CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES

Transcription

1 CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 3, January 016 KEY MESSAGES 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE POLITICAL SOCIAL 3 ECONOMIC 3. NATIONAL CONTEXT. PAGE REGIONAL UPDATE ON THE INSURGENCY INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO THE JAS INSURGENCY UPDATE ON THE ARMY - SHIITE CLASH IN ZARIA. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES 5 *Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government. ** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.

2 Executive Summary The Nigerian military sustained its attacks on locations and supply networks of the Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS). Despite the successful counter-insurgency initiatives, JAS retained its capability to launch both suicide bomb and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, notably Dalori and Gamori villages in Borno and Goniri Town in Yobe where about 100 persons were killed. Efforts of the Nigerian government to mobilize international support for its counter-insurgency campaigns have yielded pledges of both financial and technical support. The joint patrols by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) have also contributed to sustaining pressure on JAS. The government of Kaduna state has instituted a Judicial Commission of Inquiry to investigate last month's clash between some soldiers of the Nigerian Army and the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (Shiite) in Zaria. However, the objection of the Shiite to the composition of the Commission and the continued detention of Sheikh El-Zakzaky may inhibit progress at the inquiry. Depreciation of the naira and the fall in oil prices continued to affect the economy negatively and impact on livelihoods. There are concerns of growing social dissent as ordinary citizens mobilise to resist increases in taxes and prices of utilities which have become the main strategy of government to cope with falling oil revenues. Context Analysis/Conflict Profile Political The successive resolution of election disputes is contributing to stabilization in various states. However, tensions persisted over competition for and disagreements arising from political appointments at federal, state and local government levels. For instance, in Plateau State, the Anaguta Youth Movement has reacted to alleged marginalisation by the new Lalong administration following the appointment of a nonanaguta Commissioner to represent Jos North LGA in the state executive council. The protest follows a Supreme Court judgement that reportedly upheld the claims of the Anaguta to ownership of Jos North LGA. Similar communal claims have characterised the tussle for the chairmanship post of Jos North LGA. In other states, competition over control of party structures and positioning for 019 elections has resulted in conflicts among major politicians. This has been the case in Kaduna state where the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) has been fractured as a result of conflict between supporters of Governor Nasir El-Rufai and Senator Shehu Sani. Attempts to broker peace between the conflicting parties have so far proved unsuccessful. In Rivers state, tensions have arisen from the rescheduling of elections after the Appeal Courts sacked majority of PDP legislators serving at the state and federal legislatures. The political tussle has manifested in clashes by gangs and militant groups reportedly allied to competing politicians. There are concerns that the involvement of ex-militant groups that were supposed to have disarmed since the commencement of the amnesty programme may lead to the resurgence of militancy in the region. This fear is reinforced by the violence which characterised Bayelsa State governorship elections following the mobilizations of the militant groups to support the competing candidates. The concern about possible resurgence of militancy is based on perception that the security agencies have been reportedly biased in their responses to different militants groups. This has created an impression that the security agencies are targeting specific militant groups. In many states, some of the armed groups used by politicians in the last elections have resorted to using arms acquired in the period to harass the public and perpetrate crime. This is the case in Jos, Plateau State

3 where street gangs known as 'Yan Daba' or 'Sara Suka' have been involved in robbery, rape and drug peddling and abuse and pose serious threat to security. Social The Nigerian military continued to claim it had technically defeated the JAS with reported arrests and killings of insurgents and apprehension of so-called supporters. However, JAS continued to attacks both civilian and military targets. Victims of suspected JAS attacks in the month included Dalori and Gamori villages in Borno and Goniri Town in Yobe. The JAS insurgent group also made a daring attempt to take over the 10 Taskforce Battalion of the Nigeria Army base stationed in Goniri town of Gujba LGA in Yobe state. Many fatalities were recorded as the military mobilised to stop the advance of the insurgents. Following delays in military advancement to the stronghold of the JAS, local hunters and the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) continued to clamour to be allowed to join the military to sack the insurgents from Sambisa Forest where they are believed to be holding out. While the role of the vigilantes in counterinsurgency operations is appreciated among the military and civilian population, there is growing concern about the excesses of some members of the CJTF and vigilante groups. During the month, there were reports of rising incidents of clashes between IDPs and CJTF in IDP camps in Borno State. One of such clashes in Shettima Ali Monguno Village camp resulted in the death of a man. The clashes have been attributed to allegations of involvement of the vigilantes in extortion, sexual and gender based violence and human rights violations. Another source of tension in IDP camps in the North was the reported rising number of cases of arranged illegal marriages contracted in the camps as displaced persons struggled to cope with their plight. There are concerns that the development will affect reintegration of families as government steps up plans to return IDPs to their communities. It is feared that women and girls who become involved in such relationships are likely to face rejection when they return to their communities and find that their spouses and parents they have been separated from are still alive. The fate of Chibok girls remained unknown as parents, families and campaigners continued to pressure government to bring back the girls. In furtherance of the commitment of President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure the girls are safely returned to their families, the National Security Adviser has set up a panel of investigation on the abduction of the girls. There were reports of rising crime in states. For instance, rising cases of armed robbery, murder, cattle theft and car theft were reported in Kano despite amnesty offer of the state government to criminals. In Kaduna, there were reported cases of highway robbery especially along Birnin Gwari to Kaduna road, Kaduna to Jos road and Kaduna to Abuja road. Cult related killings, kidnapping for ransom and piracy remained the major threats to security in the Niger Delta. Inter-communal conflict persisted in some states, notably Kano, Rivers and Plateau. A violent clash between residents of Magami and Sansani villages in Sumaila LGA of Kano state resulted in killing of two persons and serious injuries to survivors. The communal conflicts have led to displacement of communities as populations flee for safety. In Rivers State, a conflict between Abuloma and Okuru in the Port Harcourt LGA has threatened populations in the communities. The outbreak of Lassa fever in Nigeria is causing concerns across the country. Between August 015 and January 016, 159 suspected cases of Lassa fever have been recorded by the World Health Organisation (WHO) across 19 states with over 80 confirmed deaths. Government has embarked on sensitization campaigns to help contain the spread of the disease. 3

4 Economic The persistent fall in value of the naira and the price of crude oil in the international market negatively affected economic activities and livelihoods of Nigerians. The resultant decline in revenue has also meant a decline in revenue accruing to the federal and state governments with visible effects on governance. The fall in oil prices have forced governments to seek alternative sources of revenues. The resort to using taxes to cover revenue gaps is generating social tensions as citizens are mobilizing to resist hike in taxes and its attendant burden. For instance, Kano residents have opposed the proposed hike in taxes, the recruitment of a private consultancy firm to collect taxes and proposed introduction of a health insurance which will lead to further depletion of personal incomes. In a climate of rising price of commodities and irregular salaries, workers have accused the government of insensitivity in allegedly taking unilateral decision on matters affecting their well-being without consultation. Insecurity also affected the economy. In Yobe state, the economic downturn has been compounded by last month's closure of markets to forestall insurgency-related attacks. Traders who have been forced to conduct their business outside and around the market premises continue to experience low patronage. In Kaduna state, the commencement of the free meal programme in,5 Primary Schools has been applauded as it has reportedly contributed to improvement of the livelihoods of residents following the recruitment of 10,000 women as food vendors for the schools. National Context Regional Update on the Insurgency: There were reports of joint patrols by the MNJTF. However, challenges of coordination persisted resulting in suspected cases of friendly fire. For instance, Cameroonian troops in pursuit of JAS insurgents are reported to have fired rocket-propelled grenades indiscriminately resulting in the death of a family of four. The troops are also alleged to have shot and killed two other civilians in Ashigashiya border village in Gwoza LGA. There are rising reports of Cameroonian military killing scores of Nigerian civilians and razing villages in an attempt to create a 'no-go' zone along the border. Villagers report being trapped consistently between hostile Cameroonian troops and locations of JAS operation. Cameroon's government has repeatedly denied these charges, which may undermine their diplomatic relations with Nigeria. International Response to the JAS Insurgency In fulfilment of its earlier promise to assist Nigeria in the fight against JAS insurgents, the United States donated mine-resistant and armour-protected vehicles valued at $11m to the Nigerian Army. The United Kingdom has also deployed 35 military personnel drawn from the Second Battalion of the Royal Anglian Regiment, to provide infantry training for Nigerian soldiers for effective combat with JAS insurgents. The United Nations Emergency Fund pledged $31 million to the four Lake Chad Basin countries (Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon) to manage the humanitarian crisis arising from the displacement of.7 million persons due to the JAS insurgency. This aid is ear-marked for food, drinking water, shelter, healthcare, protection and education in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Update on Army Shiite Clash in Zaria The Kaduna State Government has constituted a 13 person Judicial Commission of Inquiry to investigate the clash between the Nigerian Army and the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (Shiite Sect). The Commission whose members were drawn from a number of the Northern State was inaugurated late January and charged to submit its report six weeks following its first hearing. However, the Islamic Movement of Nigeria has raised its objection to appearing before the Commission while their leader Sheikh El-zakzaky remains in detention. The group has also objected to the composition of the Commission alleging bias on the part of some Commission members who they claim have made public utterances against the Shiite sect.

5 Concerns arising from the rumoured ill-health and death of Sheikh El-zakzaky after he was flown to France for treatment have been allayed by media reports that the leader had returned to Abuja and was in a stable condition. The public concern arose from the escalation of the insurgency in the North East after the death of Muhammed Yusuf, the JAS leader in Police detention. Implications for Programming Implication and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast Programmes focused on military cooperation and security sector reform may consider influencing adoption of a more coherent and less-provocative Nigerian military communications strategy as the messaging around the victories over the insurgents appears counterproductive to overall peace and security. Programmes focused on peacebuilding and reconciliation may consider the impact of the small scale conflicts between IDPs and CJTF as these incidences may disrupt social cohesion building efforts in the community. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano The discovery of Lassa fever in some states in Kano has created apprehension in the public following reports that the virus has affected over 100 people. This outbreak, quickly following the successful tackling of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, has raised concerns over the status of the overall health and sanitation in the region. For programmes working on health care, nutrition and sanitation, it is essential that up-to-date context analysis be conducted around project implementation sites to ensure that any potential backlash from the current negativity around the Lassa fever outbreak does not adversely impact programme implementation and vice versa. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt Renewed clashes between street gangs known as 'Yan Daba' and 'Sara Suka' in Jos who helped competing parties to manipulate the elections, pose a grave threat to peace and security. The threat of these groups to public security is evident in the fact that they are also engaged in illicit activities. Programmes working on governance and security sector reform may need to consider additional programming focused on youth and gang-related demobilization to address the continued presence of illicit activities in the region. The decision of the Plateau state government to retain the current Interim Management Committees (IMC) may alienate particular interest and political groups. For governance programmes, it is important to consider negative reactions to the continued delay of local government elections and support the state government and interest groups to work towards restoration of democratic local governments in the state. It is recommended that governance programmes should promote restoration of popularly elected local governments. The rising incidents of robbery and kidnapping on Federal highways leading to and out of Kaduna indicates that road travel remains dangerous and precarious. It is recommended that all programmes that are based in Kano or Abuja and are implementing projects in Kaduna, consider adapting road travel patterns to reduce risks related to road travel. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta Following the annulment of the election of some members of the Rivers State House of Assembly and all members of the National Assembly and rescheduling of elections into the seats declared vacant, the APC and PDP have commenced their electioneering campaigns for the upcoming re-run. This follows the Bayelsa state gubernatorial supplementary election which was characterized by pre- and post-election violence in many parts of the state, illustrating the continued instability in the Niger Delta region attributable to the presence of small arms and light weapons in the region. 5

6 Rising tensions in the region linked to protests by ex-militants in the Niger Delta as well as supporters of the separatist Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) also continues to pose serious security threats and risks. For programmes working on peace and security and peacebuilding in the region, the continued instability will continue to create challenges for the successful implementation of programmes related to cohesion. It is recommended that all actors in the region continue to address these dynamics with both short-term quick impact projects as well as long-term sustainability-focused initiatives. 6