More Democrats See Health Reform Passing HEALTH CARE DEBATE DOMINATES INTEREST AND COVERAGE

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1 NEWS Release L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C Tel (202) Fax (202) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Andrew Kohut, Director Michael Remez, Senior Writer More Democrats See Health Reform Passing HEALTH CARE DEBATE DOMINATES INTEREST AND COVERAGE As President Obama and Democratic leaders mounted what was characterized as the final push to pass health care reform legislation last week, the public followed the health care debate more than any other major story (33% say they followed this story most ). The debate also topped media coverage Will Health Care Reform Pass? No 43 Yes The percentage of Americans who say they think Congress will pass health care legislation this year edged up to 43%, but about half (49%) still say lawmakers will not pass a bill in Oct 12 Q4 Oct 26 Nov 09 News Coverage vs. News Interest Health care reform Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan 18 Feb 01 Feb Mar 01 Mar 15 Among Democrats, 61% now say they think a health care reform bill will pass this year, up from 49% one week earlier. Only 27% of Republicans and 38% of independents say they think a bill will pass, unchanged from the previous week, according to the latest News Interest Index Economy Toyota problems Swine flu Chile earthquake Iraq Massa resignation Interest: percent who named story as most followed Coverage: percent of news coverage devoted to story

2 survey, conducted March among 1,019 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. Most Unaware of Votes Needed for Health Care Bill Most Americans say they have heard at least a little about the tactics contemplated by congressional Democrats and Republicans for the showdown over the health care legislation. Still, only a third (33%) correctly answer that the next major step in the Senate is likely to require 51 votes, not 60 the number needed to break a Republican filibuster. Close to half (46%) say they have not heard about this procedural issue. Among those who say they are following the health care debate very, about half (51%) correctly say that a simple majority 51 votes is expected to be needed for a Senate vote on changes to the bill first passed by the chamber just before Christmas. Just 21% of those following less say this. How Many Senate Votes Now Needed For Passage of Health Care Reform? Haven t votes votes heard DK % % % % Total =100 Men =100 Women = = = =100 Republicans =100 Democrats =100 Independents =100 College grad =100 Some college =100 HS or less =100 Following health care: =100 Less =100 Q6: Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. There is little difference among partisans in the number saying that 51 votes are likely to be required in the Senate. Men are more likely than women to say this (40% vs. 26%), college graduates are more likely than those with a high school diploma or less schooling (41% vs. 21%) and those 65 and older are more likely to say this than those 39 or younger (48% vs. 23%). Meanwhile, four-in-ten say they have heard a lot about the legislative approach Democrats might use to try to pass the health care bill; 43% say they have heard a little about this and 16% say they have heard nothing at all. About a third (34%) say they have heard a lot about the legislative approach Republicans might use to block the bill. Another 47% say they have heard a little about this and 19% say they have heard nothing at all. Half of Republicans say they heard a lot about expected Democratic strategy, compared with 36% of Democrats and 39% of independents. Fewer Republicans (33%) say they heard a lot about their own party s strategy, compared with 40% of Democrats. About three-in-ten independents (31%) say they heard a lot about this. 2

3 Not surprisingly, those following the debate very are much more likely than those following less to have heard about the potential strategies. More than six-in-ten of those following very (62%) say they have heard a lot about the approach the Democrats might use, compared with 26% of those following less. More than half (52%) of those Hearing About Partisan Tactics on Health Care Bill? Democratic approach Republican approach to try to pass bill to block bill A A Nothing A A Nothing lot little at all DK lot little at all DK % % % % % % % % Total = *=100 Republicans *= *=100 Democrats = =100 Independents = =100 Following health care: = =100 Less = *=100 Q.5a & 5b. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. following very say they heard a lot about the approach Republicans might use to block the bill, compared with 23% of those following less. Dems More Optimistic About Passage Shortly after Republican Scott Brown Most Democrats Now Believe Health Care Reform Will Pass won the Jan. 19 special election in Massachusetts to replace Ted Kennedy in the U.S. Senate, the Republican percentage of Americans Democrat saying a health care bill Independent would pass this year Follow health care reform debate: dropped sharply from 57% to 27%. It has been inching up since mid-february, as Less Q Democratic lawmakers have worked to find a way to enact Obama s top legislative priority. Feb Feb 26-Mar 1 March 5-8 March Will Won t Will Won t Will Won t Will Won t pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass % % % % % % Total Currently 43% say the bill will pass, not significantly larger than the 39% one week earlier, but 16 points greater than the 27% recorded Feb The increase over the past week has come entirely among Democrats. Currently, 61% of Democrats say they think a health care reform bill will pass this year, up from 49% a week earlier. The numbers of Republicans and independents who say this was unchanged. 3

4 There also was no change in the perceptions of those following the debate very. Among those following less, 41% now think a bill will pass, up from 34% the previous week. Health Care and Economy Remain Top Stories About four-in-ten say they followed news about health care reform (40%) or the economy (41%) very last week. A third say they followed news about the health care debate more than any other story, while 18% say they followed news about the economy most. Those two stories also received the most coverage, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center s Project for Excellence in Journalism. Reporting about health care accounted for 19% of the newshole, while stories about the economy made up 12%. Close to a quarter (23%) very followed news about problems with sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles; 12% say this was the story they followed most. Toyota s troubles accounted for 5% of the newshole. About two-in-ten (18%) say they followed news about the earthquake aftershocks in Chile very ; 12% say this was the story they followed most. News about the aftershocks accounted for 1% of the newshole. Just over two-in-ten (22%) say they followed events in Iraq very, while 7% say they followed this news more than any other major story. News about Iraq and the most recent elections there accounted for 3% of the newshole. Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) say they very followed news about the resignation of New York Congressman Eric Massa amid allegations of improper conduct with staff members. This story accounted for 5% of the newshole, but just 1% say this was the story they followed most last week. About four-in-ten (39%) say the Massa story received too much attention, though 32% say it received the right amount. About three-in-ten (31%) say the Toyota story received too much attention, but a majority (53%) says this story received the right amount of coverage. Which Stories Got Too Much Coverage Too Right Too Don t much amount little know % % % % Massa resignation =100 Toyota problems =100 Health care reform =100 Iraq =100 Q3a-d. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Significant minorities thought the 4

5 media devoted too little attention last week to both Iraq (39%) and health care reform (36%). Still, pluralities (46% each) say the stories received the right amount of coverage. Measuring News Interest Percent following each story very. Which one story did you Follow most? Health care Economy Toyota Chile quake Iraq Massa These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected March 8-14, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected March from a nationally representative sample of 1,019 adults. 5

6 About the News Interest Index The News Interest Index is a weekly survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press aimed at gauging the public s interest in and reaction to major news events. This project has been undertaken in conjunction with the Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, an ongoing content analysis of the news. The News Coverage Index catalogues the news from top news organizations across five major sectors of the media: newspapers, network television, cable television, radio and the internet. Each week (from Monday through Sunday) PEJ compiles this data to identify the top stories for the week. The News Interest Index survey collects data from Friday through Monday to gauge public interest in the most covered stories of the week. Results for the weekly surveys are based on landline telephone interviews among a nationwide sample of approximately 1,000 adults, 18 years of age or older, conducted under the direction of ORC (Opinion Research Corporation). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls, and that results based on subgroups will have larger margins of error. For more information about the Project for Excellence in Journalism s News Coverage Index, go to About the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent opinion research group that studies attitudes toward the press, politics and public policy issues. We are sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts and are one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The Center's purpose is to serve as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion research. In this role it serves as an important information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars, and public interest organizations. All of our current survey results are made available free of charge. All of the Center s research and reports are collaborative products based on the input and analysis of the entire Center staff consisting of: Andrew Kohut, Director Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Michael Remez, Senior Writer Robert Suls, Shawn Neidorf, Leah Christian, Jocelyn Kiley and Alec Tyson, Research Associates Jacob Poushter, Research Assistant For more information about the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press weekly News Interest Index, go to Pew Research Center,

7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS March 12-15, 2010 NEWS INTEREST INDEX OMNIBUS SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE N=1,019 Q.1 As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very, fairly, not too, or not at all. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] [IF NECESSARY Did you follow [ITEM] very, fairly, not too or not at all? ] a. Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy March 12-15, * March 5-8, * February 26-March 1, * February 19-22, * February 12-15, * February 5-8, * January 29-February 1, * January 22-25, * January 15-18, * January 8-11, * December 18-21, December 11-14, * December 4-7, November 13-16, * October 30-November 2, * October 23-26, October 9-12, * October 2-5, September 25-28, * September 18-21, * September 11-14, * September 3-6, * August 28-31, August 21-24, August 14-17, * August 7-10, * July 31-August 3, * July 24-27, * July 17-20, July 10-13, * July 2-5, * June 19-22, * June 12-15, * June 5-8, * May 29-June 1, * May 21-24, * May 15-18, * May 8-11, * May 1-4, April 17-20, April 9-13, March 27-30, * March 20-23, * 7

8 Q.1 CONTINUED March 13-16, * February 27-March 2, * February 13-16, * January 30-February 2, * January 23-26, January 16-19, * January 2-4, * December 12-15, * December 5-8, * November 21-24, * November 14-17, * November 7-10, * October 31-November 3, * October 24-27, October 17-20, * October 10-13, * October 3-6, * September 26-29, * September 19-22, * September 5-8, * August 29-31, August 15-18, * August 8-11, * August 1-4, July 25-28, * July 18-21, * July 11-14, June 27-30, June 13-16, * May 9-12, * May 2-5, April 18-21, April 4-7, * March 28-31, * March 20-24, * February 29-March 3, February 15-18, February 1-4, January 18-21, * January 11-14, November 2-5, October 19-22, * August 10-13, * Mid-November, December, Early November, * Mid-May, January, * Mid-October, Early September, Mid-January, * December, November,

9 Q.1 CONTINUED October, September, March, February, * January, December, February, January, December, Mid-November, June, May, April, February, January, June, * March, * February, December, * October, June, * May, January, Early January, * December, October, * September, Early September, * August, * May, February, * January, * September, May, March, * February, * January, * October, b. Reports about problems with sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles March 12-15, * February 26-March 1, 2010: Congressional hearings about problems with Toyota vehicles * February 12-15, 2010: Concerns about problems with sudden acceleration and braking in Toyotas February 5-8, * January 29-February 1, 2010: Toyota s recall and temporary halt of sales of many cars and trucks because of problems with sudden acceleration

10 Q.1 CONTINUED TREND FOR COMPARISON: Early October, 2000: The recall of defective Firestone tires * c. The current situation and events in Iraq March 12-15, * March 5-8, * January 29-February 1, * January 15-18, * October 16-19, * September 11-14, * August 21-24, August 14-17, * TREND FOR COMPARISON 1 : July 2-5, April 24-27, * March 20-23, * February 27-March 2, December 12-15, * November 21-24, November 14-17, * October 31-November 3, October 24-27, * October 10-13, * October 3-6, * September 5-8, * August 29-31, August 22-25, August 1-4, * July 25-28, * July 18-21, * July 11-14, July 3-7, * June 20-23, * May 9-12, May 2-5, April 25-28, April 18-21, April 11-14, April 4-7, * March 28-31, March 20-24, * March 14-17, * March 7-10, * February 29-March 3, * 1 July 2-5, 2009 asked about: U.S. troops withdrawing from Iraqi cities. February 27-March 2, 2009 asked about Barack Obama s plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq by August From March 20-23, 2009 to April 24-27, 2009 and from March 30- April 2, 2007 through December 12-15, 2008 the story was listed as The current situation and events in Iraq. From May, 2003 to March 23-26, 2007, the story was listed as News about the current situation in Iraq. From March 20-24, 2003 to April 11-16, 2003, the story was listed as News about the war in Iraq. From Early October, 2002, to March 13-16, 2003, the story was listed as Debate over the possibility that the U.S. will take military action in Iraq. In Early September, 2002, the story was listed as Debate over the possibility that the U.S. will invade Iraq. 10

11 Q.1 CONTINUED February 8-11, * February 1-4, * January 25-28, * January 18-21, January 11-14, * January 4-7, * December 14-17, * December 7-10, * November 23-26, November 16-19, November 9-12, November 2-5, October 26-29, October 19-22, * October 12-15, October 5-8, * September 28 October 1, * September 21-24, * September 14-17, September 7-10, * August 30 September 2, August 24-27, * August 17-20, * August 10-13, * August 3-6, * July 27-30, July 20-23, July 13-16, July 6-9, * June 29-July 2, June 22-25, June 15-18, * June 8-11, June 1-4, May 24-27, May 18-21, May 11-14, May 4-7, * April 27-30, April 20-23, * April 12-16, * April 5-9, March 30-April 2, * March 23-March 26, March 16-19, * March 9-12, * March 2-5, February 23-26, * February 16-19, February 9-12, * February 2-5, * January 26-29, * January 19-22,

12 Q.1 CONTINUED January 12-15, January, January 5-8, December, * November 30-December 3, * Mid-November, * September, August, June, May, April, March, February, January, December, Early November, * Early October, * Early September, July, Mid-May, * Mid-March, February, * January, * December, Mid-October, Early September, August, July, * June, April, * Mid-March, Early February, Mid-January, * December, November, September, Mid-August, Early July, June, * May, * April 11-16, April 2-7, March 20-24, March 13-16, February, January, December, Late October, Early October, Early September,

13 Q.1 CONTINUED d. Debate over health care reform March 12-15, * March 5-8, * February 26-March 1, * February 19-22, * January 29-February 1, * January 22-25, * January 15-18, * January 8-11, * December 18-21, * December 11-14, * December 4-7, November 20-23, * November 13-16, November 6-9, October 30-November 2, * October 23-26, October 16-19, * October 9-12, October 2-5, * September 25-28, September 18-21, * September 11-14, * September 3-6, August 28-31, August 21-24, August 14-17, TREND FOR COMPARISON: 2 August 7-10, 2009: Debate in Washington over health care reform July 31-August 3, July 24-27, * July 17-20, July 10-13, * June 26-29, June 19-22, * June 12-15, * May 15-18, * March 6-9, 2009: Obama proposing a $630 billion fund for overhauling health care * September, 1994: The Clinton administration s health care reform proposals * June, * May, January, * 2 June 12-15, 2009 through August 7-10, 2009 asked about: Debate in Washington over health care reform. May 15-18, 2009 asked about: Debate over Barack Obama s health care plans. March 6-9, 2009 asked about: Barack Obama proposing a $630 billion fund for overhauling the U.S. health care system. September, 1993 through September, 1994 asked about: The Clinton Administration s health care reform proposals. May, 1993 through August, 1993 asked about: Reports about the White House task force on health care reform headed by Hillary Clinton. 13

14 Q.1 CONTINUED Early January, * December, October, September, * August, 1993: Reports about the White House task force on health care reform headed by Hillary Clinton June, * May, e. The resignation of New York Congressman Eric Massa amid allegations of improper conduct with staff members March 12-15, * TREND FOR COMPARISON: June 26-29, 2009: South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford admitting he had an affair August 15-18, 2008: John Edwards admission that he had an affair March 14-17, 2008: The governor of New York, Eliot Spitzer, resigning because of his involvement with a prostitution ring * September 7-10, 2007: Reports about Idaho Senator Larry Craig s political future following his arrest for disorderly conduct in a men s restroom August 30-September 2, 2007: Idaho Senator Larry Craig s arrest for disorderly conduct in a men s restroom in the Minneapolis airport October 17-22, 2006: The resignation of Congressman Mark Foley, who sent inappropriate messages to young people September 5-8, 1996: The resignation of (Bill) Clinton advisor Dick Morris over charges of sexual misconduct * October 5-8, 1989: The scandal involving Congressman Barney Frank and a male prostitute September 1-13, 1987: The end of Gary Hart s candidacy and the Donna Rice allegations * f. Major aftershocks in Chile following an earthquake in late February March 12-15, * March 5-8, 2010: A major earthquake in Chile * TREND FOR COMPARISON: February 19-22, 2010: Haiti releasing most of the Americans who were accused of attempted kidnapping * February 12-15, 2010: The aftermath of a major earthquake and relief efforts in Haiti * February 5-8, * January 29-February 1, * 14

15 Q.1 CONTINUED January 22-25, * January 15-18, 2010: A major earthquake in Haiti * August 14-17, 2009: A typhoon that caused flooding and mudslides in Taiwan April 9-13, 2009: A major earthquake in Italy * May 16-19, 2008: The earthquake in China * May 9-12, 2008: Reports about the cyclone that hit Burma * November 2-5, 2007: The impact of Hurricane Noel on the Bahamas and Cuba September 7-10, 2007: The impact of Hurricanes Felix and Henriette on Mexico and Central America August 24-27, 2007: The destruction caused by Hurricane Dean in Mexico and the Caribbean October, 2005: The earthquake in Pakistan * January 2005: The earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean * January 2004: The earthquake in Iran * February 2001: The earthquake in India March 2000: Flood rescue efforts in Mozambique * September 1999: The earthquake in Turkey November 1998: Hurricane Mitch and the rain and mudslides in Central America February 1995: The earthquake in Japan * May 1991: The cyclone that devastated Bangladesh July 1990: The earthquake in Iran * Q.2 Which ONE of the stories I just mentioned have you followed most, or is there another story you ve been following MORE? [DO NOT READ LIST. ACCEPT ONLY ONE RESPONSE.] March Debate over health care reform 18 Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy 12 Reports about problems with sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles 12 Major aftershocks in Chile following an earthquake in late February 7 The current situation and events in Iraq The resignation of New York Congressman Eric Massa amid allegations of improper 1 conduct with staff members 6 Some other story (VOL.) 9 Don t know/ (VOL.) 15

16 Q.3 Do you think news organizations are giving too much coverage, too little coverage, or the right amount of coverage to each of the following? [RANDOMIZE ITEMS] Right Too much Too little amount of coverage coverage coverage a. Reports about problems with sudden acceleration in Toyota vehicles March 12-15, b. The current situation and events in Iraq March 12-15, October 16-19, March 20-23, February 6-9, 2009: Recent elections in Iraq June 20-23, April 25-28, January 25-28, December 14-17, November 16-19, November 2-5, July 20-23, June 1-4, c. Debate over health care reform March 12-15, January 22-25, October 16-19, October 2-5, July 17-20, 2009: Debate in Washington over health care reform d. The resignation of New York Congressman Eric Massa amid allegations of improper conduct with staff members March 12-15, Q.4 Thinking now about the issue of health care, from what you ve seen and heard, do you think a health care reform bill will pass this year or not? Yes, will No, will not March 12-15, March 5-8, February 26-March 1, February 19-22, January 29-February 1, January 22-25, January 15-18, January 8-11, December 18-21, For November 2-5, 2007 this item was not part of a list, it was a stand alone question and asked about: The war in Iraq. 4 For December 18-21, 2009 and earlier, the question asked about the chance of a health care reform bill passing over the next year or not. 16

17 Q.4 CONTINUED Yes, will No, will not December 11-14, December 4-7, November 20-23, November 13-16, November 6-9, October 30-November 2, October 23-26, October 16-19, October 9-12, Thinking about what happens next with the health care reform bills in Congress Q.5 How much if anything, have you heard about each of the following? Have you heard a lot, a little or nothing at all? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] (VOL.) A Nothing Don t A lot little at all know a. The legislative approach Democrats might use to try to pass the health care reform bill March 12-15, b. The legislative approach Republicans might use to block the health care reform bill March 12-15, * Q.6 From what you ve read and heard, do you happen to know if the next major vote in the Senate on health care reform would require [RANDOMIZE: 51 votes to pass/60 votes to pass], or haven t you heard about this issue? March votes to pass {Correct} votes to pass 46 Haven t heard about this 8 Don t know/ (VOL.) 17