Are Democratic Governments Up to Meeting 21st-Century Challenges? Speakers: Moderator: Evan Bayh Gary Becker William Bennett Ronnie C. Chan Michael Klowden Monday, May 2, 211 5:15 PM - 6:15 PM
Democracy: The worst except Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time. Source: Churchill Centre and Museum at the Churchill War Rooms, London. - Winston Churchill
Number of countries (population > 5,) Rise of democracies Global trends in governance, 18-29 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 18 1815 183 1845 186 1875 189 195 192 1935 195 1965 198 1995 29 Source: Polity IV Project. Democracies Anocracies Autocracies End of World War II Dissolution of Soviet Union
More democracies on the way? Political unrest in the MENA region, 211 Source: United Nations.
Democracy: Good for doing business? Ease of doing business ranking, 211* * Countries without Polity2 scores in 29 are excluded. Average score of democracy 1 to 36 8 37 to 72 4 73 to 8 5 9 to 144 1 145 to 183 1 Sources: Polity IV Project, World Bank Doing Business 211, Milken Institute.
Democracy: Luxury for poor countries? Type* Democracies Anocracies Autocracies GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) Year 29 16,189.5aaaaaa 5,45.aaaaaa 15,988.6aaaaaa * Countries without Polity2 scores in 29 are excluded. Sources: Associated Press, Polity IV Project, World Bank World Development Indicator 211, Milken Institute.
Democracy = good governance? Worldwide Governance Indicators 29, percentile rank (-) Country Voice and Political Government Regulatory Rule of law Control of accountability stability effectiveness quality corruption Brazil 62.1 54.2 57.6 55.2 49.5 56.2 Russia 22.3 21.7 44.8 35.2 23.6 11.4 India 6.2 13.2 54.3 44.3 55.7 46.7 China 5.2 29.7 58.1 46.2 45.3 36.2 The only distinction between democracies and non-democracies? Source: World Bank Group.
Government effectiveness and GDP growth China, 1996-29 Score.25.15.5 -.5 -.15 -.25 Government effectiveness (L) GDP growth (R) Percent 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 -.35 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Source: World Bank Group.
Did the U.S. economy perform better under same-party control? U.S. real GDP growth, 197-2 Percent 8 6 4 Real GDP growth Growth relative to the rest of the world Clinton G.W. Bush Obama 2-2 -4-6 7 75 8 Carter 85 9 95 5 Sources: USDA, Milken Institute.
Is direct democracy the culprit behind California s staggering deficit? General fund ending balance, California US$ billions 12 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Proposition 13 passed in 1978-8 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 Source: California Department of Finance.
Belgium: Functioning with a dysfunctional federal government? General government gross debt (percent of GDP) Percent 14 13 12 1 Mark Eyskens Yves Leterme (1 st term) Yves Leterme (2 nd term) 9 8 7 81 86 91 96 1 6 11 Sources: IMF WEO Databse 211. Wilfried Martens (2 nd time) Jean-Luc Dehaene Guy Verhofstadt Herman Van Rompuy
Autocracy Anocracy Democracy Chicken and egg: Political reform and economic takeoff Cases of Taiwan and South Korea Score 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6 Sources: Polity IV Project and USDA. Polity2 (L) Taiwan Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average (R) South Korea 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6 Percent 12 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8
Autocracy Anocracy Democracy Chicken and egg: Political reform and economic takeoff Cases of Argentina and Brazil Polity2 (L) Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average (R) Sources: Polity IV Project and USDA. Argentina Score 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6 Brazil Percent 14 12 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Did dictatorship facilitate Chile s economic takeoff? Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average Percent 8 Pinochet's rule 6 4 2-2 -4-6 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 Source: USDA.
Turkish economic expansion under AK Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average Percent 8 6 Justice and Development (AK) Party won general election. 4 2-2 -4 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 Source: USDA.
Global investment in infrastructure 28 vs. 23 Selected countries, 25 constant prices US$ billions China U.S. India Japan U.K. Germany Brazil 69 15 132 12 69 9 67 6 18 235 292 38 58 95 2 4 6 8 Source: McKinsey Global Institute; McKinsey Global Economic Growth Database. Percent of GDP China U.S. India Japan U.K. Germany Brazil 3 2.2 3 2.8 3 2.8 2 2.2 3 1.8 6 8 6.7 7.7 23 28 2 4 6 8
General government gross debt Percent of GDP Percent 3 25 Projection Japan 2 15 5 United States China 2 22 24 26 28 2 212 214 216 E.U. India Source: IMF WEO Database 211.
Population aged 65 or over Percent of total population Percent 4 35 Projection Japan 3 25 2 15 5 Europe India 2 2 22 23 24 25 China United States Source: U.N. World Population Prospects: The 28 Revision.
Income inequality around the world Gini coefficient: measure of income dispersion <.25.25-.29.3-.34.35-.39.4-.44.45-.49.5-.54.55-.59 >.6 No data Source: CIA World Factbook 29, Wikipedia.
Ethnic and religious divides wreaked havoc in democratic Kenya Ethnicity Religion Kamba 13.5% Kisii 7.6% Mijikenda 6.6% Kikuyu 22.8% Traditional African religions 5.% Muslim 11.2% Hindu, Sikh, Baha'i and Jewish 1.% Kalenjin 17.3% Luo 13.8% Luhya 18.3% Christian 82.8% Source: U.S. Department of State.
Will China s ethnic diversity pose challenges to its goal of social harmony? Chinese Tai Turkic Burmic Manchu-Tungus Tibetan Mongolian Hmong-Mien Korean Mon-Khmer Tajik Bai Tujia Sparsely populated Uninhabited Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.
Shift from West to East Gross domestic product, PPP, 198-2 Percent 7 6 5 Western countries 4 3 2 Japan China 8 85 9 95 5 Source: IMF WEO database 211.
Number of countries (population > 5,) Rise of democracies 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 91 8 65 33 3 11 16 175 185 19 1945 1972 1991 21 29 Source: Polity IV Project.
Source: U.S. House of Representatives website.
International Benchmark of Educational Attainment 29 OECD Scores of 15-year-olds Score 6 562 555 546 543 Source: OECD PISA, 29 Top 5 Ranking Countries Mathematics Literacy Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Shanghai-China Singapore Hong Kong-China Korea Chinese Taipei Science Literacy Score 575 542 549 538 52 Rank 1 4 3 6 12 Mathematics Literacy Score 495 541 536 534 529 527 526 525 519 515 514 513 512 57 53 51 498 497 497 496 495 494 493 492 49 489 487 487 487 Rank 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3 3 3 OECD Average Top 5 Ranking Countries Finland Liechtenstein Switzerland Japan Canada Netherlands Macao-China New Zealand Belgium Australia Germany Estonia Iceland Denmark Slovenia Norway France Slovak Republic Austria Poland Sweden Czech Republic United Kingdom Hungary Luxembourg UNITED STATES Ireland Portugal Science Literacy Score 5 554 52 517 539 529 522 511 532 57 527 52 528 496 499 512 5 498 49 494 58 495 5 514 53 484 52 58 493 Rank 2 12 13 5 8 11 16 7 18 12 9 24 22 15 21 23 29 26 17 25 21 14 19 33 2 17 17
Percent of Students Proficient in Math: PISA 26