Voters back hospitals bid to expand Medicaid; reject religious freedom case not to serve gays; gun control moves voters in swing state Virginia

Transcription

1 February 11, 2016 Voters back hospitals bid to expand Medicaid; reject religious freedom case not to serve gays; gun control moves voters in swing state Virginia Summary of Key Findings 1. A strong majority of voters say the General Assembly should accept Virginia hospitals offer to cover the state s 10% share of Medicaid expansion; but they worry whether Washington is good for its 90%. 2. Gun control remains a hot election issue. Virginians broadly support initiatives, especially women, minorities, young voters and independents. 3. Voters say businesses should not be allowed to refuse service to gays and lesbians based on the owner s religious objections to homosexuality. 4. Virginians think the creation of the ethics advisory council and the $100 per year limit on money and gifts goes far enough on ethics reform. 5. Small majorities would create an independent redistricting commission and bar the use of partisan voting data in drawing election boundaries. 6. Trump was right: ependents opposed the GOP presidential primary affiliation statement and many were less likely to vote because of it. For Further Information Contact: Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director McMurran Hall 264 Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy Christopher Newport University Mobile (757) qkidd@cnu.edu Newport News, VA

2 Analysis The State of Things: Virginians are a little moody While Virginians are more optimistic about the state of things in the Commonwealth (Q1) than in the country (Q2), their optimism has dropped on both accounts over the last year. Forty percent of registered voters say things in the Commonwealth are heading in the right direction, while only 24% say things in the country are moving in the right direction. Optimism about Virginia stood at 51% in January Approval of the job Governor Terry McAuliffe is doing, currently at 45% (Q3), has ranged between 44% and 53% in Wason Center polling since he took office in January Attorney General Mark Herring s approval rated 33% versus 27% disapproval (Q4), slipping from in September Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam s approval rated 26% versus 12% disapproval (Q5), unchanged since September Ethics Reform: Voters are satisfied. The General Assembly may have done enough to satisfy Virginia voters on ethics reform. With 71% saying they are satisfied, voters approve of the creation of an ethics advisory council and the imposed limit of $100 per year on money and gifts that elected officials can accept from any one person. Satisfaction is highest among liberals, whites, and female voters. African Americans are the least satisfied with the reforms, though a majority (56%) do say they are satisfied. While it took the General Assembly a couple of legislative sessions to get there, and it may not completely satisfy good government advocates, the voting public does appear satisfied with these ethics reforms, said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy. Absent additional scandals, the General Assembly is unlikely to feel strong voter pressure to enact further reforms in the near future. Redistricting: The proposal to make it non-partisan splits on partisan lines. A year filled with lawsuits over election district boundaries, the court s overturning the General Assembly-drawn congressional maps, and a more vocal reform movement, does appear to have increased public awareness and familiarity with redistricting (Q8). Just over half (52%) of Virginia voters say they are familiar with redistricting, up from 47% in January Younger voters (those ), women, and ideological conservatives are least familiar, while ideological moderates are most familiar. However, support for two major redistricting reforms remains about where it was a year ago. A slight majority (51%) support creating an independent redistricting commission (Q9), down from 54% in January The question of taking redistricting away from the General Assembly shows clear partisan differences. Support for an independent commission wins a distinct majority among liberals (65%), ocrats (64%), and moderates (57%), while opposition and support are almost evenly divided among conservatives (40%-39%) and ublicans (40%-43%), with neither having a majority. Support for prohibiting the use of partisan voting information in redistricting (Q10) enjoys the support of 54% of voters, and appears a less polarizing issue, with ocrats and ublicans supporting it at similar rates. Younger voters who are among the least familiar with redistricting in general, are the most supportive of this proposal at 2

3 63%. Ideological conservatives and African Americans are the least supportive at 46%, with black voters perhaps linking the use of partisan voting data to the preservation of black majority districts. Medicaid Expansion: A majority backs expansion but doubt about federal money resonates. Support for the general notion of expanding the Medicaid program (Q11) stands at 61%, driven by huge support among African Americans (92%), ideological liberals (92%), and ocrats (87%). The question divides sharply along partisan and ideological lines, with 58% of ublicans and 56% of conservatives opposing expansion. There is also a sharp divide along gender lines, with women supporting expansion by nearly 10% over men, 63% to 54%. One of the primary arguments of opponents of expansion that the federal government will not pay its entire share in the future resonates with voters (Q12), with 62% saying they have the same worry. Concern is highest among ideological conservatives (78%) and ublicans (82%), but also significantly higher than the average among younger voters (70%). Additionally, while 63% of female voters support expansion, 64% of them say they also worry about the federal government paying its share in the future. Hospitals Medicaid Offer: Voters like the idea of letting hospitals pay the state s share. Virginia voters generally like the offer made by hospitals to cover the state s portion of the cost for expanding Medicaid (Q13), with support highest among voters who are already supportive of expanding the program (African Americans, liberals, and ocrats) and lowest among those least supportive of expanding the program (conservatives and ublicans). Interestingly, younger voters and independents are more supportive of expanding Medicaid under the hospitals offer (68% support from each group) than they are of the general idea of expanding Medicaid. Certificate of Public Need: Voters show regional preferences, but no majority. The General Assembly is considering eliminating Virginia s Certificate of Public Need law, which regulates the number of certain medical facilities in a region (Q14). Voters are evenly split, with 42% supporting eliminating the law and 42% opposed. While there is a slight partisan element on this question, the more interesting story is the regional variation, with Northern Virginia voters slightly more supportive of eliminating the law (50%) and voters in mond and central Virginia significantly less supportive (31%). Younger voters () are more supportive of eliminating the law. Restoration of Felons Rights: Regardless of region or party, a majority of voters supports restoration. The automatic restoration of voting rights for anyone convicted of a non-violent felony crime who has completed their sentence is supported by 69% of Virginia voters (Q15). Self-identified liberals and African Americans are the strongest supporters (93% and 88%, respectively). There is a partisan element to views on this issue, with ocrats and liberals most supportive and ublicans and conservatives least supportive, but still a majority. There is also majority support in every region, although Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads voters are less supportive than mond and Central Virginia voters and Southside/southwest voters. 3

4 LGBT Rights: Voters oppose letting businesses refuse to serve same-sex couples. Virginia voters solidly oppose a proposal to allow businesses to refuse services to gay and lesbian couples based upon religious beliefs (Q16), with 57% saying they oppose such a proposal. Opposition is widespread, but highest among ideological liberals (86%) and ocrats (77%), followed by ideological moderates (62%) and independents (65%). Only ideological conservatives and ublicans support the measure, 60% and 56%, respectively. The Virginia electorate has moved dramatically on same sex marriage since voters banned it by approving the Virginia Marriage Amendment in 2006, said Kidd. Today, a fairly decisive majority say businesses should not be able to discriminate against gay and lesbian couples even if homosexuality violates their religious beliefs. Gun Control: Voters are willing. In 2013, Terry McAuliffe won a close race for governor while touting his F rating from the NRA. In 2015, ocrats made gun control a central issue in some key state Senate races, to mixed results. Why are ocrats seemingly more eager to talk about guns and gun control today than at any time since the 1994 midterm elections? In part because the data suggests that the voting public, especially the ocratic coalition, is amenable to gun control arguments. By the slimmest margin, a majority of 51% of voters say they support Attorney General Herring s decision not to recognize concealed carry permits from 25 states that do not have the same standards as Virginia (Q17). While the issue clearly demonstrates a partisan divide (ocrats and liberals strongly support it, while ublicans and conservatives strongly oppose it), the vote-rich regions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads support the decision (55% and 51%, respectively), as do ideological moderates (53%), political independents (52%), and women (56%). Voters are slightly more opposed to (49%) than supportive of (46%) a blanket recognition of concealed carry permits from any state (Q18). Again, while the usual partisan contours exist, opponents are aided by the views of ideological moderates (52% oppose), voters in Northern Virginia (54% oppose), and women (50% oppose). Among Virginia voters there is a small but significant majority who say it is more important to control who can buy guns (55%) than it is to protect the rights of Virginians to own guns (41%) (Q19). The intensity among ocrats (82%) and liberals (81%) for controlling gun ownership is greater than the intensity among ublicans (66%) and conservatives (62%) for protecting the rights of gun owners. African Americans are strongly of the view that controlling who can own guns (84%) is more important than protecting people s rights to own guns. Women, political independents, and ideological moderates are also more supportive of controlling ownership than protecting rights. On four specific policy proposals related to guns and gun control two typically advocated by gun control proponents and two typically advocated by gun rights proponents voters lean toward gun control in all but one. On the question of making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks (Q20a), 88% are supportive, and the support crosses all demographic, social, and political categories. On the question of banning assault-style weapons (Q20b), 62% of voters are supportive, but 4

5 there is a sharp partisan and ideological divide. What drives opinion is the strong support of women (75%), moderates (64%), and independents (66%). On the question of allowing anyone who legally owns a gun to conceal carry without a permit (Q20c), voters are strongly opposed (84%). Opposition is across party lines and widespread. However, a small majority (52%) of voters are in favor of allowing faculty at Virginia colleges and universities to conceal carry (Q20d), and support for this proposal is propelled by stronger than average support from independents (59%), ideological moderates (54%), and those under 45 (64%). Virginia has emerged in the last decades as a battleground state, and if the 2013 gubernatorial race and the 2015 state legislative races are any indication, gun control will be a central part of the debate going forward. Hillary Clinton has certainly not been shy in talking about gun control on the presidential campaign trail, said Kidd. These data suggest that ocrats who campaign on gun control in Virginia will be dependent upon key elements of their electorate showing up to vote: women, minorities, independents, and voters under 45. These voters explain why ocrats are more eager to talk about gun control. An Early Look at Four people have either announced they are running for governor in 2017, or have been mentioned as possible candidates (Q6a-d). Former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who lost the gubernatorial election to Terry McAuliffe in 2013, has the highest proportion of voters who know him well enough to express an opinion, but those opinions are closely divided. With 31% favorable and 29% unfavorable, Cuccinelli s net favorability rating is +2 (31-29) not in unfavorable territory, but very low. Former ublican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, who nearly defeated incumbent Senator Mark Warner in 2014, has the next highest share of opinion and the highest net favorability rating at +9 (22-13). The lowest proportion of voters has an opinion of First District Congressman Rob Wittman, but his net favorability is +7 (13-6). Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam, who is widely regarded as the favorite for the ocrats nomination for governor in 2017, has a very high share of voters who don t know enough about him to express an opinion (64%), and a low net favorability rating of +1 (12-11). Donald Trump Was Right! By a 2-1 margin, self-identified ublicans, independents who lean ublican, and independents opposed the statement of party affiliation that was until last week going to be a requirement for voting in the March 1 ublican primary (Q21). ependents were most opposed (74%), followed by voters in the mond region (70%), and ideological moderates (67%). ublican voters were also strongly opposed (59%). Supporters of ublican presidential candidate Donald Trump filed suit in federal court in an unsuccessful attempt to have the statement removed (before the ublican Party voluntarily removed it last week). Trump argued that his supporters included independents, moderates, and some ocrats, and that those groups would be unlikely to vote in the primary if they had to sign the statement. Trump appears to have been right, with 41% of independents and 35% of moderates saying they were less likely to vote in the primary because of the affiliation statement (Q22). 5

6 Field Dates: January Registered Virginia Voters Margin of Error = +/- 3.8% Q1: Overall, would you say things in the COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA are heading more in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Mixed (vol) Wrong Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Sept Jan Jan Jan Feb Right Mixed (vol) Wrong Dk/ref (vol) Q2: And how about the country overall, would you say things in the UNITED STATES are heading more in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Mixed (vol) Wrong Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Sept Jan Jan Jan Feb Right Mixed (vol) Wrong Dk/ref (vol)

7 Q3: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor? [IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON T KNOW] Approve Disapprove Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Sept Jan Sept Apr Approve Disapprove Dk/ref (vol) Q4: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Herring is handling his job as Attorney General of Virginia? [IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Herring is handling his job as Attorney General? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON T KNOW] Approve Disapprove Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Sept Approve 39 Disapprove 19 Dk/ref (vol) 42 Q5: [READ] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor of Virginia? [IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON T KNOW] Approve Disapprove Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Sept Approve 26 Disapprove 12 Dk/ref (vol) 62 7

8 Q6: Several people have either announced they are running or are considering running for Governor of Virginia in As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or if you don t know enough about them to have an opinion. Ok, here is the first one [NAMES ROTATED] a. Ed Gillespie Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Dk/Ref (vol) b. Ralph Northam Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Dk/Ref (vol) c. Ken Cuccinelli Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Dk/Ref (vol) d. Rob Wittman Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Dk/Ref (vol)

9 Q7: In the past several years there has been a lot of controversy about the ethics of public officials in Virginia. Last year the General Assembly passed several reforms, including creating an ethics advisory council and imposing a limit of $100 per year on money and gifts that can be taken from any one person. Are you generally [RANDOMIZE: satisfied or dissatisfied ] that these reforms go far enough? Satisfied Not sure (vol) Dissatisfied Dk/Ref (vol) Q8: Legislative election district boundaries for the General Assembly and Congress are redrawn every ten years after the census, a process known as REDISTRICTING. How familiar are you with the redistricting process in Virginia, would you say generally familiar or generally unfamiliar? Familiar Not sure (vol) Unfamiliar Dk/Ref (vol) 1 1 Trends: Jan Familiar 47 Not sure (vol) 2 Unfamiliar 51 Dk/ref (vol) 1 Q9: Virginia s constitution gives the General Assembly the sole power to do redistricting. There is a proposal before the General Assembly to change the Virginia constitution by taking authority over redistricting away from the General Assembly and establishing an independent redistricting commission to draw new district boundaries. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this proposal? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Jan Support 54 No view (vol) 13 Oppose 31 Dk/ref (vol) 2 9

10 Q10: There is another proposal before the General Assembly to prohibit the use of partisan voting information that is information on the number of votes cast for ocrats and ublicans in a given area when drawing new district boundaries. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this proposal? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Trends: Jan Support 55 No view (vol) 9 Oppose 35 Dk/ref (vol) 1 Q11: Medicaid is a health care program for low income families and individuals that is funded with both federal and state money. Currently, the General Assembly is faced with a decision about whether to expand the Medicaid program to cover an additional 400,000 mostly working poor Virginians who are uninsured. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] Medicaid expansion? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Q12: If Virginia expanded its Medicaid program, the state would eventually pay up to 10% of the cost of the expansion, with the federal government paying the remaining 90%. However, some people worry that in the future the federal government will not pay its entire part, and that the state will be left to cover that cost too. Would you be worried or not worried that the federal government would continue to pay its entire share to the state? Worried No view (vol) Not worried Dk/Ref (vol)

11 Q13: To encourage Virginia to expand Medicaid, hospitals have offered to make contributions so that hospitals - not taxpayers - cover the state s 10% cost. Should the General Assembly accept the hospital s offer and expand Medicaid under these terms? Yes No view (vol) No Dk/Ref (vol) Q14: There is a proposal before the General Assembly to eliminate the law that regulates how many hospitals and other specialized medical facilities there can be in any given area. Opponents of the law say this change would drive down costs and make more services available by injecting free-market competition into health care. Supporters of the law say eliminating it would weaken hospitals by allowing the other facilities to cherry pick the most profitable types of care, but leaving hospitals to cover other money losing types of care. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] the proposal to eliminate this law? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Q15: Currently under Virginia law, anyone who has been convicted of a felony crime does not automatically have their right to vote restored after they have completed their sentence, but instead must apply to have their right to vote restored by the Governor. There is a proposal before the General Assembly to make the restoration of voting rights automatic for anyone convicted of a non-violent felony crime who has completed their sentence. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this proposal? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol)

12 Q16: As you know, the Supreme Court ruled same-sex marriage to be legal in all fifty states. There is a proposal before the General Assembly that would allow businesses to refuse service to gays and lesbians if the business says homosexuality violates the owners religious beliefs. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this proposal? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Q17: Recently Virginia s Attorney General announced that Virginia would stop recognizing concealed carry gun permits from 25 states that don t have the same standards for a concealed gun permit as Virginia. Supporters say this ensures that anyone with a concealed carry gun permit in Virginia meets Virginia s standards. Opponents say it unfairly penalizes people who have a legal concealed carry gun permit from another states. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this decision? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) Q18: There is a proposal before the General Assembly that would require Virginia to recognize concealed carry gun permits from all states that issue them, regardless of the standards the states require a person to meet in order to get a permit. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] this decision? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol)

13 Q19: Generally speaking, what do you think is more important [RANDOMIZE: to protect the rights of Virginians to own guns OR to control who can buy guns ]? Do you feel strongly about that view, or is that just a general view? Feel strongly protect rights 29 General view protect rights 12 General view control ownership 19 Feel strongly control ownership 36 Dk/ref (vol) 4 Protect (combined) Control (combined) Dk/Ref (vol) Q20: I m going to read several proposals that people have made about gun policy, and I d like you to tell me if you favor or oppose each one. Ok, here is the first one.. a. Making private gun sales and sales at guns shows subject to background checks. Favor No opinion Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) b. A ban on assault-style weapons Favor No opinion Oppose Dk/Ref (vol)

14 c. ow anyone who legally owns a gun to conceal carry without a permit Favor No opinion Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) d. ow full-time faculty at Virginia colleges and universities to carry concealed handguns on campus Favor No opinion Oppose Dk/Ref (vol) PARTYID: In politics today, do you generally consider yourself to be a ublican, an ependent who leans ublican, an ependent that doesn t lean ublican or ocratic, an ependent who leans ocratic, or a ocrat? ublican 21 ependent lean ublican 20 ependent 16 ependent lean ocrat 14 ocrat 24 No preference (vol) 3 Other party (vol) 1 Dk/ref (vol) 2 [ASK IF PARTYID = ublican, ependent lean ublican, or ependent] Q21: Anyone who wants to vote in the upcoming ublican presidential primary in Virginia on March 1 must sign an affiliation statement before they are given a ballot that reads: My signature below indicates that I am a ublican. Do you [RANDOMIZE: support or oppose ] having this affiliation statement? Support No view (vol) Oppose Dk/Ref (vol)

15 Q22: Does this affiliation statement make you [RANDOMIZE: more or less ] likely to vote in the March 1 ublican presidential primary? More Not sure (vol) Less Dk/Ref (vol) ographics EDUC: High school or less 12 Some college 22 Vocational or technical training 4 College graduate 39 Graduate study or more 22 HISPANIC: Yes 3 No 96 Dk/ref (vol) 1 RACE: 72 or African American 19 Other 9 RELIG: Protestant 31 Christian (non-specific) (vol) 22 Catholic 12 Jewish 2 Other 17 None (vol) 13 Dk/ref (vol) 3 IDEOL: Strong liberal 5 eral 13 erate, leaning liberal 15 erate, leaning conservative 25 ervative 23 Strong ervative 10 Dk/ref (vol) 10 15

16 AGE: & older 43 TEA PARTY: Support 20 Oppose 42 No view 35 Dk/ref (vol) 3 INCOME: Under $25,000 5 $25-$49, $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$149, Over $150, Dk/ref (vol) 15 REGION: Northern Virginia 33 mond/central 21 Hampton Roads 24 South/Southwest 22 SEX: How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 804 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 430 on landline and 374 on cell phone, conducted January 18-29, Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/- 3.8% at the 95% level of confidence. error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey s design effect, which is 1.2 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples will have higher margins of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 12%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. 16