I..~... '\. ;'l THE CALIFORNIA...POLL san Francisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392 5766 Mervin D. Field, DireclOr Robert Heyer, EdilOr COPYRIGHT 1973 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATIO Release #784 For release FRIDAY, JUNE 8, 1973 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC SHARPLY DIVIDED ON IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to ITS VIEWS OF REAGAN AND AGNEW AS revocation if publ ication or broadcast takes place before PRESIDEI'lTIAL POSSIBILITIES release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to rtllease date. By Mervin D. Field While a majority of the California public thinks well of the job that Ronald Reagan is doing as Governor today, not as many people feel he would make a good president should he be elected in 1976. Reagan does not measure up as well in relative voter appeal as a presidential candidate as do several of the other major figures who have been named as potential candidates in 1976. VicePresident Spiro Agnew also receives far from unanimous endorsement as a potential president, Many Californians believe that he would do a poor job as president. The most appealing figures to Californians today are New York's Governor Nelson Rockefeller, Illinois' Senator Charles Percy, and former Texas Governor, John Connally. Senator Edward Kennedy also stands relatively high in voter appeal today as a potential president. lowest in relative voter appeal today ar~ Senator George McGovern and Alabama Governor George Wallace. These conclusions come from a recent survey made by The California Poll in midmay among a cross~section sampling of 1,0 43 adult Californians from all parts of the state. Each respondent was asked to rate eight men who have been discussed as being possible candidates for the presidency in 1976. Five are Republicans, and three are Democrats. The potential candidates, and the kind of job that the California public thinks each one would do as president is shown in the table below: Excellent Good Fair Poor No opinion ROCKEFELLER 5% 33 35 20 7 REAGAN 9% 27 26 36 2 AGNEW 7% 25 34 31 3 CONNALLY 5% 25 32 17 21 PERCY 4% 24 27 11 34 KENNEDY 13% 35 24 24 4 MC GOVERN 6% 23 28 39 4 WALLACE 8% 20 26 38 8 (MORE) The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. Its sale purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objectively. FinanCial support lor t\18 Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive rights within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in ns releases. Representative samples of adults ale interviewed at periodic intervals on election issues and other socially important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state. from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, political. and occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1,000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less than 600 interviews.
0_" " The Califomia Poll page 2 The main factor considered in assessing how well a prospective candidate is doing today is the ratio of favorable ratings to unfavorable ones that he gets. Thus, a man who gets a preponderance of favorable ones is judged to be doing better than a candidate who gets more nearly an even balance or who has a preponderance of unfavorable ratings. On this score, Senator Percy is judged to have an edge over Governor Reagan, for example, because he has a 28% favorable to 11% unfavorable rating (about 2.5 to 1) whereas Reagan1s ratio is 36% favorable to 36% unfavorable. Senator Percy is not rated byabout one out of three California voters, while Reagan elicits an opinion from 98% of those interviewed. Kennedy is very well known to California voters and has a 4SOk favorable to 24% unfavorable rating. John Connally, who recently switched his party affiliation to Republican, does quite well on the favorability ratio, getting a net favorable rating of 1.76 to 1, although he is unknown to 21% of the Californians interviewed. Senator McGovem and Governor Wallace are each well known to the Califomia public, but each receives a preponderance of negative votes at present as a potential president. The pol itical party with which respondents identify is a strong influence on how they rate the eight candidates. The sample on which this report is based reflects the following division with respect to respondents selfdesignated political party leanings: 56% Democrat, 37% Republican and 7% others. Democrats tend to downrate mc6t Republicans, and vice versa. It is significant to note, however, that Democrats are less inclined to give "poor job" ratings to GO P contenders Percy, Rockefeller, and Connally than they are to Reagan or Agnew. (MORE)
e "'. The California Poll page 3 "Here is a list of men who have been rumored as 1976 Presidential candidates. Please tell me now good a job you think each man would do as President should he get nominated and elected. " Excellent Good Fair Poor No opinion ROCKEFE LLER Total 5% 33 35 20 7 Democrats 2% 31 38 21 8 Republicans 8% 40 32 16 4 REAGAN Total 9% 27 26 36 2 Democrats 4% 14 26 53 3 Republ icons 16% 46 27 10 1 AGNEW Total 7% 25 34 31 3 Democrats 3% 16 37 42 2 Republ icons 14% 42 31 10 3 CONNALLY Total 5% 25 32 17 21 Democrats 3% 17 34 24 22 Republ icons 9% 43 26 7 15 PERCY Total 4% 24 27 11 34 Democrats 4% 23 24 11 39 Republ icons 4% 27 32 13 24 KENNEDY Total 13% 35 24 24 4 Democrats 18% 45 20 14 3 Republ icons 6% 21 27 41 5 MC GOVERN Total 6% 23 28 39 4 Democrats 8% 29 32 27 4 Republ icons 2% 12 23 57 6 WALLACE Total 8% 20 26 38 8 Democrats 7% 17 24 45 7 Repub Iicons 8% 26 28 30 8 30 COPYRIGHT 1973 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE1946 san Francisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 3925766 Mervin D. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY LOS Angeles Office, 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los Angeles 90005 3855259 Release '784,I,: DATES AND TIME OF INTERVieWING May 7 thru May 17; 1973, late aftemoonand evenings; oil day Safurd'ay POPULATION COVERED SIZE OF SAMPLE: Representative crosssection of California adult public. Total interviews 1043 Democrats 523 Republ icans 346 Others 174 THE QUESTION ASKED: "Here is a list of men who have been rumored as ]976 Presidential candidates. Please tell me how good a job you think each man would do as Presidentsh~uld he get nominated and elected. Let's take the first name on the list. Spiro Agnew: If Spiro Agnew were elected President, what kind of a job do you think he would do an excellent, good, fair, or poor job? What about (NEXT PERSON ON LlST)? The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. lis sole purpose is to report public opmion accurately and obiectively. Fmanclal support tor the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive rights within the city of publication. The Poll utililes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodic Intervals on election issues and other socially important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all paris of the state, from different siled communities. and of all age, economic, political, and occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1,000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less than 600 interviews,
It. ~bra~ Survpy Res P 8rch Center University of C~lifornia Berkeley, California 9472t SURVEY METHOD T Interviews are made facetoface with respondents in their homes. Sampled homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of the state and all neighborhoods properly proportionate chance to be included. More than 200 sampling points are used. A randomly selected address designates the starting point of a cluster of six to ten interviews, Up to three calls are made on each sampled address. One adult per household is interviewed, selected by a systematic procedure to provide a proper balance by age and sex. SAMPLING RELIABILITY The sample is designed to be selfweighted with respect to population factors, i,e., sampling points are selected with probabil ity in proportion to population. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and political and social opinions are also therefore assumed to be represented proportionately. Standdrd weighting procedures are used to adjust the final sample to population parameters whenever key variables deviate because of sampling variability or other factors. ' The samplij;lg reliability of data ~f~om this sample is shown below. These figures represent an estimate of average sampling tolerances at the 95% confidence level; that is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the obtairled survey findings by more than plus or minus the amount shown below, Sample size Plus/minus samplint;jtolerance (i n percentage poi nts) 1300 3.0 1000 3.5 800 3.9 600 4.5 400 5.5 200 7.7 100 50." '... '. POll OPERATION AND SPONSOR5HIP.' '.. 11.0 16.0 The California Poll is owned and operated by Field Research Corporation, an independent national pubiic opinion and marketing research agency with headquarters in San Francisco. The Poll was founded in 1946 and has been published continuously since that time. The Poll is nonpartisan. The cost of operating The Cal ifornia Poll is underwritten by a syndicate of 10 newspapers and three television stations in Cal ifornia. Each one pays an annual fee for exclusive publication or broadcast rights in its area. The Poll does not accept fees from any candidates, political parties, or individuals who have any interest in the data being published.