Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the Intermountain West William H. Frey The Brookings Institution www.frey-demographer.org
2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share of the Voter Population Fast-Growing and Slow-Growing Purple States Where did Minorities Win the Election for Obama? Current Demographics and Polling in the Mountain West
Democratic Margins by Race 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 91 77 36 27 20 12-17 -12 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Number of Voters: 2004, 2008 millions 20 14.0 16.1 10 7.6 9.7 2.8 3.6 0 Blacks Hispanics Asians 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population: Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* 77% 21% 2% 30% 66% 4% 42% 13% 45% 53% 22% 25% Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters * Non Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 Supplement
Turnout Rates, 2004 and 2008 70 60 50 67 66 60 65 47 50 48 45 40 30 20 10 0 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Turnout Rates, 18-29 Year Olds 60 50 40 30 52 52 50 58 36 41 32 43 20 10 0 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians 2004 2008 Source: Lopez and Taylor, Pew Hispanic Center, 2009
2004-8 Growth: Eligible Voters and Voters 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 30.3 28.4 21.4 20.4 15.1 6.8 2.1 0.5 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Eligible Voters Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
2004 vs 2008 Comparisons 100% Population Eligible Voters Voters 80% 60% 40% 68 65 76 73 79 76 20% 0% 2004 2008 2004 2008 2004 2008 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November supplements
Hispanic Shares 2008 Populations, Voters States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Florida Colorado New Jersey New York Illinois 6 20 21 12 24 12 21 15 18 9 17 9 16 10 14 32 34 37 40 47 0 10 20 30 40 50 Voters Population Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2008 supplement
Blue Red and Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Solid Blue Solid Red Purple-Dem Purple-Rep
Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other
Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other
2008 Voter Profiles of State Groupings Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 0.8 Solid Blue Solid Red 0.8 16.1 1.6 8.3 7.8 1.7 5.1 9.8 10.7 7.5 14.5 72.5 88.5 72.9 75.2 Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* * Non Hispanics Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 supplement
Fast-Growing vs Slow-Growing Purple State Growth, 2004-8 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 7.8-1.7 36.8 28.0 8.3 8.3 41.8 12.6 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians, Other Fast Growing Slow Growing Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 2008 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nevada New Mexico 80 73 56 55 2004 2008 2004 2008 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
Nevada Democratic Margins 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 89 73 54 12 21-3 -12-8 Total Whites Blacks Hispanics 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
New Mexico Democratic Margins 50 40 39 30 20 10 15 12 0-10 -20-1 -13-14 Total Whites Hispanics 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Florida, Virginia Voters: 2004, 2008 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Florida Virginia 76 71 81 74 2004 2008 2004 2008 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
Florida Democratic Margins 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 92 73 15 3-5 -15-14 -12 Total Whites Blacks Hispanics 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Virginia Democratic Margins 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 -50 84 75 31 6-8 -21-36 Total Whites Blacks Hispanics 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters: 2004, 2008 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ohio Pennsylvania 86 85 89 87 2004 2008 2004 2008 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
Ohio Democratic Margins 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 95 68 5-2 -6-12 Total Whites Blacks 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Pennsylvania Democratic Margins 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 90 68 44 44 10 2-3 -9 Total Whites Blacks Hispanics 2004 2008 Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Where Minorities Won for Democrats 2004 - Kerry Took 20 States 10 states-whites went Democratic (62 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for Dems (190 electoral college) Source: William H. Frey 2008 - Obama Took 29 States 19 states-whites went Democratic (223 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for Dems (142 electoral college)
2004 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities Source: William H. Frey analysis
2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities Source: William H. Frey analysis
2010 Population and Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity: US and Mountain West 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16 10 24 16 65 73 65 74 Total Pop Eligible Voters Total Pop Eligible Voters USA Mountain West Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
Total Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2010: Six Mountain West States 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41 44 New Mexico 10 10 24 19 32 84 87 73 55 57 Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity, 2010: Six Mountain West States 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 33 53 New Mexico 21 14 12 5 5 90 92 81 67 69 Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics
Party Affiliation: US Registered Latino Voters 70 (Registered Latinos) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010 Democrat Republican Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
Party with More Concern for Hispanics 60 (Registered Latinos) 50 40 30 20 10 0 y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010 Democrat Republican Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
Right Direction/Wrong Track? 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Whites Hispanics Whites Hispanics Country (Adults.6 MT West States) Right Wrong Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey State
Country: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
State: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Obama Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) 26 44 8 11 9 12 55 35 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Obama: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Bush Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) 17 25 15 16 17 15 44 51 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Palin Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adsult: 6 MT West States) 14 24 10 11 24 18 47 52 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Congressional Democrat Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) 12 23 13 18 17 23 57 37 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Congressional Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Congressional Republican Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) 15 14 17 16 26 23 42 47 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Congressional Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
State Democrat Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults 6 MT West States) 15 23 13 19 24 22 48 36 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
State Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
State Republican Favorability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Adults: 6 MT West States) 24 18 16 17 24 25 42 34 Whites Hispanics Unfavorable Neutral/NA Favorable Very Favorable Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
State Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Priority Issues for Whites (percent ranking issue as extremely important) 1 57% Jobs/Econ Growth 2 50% Schools 3 49% Federal Govt Spending 4 49% Illegal Immigrants 5 43% Crime and Drugs Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Priority Issues for Hispanics (percent ranking issue as extremely important) 1 63% Jobs/Econ Growth 2 63% Schools 3 59% Crime and Drugs 4 48% Environment 5 47% Health Care Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Obama Health Care Plan 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17 15 7 11 50 Whites 25 25 7 12 31 Hispanics Strong Oppose Oppose DK/Ref Support Strong Support Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Financial Reform 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29 31 19 29 10 16 12 11 26 17 Whites Hispanics Strong Oppose Oppose DK/Ref Support Strong Support Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Income Taxes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4 4 3 54 51 41 42 Whites Hispanics Too High About Right Don't Pay/DK Too Low Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Arizona Immigration Law 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29 50 18 Whites 57 28 12 Hispanics Not Far Enough About Right Goes Too Far Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
AZ Immigration Law: Goes Too Far Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Stop Illegal Immigration Flows Federal Involvement Level? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6 17 77 Whites 13 19 68 Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Illegal Flows: Need More Federal Involvement Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Deal with Illegals Here: 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Federal Involvement Level? 9 20 19 22 72 58 Whites Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Deal with Illegals Here: State Involvement Level? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 12 22 66 Whites 22 26 52 Hispanics More Same/DK Less Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Illegals Here : Need More State Involvement Whites and Hispanics - MT West States 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico Whites Hispanics
Immigrants: Strength vs Burden 45 42 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 Whites 28 Strength 23 Hispanics Burden Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Illegals: Pathway vs No Amnesty 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 35 31 Whites Pathway No Amnesty 46 23 Hispanics Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey