Election Wrap up. Ballot Issues Tuesday, November 13, Toni Larson, Ph.D.

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1 Election Wrap up Ballot Issues Tuesday, November 13, 2018 Toni Larson, Ph.D.

2 Question What surprised you this election? What did you expect to happen that didn t or did happen? Why did you think what you did?

3 Voting Numbers (as of 11/09/18) Female Gender/Age DEM LBR REP UAF Grand Total FEMALE ,255 1,568 20,459 46, , ,257 4,276 62, , , ,935 2, , , , , ,039 64, , AND OVER 73, ,930 40, ,359 FEMALE Total 502,483 9, , ,048 1,328,824

4 Voting Numbers (as of 11/09/18) Male Gender/Age DEM LBR REP UAF Grand Total MALE ,349 2,036 24,211 44,001 97, ,334 7,597 67, , , ,445 5, , , , ,076 1,269 87,026 72, , AND OVER 48, ,530 42, ,820 MALE Total 334,788 16, , ,605 1,217,107

5 Comparisons - Voting Patterns DEM LBR REP UAF Total FEMALE Total 502,483 9, , ,048 1,328,824 MALE Total 334,788 16, , ,605 1,217,107 Grand Total 848,493 26, , ,066 2,578,358 Total Registered Voters as of 11/01/18 = 3,977,491

6 Women in the Colorado legislature House = 18 Dems; 9 Reps = 27 out of 65 Senate = 8 Dems; 2 Reps; 1 other = 11 out of 35 Total = 38 out of 100 = 38% Arizona, 40%; Vermont, 40% More women represent the Democratic Party than the Republican party US: 1,148 Dems to 705 Reps to 9 Third Party and 13 nonpartisan (Nebraska).

7 Question A Changing State In 2004, Republicans had 1.1 million registered voters to the Democrats 940,000-plus. The Colorado Secretary of State s Office shows Democrats now have a 1,007,948 to 979,204 edge over the GOP in registered voters as of Oct. 1 (The Denver Post, Sunday, November 4, 2018). Is Colorado now a blue state or is it a swing state?

8 Question Trifecta Colorado s government is now controlled by Democrats with both houses of the legislature and the governor s office dominated by Dems. What is your opinion of government being totally controlled by one party or another? Is this good for policy making? Is it good for a system of checks and balances? What does it mean for the relationship between the parties?

9 Candidate Committee Candidates own committee Political Action Committee (PAC) Campaign Finance Committees Not necessarily authorized by the candidate Small Donor Committee $50 donations from natural citizens; committees can make larger contributions to candidates

10 Campaign Finance Committees 501(c)(4) These are not the charity organizations we general think of Unlimited donations from individuals, corporations, businesses Can form and donate to own PAC and SuperPAC Can donate to independent committees Independent Expenditure Committee/Super PACs Independent of candidate Issue Committee For or against ballot issues

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14 Resources Follow the Message: [Tracks the messenger and money behind the political ads in Co] Center for Responsive Politics: OpenSecrets.Org [Congressional, state, dark money] Colorado Secretary of State: TRACER [All statewide, county races, ballot initiatives, independent expenditures raw data]

15 Referred Measures Constitutional (Need 55% to pass Amendment 71) Amendment V Lower Age Requirement for Members of State Legislature F Amendment W Election Ballot Format for Judicial Retention Elections F Amendment X Industrial Hemp Definition P Amendment Y Congressional Redistricting P Amendment Z Legislative Redistricting P Amendment A Prohibit Slavery & Involuntary Servitude P 65.58

16 Initiated Measures Amendment 73 Funding for Public Schools (55%) F Amendment 74 Just Compensation for Fair Market Value (55%) F Amendment 75 Campaign Contribution (55%) F Proposition 109 Authorize Bonds for Transportation Projects F Proposition 110 Transportation Funding (Sales Tax) F Proposition 111 Limitation on PayDay Loans P Proposition 112 Setback Requirements Oil and Gas Development F 44.14

17 Question Why did these fail? Transportation funding (109 and 110) Oil and gas (74 and 112) School funding (73)

18 Question Except for changing the age to serve in the state legislature from 25 to 21 and changing the voting format for judges, the rest of the referred measures passed. Except for limiting the interest rate for payday loans, all initiated measures failed. What contributed to the lost of almost all initiated proposals and what contributed to the win of most referred proposals? What does this tell us besides the obvious? Does the electorate trust the legislature more than their fellow citizens? Do citizens propose a different type of issue to be voted on from those referred by the legislature?

19 Question Which of the ballot measures would you expect to see introduced in the 2019 session of the state legislature? How do you think the Democrats, in particular, will handle these issues? What role can the Republicans play? School Funding Transportation Oil and Gas Campaign Finance

20 2019 School Funding HB , New School Distribution Funding Formula (PI d) Last formula change 1994 Promoted by school superintendents Problems addressing Rural districts Schools constitutionally underfunded ($1 billion) Special needs, at-risk ill served More equitable way to distribute school funds Size Poverty English learners Gifted Special education Cost of living Hold harmless

21 2019 Transportation Another ballot issue a year from now SB18-001, Transportation Infrastructure Funding (P) Ready to go $9 billion gap $2.3 billion bonding Supplants some money, net amount $840 million 109 and 110 lost by considerable percentages Belt tightening or taxes? Roads/bridges or also multimodal?

22 2019 Oil and Gas More local government control Balance interests Oil/gas and environment/communities Rocky Flats

23 2019 Ballot Proposals Two severance tax proposals 19 State fiscal policy proposals Gallagher Amendment Interim Committee Repeal/regional assessment rates Backfill Property Tax Loss to Certain Special Districts

24 Question What would you like to discuss? Thanks for being in the class and voting!