Chapter 6: Human Population & Its Impact How many is too many? 7 billion currently; 1.6 mill. more each week ~2.4 bill. more by 2050 Developing 82% of population Developed high resource use; (more coming India & China) Population control? Opposing Viewpoints Cassandras Too many people already; something bad coming Cornucopians Technological advances will overcome environmental resistance More people = More stress? Infectious diseases Biodiversity losses Water shortages Ocean/Freshwater Pollution Affluency & environmental degradation Climate change (death rates rise?) Reasons for Growth Moved into nearly all climates Early & modern agriculture Better nutrition Increased food supply & distribution Control of infectious diseases Sanitation systems Antibiotics Vaccines Uneven Distribution Developing countries increasing 15 times faster than developed countries By 2050, 97% of growth will be in developing countries China & India have 36% world s population Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Average # of children born to a woman during reproductive yrs Replacement-level Fertility Rate Average # of children a couple must have to replace themselves 2.1 = developed countries 2.5 = developing (2.4-3.3) U.S. Growing Rapidly TFR peaked at 3.7 (1957) during baby boom TFR slowed (& population growth) since Population still growing (faster than China s) Births & Immigration Cultural Changes 1907 Leading cause of death Pneumonia, TB, diarrhea 90% of doctors had no college education 1 in 5 adults illiterate Avg wage = 22 cents per hour 9,000 cars; 144 miles of paved road Marijuana, heroin, morphine OTCs Census Bureau predicts 2050 438 mill. 2100 571 mill.
Rule of 70 Estimate doubling time of population by dividing growth rate into 70 Growth rate = 2% 70/2 = 35 Doubling time is 35 years TFR & Birth Rate Factors Children part of labor force (developing countries) Cost of raising & educating children Birth & TFR lower in developed b/c expensive to raise kids Private & public pension If you have pension; need less kids to take care of old you Urbanization Urban areas = better family planning Rural areas need farm workers Educational & employment opportunities for women Women working or going to school; not having kids Infant mortality rate Low death rate = fewer replacement kids Average age of woman at birth of 1 st child Marry later = fewer kids Availability of legal abortions More abortions = fewer kids Availability of birth control methods More condoms = fewer kids Religious beliefs, traditions, & culture Some favor large families Some against contraception Family Planning Helps couple choose when & how many kids to have Provides info on birth control & health care for women/babies Does it work o Bangladesh 157 mil. people live in Wisconsin-size area Matlab Project visits from local women offering counseling, education, free contraceptives o 55% drop developing s TFR o Thailand (1971-2008) Growth rate 3.2% to 0.5% TFR 6.4 to 1.6 o Iran (1989-2000) Growth rate 2.5%-1.4% Good ol USA o 1998 2001; US provides $46.5 million to UN Population Fund Family planning, HIV/AIDS & teen pregnancy prevention o 2002-08; US withheld b/c it supports or participates in management of a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization E.U. kicked in our share The Answer is Equal Sexes Women have fewer children o Educated o Job outside home o Human rights aren t suppressed o Children are better cared for, healthier, & better educated
Other Population Factors Migration Economic improvement Religious freedom Political freedom Wars Environmental refugees 25 mill in 2005 250 mill by 2050? U.S. Immigration Since 1820 U.S. has had 2 times as much as all others 40% of current growth o 1820-1960 European o 1960-present 53% Latin, 25% Asia, 14% Europe Future Immigration o 2007 11.3 mill illegal immigrants o Who wants Low-paying jobs Farm jobs o Baby boomers? Who takes their jobs? Who pays for them? Voting power? Global Age Structure 28% (1.9 bil) under 15 yrs 30% in developing 41% in Africa 17% in developed Population gonna keep rising Old Populations Size declines rapidly Japan o 2008 128 mill. o 2050 96 mill. Gov t strain high medicare & social security Labor shortages, less taxes Russia, Germany, Czech, Italy, Spain Death Rate Factors Life expectancy Avg # of yrs an infant can expect to live Infant mortality rate # of babies that die before their first birthday U.S. Problems? 78; 42 nd life expectancy o 45 mill w/o healthcare o Adult obesity 6.6; 41 st infant mortality o Inadequate healthcare for poor women & babies o Drug addiction in pregnant moms o High birth rate among teens
AIDS Worldwide Many young adults die (loss of most productive workers) Sharp drop in life expectancy International community o Reduce spread of HIV thru education & health care o Financial assistance & volunteers HIV/AIDS in Africa o Infects 1 in 5 people in southern African nations o Kills babies born to infected mothers o Orphaned 14 million children o Cut 19 years off life expectancies in parts of southern Africa o 1999, Zambia lost 600 teachers to AIDS (300 new grads to replace them) o Rwanda, 1 in 3 college educated residents of capital city infected o South Africa loses $7 billion per year to lose of labor o Income/food declining, medical expenses/ debt skyrocketing Route to Stable Population Invest in family planning Reduce poverty Elevate social & economic status of women India 1952 400 mil & Family planning begins 2015 1.28 bil & 1.55% growth/yr 2025 should pass China 2050 1.75 bil Problems on the Horizon 1 in 4 poor; 50% of kids malnourished 18% rural had sanitations Almost half labor force unemployed Less girls b/c sons favored Environmental Problems 18% world population; 2.3% land resources & 2% of forests Half of cropland degraded due to erosion 2/3 of water seriously polluted Major cities = Air pollution China s One-Child Policy Beginning 1949; Population ~540 mil. Mao = food production/ distribution & public health improve 1970; 790 mil. & 5.8 TFR Depleted water, eroded soil, leveled forests, & polluted air Good Effort Education/outreach efforts to encourage later marriage w/ less kids Increased accessibility of contraceptives & abortion BR dropped (not fast enough) One Child Policy Restricts married, urban couples to having only one child Exemptions Twins, rural couples, ethnic minorities, & parents without any siblings themselves One Child Family Better access to schools, medical care, housing, government jobs Longer maternity leave for mother Two+ Child Family Social scorn/ridicule, employment discrimination, monetary fines In some cases, fines exceeded half of family s annual income
Or Not? Baby boom to one child policy 100 mil 65+ yr olds in 2005; 236 mil in 2030 China s Sex Ratios 2000; 120 boys/100 girls (some places 135/100) Normal = 106 boys/100 girls Reasons? Selective Abortion of females Abandonment Black Market Demographic Transition Model Pre-industrial High birth rate (BR) + high death rate (DR) = slow growth Transitional Improved food supply, sanitation, & medicine DR falls + BR same = rapid growth Industrial Women s education up, urbanization, less subsistent farms, contraception DR low + BR falls = slowing growth Postindustrial DR low + BR low = little to no growth DR can rise do to lifestyle Demographic Trap Population grows faster than economy Nation gets stuck in stage 1 or 2 Rising death rate AIDS in Africa Lack of scientists & engineers (94% work in industrialized world) Worker shortage Not enough money; too much debt