Urbanizing China. A reflective dialogue. 11.S945, MW9:30-11:00, Professor: Jinhua Zhao, TA: Liyan Xu

Transcription

1 Urbanizing China A reflective dialogue 11.S945, MW9:30-11:00, Professor: Jinhua Zhao, TA: Liyan Xu

2 Managing Cars in China

3 Four Cases Bidding to Drive: Shanghai Auction Superficial Fairness: Beijing's Lottery Price as a Policy Signal: Gauging the Public Purposeful Policy Leakage: Non Local Vehicles 3

4 Question Are these patterns also true to other domains? housing, education, energy, environment, health,... Please offer examples.

5 Overall Acceptance 35" Frequency)(%) 30" 25" 20" 15" 10" 5" 0" 43% negative 30% neutral 27% positive '2" '1.5" '1" '0.5" 0" 0.5" 1" 1.5" 2" Fully unacceptable Fully acceptable 5

6 Core policy drivers Strongly Positive 2.0% Effect Affordability Equity 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%!0.5%!1.0% Effectiveness% Affordability% Private% vehicle% auctions% Government% vehicles% Comparison% with%other% cities% Transparency% in%revenue% usage%!1.5%!2.0% Strongly Negative 6

7 Car Owners (18%) vs. Non-Car Owners (72%) Shanghai License (80%) vs. Non-local License (20%) Perception(on(government( vehicles( Transparency(on(revenue( usage( Acceptance(!2#!1.5#!1#!0.5# 0# 0.5# 1# 1.5# 2# Acceptance(Change( Effectiveness( Equity(compare(to(other( cities( Affordability( Equity(in(auction( 7

8 3.1.1 Rich vs. Poor Current & future car buyers Prior vs. New Prior car buyers CAR OWNERS Revenue Transfer Resource redistribution Space Inner vs. Outer City NON- CAR OWNERS Future car owners LOCAL MIGRANT PRIVATE Local vs. Migrant Different social class Government Vehicles PUBLIC LOOPHOLES Corruption Information Asymmertry 8

9 Shadow Price of Beijing license 9

10 Policy making in China is Easier? Fewer regulatory constraints Stronger government power Richer resources Elite-driven Authoritarian decision making Lack of public participation Straightforward One-directional? 10

11 Do governments gauge the public opinions? Lack of mechanism Formal public participation Consequences Implicitly gauging public opinion No feedback / ignore feedback Over react Drama 11

12 Mechanism of Quota Decision Making Quota (t) = RoadArea Quota (t-1) Price (t-1) + Supply à Quota à Price Bidding Price as a Signal for Policy Adjustment 12

13 Beijing s Lottery Policy Effectiveness: Extraordinary Efficiency: Disaster Equity: Superficial 13

14 Purposeful Policy Leakage Legitimacy and Intentionality of Non-Local Vehicles

15 Consequences of leakage Effectiveness Revenue Traffic management Fairness Trustworthiness of government 15

16 Effectiveness VS. Openness Congestion Management Shanghai as a global center 16

17 City State vs. City in a Region Singapore Shanghai No domestic car industry Car as pillar industry City-state Closed system with no nonlocal vehicle problems City of region Open city allowing non-local vehicles entering 17

18 Government Response: Timeline 18

19 Legitimacy and Intentionality Government Public Legitimacy Mixed signals Choice to restrict but not completely ban confers implicit legality NLL seen as reasonable reaction to policy But inconvenient and lower status Intentionality Intentional in general Unintentional on specifics Maintain current choice Potentially more NLL 19

20 Shanghai s Policy on Non Local Vehicles Reserved, Gradual and Strategic

21 Four Cases Bidding to Drive: Shanghai Auction Superficial Fairness: Beijing's Lottery Price as a Policy Signal: Gauging the Public Purposeful Policy Leakage: Non Local Vehicles 21

22 China s Transportation Policy Making

23 1. Cocktails of state + market combinations 23

24 Embracing the market? Shanghai Beijing Long term policy intervention From early stage motorization Late + Sudden Intervention strength (1994) Strong (2008,2011) Strong Maximum quota Yes Yes Allocation mode Auction Lottery Allocation mechanism Price based bidding Time based queuing Efficiency and equity More efficiency More equity Consequences Less distortion Queuing à Price or Power Financing ability to pay vs. willingness to pay Mixed of both Neither Market and state State + market State only 24

25 2. Tougher tradeoffs 25

26 Tougher tradeoffs Multiple goals: often conflicting Congestion management and city openness Efficiency and equity Interests of different groups Public sentiments and sensible policy choices 26

27 3. Devolution of decision making 27

28 Devolution of decision making Experiments in Shanghai and Beijing Significant Significantly different 600+ Cities: Each Experiments its Own Transportation Policies Tolerance and Encouragement of Diversity and Try and Error Highly centralized politically Highly decentralized economically and administratively 28

29 4. Policy Learning, Transfer and Mobility 29

30 Policy transfer Time License Auction License Lottery Singapore Shanghai Guangzhou Beijing Cities Zhao, J. and Z. Wang (2013) An Interview Based Survey of Transportation Policy Transfers in China, working paper 30

31 Policy Experiment and Transfer Pilot, Evaluate, Codify, Disseminate and Scale up... 31

32 Formation of Transport Policy Market Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Table listing the mechanisms behind the transport policy market. Source: unknown. 32

33 Broader Policy Transfers Singapore à Shanghai Car industry City state vs. city in a region Borrowing from the west Shanghai à Beijing? Bidding vs. lottery Control use vs. control ownership SH+BJ à Guangzhou/Xi an à 3 rd cities Experimenting within China à World? China à other developing countries China à western cities Local context vs. generic human nature Exporting knowledge? 33

34 5. Policy Design ~ Behavioral Response 34

35 Policy Design ~ Behavioral Response Increasingly two-way interactive rather than simply top-down command and control 35

36 Shanghai Embracing market Gauging the public Learning and adjusting Grand but nuanced Regionally collaborative Strategic about leakage More open towards migrants 36

37 Increasing sophistication in China s policy making Subtleties in Bold Design

38 Question Are these patterns also true to other domains? housing, education, energy, environment, health,... Please offer examples.

39 MIT OpenCourseWare 11.S945 Urbanizing China: A Reflective Dialogue Fall 2013 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: