The High Cost of Low Educational Performance Eric A. Hanushek Ludger Woessmann
Key Questions Does it matter what students know? How well is the United States doing? What can be done to change things?
Answers to Key Questions Yes. It matters a lot how much students know. Not so well. U.S. students are not competitive internationally. Improving teacher quality is key. Nothing about schools is as important as highly effective teachers. Improving teacher quality meets with considerable resistance.
Education Quality and Economic Growth
Quantity of Schooling With quality control Without quality control
Finland Denmark Germany Iceland Sweden Norway France Italy Netherlands Korea Belgium Uruguay Spain Czech_Republic Greece Portugal Switzerland Brazil Austria OECD mean Ireland New_Zealand Hungary Israel Argentina Chile United_Kingdom United_States Australia Luxembourg Slovak Republic Poland Tunisia Mexico Paraguay Jamaica Jordan Malaysia Thailand Russian_Federa Turkey Indonesia Philippines Zimbabwe years of attainment Expected Schooling, 2003 Even developing countries go farther! 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0
Hong Kong-China Finland Korea Netherlands Liechtenstein Japan Canada Belgium Macao-China Switzerland Australia New Zealand Czech Republic Iceland Denmark France Sweden Austria Germany Ireland OECD average Slovak Republic Norway Luxembourg Poland Hungary Spain Latvia United States Russian Portugal Italy Greece Serbia Turkey Uruguay Thailand Mexico Indonesia Tunisia Brazil Mathematics Performance on PISA, 2003 Our competitors also learn more each year of school! -1.5-1.25-1 -0.75-0.5-0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 standard deviations from OECD average
Simulations of Quality Improvement Growth follows same pattern as past four decades Growth directly related to human capital of workers measured by international math and science tests School reform takes time (assumed 20 years)
Calculating the Benefits of Reform Improved schools take time to impact average skills of workers (2.5% replaced each year) Growth without improvement at 1.5% Present value of reform bonus discounted at 3% Calculated for lifetime of person born today
Percent addition to annual GDP Annual Gains from 25 Point Improvement 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Year
Percent addition to annual GDP Annual Gains from 25 Point Improvement 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Year
Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy Luxembourg Spain United States Poland Norway Slovak Republic OECD Hungary Denmark Germany Iceland France Ireland Sweden Austria Switzerland Belgium Czech Republic United Kingdom Australia New Zealand Canada Netherlands Japan Korea Finland % of Current GDP Catching Up to Finland 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0%
Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy Luxembourg Spain United States Poland Norway Slovak Republic OECD Hungary Denmark Germany Iceland France Ireland Sweden Austria Switzerland Belgium Czech Republic United Kingdom Australia New Zealand Canada Netherlands Japan Korea Finland % of Current GDP Catching Up to Finland 1000% 800% $103T 600% 400% 200% 0%
Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy Luxembourg United States OECD Spain Poland Germany Norway Hungary Slovak Republic Belgium France Denmark Austria Sweden Iceland Switzerland Czech Republic Ireland United Kingdom New Zealand Australia Netherlands Japan Canada Korea Finland % of Current GDP Bringing Up the Bottom 600% 400% 200% 0%
Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy Luxembourg United States OECD Spain Poland Germany Norway Hungary Slovak Republic Belgium France Denmark Austria Sweden Iceland Switzerland Czech Republic Ireland United Kingdom New Zealand Australia Netherlands Japan Canada Korea Finland % of Current GDP Bringing Up the Bottom 600% $72T 400% 200% 0%
Scale Scores National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), age 17 320 310 300 290 280 1970 1980 1990 1999 270 260 math reading science w riting Test subject
Public School Resources 1960-2000 1960 1980 2000 Pupil-teacher ratio 25.8 18.7 16.0 Master s degree 23.5% 49.6% 56.8% Experience 11 12 14 $/pupil (2006 $ s) $2,541 $5,823 $8,691
s.d. performance gain The Cost of Bad Teachers 1.00 0.75 Finland 0.50 Canada 0.25 0.00 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Percent deselected high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness
Key Questions Does it matter what students know? How well is the United States doing? What can be done to change things?
Answers to Key Questions Yes. It matters a lot how much students know. Not so well. U.S. students are not competitive internationally. Improving teacher quality is key. Nothing about schools is as important as highly effective teachers. Improving teacher quality meets with considerable resistance.