International Trends Affecting Nature Tourism Dr. Paul F. J. Eagles University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Trends Eleven trends in political, social, demographic and technological sectors affecting nature- based tourism. Impacts on both demand and supply. Global Nature tourism is truly international. 1
Trends 1. Increasing education levels. 2. Aging populations. 3. Communication technology. 4. Weakness in government tourism capability. 5. Oversupply of destinations. 6. Civil unrest, war, terrorism. 7. Increasing energy cost. 8. Global climate change. 9. Shift of park finance from taxes to user fees. 10. Increase in public private cooperation. 11. Increase in ecolodges. Costa Rica National Parks Tourism 1200000 Nationals 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Foreigners Totals 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 US National Parks Visitation 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000000 000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 Recreation Visits Non-recreation Visits Total Visits Peak in Recreation Visits 0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2
Global Rates of Visitation Change 1995 to 2005 Global Changes in Park Visits 1992 to 2006 Trend 1: Increasing Education Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 Share of the 25-64 Populations with Tertiary Level Education OECD Figures Canada USA Ireland Japan Finland Sweden Norway Australia New Zealand Belgium Denmark OECD UK Switzerland Iceland Korea Spain Netherlands France Germany EU Greece Luxembourg Mexico Austria Hungary Poland Czech Rep Slovak Rep Italy Portugal Turkey 3
Impact on Demand Highly-educated people are the primary users of national parks, wildlife refuges and ecolodges. Service workers see the natural environment as a source of experiences, not consumer products. High demands for service quality and educational services. Impact on Supply Global competition. Coordination amongst public and private sectors is necessary. Destination i coordination i essential. Increased specialization. Opportunity for innovation. Trend 2: Aging Population Structure Massive increase in the developed world in the numbers of people over the age of 50. In the USA, 79 million baby boomers (1946-1964). In Canada, 10 million baby boomers. By 2010, there will be 140,000,000 people over age 50 in Europe. Massive levels of retirement between 2010 and 2020. 4
McDonald, L. 2005. Gendered retirement: The welfare of women and the new retirement. Chapter 10 in L.O. Stone (ed). New Frontiers of Research on Retirement. Statistics Canada, 75-511-XIE. Travel In the United States, boomers travel more and spend more than any other age category. Enjoy high disposable income. Tend to be stressed workaholics. Demanding, quality-oriented. Active, healthy and intent on staying young. Interested in learning and new experiences. Adventurous. Impact on Demand The tourism market now has the largest population in history of people who are: Retired or semi-retired Physically y capable Wealthy Interested in travel Abundant discretionary time Sophisticated consumers 5
Senior Groups Senior groups can be divided into two categories: well seniors and unwell seniors. In Canada, the average onset of a major disability that affects daily life is age 73. Each group of these two senior groups has a unique travel profile. Impact: Supply Ecolodges. Soft ecotourism. Specialized programs, such as for: single, older women unwell seniors Education travel. Bus tours. Trend 3: Communication Technology Vast increases in the speed and breath of communication channels. Digital convergence. High hl levels l of information i availability, anywhere, anytime. 6
Digital Convergence Impact on Demand For a minor cost, any tourism provider can communicate directly with any potential consumer. Increased demand is possible if consumers perceive the opportunity. Lower overhead cost for increasing demand. More discriminating demand Impact on Supply Suppliers must be highly competent with electronic communication. Consumers may have more information and more sophistication that service providers. Vast over supply of information. 7
Trend 4: Weakness in Government Capability Most parks and protected area agencies do not take tourism seriously. The political right does not want to pay taxes, the political left demands no user fees. As a result, most agencies have weakness in the willingness and capability to deal with tourism. Service Quality Gaps in Serengeti National Park Service Quality Variable Service Quality Gap (Mean Importance minus Mean Performance) Washrooms -1.29* Quality of Roads -1.10* Availability of Information -0.99* Security from Theft -0.82* Visitor Centre -0.46* Low Level of Crowdedness -0.41* Knowledge of Guide -0.25* Group Harmony -0.13 Friendliness of TANAPA -0.13 Staff Attractiveness of Park -0.09 Security from Wildlife -0.08 Attack Friendliness of Guide -0.08 Accommodation Chosen +0.01 Good Weather +0.54* Service Quality in Belize Ecolodges Service Quality Attributes Knowledgeable guides +0.54 Availability of trees and wildflowers +0.48 Staff provide efficient services +0.43 Friendliness Fi of staff tff +0.41 Cleanliness +0.40 Quality of the environment and landscape +0.38 Scenery +0.33 Design sensitive to natural and cultural environment +0.33 Decent sanitary condition +0.30 Availability of wildlife +0.11 Price +0.06 Value for money +0.02 8
Impact on Demand Park agencies are known for having weak information provision for potential users. Poor facilities and programs provide a negative image. Bad word-of of-mouth recommendations. Low return rate. Impact on Supply Weak or non-existent facilities. Active discouragement of visitation. Damage to natural environments. Tourism may gain a name of being damaging. Trend 5: Oversupply of Destinations Parks and protected areas cover over 11% of the world s surface. There are thousands of ecolodges. World Heritage designations i reach 1000. There is a much larger supply of natural destinations than there is demand for the benefits that come from visiting these destinations. 9
Impact on Demand Demand becomes more selective. Careful review of opportunities before selection. A potential consumer will search widely to find the desired travel benefits. Discriminating consumer. Impact on Supply Large number of parks with little or no visitation. Specialized services and programs. Increased service quality. More specialized training for tourism staff. Targeted fees. Increased fee levels. 10
Trend 6: Civil Unrest, War, Terrorism Personal travel is an optional, discretionary activity. It is quickly and negatively impacted by both real unrest and perceived problems. Bombers target tourist industry By Martin Chulov, John Kerin and Agencies October 15, 2002 Social Unrest and Tourism Countries with recent tourism declines due to social unrest: Zimbabwe (Nature Tourism, both consumptive and appreciative) Uganda (Nature Tourism) Indonesia (Cultural and Nature Tourism) Israel (Religious Tourism) Impact on Demand The demand drops quickly. Demand can recover, at least partially, if the conditions return to normal. Demand will deflect to another site. 11
Impact on Supply In the worst case, the supply is destroyed. Travel displacement to more favourable situation. If the situation i becomes more favourable, the supply can be renewed. Trend 7: Increasing Energy Prices International travel will be strongly affected by decreasing supplies of oil and gas and large increases in energy cost in the second decade of the 21 st century. World Annual Oil Production (Billions of Barrels) 1930-2050 12
World Annual Oil and Gas Production 1930-2050 Maugeri, L. 2009. Squeezing more Oil from the Ground. Scientific American 301(4): 56-63 US Fuel Price in Cents per Gallon Auto Fuel Price 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 13
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 US National Park Travel Distance Distance (Km) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Outcomes Higher energy prices. More funds going into energy, less into discretionary spending. Lowered long distance travel and international tourism. Increased short distance travel and use of urban and near urban parks. Movement from auto travel to airplane travel. Massive movement of money from energy consumers to energy producers. Impact on Demand Lowered demand across the board. Change in travel patterns. Less long-distance travel. More short-distance travel. 14
Impact on Supply Higher operating costs. More careful analysis of energy use and energy cost budgets needed for all activities. Opportunities i for those who use renewable energy. Trend 8: Global Climate Change Impacts on Demand Ecosystem changes affect travel patterns. People will carefully assess whether the supply has ecological integrity. Demand will not decrease, it will just reorient. A perception of travel now, when you have the chance. 15
Impacts on Supply Locations Changing ecosystems fundamentally change the attractions. Fire, floods, wind, and associated changes will alter locations. Tourism will be lost to other sites. Trend 9: Shift of park finance from taxes to user fees. Park management has a hard time competing for government budgets. Tourists are willing to pay for services they want. Increasingly, park management is shifting from government grants to tourism income. Financial Options for Park Management 1) Government grants based on taxes. 2) Tourism fees and charges. 3) Donations. Tourism Taxes Taxes Taxes Tourism Tourism 16
Ontario Parks Budget 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 32 Percent Cost Recovery 56 82 78 1990 1996 2001 2006 Park Agencies with Tourism Income Greater than 50% of Budget Kenya Wildlife Service. Tanzania National Parks. SANParks. Ontario Provincial Parks. Niagara Parks Commission. Trend 10: Increases in Public Private Cooperation Tourism is a complicated business with heavy global competition. Only with all of society working together can it reach its potential. Each part of the economy has a role. All parts (government, park agencies, NGOs, profit making sector, visitors) must cooperate. Australia is the world leader in this respect. 17
CRC for Sustainable Tourism Sustainable TourismCooperative Research Centre established under the Australian Government s Cooperative Research Centre Program Trend 11: Increase in Ecolodge Development Ecolodge development occurring in some countries: South Africa, Costa Rica, Australia. Combination of hotel, resort, ecology concepts. Innovation and uniqueness. Undertaken by profit making and not profit organizations. Weak brand development. 18
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Impact on Supply Increasing specialization. Innovation. Service quality. Encourages local, small scale involvement. Fragmented market. 22
Impact on Demand Example of specialized market demand, by highly educated, experience-seeking people. Encourages risk taking by travellers. Encourages personal enrichment. Creates higher levels of expectations. Overall Responses Dealing with all of these trends and the many combinations of these trends requires coordinated actions. Responses Institutional capability to recognize and respond to changes quickly. Continuous, integrated data collection across many spheres (ecology, market demand, competitors, service quality). Effective information distribution. Cooperation amongst governments and all aspects of the supply chain. 23
Responses Integrative planning. Disaster and incident planning. Ensure that nature tourism is carefully linked to other aspects of the travel experience. Vastly upgraded tourism capability in government parks agencies. Effective standards. Challenge The next 25 years will see the greatest management challenges ever. Park and other nature tourism managers must be increasingly skilled at political negotiation, community relations, finance, tourism, and regional ecological management. Research and management innovation is fundamental. 24