A Comparative Study for Risk Management for Industrialization between Thailand and Vietnam - Risk perceptions to the recent floods Kiyoto KUROKAWA* Resume This paper aims to investigate reasons for flood risks perception of the industrial areas in Thailand and Vietnam, and provide an insight into the importance of risk communication among local governments, industries, local universities and surrounding communities. Japan s most profitable companies built up factories in Thailand, so Japan faces the biggest impact from the floods. Some Japanese companies acknowledged the need to consider diversifying investment inside Thailand and to other countries. According to Bloomberg in November 2011, Thai floods may shift Japan investment to Indonesia, Vietnam. In this survey, we investigated the difference of flood risks between Thailand and Vietnam to understand the practical preparedness to the floods risks. 1. Introduction 1.1 Back ground and Research questions We had a series of big natural disasters in 2011 including Great East Japan Earthquake and huge floods in Thailand. We learned safety operations of factory ware essential to preserve production linkages worldwide. Now, we badly needed new disaster management. Disaster risk management refers to the systematic management of administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and abilities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society or individuals to lessen the impacts of natural and related environmental and technological hazards (United Nations Development Program, 2004). The motivation of the survey is to identify the potential flood risks in Thailand and Vietnam. There are many Japanese factories and if we lost their product supply, world industries will be severely affected by the lack of supply chain. The survey is expected to reduce the risks among the factory and industrial workers with the surrounding communities. Our research question is perceptions of the floods. Their risk perception will define their behavior, strongly. *Kiyoto KUROKAWA, Graduate School and Research Institute of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University Address: 79-1 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama 240-8501 JAPAN Tel/Fax: +81-45-339-4498 e-mail: kiyotok5@yahoo.co.jp
1.2 Significance of the Study This study will contribute to the awareness and knowledge of regional risk management in dealing with their concerns on safety industrial operation. Aside from the academic staffs, the local government administrators and industrial workers will be benefited from this study as it can help them improve and create new policies to find better ways to cater to the needs of their local community. The findings of this study can also serve as a useful guide to new local to local cooperation. It can also raise more awareness among the foreign private companies on the stability of the local economy. 1.3 Methodology A case study has been used in this research in order to meet the purpose. Since this survey is of a qualitative character, the empirical data has been collected through semi-structured interviews within three major respondent segments: perceptions of the prior floods in their region, neighbor regions (Thai floods in 2011) and preparedness. We conducted our study by looking at available secondary data, and have ensured the credibility of our study by evaluating various sources regarding the information required in order to answer our research questions. 2. Literature review 2.1 Review of the Thai floods in 2011 Flood protection is important in the industrial zones because of the risk of large scale damage to industry and private property. Dikes were constructed downstream of the Chao Phraya together with a number of pumping stations. In June 2011, heavy rainfall occurred in many locations throughout the month caused by the influence of the active southwest monsoon. Moreover during late June 2011, Thailand has dominated by the remnant of tropical depression "Haima" led to heavy rainfall in several areas especially in the northern part where flash floods and landslides has reported in some areas. In July 2011, downpour rain continued in many areas in addition with tropical depression "Nock-Ten" moved into the area of Nan province on 31 July 2011 before weakening to the low pressure cell covering the northern part. This brought heavy rain to several areas resulted in widespread flooding in north and northeast parts. However, associated with the high tide, severe flood and extensive damage has extended to the most areas of northern, eastern and western Bangkok and its vicinity. The rainfall amount of Thailand since 1 January to 31 October 2011 was 1822.4 millimeters, about 28 percent above normal. Seasonal rainfall from May to October in 2011 was above normal of 20 60% in northern part, but of 10-40% with below normal in some areas in 2
central part. And we must understand the man-made causes of floods as well. The most common man-made causes in Thailand are deforestation, uncoordinated urban development, over-abstraction of groundwater, and destruction of flood embankments. (Hoang[ ]) One of the big man-made reasons is the deforestation. The forest area was reduced from 166,000 km2 in 1942 to 106,000 km2 in 1983 and to 92,000 km2 in 1995. But, the entire region is usually flooded during the monsoon season, part of the ecological cycle that causes Thai people to adapt their lifestyles accordingly. Boats become the vehicle of transport and become a necessity for the rice harvest. Their houses in the Central Plains sit atop stilts. In addition, we must understand a common phrase used in Thailand, Mai pen rai, which translates to it s nothing in English, and it sums up the Thai philosophy fairly well. (Plocher[5] ) During our survey in Vietnam, we heard the last floods Thailand will be forgotten instantly. But people in Central Vietnam are always preparing the coming floods. This difference should be revealed in the coming surveys. 2.2 Review of the floods of Vietnam The two successive typhoons in 1985 are described as the most catastrophic disaster for 100 years, in which high waves combined with high tides destroyed the dike system and flooded a large area in the central part of Viet Nam. (Imamura [3]) A major flood in October 2003 killed at least 40 people in 6 provinces in the north- and south-central coast regions (OFDA/CRED [8]), and typhoon Muifa in November 2004 claimed 56 lives in the same area. The total number of lives lost by floods during 1995 to 2004 counts 7,500 throughout the country, with 23.8 million affected people and $1.87 billion economic loss. Shortly after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which triggered a powerful tsunami, the People's Committee of Da Nang approved the installation of 10 early tsunami warning stations throughout the city. This reaction represents their perception toward floods as well. 2.3 Significance of the Risk perception survey The importance of risk perception in shaping people s behavior and disaster risk management is examined in several studies. Slovic ([7]) emphasized the role of risk perception by indicating that the public relies on risk perception to evaluate hazard situation. Risk perception can influence both the design and operational aspects of disaster risk management. Accordingly, perception could be viewed as a process of transforming inputs (e.g. flood warning) to output (e.g. public mitigation response). People who perceive that they are vulnerable are more likely to respond to warnings and undertake protective measures. Thus, understandings of the people s risk perception will influence the effectiveness of the flood management strategy. 3
3. Flood Perception Survey in Central Vietnam 3.1 Survey methods and target area; Da Nang, Quang Nam and Thua Thien Hue Da Nang is the largest city in central Vietnam and one of the country s most important ports. Da Nang borders Thua Thien Hue Province across the Hai Van Pass to the north, Quang Nam Province to the south and west, and the ocean to the east. Da Nang has a tropical monsoon climate with two seasons: a typhoon and wet season lasting from September through March and a dry season lasting from April through August. Thua Thien Hue is a province in the North Central Coast of Vietnam. It borders Quang Tri Province to the north and Da Nang to the south, Laos to the west and the South China Sea to the east. The province has 128 km of coastline, 22,000 ha of lagoons and over 200,000 ha of forest. The economy of Quang Nam has been growing rapidly in recent years. GDP growth in 2010 was 12.7% and the goal for 2011 is 13.5%. Growth has been between 12 and 15% in the years from 2005 to 2007, mostly driven by a booming industrial sector. But at the same time, more than half of Quang Nam s area is covered by forests, making it one of the more forested provinces in Vietnam. A semi-structured questionnaire survey was done among 200 respondents from different lowland regions in central Vietnam. All regions were selected from hazard zones regarding to the flood influence. This field survey aims to investigate reasons for unusual overdevelopment of flood areas, provide an insight into the importance of risk perception of catastrophic flood risk in the industrial areas of Central Vietnam and establishes the need for industrial disaster management planning and disaster management education in the study location. The research initiative is designed and implemented under cooperation between Yokohama National University (YNU) and University of Da Nang (UoD) study teams from April 2012 as a primary stage. We had a series of discussions via TV conference system. Students propose many ideas to the questionnaire and selection of the interviewees. The primary research site is set to Da Nang, Quang Nam and Thua Thien Hue. The questionnaire has five sections to understand (i) the basic information of the interviewee, (ii) social conditions, (iii) perceptions for the floods of their own area and (iv) neighboring experience (Floods in Thailand in 2011) and (v) preparedness. 3.2 Findings from the interview survey in Central Vietnam Our questionnaire structure and main findings are the followings; (i) Basic information of the interviewee, We asked interviewee s name, age, address, gender, present job, family size, and educational 4
back ground. We found that the family size is not small, about 4 to 5, and had a strong unity. (ii) Social conditions, We asked hazard map issues, relationship among neighbor, household items, social activities such as NGOs and community groups, We found that all the respondents had close network with their neighbors including community activities. And evacuations conducted by these close links. (iii) Perceptions for the floods of their own area We asked experience of natural disasters, level of water in house, duration, floods speed to the peak of floods, warning from the government, frequency of usual floods, other natural disasters (e.g. storm, whirlwind, lightning, bank erosion, saline intrusion, and drought), and increase of natural disasters. Perception to the seasonal floods and preparedness were different among the people. The speed of the floods looks like quite high and they need accurate warning system. (iv) Neighboring experience (Floods in Thailand in 2011) We asked duration and financial impacts due to floods in Thailand. Industry related people well recognized floods in Thailand in 2011, but other people had only limited idea about it. (v) Preparedness. We asked items for the floods (e.g. foods, water, torch, rope, and medicine), warning system and reactions to the ordinary and catastrophic floods. Floods warning system was partly working but heavily depend on TV and by words of mouth including mobile phone. Local radio system should be improved, but the listeners of the radio program were limited. When it come typhoons, they will be lost their access to the electricity. On the other hand, before coming typhoons, it is necessary to share information among industrial workers. Web site for industrial operations should be improved. In case of the floods, the rescue operations will be conducted. But, according to the in-depth interviews to the rescue team, trees lining streets and electricity transmission lines were obstacles to the rescue boat operation. Those tree and electric wire should be re-arranged to have more easy access to the flooded area to conduct rescue operations by boat. The local offices prepared some boats already, but most of them were without an engine. The speed of the floods is quite high and sometimes they cannot use boats without the power of the engine. And industrial workers at the risk when they travel from home to their factory. We identified urgent needs of the emergency risk communication tools including web site, local radio station. Obviously, they need educational program and safety improvement measures toward the workers during their travel to the factory. 5
5. A comparative study, Conclusion and Policy Implications As far as we understand from this preliminary survey, the cultural aspects can be the most important factor to understand the preparedness of the flood risk. The risk perception survey in July 2012 demonstrated that individuals with different prior flood experience could be expected to behave differently during a flood event. This implies that flood warnings should be tailored to the characteristics of the target people. A conclusion drawn from this research focused on industrial area is the importance of joint risk education initiative among communities, industries and local government. When it comes to the formulation and implementation of floods management strategies, identification of the local risks are essential. Factors influencing the decision of risk management can be; the possibility to evaluate prior floods accurately. Factors influencing the decision of a local adaptation strategy of the floods risks can be; cultural differences, history and better knowledge of the prior and neighboring flood experiences. References [1] Climatological Center, Meteorological development Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department 2 November 2011 [2] Hoang Vinh Hung, Rajib Shaw and Masami Kobayashi, Flood risk management for the RUA of Hanoi Importance of community perception of catastrophic flood risk in disaster risk planning, Disaster Prevention and Management Vol. 16 No. 2, 2007 pp. 245-258 [3] Imamura, F. and To, D.V., Flood and typhoon disasters in Vietnam in the half century since 1950, Natural Hazards, Vol. 15, 1997, pp. 71-87. [4] Kei Mizuno, Ueru Tanaka, Rajib Shaw, Hirohide Kobayashi, Shozo Shibata, Masami Kobayashi, RS/GIS Application for Community-based Disaster Prevention and Environmental Management in the Central Vietnam, [5] Plocher Darcie, Mai Pen Rai,A Cultural Ecology of Thailand. Social Sciences Department, College of Liberal Arts, California Polytechnic State University, 2011 [6] Siripong Hungspreug, Wirat Khao-uppatum, Suwit Thanopanuwat, Flood management in Chao Phraya River basin, [7] Slovic, Paul., Perception of risk, Science, Vol. 236, 1987, pp. 280-285. [8] The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels. http://www.em-dat.net/ [9] United Nations Development Programme, Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development. UNDP, Geneva, 2004 [10] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. http://www.reliefweb.int/ 6