representative Ferraro is well liked, New Jerseyans do not necessarily see her as an exceptional candidate. Most 57 percent said she is as qualified as others who have run for Vice President in qualified than others,compared to only 7 percent who felt she is more qualified. In assessing the results, Zukin noted that almost 80 percent of those choosing Mondale or Reagan said their mind was firmly made up. He commented, It will be dramatic happens. With an incumbent President,most people vote on the basis. of a don t really ask if the other fellow can do better. And right now the answer is decidedly yes. 30-- (SL/EP4 l) 3-- - general reaction to seeing a woman run for Vice President was favorable. Only the last few elections. But 19 percent said they felt Ms. Ferraro was less The remainder expressed no opinion. very difficult for Mondale to catch Reagan--almost impossible unless something very simple question, Is he doing a good job?. If the answer is yes they Copyright, The Eagieton Institute/Newark Star-Ledger, 1984.
By Party August May Might Change 22 22 30 29 20 22 16 12 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (187) (354) (287) (325) (279) (243) (328) (601) THE STATE UNVEPSTh OF NEW JERSEY RUTGERS (\ Wood Lawn. Neison Campus New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/828-2210 The Eageton Insifiute of PoIfics BACKGROUND MO--PELEASE SL/EP4-i (EP53-l) AUGUST 12, 1984 The latest Star Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between July 30 and August 6 when a rand sample of 804 New Jerseyans (18 and older) was interviewed by telephone. Figures in this release are based on the 637 respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they would definately or probably vote in November s election, and are subject to a sampling error of 4 percent. Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows: If the election for President was held today and you had to choose between Walter Mondale, the Democrat; or Ronald Reagan, the Republican; who would you vote for? * Mondale Reagan Undecided Total (n) Registered Voters August, 1984 32 55 13 100% (619)* May, 1984 39 44 16 9% (59) --Democrats 62 27 10 99% (186) ----Independents 25 63 13 101% (226) ---Republicans 5 88 6 99% (163) --Democrats 68 15 16 99% (207) --Independents 31 49 20 100% (255) Republicans 7 84 9 100% (133) *Respondents saying they would not vote for President have been excluded from the table. - Are you very sure about your choice or do you think you might change your mind before election day? Auu st1984 _198 1976 Oct - 1972 Mondale Reagan Carter Reagan Carter Ford McGovern Nixon Sure/Firm 78 78 70 71 80 78 84 88
E53 l Undecided voters were asked, At this moment do you lean more towards Mondale, or more towards Reagan? Combining responses to the questions about voting intention, firmness of support, and leaners produces the following distribution. Now I d like to get your general feelings ci the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. For each name please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression. If you don t have an opinion on some just say so. First, how about... do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (him/her)? Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion/ Somewhat Somewhat Very Don t know Total (n) A. Ronald Reagan Democrat 1 26 24 26 12 100% (192) Independent 34 38 10 9 9 100% (229) - Republican 65 28 2 1 4 100% (164) B. Walter Mondale Independent 8 32 23 22 15 100% (229) -Republican 3 21 30 28 18 100% (637) C. George Bush D. Geraldine Ferraro Is your general reaction to the fact that a woman is running for Vice President favorable or unfavorable, or don t you much care one way or the other? (IF Very Somewhat Somewhat Very No favorabl e favorable unfavorable unfavorable opinion Total (n) Total Registered 39 17 4 6 34 100% (627) Sex --men 36 18 4 5 37 100% (311) women 42 15 5 7 31 100% (316) Party Democrat 52 14 3 5 26 100% (192) Independent 37 18 2 6 38 101% (229) Republican 27 19 7 11 36 100% (164) ---Dnocrat 24 39 15 6 16 100% (192) (SL/EP4 l) firm soft lean Undecided lean soft firm Tàtal (n) MONDALE Pure REAGAN - Total Registered 25 7 2 7 5 12 43 101% (619) IF FAVORJBLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)? Next, how about... August 34 31 12 13 10 100% (637) May 23 26 13 18 20 100% (600) ByParty -Aug. August 12 32 22 17 18 101% (637) May 17 29 17 16 22 101% (600) By Party--Aug. August 16 32 12 9 31 100% (637) August 28 25 12 9 26 100% (637) FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)?
EP53 l 3 (SL/EP4 i) Compared to other people who have run for Vice President in the last few elections, do you think Geraldine Ferraro is more qualified, less qualified or equally qualified? 1 More Less Equal Total (n) Total Registered 7 19 57 18 101% (627) Sex men 8 23 52 17 100% (311) women 5 15 62 18 100% (316) Party Democrat 10 12 61 16 99% (192) -Independent 5 18 57 20 100% (229) Republican 3 28 55 14 100% (164) VOTE FOR PRESIDENT New Jersey AUGUST C
Ixcome under 15,000 16 3 19 1 21 20 24 14 10 15 to 30,000 9 14 23 17 33 16 12 15 3 over 30,000 28 42 14 38 56 18 7 9 16 Age 18 29 6 22 28 19 53 34 28 13 15 30 49 15 28 13 25 43 18 11 7 4 50 64 8 17 25 11 29 18 10 6 4 10 25 15 22 38 16 15 12 27 EP53 l 4-- (SL/EP4 1) - The table below shows changes in the voting intentions and candidate evaluations of various groups in the electorate. The vote intention entries in May and August are made by subtracting the percentage of each group planning to vote for Mondale from the percentage planning to vote for Reagan. Undecided voters are omitted. Thus in May the 44 to 39 percent Reagan lead over Mondale yields a figure of ±5. In August the 55 to 32 percent margin gives a difference of ±23. The third column is the difference between the May and Aug. margins. Negative numbers indicate a Mondale advantage. All other numbers are positive and indicate a Reagan advantage. The candidate evaluation entries are similar. May and August columns show the percentage of unfavorable impressions subtracted from the percentage of favorable ones. Negative numbers indicate more unfavorable than favorable comments about a candidate by the specific group. The difference column represents the change between May and August. Positive numbers indicate a more favorable evaluation; negative numbers indicate a less favorable Image in August than May. Vote Intention Cand. Eval. Reagan Cand. Eval. Mondale May Aug. Diff. May Aug. Diff. May Aug. Diff. Total 5 23 18 18 40 22. 13 5 8 Party Docrat 53 35 18 20 12 8 39 42 3 Independent 18 38 20 22 53 31 11 3 14 --Republican 77 83 6 80 91 11 36 36 0 ideology Liberal 25 8 17 3 11 14 30 21 9 Moderate l 15 14 20 34 14 22 13 8 Conservative 42 60 18 39 60 29 9 21 12 ton Blue Collar 19 13 32 8 58 50 25 16 9 White Collar 19 30 11 28 52 24 3 0 Self Employed 28 32 4 37 35 2 21 16 15 Sex - male 14 31 17 32 42 10 9 0 --female 4 16 20 9 37 28 18 9 Education Less than i.s. 16 5 21 12 22 10 25 16 - H.S. Graduate 3 27 24 18 46 28 16 1 15 More than H.S. 21 31 10 26 46 20 4 3 1