Internet Economics and Politics II: Collaborative Business Models and Collective Decision-making. Spring 2007 April 10
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1 Internet Economics and Politics II: Collaborative Business Models and Collective Decision-making Spring 2007 April 10
2 Today Individuals vs. crowds Economic production Politics and governance Collective action, the Internet and the future of democracy Deliberative democracy vs. markets More on new business models
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4 San Francisco Chronicle Poll
5 Collective Wisdom or Digital Maoism?
6 Collective Wisdom or Digital Maoism? The stupidity of the masses Pop culture Mob behavior Collective wisdom doesn t work when taste and judgment are needed Anonymity Lanier doesn t seem to buy emergence What makes markets work is the marriage of collective and individual intelligence
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8 Collective Wisdom II Deliberation and Markets The role of deliberation and debate in collective decision-making Aggregating dispersed information through markets Cass Sunstein, Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge
9 Jürgen Habermas The public sphere Deliberation as the foundation of effective democracy Rational argument and critical discussion in which the merits of one s argument are more important than one s identity Need engagement of citizens debating the important issues
10 Habermas Collective definition of political will Force of public opinion influences political decisionmaking Recognition of social equity & a lack ideology are key towards effective deliberation Enemies of effective dialogue Commercial mass media Cultural of consumption Corporate capitalism
11 Sunstein on Deliberation Deliberation often does not work Many things that go wrong Cascade effects Tendency to polarize Tendency to follow those with strong opinions - many don t want to risk defying the majority Amplification of errors
12 Condorcet Jury Theory If average participant is right more than half the time, then adding more people will improve the chance of making the right decision If average participant if right less than half the time.
13 How does this apply to: Wikipedia Blogs
14 Deliberative Polling James Fishkin Combine statistical sampling with deliberation. take a statistical microcosm of the public engage in a continuing dialogue with carefully balanced briefing materials, opportunities to interact with experts and decision-makers come to a considered and informed judgment on the issue. The aim...is to provide an informed and representative input from the public on complex issues.
15 Friedrich Hayek Centrally planned economies are inherently inferior to market-based economies Beauty of markets is in aggregating dispersed pieces of information expressed in the form of prices
16 Predictive and Decision Support Markets Iowa Electronic Markets Policy Analysis Market Corporations
17 Iowa Electronic Markets
18 Some examples
19 Policy Analysis Market Information Awareness Office Markets to predict in Middle Eastern countries: Terrorism Coups Instability Economic changes
20 Business Models Proprietary strategies vs crowdsourcing
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24 Decision Support HP product sales Google internal contests for product launch dates and sales Pharmaceutical companies testing results, product launches Arcelor predicting future steel prices
25 Madisonian democracy Balancing the interests of different factions Preventing undue concentration of power and hence tyranny
26 Representative government vs. direct democracy More immediate access to public opinion. e-petitions
27 Transparency & Accountability C-Span via Metavid CA Legislature by Maplight.org TheyWorkForYou.org Moveon.org
28 Democracy & the Internet Good news: If more information is good If greater scrutiny is good Bad news: If it is all about spin If more information is bad If scrutiny diminishes the value of deliberation
29 Joe Nye s list of changes Today brought on by the Internet Reinforces global markets and production strategies that constrain sovereign government action Decreases relative importance of commodities and geography Makes border more porous and jurisdiction less important Source: Governance.com Democracy in the Information Age
30 Today Changes in the banking system that complicate taxation and monetary control Rapid pace of technological change makes it difficult for government institutions to keep up Shorter news cycles = less time for deliberation and response Virtual communities lead to power bases that are independent of geography. [Reduced nationalism?]
31 Today Demise of broadcasting/rise of narrowcasting = fragmentation. - Erosion in the sense of community and legitimacy that supports government. Educational patterns change leading to less deference to age, authority and existing institutions
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