DATE: August 26, RE: Election Update Issue 6

Transcription

1 FROM: HP+P DATE: August 26, 2014 RE: Election Update Issue 6 With August recess winding down, Congress will soon return to Washington to wrap up the last few weeks of legislative business before the November election. Both chambers return to session on Monday, September 8, and expectations are low for any major legislation to pass in the short session. The Senate is targeting Tuesday, September 23, to adjourn until after the November election. Congress will, however, need to pass a continuing resolution to fund the federal government beyond the end of the fiscal year on September 30. The bill could include riders on the southern border and other hot button issues. While DC enjoys a quiet August, things are busy in the rest of the country, with all Senate incumbents successfully defeating their primary challengers and the vast majority of House incumbents returning to the ballot in November. These victories fly in the face of the public s perception of Congress, which remains low. Both parties are facing low popularity ratings and congressional approval ratings currently hover in the low teens. With approximately ten weeks to go until the election, control of the Senate remains up in the air with a few races holding the key to control for both parties. Republicans are likely to maintain control over the House despite House Democrats fundraising advantage. Democrats are fighting to maintain control of the Senate and are continuing to seek to pick up seats in the House. Democrats across the nation are implementing a grassroots, voter expansion campaign reminiscent of President Obama s campaigns aimed at boosting voter turnout in key areas and among key demographics. Last week, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced that the DNC will provide specific election tools to state parties, promote web-based information for voters to learn about where and when to vote, and send voter expansion teams into key states, such as Georgia. Key Dates Tuesday, August 26 Primaries in Arizona and Florida, Oklahoma Runoff Tuesday, September 9 Primaries in New Hampshire and Massachusetts Tuesday, November 4 Election Day Saturday, December 6 Louisiana Runoff (if needed) Tuesday, January 6, 2015 Georgia Runoff (if needed)

2 Race Predictions This report provides a diversity of predictions and draws on data from four different polling sites: RealClearPolitics, the Cook Political Report, the New York Times Upshot model or Leo, and Nate Silver s FiveThirtyEight. Each source is well respected and often cited by members of both parties, and all of the sites use different methodologies when calculating their predictions. RealClearPolitics takes a weighted average of recent polling data, Cook Political Report relies on a wide variety of data including recent Presidential elections, and Leo and FiveThirtyEight build their own algorithms to predict outcomes. SENATE Existing polls and projections Senate Snapshot slightly favor Republicans taking control over the Senate, but a number of key races are still too competitive to guarantee the switch of power. Republicans seem likely to pick up seats in Montana, South Current makeup: Number of seats up: Net gain for GOP to take control: 55D*, 45R 36 (21D, 15R) 6 Dakota, and West Virginia, but *Includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats the party must still gain three additional seats, without losing seats in competitive races such as Georgia and Kentucky, to secure the Senate majority. In their attempt to gain control of the Senate, Republicans have engaged in a nationwide push for voters to see the Senate elections as a wider referendum on the Obama Administration s policies and on Senate Democrats, particularly Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). As part of this strategy, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R- KY), in a recent interview with Politico, detailed his plan for the Senate should Republicans take the majority. McConnell would adopt a confrontational approach where Republicans would attach policy riders to spending bills to rein in Obama Administration actions on issues from healthcare to the environment. Through this approach, McConnell hopes to force the President to accept congressional riders or risk future government shutdowns. Democrats have categorized this approach as a platform of gridlock and obstruction. News from the Front Lines Alaska: Former Alaska Attorney General Dan Sullivan won the Republican Senate primary on August 19, defeating Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell and Tea Party favorite Joe Miller. Incumbent Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) easily won the Democratic nomination. Recent polling demonstrates that the race

3 is incredibly competitive and too close to call at this time. Arkansas: In a recent ad, Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) discussed his support for the Affordable Care Act, a rare move for a vulnerable Democrat in this election cycle. In the ad, Pryor does not mention the law by name, or by its common nickname Obamacare, but discusses the law s protections for individuals with preexisting conditions. Recent polls show Pryor trailing his opponent, U.S. Representative Tom Cotton (R-AR), but the race is essentially in a statistical tie. Colorado: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) launched a $1 million ad campaign in support of incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D-CO). The campaign blasts Republican Senate candidate U.S. Representative Cory Gardner s (R-CO) opposition to abortion in cases of rape and incest, calling Gardner s views too extreme for Colorado. The ad buy came just days after Karl Rove s Crossroads GPS ordered $6 million in ads for Colorado in support of Gardner. Udall currently maintains a slight lead in the polls in Colorado, which is one of the key battleground states in the fight for control of the Senate. Georgia: During a debate on August 21, Georgia Democratic Senate nominee Michelle Nunn attacked Republican nominee David Perdue for his support for the government shutdown at the end of last year, as well as his opposition to the Farm Bill and comprehensive immigration reform. When asked about his support of the government shutdown, Perdue declined to rebut the accusation, taking jabs instead at the Affordable Care Act and the federal debt. The race is expected to remain competitive until November. Hawaii: Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) narrowly defeated U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic Senate primary following delayed voting in a few precincts from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz will now face Republican nominee Republican Cam Cavasso in the race to finish the last two years of late Senator Daniel Inouye s (D-HI) term. Prior to his death, Inouye asked Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Hanabusa to his Senate seat, but Abercrombie selected Schatz instead, a decision that contributed to Abercrombie s loss in his primary. Schatz is expected to easily win the election in the fall. Kentucky: Adhering to the national Republican strategy to sell the election as a chance for voters to oust Senate Majority Leader Reid, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell s campaign has begun to tout McConnell as an agent of change for Kentucky voters. At a candidate forum at the Kentucky Farm Bureau s headquarters in Louisville, McConnell emphasized Democratic opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes support of Reid and President Obama, and balked at the idea that Grimes could bring a fresh perspective to the Senate. In response, Grimes said that she would defend Kentucky interests in the areas of agriculture and energy, and criticized McConnell s inaction on comprehensive immigration reform and the Farm Bill.

4 Louisiana: The Louisiana election will likely move into a runoff in December among the top two candidates, incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Republican Representative Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Louisiana does not have party primaries, thus all candidates run in one election where one must secure a majority of votes to avoid a runoff. Currently, most projections do not give Landrieu, Cassidy, or any other candidate a majority of votes in November. Cassidy has led Landrieu slightly in polls for a potential runoff, but the race remains highly competitive. The Louisiana race is crucial to both parties in the fight for control of the Senate, and will have an outsized impact on the lame duck agenda. Michigan: Freedom Partners, a conservative PAC backed by the Koch brothers, cancelled a $1.1 million ad buy in Michigan in early August. Though Freedom Partners has yet to explain the cancellation, Democrats have attacked Republican Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land s connection to the Koch brothers and have aired ads that claim that the brothers are attempting to buy the Senate seat. Though most polls suggest that the race is competitive, Democrats are largely favored to take the open seat. Montana: Montana Democrats have selected state Representative Amanda Curtis to replace Senator John Walsh (D-MT) after he dropped out of the race due to claims that his Master s thesis was plagiarized. Curtis, who is a math teacher from Butte, Montana, has served one term in the Montana Legislature. In the past, Curtis has voiced support for labor unions and women s rights, and called upon Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) to work to increase background checks for gun owners. Prior to her nomination, Curtis received endorsements from two of Montana's largest labor unions, the AFL-CIO and the MEA-MFT educators group. New Hampshire: The most recent WMUR Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) placed Republican Scott Brown within two points of Democratic incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), suggesting the race is seemingly tied. However, as FiveThirtyEight noted in its analysis of the poll, almost all other polls covering the race have given Shaheen a significant lead over Brown, with no poll placing Brown within three points of Shaheen in the last six months. Ultimately, the UNH poll may actually demonstrate that Brown is gaining on Shaheen, but Shaheen remains the expected victor. This poll comes just a few weeks before the New Hampshire primary, scheduled for September 9. North Carolina: A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) leads Republican challenger Thom Tillis by only two points. The poll demonstrated a harsh gender divide in the race, with Hagan leading by 18 points among female voters and Tillis leading by 12 points among men. Recent polling in the race has also found that both candidates remain highly unpopular with voters. Approximately 49 percent of voters disapprove of Hagan s job performance, while 48 percent have an

5 unfavorable view of Tillis. Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 34 Not Up D 9 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 5 Safely D 11 Safely R 5 Likely D 3 Likely R 1 Lean D 2 Lean R Total 45 D 9 Toss-up 46 R Since the last update, RealClearPolitics downgraded KS (Roberts-R) from Safely R to Lean R. Toss-up races (incumbent candidate in parentheses): AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), KY (McConnell-R), LA (Landrieu-D), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan-D). Cook Political Report Projections: 34 Not Up D 9 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 7 Safely D 11 Safely R 3 Likely D 4 Likely R 1 Lean D 1 Lean R Total 45 D 9 Toss-up 46 R Since the last election update, the Cook Political Report moved MT (open-d) from Lean R to Likely R and KS (Roberts-R) from Safely R to Likely R. Toss-up races: AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), KY (McConnell-R), LA (Landrieu-D), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan-D). New York Times Projections: 45 Likely D 8 Competitive 46 Likely R Total 45 D 8 Competitive 47 R Since the last election update, the New York Times moved KY (McConnell-R) from Likely R to competitive. Toss-up races: AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), GA (open-r), IA (open-d), LA (Landrieu-D), MI (open-d), and NC (Hagan- D).

6 FiveThirtyEight Projections: 34 Not Up D 6 Toss-up 30 Not Up R 10 Safely D 15 Safely R 1 Likely D 1 Likely R 1 Lean D 2 Lean R Total 46 D 6 Toss-up 48 R FiveThirtyEight has not updated its projections since the last election update. Toss-up Races: AK (Begich-D), AR (Pryor-D), CO (Mark Udall-D), IA (open-d), LA (Landrieu- D), and NC (Hagan-D). HOUSE The National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman (NRCC) named four new candidates to their Young Guns program, which identifies top recruits for the November elections. The four candidates, CA33 (Carr), CT04 (Debicella), CT05 (Greenberg), and NY04 (Blakeman), are all running in districts that have been strongly Democratic in past cycles. House Snapshot Current makeup: 199D, 233R, 3 vacancies Number of seats up: 435 Net gain for Dems to take control: 19 Karl Rove s Crossroads GPS announced that it will invest $3.1 million in five House races for seats currently held by Democrats. The largest investments target Representative Ami Bera (D-CA) and Representative Scott Peters (D-CA), two races that are top targets for House Republicans and that are rated as highly competitive. The NRCC has also set up websites designed to look like local news sites, but in fact are partisan attacks on Democratic candidates. The sites are promoted through local web searches and target endangered incumbents, as well as strong challengers in competitive races across the country. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is criticizing the use of these sites, a charge that the NRCC has attributed to jealousy. News from the Front Lines AZ-02: Representative Ron Barber (D-AZ) highlighted his efforts to keep the A- 10 Warthog plane based in his district against objections from the Department of Defense. The ads countered spots run by his opponent, Martha McSally, who highlighted her career in the military as one of her greatest assets. The race is one of the most competitive in the nation.

7 Florida: A federal judge ruled that the newly drawn map of congressional districts will not take place until 2016, leaving in place the gerrymandered districts passed by the Florida legislature in The decision delays the implementation of the new map and could give opponents to the map more time to mount legal challenges. FL-26: Former Representative David Rivera was named a co-conspirator in a plot to commit criminal campaign finance violations. The charges allege that Rivera conspired with a friend to funnel campaign contributions in 2012 to an unknown Democrat running in a primary against Democrat Joe Garcia who won the primary and beat Rivera in the general election. The FL-26 is targeted as a highly competitive race, but if Rivera wins the Republican nomination tonight, it could keep the seat in the Democratic column. NY-11: The DCCC will invest close to $1 million in advertising against Representative Michael Grimm (R-NY), who is a top target for Democrats this fall. Grimm faces a 20-count indictment on tax fraud charges, but is still competitive against his challenger, Democrat Domenic Recchia. Some operatives believe that Recchia s residency in Brooklyn is hurting him in a district that is mainly in Staten Island. Recchia released an ad to counter the charge that he lacks ties to Staten Island. TN-04: Representative Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) defeated primary challenger Jim Tracy by a mere 38 votes out of approximately 77,000 votes cast. DesJarlais, who was forecasted to be one of the most endangered incumbents this cycle, is widely expected to win reelection in the fall. Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 162 Safely D 17 Toss-up 198 Safely R 14 Likely D 17 Likely R 12 Lean D 15 Lean R Total 188 D 17 Toss-up 230 R RealClearPolitics has not adjusted its rankings since the last update. Toss-up races: AZ01 (Kirkpatrick-D), AZ02 (Barber-D), CA07 (Bera-D), CA36 (Ruiz-D), CA52 (Peters-D), CO06 (Coffman-R), FL18 (Murphy-D), FL26 (Garcia-D), IA03 (open-r), IL10 (Schneider-D), IL13 (Davis-R), ME02 (open-d), NE02 (Terry-R), NH01 (Shea- Porter-D), NY01 (Bishop-D), NY21 (open-d), and WV03 (Rahall-D).

8 Cook Political Report Projections: 160 Safely D 15 Toss-up 205 Safely R 15 Likely D 17 Likely R 13 Lean D 10 Lean R Total 188 D 15 Toss-up 232 R The Cook Political Report has not adjusted its rankings since the last update. Toss-up races: AZ01 (Kirkpatrick-D), AZ02 (Barber-D), CA07 (Bera-D), CA26 (Brownley-D), CA52 (Peters-D), CO06 (Coffman-R), FL18 (Murphy-D), FL26 (Garcia-D), IA03 (open- R), IL10 (Schneider-D), MA06 (Tierney-D), MN08 (Nolan-D), NH01 (Shea-Porter-D), NY21 (open-d), and WV03 (Rahall-D). New York Times Projections: The New York Times has not yet released projections for the 2014 elections for the House of Representatives. FiveThirtyEight Projections: FiveThirtyEight has not yet released projections for the 2014 elections for the House of Representatives. GOVERNORS There are currently 21 Democratic Governors and 29 Republican Governors. In 2014, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Vermont. Republican Governors Association (RGA) Chairman Chris Christie (R-NJ) continues to travel across the nation to support Republican incumbents. Christie will reach 26 states by the end of August. His efforts are contributing to massive fundraising totals with the RGA bringing in $60 million. The RGA is running ads in Kansas, Michigan and Maine to defend three of their most endangered incumbents, Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS), Governor Rick Snyder (R-MI), and Governor Paul LePage (R-ME).

9 News from the Front Lines Arkansas: Democratic nominee Mike Ross has outraised his Republican counterpart Asa Hutchinson by $2.3 million this year. However, Hutchinson maintains the cash on hand advantage with $828,973 versus Ross $343,650. Hutchinson has led in polls, but the race is expected to remain competitive through the fall. Arizona: The expensive Republican primary to replace Governor Jan Brewer (R- AZ) has been narrowed to three candidates: State Treasurer Doug Doucey, Christine Jones, and Scott Smith. All three tout endorsements from major outside groups and the winner will face Democrat Fred DuVal in the November election. Florida: Tonight, Charlie Crist is expected to win the Democratic nomination for governor, setting up a faceoff with the man who replaced him, Governor Rick Scott (R-FL). Unlike most candidates this cycle, Crist has said that he would welcome campaigning alongside President Obama. Kansas: Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS) made another misstep in his difficult reelection campaign against Democratic nominee Paul Davis. A recent ad that features Brownback discussing the economic progress made during his administration inadvertently features a Paul Davis supporter s campaign sign. Davis supporters heard that the commercial was being filmed and set up across the street from the shoot. Davis is leading Brownback in recent polls in a highly competitive race. Ohio: Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald had a number of his senior advisors resign, including his campaign manager and communications director. FitzGerald already faces a difficult battle against incumbent Governor John Kasich (R-OH), who has outraised FitzGerald by a 4 to 1 margin. Pennsylvania: Democratic nominee Tom Wolf received a major endorsement from the Pennsylvania chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police, an organization of current and former law enforcement personnel. The group endorsed Governor Tom Corbett (R-PA) in 2010, but cited the need for a change in its endorsement of Wolf. Polls have Wolf with a lead over Corbett in their fall showdown.

10 Polling Projections RealClearPolitics Projections: 7 Not Up D 9 Toss-up 7 Not Up R 5 Safely D 9 Safely R 4 Likely D 4 Likely R 1 Lean D 5 Lean R Total 17 D 9 Toss-up 24 R RealClearPolitics does not list AR (open-d) as a toss-up race. Rather, it has the race listed as leaning Republican. Since the last update, RealClearPolitics moved MN (Dayton-D) from Likely D to Leans D. Toss-up races: CO (Hickenlooper-D), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), GA (Deal-R), HI (Abercrombie-D), KS (Brownback-R), ME (LePage-R), MI (Snyder-R), and WI (Walker-R). Cook Political Report Projections: 7 Not Up D 10 Toss-up 7 Not Up R 4 Safely D 9 Safely R 4 Likely D 6 Likely R 2 Lean D 1 Lean R Total 17 D 10 Toss-up 23 R Since the last update, Cook Political Report moved CT (Malloy-D) and HI (open-d) from Leans D to Toss-up. Toss-up races: AR (open-d), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), HI (open-d), IL (Quinn-D), KS (Brownback-R), ME (LePage-R), MI (Snyder-R), PA (Corbett-R), and WI (Walker-R). New York Times Projections: The New York Times has not yet released projections for the 2014 governors races. FiveThirtyEight Projections: 16 Likely D 5 Competitive 20 Likely R Total 16 D 5 Competitive 20 R FiveThirtyEight has not adjusted its projections since the last update. FiveThirtyEight has not published predictions for Alaska, Hawaii, Maine, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Vermont. Hawaii, Maine, and South Dakota all have third-party candidates that are currently polling above 10 percent, increasing the margin of error for polls in the field while the other races lack enough general polling

11 data to draw significant projections. Competitive races: AZ (open-r), AR (open-d), CT (Malloy-D), FL (Scott-R), and KS (Brownback-R). KEY RACES Specific polling information on some of the most contested seats is set out below. For races that have not held primaries, polling data for the front runners for the nominations are indicated by italics. Incumbents are listed in bold. Senate Alaska Sullivan (R) 47, Begich (D) 45, Undecided 4 Begich (D) 45, Sullivan (R) 41, Undecided 14 Rasmussen (R) [MOE [MOE ±3.8] 8/25 8/5 Arkansas Pryor (D) 46, Cotton (R) 41 Opinion Research Associations (D) [MOE ±4.9] 8/21 Cotton (R) 43, Pryor (D) 41, Undecided 16 [MOE ±3.0] 8/5 Georgia Nunn (D) 47, Perdue (R) 40, Undecided 10 Landmark (R) [MOE 8/21 Perdue (R) 50 Nunn (D) 41, Undecided 6 SurveyUSA/WXIA-TV [MOE ±4.2] 8/18 Perdue (R) 48, Nunn (D) 42, Undecided 11 Hicks Evaluation Group (D) [MOE ±3.48] 8/12 Iowa Braley (D) 42, Ernst (R) 42, Undecided 16 Braley (D) 43, Ernst (R) 43, Undecided 9 Kansas Roberts (R) 43, Taylor (D) 25, Orman (I) 23, Undecided 17 Roberts (R) 40, Taylor (D) 27, Undecided 11 [MOE ±3.2] Rasmussen (R) [MOE [MOE ±3.3] SurveyUSA/KSN News Wichita [MOE ±2.9] 8/26 8/13 8/19 7/28

12 Kentucky McConnell (R) 44, Grimes (D) 40, Patterson (L) 7, Undecided 9 [MOE ±3.1] 8/12 Michigan Peters (D) 45, Land (R) 44 Peters (D) 45, Land (R) 39, Undecided 10 Mitchell Research [MOE ±5.0] Rasmussen (R) [MOE 8/7 7/30 Minnesota Franken (D) 51, McFadden (R) 42, Undecided 3 SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [MOE ±4.1] 8/26 Franken (D) 50, McFadden (R) 42 Rasmussen (R) [MOE 8/18 New Mexico Udall (D) 53, Weh (R) 35, Undecided 11 North Carolina Hagan (D) 45, Tillis (R) 43, Undecided 5 Hagan (D) 42, Tillis (R) 38, Undecided 13 Albuquerque Journal [MOE Suffolk/USA Today [MOE ±4.4] [MOE ±3.4] 8/18 8/20 8/19 Oregon Merkley (D) 52, Wehby (R) 33, Undecided 9 SurveyUSA/KATU-TV [MOE ±4.2] 8/7 South Dakota Rounds (R) 39, Weiland (D) 31, Pressler (I) 16 [MOE ±3.6] Tennessee Alexander (R) 47, Ball (D) 32 Rasmussen (R) [MOE West Virginia Capito (R) 50, Tennant (D) 33 Rasmussen (R) [MOE 8/15 8/14 8/21 Virginia Warner (D) 53, Gillespie (R) 28, Undecided 14 Hampton University [MOE ±2.9] 8/6 House AR-04 Westerman (R) 47, Lee Witt (D) 29, Undecided 18 On Message (R) [MOE ±4.9] 8/21 FL-02 Graham (D) 45, Southerland (R) 43, Undecided 11 Pathfinder Opinion Research (D) [MOE ±4.4] 8/14

13 IA-01 Murphy (D) 51, Blum (R) 40 Myers Research (D) [MOE ±4.9] 8/20 NE-02 Ashford (D) 46, Terry (R) 45 DCCC (D) [MOE ±4.7] 8/21 WV-02 Mooney (R) 40, Casey (D) 28, Undecided 19 Governor Public Opinion Strategies (R) [MOE ±4.9] 8/19 Arkansas Hutchinson (R) 46, Ross (D) 40, Undecided 14 [MOE ±3.0] 8/5 Connecticut Foley (R) 45, Malloy (D) 38 Rasmussen (R) [MOE Florida Scott (R) 41, Crist (D) 41 Cherry Communications [MOE 8/21 8/18 Georgia Carter (D) 44, Deal (R) 40, Undecided 12 Landmark (R) [MOE 8/21 Iowa Brandstad (R) 50, Hatch (D) 37, Undecided 13 [MOE ±3.2] 8/26 Branstad (R) 52, Hatch (D) 32 Rasmussen (R) [MOE 8/17 Kansas Davis (D) 39, Brownback (R) 37, Undecided 15 [MOE ±3.3] 8/19 Davis (D) 51, Brownback (R) 41, Undecided 5 Rasmussen (R) [MOE 8/12 Massachusetts Coakley (D) 42, Baker (R) 31, Undecided 21 Boston Globe [MOE 8/11 Michigan Snyder (R) 47, Schauer (D) 42 Mitchell Research [MOE ±5.0] 8/7 Minnesota Dayton (D) 49, Johnson (R) 40, Undecided 5 New Mexico Martinez (R) 50, King (D) 41, Undecided 9 SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [MOE ±4.1] Albuquerque Journal [MOE 8/25 8/17

14 New York Cuomo (D) 56, Astorino (R) 28, Undecided 13 Quinnipiac [MOE ±3.1] 8/20 Cuomo (D) 58, Astorino (R) 26, Undecided 9 Siena College [MOE ±3.3] 8/11 Oklahoma Fallin (R) 44, Dorman (D) 31, Undecided 22 Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R) [MOE ±4.3] 8/4 Wisconsin Walker (R) 47, Burke (D) 47 Gravis Marketing (R) 8/4 Ad of the Week Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) is running in a difficult race against U.S. Representative Tom Cotton (R-AR) in one of the key races that will determine which party controls the Senate next year. Rather than backing down from an issue that has been a major Republican talking point, Obamacare, Pryor has embraced the law to a certain extent in his most recent ad where he appears with his father, former Governor and Senator David Pryor. The 30-second spot features Pryor speaking about his diagnosis of cancer and his father noting that insurance companies refused to cover his son with the diagnosis. The ad does not mention the Affordable Care Act by name. Watch the ad here and let us know if you think other Democrats will embrace the strategy moving forward.