Utah's Demographic Transformation: Implications for Education and Workforce 27 Council of Councils Southern Utah University Cedar City, Utah October 11, 27 Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Senior Research Economist Bureau of Economic & Business Research University of Utah Utah s Demographic Transformation Classic (stereotypic) Utah demographics: White, large families, young Culturally and linguistically homogeneous Two trends transforming Utah: Record numbers of immigrants coming to Utah Post WWII Baby Boom retirees aging and moving to Utah Utah is becoming: Much more culturally, ethnically, and linguistically diverse Older The changes: On-going National / International in source Permanent Utah is forever changed 1
Overview Utah context Intermountain growth region High fertility, large household sizes Birth cycles: Utah vs. U.S. Aging of the population Implications for Utah s population and labor force Migration patterns Economic Cycles Implications for the cultural, ethnic, and linguistic diversity Characteristics of migrants Utah of yesterday is not the Utah of tomorrow U.S. Population by Region: 19-23 16 14 12 About 2/3 of the national growth from 19 to 2 occurred in the South and West. Nearly 9% of the national growth from 2 to 23 is projected to occur in the South and West. Millions of Persons 1 8 6 4 South West Midwest Northeast 2 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2; 25. 2
Population in the Intermountain West: 19-23 Millions of Persons 12 1 8 6 4 2 Arizona and Colorado generated over half (53%) of of growth of the Mountain Division in the 2 th century. Between 2 and 23, the populations of Arizona and Nevada are projected to double. Arizona Colorado Nevada Utah New Mexico Idaho Montana Wyoming 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2; 25. Utah Age Structure: 187 3
Utah Age Structure: 25 Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah: School Age, 6 and Over, and 65 and Older 1,2, 1,, Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old 6 years and older 65 years and older 85+ 1,191,65 1,97,73 958,183 8, 6, 4, 458,12 2, 223,541 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Sources: Utah Governor s Office of Planning and Budget; 25 Baseline Projections. BEBR, U of U 4
Utah: Components of Population Change 45, Utah Boom Peak: 1962 Utah Echo Peak: 198-2 35, 25, 15, 5, -5, -15, -25, Net In-Migration Natural Increase 195 196 197 198 199 2 Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, revised 12/26. Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 194-26 U.S. Boom Peak: 1957 U.S. Echo Peak: 199 Utah Births (thousands) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Utah US Utah Boom Peak: 1962 Utah Echo Peak: 198-2 Utah Echo Echo Peak: 212?? 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 US Births (millions) Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics. 5
Utah & U.S. Annual Births:18-24 Years Prior 4 U.S. Peak: 198 U.S. Trough: 1996 U.S. Peak: 213 3 35 3 25 Utah Births (thousands) 25 2 15 1 5 Utah US Utah Peak: 1981 Utah Peak: 22 2 15 1 5 US Births (millions) 1964 1974 1984 1994 24 214 224 Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics. Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected 5, 4, 18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility 18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years prior Bureau of Census 25 GOPB 25 3, 2, Age wave hits college age 216-225 1, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, 22. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. 6
Utah s Current Labor Shortage: Causes Flat 18 to 24 year old population for a decade Beginning of the post WWII Baby Boom retirement Creating 5 to 6 thousand jobs per year High demand for labor Low unemployment rate In-migration to the state Much is international in origin Much ethnic, linguistic, and cultural diversity Characteristics of in-migrants changes the characteristics of Utah s population and labor force Utah Fall School Enrollment & Births 5-17 Years Prior 6, 55, Total Births 5-17 Yrs Ago Fall School Enrollment 211: Cumulative Births from 1993 through 26 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; Utah Population Estimates Committee. Note: Births are fiscal year (July 1) births and enrollment is fall enrollment, revised 12/26. 7
Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected 9, 8, 7, High Economic Growth and Fertility 22 Baseline Low Economic Growth and Fertility 25 GOPB Baseline 6, 5, 4, 3, 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Sources: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, 22; GOPB 25 Baseline Projections. Annual Increments in Utah Fall Enrollment: White and Minority Populations 15, 12, 9, Minority White 7,131 6, 5,995 3, (3,) 4,863 5,429 5,568 2,897 3,438 96 4,17 593 3,781 7,199 (6,) 1999-2 2-1 21-2 22-3 24-5 25-6 Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics, 12/26. 8
Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2-26 Minority (All Others) 7% Enrollment Growth from 2 to 26: Total: 5,46 Minority: 35,424 White Non- Hispanic 3% Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics. Immigration to Utah: 199s - Present Immigrants have moved beyond the traditional gateway states (NY, NJ, IL, FL, TX, CA) to new areas of the U.S. Utah has emerged as a gateway for immigrants. Much of the population growth of Utah especially since the mid 199s has come from immigration. Coming from all regions very diverse Mostly from Latin America, especially Mexico This ongoing cultural and demographic transformation marks a new era of diversity for Utah. 9
U.S. Foreign Born Population: 185 25 3% 4 Foreign Born Share of Total Population 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Undocumented in 25 = 11.1 million or 31.1% of the foreign born population and 3.8% of the total population 14.7% 14.2 Million 35.7 Million 35 3 25 2 12.4% 15 1 5 Number of Foreign Born (Millions) % 185 186 187 188 189 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 25 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 25 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations. Utah Foreign Born Population: 185 25 Foreign Born Share of Total Population 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% 18% 32% 35% 31% 26% 19% 18% Undocumented in 25 = 75, to 1, or 39% to 52% of the foreign born population and 3% to 4% of total Utah population 13% 1% 6% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 192,916 7% 8% 2 15 1 5 Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) % 185 186 187 188 189 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 25 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 25 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations. 1
Source Regions of Utah s Foreign Born Population Foreign Born Population by Region 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, EUROPE ASIA AFRICA OCEANIA LATIN AMERICA NORTH AMERICA 185 186 187 188 189 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 25 Source: Bureau of the Census (decennial censuses, 25 ACS), Jensen (1994), BEBR calculations. Source Regions of Utah s Foreign Born Population (2) North America 5% Africa 2% Oceania 4% Mexico 41% Europe 16% Latin American 54% Asia 18% Caribbean 1% South America 8% Central America Excluding Mexico 5% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, Summary File 3. 11
Nativity by Minority Status: Utah - 2 Foreign Born Balance 24% Native Born Minority 1% Minority 76% Balance 9% Source: Bureau of the Census, 5% PUMS, Census 2. Minority Share of the Population: Utah and US 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 36% 33% 31% Utah US 24% 2% 2% 16% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 17% 17% 15% 11% 1% 1% 1% 11% 11% 8% 9% 6% % % 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 185 186 187 188 189 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 25 21 Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (22), Perlich (22) Note: Prior to 197, minority is non-white. For 197 and beyond, minority is non-white (may be Hispanic or non- Hispanic) plus Hispanic (may be of any race). 12
Utah s Minority Population: 26 17.4 % of population Black or African American Alone (Not Hispanic) 4.5% Am. Indian & Alaska Native Alone (Not Hispanic) 6.5% Asian Alone (Not Hispanic) 1.7% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone (Not Hispanic) 4.% Hispanic 64.6% Other non- White (1) 9.6% Note: Other non-white includes two or more races and Some Other Race, both not Hispanic (Source: BEBR Analysis of Bureau of Census and Utah Population Estimates data. Region-to-Region Migration: 1995-2 (Thousands) 13
Net Domestic Migration and Movers from Abroad: Population Over 5 Years Old - 1995 to 2 4,5, 3,5, Internal Net Movers from Abroad Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 2,5, 1,5, 5, -5, -1,5, Northeast Midwest South West West Minus CA Internal Net -1,27,658-541,189 1,799,799 12,48 767,584 Movers from Abroad 1,567,331 1,57,87 2,615,279 2,255,366 847,78 Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 296,673 516,681 4,415,78 2,267,414 1,615,292 Source: Berker and Faber 23. 14
Minority Contribution to Utah Population Growth 199-2 2-25 Minority (All Others) 34.7% Minority (All Others) 35.4% White Non- Hispanic 65.3% White Non- Hispanic 64.6% U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2 Census, SF1; ACS. 15
Foreign Born Contribution to Population Growth: Utah and the US, 199-2 Foreign Born 2% Utah Foreign Born 35% US Native Born 8% Native Born 65% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2 Census, Summary File 3; 199 Census, STF3. 16
Utah Age & Sex Distributions x Nativity (2) Foreign Born Native Born 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 15, 5, 5, 15, Male Female Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, 5% PUMS. 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 12, 6, 6, 12, Male Female Utah Age & Sex Distributions x Ethnicity (2) Hispanic Not Hispanic 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 15, 5, 5, 15, Male Female Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, 5% PUMS. 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 <5 12, 6, 6, 12, Male Female 17
Utah Hispanic Age & Sex Distributions x Nativity (2) Foreign Born Native Born 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 '1-14 '5-9 <5 1, 5, 5, 1, Male Female Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, 5% PUMS. 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 '1-14 '5-9 <5 15, 5, 5, 15, Male Female Top Occupations of Utah s Foreign Born Assemblers & Fabricators Cooks Maids,Housekeeping Construction Laborers Janitors Production Workers Cashiers Grounds Maintenance Workers Laborers / Material Movers, Retail Salespersons Customer Service Rep. Waiters and Waitresses Truck Drivers Carpenters Postsecondary Teachers Misc. Agricultural Workers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, 5% PUMS. 18
Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah s Foreign Born Medical Scientists Packaging Machine Operators Plasterers & Stucco Masons Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Media Workers Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Dishwashers Baggage Porters Maids and Housekeepers Fence Erectors Sewing Machine Operators Misc.Assemblers Woodworking Mach. Ops. Astronomers & Physicists Drywall Installers Dancers & Choreographers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2, 5% PUMS. Utah Share of 18-24 Year Olds Attending College by Sex and Nativity (2) 45% 4% 35% 36.9% 35.2% 38.6% 38.2% 36.9% 39.4% Total Male Female 3% 25% 2% 23.3% 2.% 27.6% 15% 1% Total Native Born Foreign Born Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2, 5% PUMS 19
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2) College Graduate or Greater High School or Greater 29.7% 3.5% 21.7% 27.8% 18.2% 54.5% 62.1% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen 75.1% 87.2% 89.8% Less than High School 12.8% 1.2% 24.9% 37.9% 45.5% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2, 5% PUMS Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2) College Graduate or Greater High School or Greater Less than High School 21.9% 22.% 21.1% 21.% 21.2% 11.9% 9.9% 32.8% 22.1% 39.7% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen 88.1% 9.1% 67.2% 77.9% 6.3% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2, 5% PUMS 2
Utah is Forever Changed Utah is in the midst of a cultural, economic, and demographic transformation Labor market conditions (labor demand exceeds labor supply) continue to bring people to Utah Immigrants are a major part of the story Educational attainment and occupational distributions among immigrants are concentrated in the high and low ends. Implications for: Public sector programs / services Economic growth / development Utah has begun a new era of diversity, with new challenges and opportunities. 21