The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director

The Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program Bruce Katz, Director State of the World s Cities: The American Experience Delivering Sustainable Communities Summit February 1st, 2005

State of the World s Cities: The American Experience I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? III What do these trends mean for urban and metropolitan policy?

I What are the general demographic trends affecting the United States? Major demographic forces are changing the United States Population Growth Immigration Aging Internal Migration

Population Growth The 1990s presented the strongest growth in four decades US population growth (millions), 1990-2000 35 33 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30 25 24 23 22 20 15 10 5-1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

Immigration More than 1/3 of this population growth was driven by immigration Components of population change, 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 34.7% Net Immigration 65.3% Natural Increase

Immigration Despite a decade of rapid immigration, the share of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is lower now than in the 1900s Immigration, 1900-2000 Population in Millions 35 30 25 20 15 10 13.6% 14.7% 13.2% 11.6% 8.8% Foreign-born Population (in Millions) Percent of total Population 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4% 4.7% 11.1% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of Total Population 5 0 10.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 11.6 10.3 9.7 9.6 14.1 19.8 31.1 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000* 2% 0%

Aging At the same time, the US population is aging US Age Distribution, 1970 vs. 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1970 2020 Male 85+ Female Male 85+ Female <5 <5 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6% 6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%

Aging Minorities, however, have younger age structures than whites US Age Distribution, 2020 Male Whites Female Male Hispanics Female \ Source: U.S. Census Bureau Blacks API/AI Male Female Male Female

America s New Demographic Regions The New Sunbelt Migration growth states Melting Pot America The Heartland Diversity states Slow growth states

America s New Demographic Regions Source: William H. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

II What are the major trends affecting metropolitan areas? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Cities are growing, but metros are still sprawling Cities and suburbs are becoming more diverse The economy continues to restructure The geography of work is changing The geography of poverty is changing

Large cities grew faster in the 1990s than they did in the 1980s and 1970s 50 largest cities, population 1970-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12% 10% 8% 6% 6.3% 9.8% 4% 2% 0% -1.6% -2% -4% 1970s 1980s 1990s Source: THE BROOKINGS Brookings calculations INSTITUTIONof U.S. Census Bureau data

Several large cities gained population during the 1990s after losing population in the 1980s Selected cities, population growth 1990-2000 20% 15% 1980s 1990s 18.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10% 5% 5.7% 4.0% 6.5% 0% -5% -10% -5.1% -5.5% -7.3% -7.4% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis

Cities in growing metros grew, while those in slow growth metros generally declined City Category Number of Cities City Population Change MSA Population Change Rapid Growth (over 20%) 14 32% 25% Significant Growth (10 to 20%) 22 15% 22% Moderate Growth (2 to 10%) 36 7% 13% No Growth (-2 to 2%) 6 0% 11% Loss (below -2%) 20-7% 6%

Suburbs Still, suburbs grew faster than cities in the 1990s Percent population growth, 100 largest cities and suburbs 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 17.0% 10% 8.8% 5% 0% Cities Suburbs

Population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000 50% 40% 44% 37% City Suburbs Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 22% 20% 16% 19% 18% 10% 6% 4% 7% 9% 0% Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100

Suburbs Every household type grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in cities Population growth, 1990-2000 Source: William Frey. A Census 2000 Study of City and Suburb Household Change. Brookings, Forthcoming 35% 15% -5% All Households Married - no children Married - with children Other Family - no children Other Family - with Nonfamily Central City 8.6% -1.9% 5.5% 10.4% 19.0% 12.9% Suburbs 18.0% 10.3% 11.8% 20.1% 41.2% 26.9%

Central City Growth in the 1990s was fueled by Asians and Hispanics Population growth, 100 largest cities 1990-2000 50% 40% 42.6% 38.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 30% 20% 10% 6.4% 0% -10% -20% -8.5% Hispanic Black Asian White

If not for immigration, several of the nation s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s Population growth with and without foreign-born, 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.1% 1.7% 9.4% Overall 4.6% Without immigration 4.0% 2.6% 0% -5% -1.4% -3.9% -1.7% -3.9% -10% Dallas New York Minneapolis- St. Paul Chicago Boston

In aggregate, the racial makeup of the 100 largest cities has shifted. Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 17% 6% White 53% Black Hispanic 24% Other

In 2000, the top hundred cities became majority minority Share of population by race and ethnicity, 2000 7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 23% 44% White Black Hispanic Asian Multi-racial 24%

In many metro areas, the locus of immigration is shifting from the central city to the suburbs Washington region, share foreign-born by census tract, 2000 Source: Singer, At Home in the Nation s Capital, June 2003 O N I 270 MONTGOMERY I 95 ARLINGTON ALEXAN DRIA DISTRICT OF CO LU M B IA O UDOUN Route 50 FAIRFAX I 495 Percent Foreign Born (by Census Tract) Less than 5% I 66 PRINCE GEORG 5% - 15% 16% - 25% UQUIER 26%- 35% Greater than 35% PRINCE W ILLIAM I 95 C A CHARLES

Suburbs The percent of each racial/ethnic group living in the suburbs increased substantially Share of population by race and ethnicity, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 50% 40% 1990 2000 39% 33% 51% 55% 46% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% Blacks Asians Hispanics

Suburbs In addition, every minority group grew at faster rates in the suburbs than in central cities 100% Population growth by race and ethnicity, 1990-2000 50% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 0% -50% Black White Hispanic Asian Central Cities 5.0% -9.3% 46.2% 37.3% Suburbs 36.1% 4.8% 71.9% 63.4%

Suburbs Now more than 1 in 4 suburban households are minority Minority share of population, 1990-2000 30% 27.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of households 20% 10% 19.0% 0% 1990 2000

The nation s economy has shifted away from manufacturing and toward the service sector Employment by sector, US, 1970-2000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Manufacturing Services Retail Government 100% 75% 22% 19% 11% 32% FIRE 50% 15% 16% Wholesale Transportation/Utilities 25% Construction Agriculture/Mining 0% 1970 2000

The shift in the economy corresponds with an increased premium on educated workers which correlates with higher earnings Work-Life Earnings Doctoral degree $3.4 Estimates (millions), 1997-1999 Source: The Big Payoff: Educational Attainment and Estimates of Work- Life Earnings, US Census Professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree $1.6 $2.1 $2.5 $4.4 Some college $1.5 High school graduate $1.2 Not high school graduate $1.0

Educational attainment varies widely across cities Share of adults w/ bachelor s degree, 1990-2000 40% 30% 1990 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 10% 0% Minneapolis-St. Paul Atlanta Kansas City Newark

And there are significant disparities between race/ethnic groups Share of adults w/ bachelor s degree, 100% 88% 100 Largest Cities 1990-2000 80% 72% 75% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60% 49% 40% 37% 39% 20% 10% 14% 0% Hispanic Black White Asian % Bachelor's % HS

Nationally, one-third of jobs are located outside a 10-mile radius of the central business district Share of jobs within 3-, 10-, and greater- than-10- mile radius of center, 1996 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3-mile radius 10-mile radius Outside 10-mile radius 0% Nation

Employment decentralization But the level of employment decentralization varies widely across metropolitan areas. Share of metropolitan employment, 1999 70% 3-mile radius 10-mile radius Outside 10-mile radius 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% National Boston Dallas

Consequently, the highest share of metropolitan commutes begin and end within suburbs Share of commuters in the top 100 U.S. cities, 2000 40% 31% 36% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20% 8% 17% 7% 0% Cen City-Cen City Cen City- Suburb Suburb- Central City Suburb- Suburb Within MSA- Outside MSA

The number of poor people in U.S. metropolitan areas is large and has been increasing for the past two decades Number of poor residents (US Metropolitan Areas), 1980-2000 30 25 20 Number of People in Poverty 19.3 23.1 25.8 Source: Concentrated Poverty: A Change in Course, Kingsley and Pettit, 2003 (Millions) 15 10 5-1980 1990 2000

Poverty rates in central cities have declined over the 1990s, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, 1990-2001 20% 15% 19% 17% 1990 2002 Source: Current Population Survey, 2002 10% 9% 9% 5% 0% Central City Suburbs

In fact, the share of suburban residents living in poor suburbs has increased by almost 10 percentage points in the last two decades Share of residents living in poor, middle income, and affluent suburbs, 1980-2000 Source: Swanstrom, Casey, Flack, and Dreier, Pulling Apart: Economic Segregation among Suburbs and Central Cities in Major Metropolitan Areas, 2004 Poor Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes less than 75% of its metro area Affluent Suburb = Suburbs with per capita incomes over 125% of its metro area

But the number of people living in high poverty neighborhoods declined during the 1990s Population of high-poverty neighborhoods by location, 1990-2000 Non Metropolitan Suburbs Source: Paul Jargowsky, Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s 2003 Central City Total US 2000 1990 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Population (in thousands)

The New Competitive Cities Agenda 2 Build on Assets 3 Create Neighborhoods of Choice 1 FIX THE BASICS 4 Build Family Wealth 5 Influence Metropolitan Growth