Wisconsin s Unemployment Rates Actual and Projected 9.0% 8.3% 8.9% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.2% 6.0% 5.0% 4.3% 5.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.3% 5.6% 5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Some Things You May Not Wish To Know About Wisconsin Wisconsin is a low wage state. Wisconsin has low produccvity per worker. Wisconsin has a low post secondary educaconal afainment level. Wisconsin is growing slowly compared to U.S. Wisconsin is one of fastest aging states.
Wisconsin is a Low Wage State Our average wage is about $38,100 per job, per year. We rank 32nd in wages per job. The naconal average is about $44,600. Minnesota ranks 14th, at $44,400, Illinois ranks 8 th at $47,700. In the late 1970s we had higher wages than Minnesota.
Wisconsin is a Low ProducCvity State Gross State Product (GSP) per job was $80,731 in 2006. NaConal average GSP was $98,032. ConnecCcut with the highest was $141,144. Wisconsin ranked 42 nd in produccvity per job. If Wisconsin was at the naconal average, we would increase our Gross State Product by $50 billion. That s $9,300 per person in the state!
Wisconsin s Post- Secondary EducaConal Level Is Not High We rank 31 st in post secondary educaconal afainment. We rank 30 th in baccalaureate level degrees. We rank 36 th in masters or higher afainment. We rank 9 th in associate s degrees. We rank 11 th in students majoring in science and engineering per populacon. 44 th in science and engineering majors in work force.
Wisconsin is a Slow Growing State We rank 30 th in growth. Natural growth is parccularly slow, in migracon growth is not fast. Our growth is about 60 percent as fast as the United States, at large. Our present growth is likely to slow.
Wisconsin is Aging Rapidly The state s baby- boom cohort is unusually large. Almost 31 percent of Wisconsin s populacon are baby- boomers, decreasing, but slowly. NaConally, about 27 percent of populacon are baby- boomers, but decreasing rapidly.
The Demand Side Of the Labor EquaCon Three factors affeccng the demand for workers: 1. The number of jobs has concnued to grow, uncl now; 2. The demand for replacement workers is expanding; 3. The aging populacon needs more and more services.
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage and Salary Jobs UnCl Now Have ConCnued to Grow 3,500,000 3,000,000 Nonfarm Jobs 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000-1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Wisconsin Nonfarm Wage & Salary Jobs Although we have been adding an average of 36,000 jobs per year, that growth will stop for the next few years. There will likely be a loss in total jobs in 2009 and again in 2010. There will be a few industries that will not be hit as hard as others, parccularly health care. Smart companies will find ways to hold on to smart workers. Watch the economic recovery plans!
Wisconsin Residents Turning 65 Years Old 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
Wisconsin Residents Turning 65 Years Old We don t know how the wealth effect will play out in recrement plans. Workers have been recring earlier than 65, but plans will change somewhat. Older workers who lose their jobs may not return to the job market, but older workers who don t lose their jobs will likely stay on longer.
Demand Is Strongest Where Supply Is Weakest 1. Much of the older populacon lives in more remote areas. 2. Much of the tourist industry is in remote areas. 3. Manufacturing in Wisconsin tends to be in rural areas.
The Supply Side Of the Labor EquaCon Five Factors AffecCng Supply of Workers: 1. The number of entry level workers is diminishing; 2. There will be lifle increase from increased female parccipacon; 3. There is a sizeable commucng net loss; 4. The brain drain is real; 5. Wisconsin is low in net gain from migracon.
Wisconsin Births 1940 to Present 97,200 82,300 77,200 72,500 72,300 69,289 55,000 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
United States Births 1940 to Present 4,257,850 4,179,000 3,632,000 3,731,386 3,612,258 4,058,814 2,559,000 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Female Labor Force ParCcipaCon Wisconsin is at the top or very nearly at the top of states per female labor force parccipacon rates. Approximately 72% of females 16 years old and older parccipate in the labor force in Wisconsin. Approximately 65% of females 16 years old and older parccipate in the labor force in U.S.
Wisconsin has a strongly negacve state- to- state commucng raco Approximately 120,000 workers along Wisconsin borders cross state lines to work. 100,000 or those workers live in Wisconsin and leave the state to work. About 20,000 live in neighboring states and come into Wisconsin for work. Wisconsin borders Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. The raco is posicve only for Iowa.
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real Indiana Fiscal Policy InsCtute Net MigraCon 122.4% 99.4% 112.0% 103.1% 98.2% 85.9% 67.3% 75.9% Indiana Illinois Michigan Ohio Wisconsin Kentucky North Carolina U. S. Average
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real Indiana Fiscal Policy InsCtute RetenCon 81.6% 79.6% 74.8% 80.2% 69.1% 71.3% 57.8% 61.6% Indiana Illinois Michigan Ohio Wisconsin Kentucky North Carolina U. S. Average
The Legendary Brain Drain is Real Minneapolis Federal Reserve States 1989 College Graduates 1999 College Graduates Ad l College Graduates 1989 to 1999 AddiConal Graduates From State Gain/Loss Minnesota 577,920 953,920 376,000 234,945 141,055 Montana 106,977 134,160 27,183 42,976 (15,793) North Dakota 89,244 89,200 (44) 45,072 (45,116) South Dakota 79,672 110,848 31,176 40,669 (9,493) Wisconsin 571,725 790,600 218,875 269,647 (50,772) Minn Fed Res District 1,425,538 2,078,728 653,190 633,309 19,881
MSAs That AFract College Graduates City City 1. Atlanta 9. San Diego 2. Denver 10.Houston 3. San Francisco 11.Chicago 4. SeaFle 12. Los Angeles 5. Dallas 13.Tampa 6. Phoenix 14.Miami 7. Minneapolis 15. New York 8. Washington, D.C. 16.Boston
MigraCon Into Wisconsin Has Lagged Approximately 12 percent of United States resident populacon is foreign- born. Highest level since 1920s. Approximately 4.2 percent of Wisconsin resident populacon is foreign- born. Some in migracon from neighboring states, i.e. Illinois and Minnesota. (Kenosha and Walworth, and St. Croix and Pierce counces)
A Word of CauCon The economy is transiconing from tradiconal to new. Recessions speed transicons Economies will concnue to be transformed! It is a major mistake when economic development officials ignore or dismiss the structural changes that are being generated by the New Economy.
What is the New Economy? The New Economy is knowledge driven. The New Economy is global. The New Economy is entrepreneurial. The New Economy is rooted in informa3on technology. The New Economy is defined by innova3on. The New Economy is vola3le.
What is Knowledge AcCvity? The intangible ability to use exiscng facts and understandings to generate new ideas. Knowledge is embedded in the educacon, experience, and ingenuity of the wielder of knowledge. Knowledge is the ability to use what you have learned. Knowledge is the value- added component of the market.
New and Old Economies Issue Old New Markets Stable Dynamic Scope of compeccon NaConal Global OrganizaConal form Hierarchical Networked ProducCon system Mass produccon Flexible produccon Key factor of produccon Capital/labor InnovaCon/ideas Key technology driver MechanizaCon DigiCzaCon CompeCCve advantage Economies of scale InnovaCon/quality RelaCons between firms Go it alone CollaboraCve Skills Job- specific Broad and changing Workforce OrganizaCon Man Intrapreneur Nature of employment Secure Risky State New Economy Index Kauffman FoundaCon
Knowledge, ProducCvity, & Income Although educacon is the great predictor of wages and income, the real cause is produccvity. Knowledge, by enabling innovacon and creacvity, provides the myscc value- added to the product or service. Knowledge supercharges goods and services. Find states with high educaconal afainment and you ll usually find high produccvity and high wages.
Wages, EducaCon, Knowledge Knowledge Rich Economies Wage Rich Economies EducaCon Rich States Alaska California California California Colorado Colorado Colorado ConnecCcut ConnecCcut ConnecCcut Delaware Delaware District of Columbia District of Columbia District of Columbia Illinois Illinois Kansas Maryland Maryland Maryland MassachuseFs MassachuseFs MassachuseFs Michigan Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota New Hampshire New Hampshire New Hampshire New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New York New York New York Rhode Island Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington
ProducCvity Comparisons The top 12 states averaged $118,530 in GSP per job in 2006. The bofom 20 states averaged $80,254. That s a difference of $38,276 per job! Had the bofom 20 states matched the naconal average, they would have generated an addiconal $17,777 per job. That s $29.4 billion per state!
MSAs That AFract College Graduates City City Atlanta Denver San Francisco SeaFle Dallas Phoenix Minneapolis Washington, D.C. San Diego Houston Chicago Los Angeles Tampa Miami New York Boston
Metro Area Super Metros 2007 Population Percent Growth Las Vegas, NV 1,836,333 31.8% Raleigh, NC 1,047,629 30.2% Phoenix, AZ 4,179,427 27.5% Austin, TX 1,598,161 26.3% Riverside, CA 4,081,371 24.5% Atlanta, GA 5,278,904 23.3% Charlotte, NC 1,651,568 23.2% Orlando, FL 2,032,496 22.7% Houston, TX 5,628,101 18.7% Dallas, TX 6,145,037 18.2%
Mid- size Dynamic Metros Metro Area 2007 Population Percent Change Greeley, CO 243,750 33.2% Cape Coral, FL 590,564 33.0% Provo, UT 493,306 29.8% Myrtle Beach, SC 249,925 22.1% Boise City, ID 587,689 25.3% Ocala, FL 324,857 24.8% Port Lucie, FL 400,121 24.8% Fayetteville, AK 435,714 24.6% Naples, FL 315,839 24.3% McAllen, TX 710,514 23.9% Wilmington, NC 339,511 23.1% Laredo, TX 233,152 19.8% Bakersfield, CA 790,710 19.2%
Smaller Dynamic Metros Metro Area 2007 Population Percent Change Palm Coast, FL 88,397 74.8% St. George, UT 133,791 46.6% Bend, OR 154,028 32.1% Gainesville, GA 180,715 27.9% Prescott, AZ 212,635 25.9% Lake Havasu City, AZ 194,944 24.8% Coeur d Alene, ID 134,442 22.7% Sioux Falls, SD 227,171 20.6%
A TransiCon, Economic to Demographic A global economy, where markets transcend and ignore naconal borders, diminishes and erodes the power and influence of the nacon state. NaCons and states have two choices; 1. A broad distribucon of educacon and wealth, or 2. A broad distribucon of ignorance and poverty. Minority populacons, which are not wholly parccipacng in the New Economy, will cost states somewhere down the line.
The New Economy Characterized by: Knowledge accvity; 1. InnovaCve 2. CreaCve 3. AdapCve 4. CollaboraCve 5. Technology based Global markets; Instant communicacon; VolaClity; Lessened government influence.