2016 General Election Analysis. Arkansas results and federal overview

Transcription

1 2016 General Election Analysis Arkansas results and federal overview Analysis as of November 9, 2016

2 General Election Results 2016 Voter Turnout/Trends Source: Arkansas Secretary of State Registered Voters in Arkansas: 1,759,974 Ballots Cast in 2016: 1,116,620 Voter Turnout: 63.45% Highest County Turnout (Top 5): Van Buren, Little River, Pike, Prairie, Montgomery Lowest County Turnout (Bottom 5): Union, Ouachita, Newton, Crittenden, Phillips Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 2

3 Federal results (Winner in BOLD) U.S. President Unofficial pending certification of states Arkansas Percentage Hillary Clinton 33.8% Donald Trump 59.9% National Electoral College Hillary Clinton 228 Donald Trump 276 U.S. Senate: Sen. John Boozman (R) 59.1% Conner Eldridge (D) 36.0% Frank Gilbert (L) 4.6% U.S. House District 1: Rep. Rick Crawford (R) 76.3% Mark West (L) 23.6% U.S. House District 2: Rep. French Hill (R) 58.3% Dianne Curry (D) 36.8% Chris Hayes (L) 4.7% U.S. House District 3: Rep. Steve Womack (R) 75.3% Steve Issacson (L) 24.6% U.S. House District 4: Rep. Bruce Westerman (R) 75.0% Kerry Hicks (L) 22.9% Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 3

4 GENERAL ASSEMBLY results (Winner in BOLD; Results have not been certified by Secretary of State at time of printing) Arkansas Senate (Republicans add one to their majority) District 22 Sen. David Burnett (D) 39.6% Rep. Dave Wallace (R) 60.3% District 26 Sen. Eddie Cheatham (D) 78.6% Elvis Presley (L) 21.3% District 27 Sen. Bobby Pierce (D) 55.3% Trent Garner (R) 44.6% District 32 Will Bond (D) 75.0% Jacob Mosier (L) 24.9% District 34 Sen. Jane English (R) 58.0% Joe Woodson (D) 41.9% Arkansas House (Republicans pickup eight seats) District 3- Talley, D Rep. Brent Talley (D) 41.4% Danny Watson (R) 56.8% Cecil Anderson (L) 1.6% District 4-Vaught, R Rep. DeAnn Vaught (R) 73.2% Fonda Hawthorne (D) 26.7% District 7- Baine, D Floyd Thomas, Jr. (D) 53.0% Sonia Eubanks Barker (R) 39.5% Glenn Glover (I) 7.3% District 9- Lampkin D Leanne Burch (D) 100% District 10- Holcomb, R Rep. Mike Holcomb (R) 63.6% Dorothy Hall (D) 36.3% District 14- Bennett, D Rep. Camille Bennett (D) 47.9% Roger Lynch (R) 52.1% Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 4

5 District 15- Bragg, R Rep. Ken Bragg (R) 83.0% Wayne Willems (L) 16.9% District 18-Womack, R Rep. Richard Womack (R) 56.1% Richard Bright (D) 43.9% District 20- Bell, I John Maddox (R) 84.1% Henry T. Nielson (I) 15.8% District 25- Vines, D Les Warren (R) 58.6% Jerome M. Rephan (D) 41.3% District 27- J.Mayberry,R Andy Mayberry (R) 69.9% Melissa Larkan Fults (D) 30.0% District 29- Love, D Rep. Fred Love (D) 86.3% Glen Schwarz (L) 13.6% District 32- Sorvillo, R Rep. Jim Sorvillo (R) 56.2% Susan Inman (D) 43.7% District 33- Sabin, D Rep. Warwick Sabin (D) 77.9% Michael Allen Williams (L) 22.0% District 38- Copeland, R Carlton Wing (R) 52.0% Victoria Leigh (D) 47.9% District 39- Lowery, R Rep. Mark Lowery (R) 54.0% William "Bill" Rahn (D) 45.9% District 42- Johnson, D Rep. Bob Johnson (D) 58.4% Patrick Thomas (R) 41.5% District 44- Farrer, R Rep. Joe Farrer (R) 81.7% Gary Baker (L) 18.2% District 49- Wright, D Rep. Marshall Wright (D) 44.3% Steve Hollowell (R) 55.6% District 54- Wallace, R Johnny Rye (R) 74.2% Hunter Williams (D) 25.7% District 57- Broadaway, D Jimmy Gazaway (R) 65.9% Frankie Gillam (D) 34.0% Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 5

6 District 58- Smith, R Rep. Brandt Smith (R) 55.5% Nate Looney (D) 44.4% District 60- Ratliff, D Rep. James Ratliff (D) 49.1% I Frances Cavenaugh (R) 50.8% District 61- Baltz, D Rep. Scott Baltz (D) 50.4% Marsh Davis (R) 45.3% Christopher Olson (L) 4.2% District 69- Overby, D George Overby, Jr. (D) 41.6% Aaron Pilkington (R) 58.3% District 72- Magie, D Rep. Steve Magie (D) 59.9% Shannon L. Taylor (R) 40.0% District 73- Bentley, R Rep. Mary Bentley (R) 75.7% Lesa Wolfe Cromwell (D) 24.2% District 77- Boyd, R Rep. Justin Boyd (R) 70.0% Stephen Edwards (L) 29.9% District 81- Harris, R Bruce Coleman (R) 72.1% Susan K. McGaughey (D) 27.8% District 85- Whitaker, D Rep. David Whitaker (D) 52.9% Dwight Gonzales (R) 47.1% District 89- Neal, R Jeff Williams (R) 56.1% Irvin Camacho (D) 43.8% District 94- Petty, R Rep. Rebecca Petty (R) 54.3% Grimsley Graham (D) 45.6% District 95- Scott, R Austin McCollum (R) 75.8% Grant Brand (L) 24.1% District 96- Hodges, R Rep. Grant Hodges (R) 71.4% Michael Kalagias (L) 28.5% District 99- vacant Richard Bernard (L) 17.9% Jack Fortner (R) 82.0% Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 6

7 Arkansas Ballot Issue Analysis: Issue 1: Proposing An Amendment To The Arkansas Constitution Concerning The Terms, Election, And Eligibility Of Elected Officials Issue 1 will allow four year terms for certain elected county officials, prevent certain elected county officials from also being appointed or elected to a civil office, allow unopposed candidates to be elected without their name appearing on the ballot and define what infamous crime means in regards to who is not allowed to hold an elected position. PASS 70.2% FOR 29.7% AGAINST Issue 2: A Constitutional Amendment To Allow The Governor To Retain His Or Her Powers And Duties When Absent From The State Issue 2 will allow the governor to remain in charge while traveling out of the state or country. The state constitution will modify Amendment 6 by removing the phrase, absence from the state. PASS 72.4% FOR 27.5% AGAINST Issue 3: An Amendment To The Arkansas Constitution Concerning Job Creation, Job Expansion, And Economic Development Issue 3 will amend Article 12 and Amendments 62 and 82 of the state constitution. The changes will impact bond obligations and usage as well as placing additional control in local municipalities and counties. PASS 65.2% FOR 34.7% AGAINST Issue 6: Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment Of 2016 Issue 6 will establish regulations to legalize the issuance of medical marijuana to qualified patients. Under state law, a new system will be organized for growing and distributing medical marijuana. The state Department of Health will be required to oversee all aspects of the program including how medical professionals prescribe cannabis and how it is acquired by patients. PASS 53.1% FOR 46.8% AGAINST Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 7

8 2016 General election Takeaways AR State House/Senate Analysis: State Senate (Republicans pickup one seat): Wallace defeats Burnett with over 60% of the vote. Republicans will hold 26 seats, while Democrats will only maintain 9 seats. Senator Jonathan Dismang (R) was elected to serve as the President Pro-Tem during the 2016 General Assembly and is expected to maintain that position. State House (Republicans add eight to their majority): The previous balance of power within the State House was Election results move that margin to Democrats remained hopeful they could defend their incumbents while picking up at least two seats to gain control. However, Republicans were successful in recruiting top tier candidates for a number of seats that have historically been relatively safe for Democrats. For democrats to regain control, a clean sweep of contested races was needed. Instead, Tuesday s results provided the Republicans with an eight seat pickup which keeps the House under control of the Republicans. Representative Jeremy Gillam (R) has was elected to serve as the Speaker of the House in 2016 and hopes to maintain his position in the upcoming session. Red continues to saturate: Arkansas continues to vote red in every measurable category. The 2016 General Election resulted in Republican gains in both the State House and State Senate. While not in cycle until 2018, all four constitutional officers are Republican: Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. The federal delegation consists of four Republicans in the House and two Republicans in the Senate. Among this group, there were a handful of contested races, but the end result returned all incumbents to office by large margins. Early in the election year, many democrats expressed hope that Hillary Clinton s candidacy would provide a boost to local democrats on the ballot and slow the D to R party conversion of Arkansas that has been evident in the last three election cycles. These hopes proved unfounded as democrats lost additional ground in all segments of government, ranging from the General Assembly to county level offices. Despite winning the popular vote nationally, Hillary Clinton lost Arkansas and the electoral vote resulting in Donald Trump s victory as president of the United States. Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 8

9 Turnout Increased voter turnout was evident across the nation this election cycle and Arkansas was no exception. Early voters in the 2016 cycle totaled 606,332. For perspective, the total number of votes cast in 2014 were 852,642. While the Secretary of State is still working to finalize the number of votes cast within the state during 2016, the early estimates point towards more than 30% increase in voter turnout. What s next? The Elections are over and its time to govern. In Arkansas, the 91 st General Assembly of Arkansas convenes Monday, January 9, Nationally, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45 th President of the United States on January 20, Congress will convene on January 3, 2017 to begin the 115 th Congress from Noble Strategies 2016 General Election Analysis 9