Regional Data Snapshot Population, Economy & Education Features SET Civic Forum Uwharrie Region, NC
Table of Contents 01 Overview 03 Human Capital 02 Demography 04 Labor Force
01 overview Uwharrie Region, NC What is a regional snapshot?
Overview Uwharrie Region The Uwharrie Region is comprised of 3 North Carolina counties. Interstate I-73 passes through Montgomery County and connects to Greensboro in the north. State Route 24 connects Stanly County to Charlotte to the west. Major railroads in the region include Aberdeen, Carolina and Western Railway (ACWR) and CSX. Anson Montgomery Stanly section 01 4
Overview What is a regional snapshot? What is the snapshot? This snapshot is a demographic and economic assessment of the Uwharrie Region in North Carolina. Using county-level data to form the region, PCRD analyzed a number of indicators to gauge the overall economic performance of the Uwharrie Region in comparison to the rest of the state. What is its purpose? The snapshot is intended to inform the region s leaders, organizations and residents of the key attributes of the region s population and economy. In particular, it takes stock of the region s important assets and challenges. With such data in hand, regional leaders and organizations are in a better position to invest in the mix of strategies that will spur the growth of the economy and provide a higher quality of life for residents of the region. What are its focus areas? PCRD secured and analyzed recent data from both public and private sources to generate the snapshot. In order to build a more comprehensive picture of the region, the report presents information under three key categories. Demography Human Capital Labor Force When appropriate or relevant, the report compares information on the region with data on the remainder of the state. By so doing, the region is better able to determine how well it is performing relative to the state on a variety of important metrics. section 01 5
02 demography Population change Age structure Race/Ethnicity Income and poverty
Demography Population Change Total population projections Uwharrie Region Rest of NC 110,197 2000 7,939,116 4.7% 115,331 18.7% 9,420,152 2000-2010 -1.1% 114,021 5.4% 9,928,781 2010-2015 2.3% 116,658 5.4% 10,467,718 2015-2020 Questions: How does the region s population trend compare to that of the state? What may be some of the elements driving the trends in the region? In the state? What strengths or challenges might these trends present? section 02 Source: 2000 & 2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Population Estimates, and 2020 Population from North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections, 7
Demography Components of Population Change 2000-2015 Total Change 1,247 Natural Increase 3,010 International Migration 2,606 Domestic Migration** -2,714 Questions: Which component contributes most to the population change? To what extent is net international migration or net domestic migration factors in fueling population change in the region? What are the implications of these trends for the region? * Note: 2000-2010 components of population change are estimated based on 2000 Census population while 2010-2015 components of population change are based on 2010 Census population. The total change estimated from components of population change might not match with the census numbers because of the residuals. ** Domestic migration is estimated by analyzing the year-by-year IRS U.S. migration database from 2000 to 2015 accounting for the internal migration within the region. Please note that within a region in-and-out migration cancels each other. section 02 Source: 2010 & 2015 Population Estimates, IRS U.S. Migration Database. 8
Demography Population Age Structure, 2000 A visual presentation of the age distribution of the population (in percent) 80+ 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 10-19 00-09 2.9 3.7 5.6 6.7 7.5 8.2 11.4 12.0 14.9 14.5 15.8 14.7 14.7 12.7 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.6 Rest of NC Uwharrie 0 4 8 12 16 Percent of Population Notice the age distribution of the population in 2000 and compare it to information contained in the next slide. section 02 Source: 2000 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau 9
Demography Population Age Structure, 2015 A visual presentation of the age distribution of the population (in percent) 80+ 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 10-19 00-09 3.5 4.2 6.3 7.6 11.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.3 13.0 12.7 11.4 13.8 13.0 13.1 12.4 12.4 11.4 Rest of NC Uwharrie 0 4 8 12 16 Percent of Population Questions: Is the region experiencing an aging of its population? How does this compare to the rest of the state? Is there a sizable number of people of prime working age (20-49 years) in the region? Is the youth population (under 20 years old) growing or declining? What are the implications of the region s age structure on its economic development efforts? section 02 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau 10
Demography Race Ethnicity 2000 Hispanics - 2000 Asian 1.5% Black 22.5% Other 4.7% White 72.8% 2015 American Indian & Alaska Native 0.3% Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific islander 0.03% Some Other Races & Two or More Races 2.8% Hispanics - 2015 3.9 % Asian 1.7% Black 21.7% Other 3.9% White 74.4% American Indian & Alaska Native 0.6% Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific islander 0.18% 6.7 % Two or More Races 1.4% section 02 Race Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census and 2015 Annual Population Estimates 11
Demography Income and Poverty 2005 2010 2015 Questions: Is the poverty rate for individuals in the region getting better or worse? Total Population in Poverty Minors (Age 0-17) in Poverty Real Median Household Income* ($ 2015) 18.2% 19.3% 19.5% 24.8% 27.6% 28.8% $42,496 $41,840 $41,428 Is poverty for minors in the region lower or higher than the overall poverty rate for all individuals? Why? Has real median income (adjusted for inflation) improved or worsened over the 2005 to 2015 time period? What may be reasons for these changes? section 02 * Note: Regional Median Household income is the population-weighted average of median household income values across Uwharrie counties. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 12
03 human capital Educational attainment Patents
Human capital Educational Attainment, 2015 10% Uwharrie region 10% Rest of North Carolina 4% 5% 6% 10% 14% 18% 9% 27% Questions: What proportion of the adult population in the region has a high school education only? How many are college graduates (associate s, bachelors degree or higher)? 21% 35% No high school Some high school High school diploma Some college 9% 22% Associate s degree Bachelor s degree Graduate degree How does the educational profile of the region compare to that of the rest of the state? What are the implications of the educational profile of the region in terms of the region s economic opportunities or workforce challenges? section 03 Source: 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 14
Human capital Patents Patents per 10,000 Jobs 2001-2015 From 2001 to 2015, Uwharrie Region counties were issued patents at a rate of 0.75 per 10,000 jobs, while the remaining North Carolina counties garnered 4.43 patents per 10,000 jobs. Rest of North Carolina 4.43 Uwharrie 0.75 Patenting trends are an important indicator of innovation in a region. Commercializing this innovation can lead to long-term growth for regional economies. Questions: Rest of North Carolina 2.52 Uwharrie 0.33 Patents per 10,000 residents 2001-2015 From 2001 to 2015, 0.33 patents per 10,000 residents were issued in Uwharrie Region counties. The rest of North Carolina amassed 2.52 patents per 10,000 residents. How does the region s patent rate compare to that of the rest of the state? How have rates changed over time? What might these data suggest for the future of the region? section 03 Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Census, BEA *Note: Patent origin is determined by the residence of the first-named inventor. Since a number of workers commute into the region, the number of patents produced in Uwharrie Region could be high. However, among residents of the region, patent production is relatively low. 15
04 labor force Unemployment rates Earnings per worker Source of labor for the region
Labor force Unemployment Rates 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 6.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6% 7.3% 12.9% 6.1% 5.8% 9.3% 13.2% Rest of NC 10.8% 9.6% US Total Uwharrie Region 7.4% 8.5% 6.3% 5.3% 5.0% 5.1% 4.9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Questions: How does the region s unemployment rate compare to the rest of the state and nation? How well has the region s unemployment rate improved since the 2007-2009 Great Recession? How does that compare to the state and national trends? What might this suggest for the region s economic future? section 04 Source: LAUS, BLS 17
Labor force Earnings per Worker in 2015 Questions: How does the region s average earnings compare to that of the rest of the state? What might be some driving factors for the differences? Do these represent potential strengths or challenges for the region? $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $35,401 $49,242 Uwharrie Region Rest of State $0 Average earnings NOTE: Earnings include wages, salaries, supplements and earnings from partnerships and proprietorships section 04 Source: EMSI, Class of Worker 2016.4 (QCEW, non-qcew, self-employed and extended proprietors) 18
Labor force Journey to Work 16,071 In-Commuters 2014 Count Proportion Employed in Uwharrie Region 35,111 100.0% Both employed and living in the region 19,040 54.2% Employed in the region but living outside 16,071 45.8% Living in Uwharrie Region 48,546 100.0% 19,040 Same Work/ Home Both living and employed in the region Living in the region but employed outside 19,040 39.2% 29,506 60.8% 29,506 Out-Commuters Questions: How many people employed in the region actually reside outside the region? How many who live in the region commute to jobs outside the region? What might be done to reduce the flow of labor to jobs located outside the region? section 04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OTM, LEHD, PCRD 19
Report Contributors This report was prepared by the Purdue Center for Regional Development, in partnership with the Southern Rural Development Center and USDA Rural Development, in support of the Stronger Economies Together program. Report Authors Bo Beaulieu, PhD Indraneel Kumar, PhD Andrey Zhalnin, PhD Data Analysis Ayoung Kim Andrey Zhalnin, PhD Indraneel Kumar, PhD Report Design Tyler Wright This report was supported, in part, by grant from the USDA Rural Development through the auspices of the Southern Rural Development Center. It was produced in support of the Stronger Economies Together (SET) program. 20
For more information, please contact: The Purdue Center for Regional Development (PCRD) seeks to pioneer new ideas and strategies that contribute to regional collaboration, innovation and prosperity. Dr. Bo Beaulieu, PCRD Director: ljb@purdue.edu Or 765-494-7273 May 2017