Presentation on Southeast Asia

Transcription

1 Presentation on Southeast Asia 1

2 Who is this? 2

3 Who is this? 3

4 Who is this? 4

5 Who is this? 5

6 Who is this? 6

7 Geopolitical Themes: Asia 7 7

8 Apex of Japan s WWII Expansion

9 Collapse of US focus and leverage 9

10 Fight for Hegemony in Asia 10

11 Escalating Geo-political Tensions In East China Sea 11

12 What s happening in South China Sea? Spratly Islands 12

13 North Korea 13

14 Possible Trade War between China and US 14

15 China s Growing Inf luence OBOR in SEA Boosts global connectivit y Welcomed by ASEAN Kunming- Singapore Railway 15

16 Overview: Southeast Asia 16 16

17 ASEAN Overview Diverse Young Emerging Middle Class Urbanization Relatively low GDP per Capita Regulatory framewor k 17

18 Big Challenges for ASEAN Education Infrastructure Energy transition Universal healthcare Climate change No meaningful integration Death of TPP Poverty Under and unemployment 18

19 ASEAN and AEC 19 19

20 Comparing ASEAN to the world ASEAN EU US China Japan India Number of member states Populations (millions) Annual population growth (%) GDP (US$ trillion) GDP per capita (US$ thousands) GDP growth (annual %, 2015) , , Source: World Bank 2015; ASEAN

21 ASEAN and the EU are two completely different institutions Mandate ASEAN Strictly intergovernmental EU Supra-national/ intergovernmental Parliament Judicial Political Monetary No parliament No ASEAN law Myriad political systems No plan for monetary union Elected parliament EU law of higher order than national law Democracy a pre-requisite for entry Eurozone/ Single monetary union Economic Enforcement Capacity AEC 2015, 2025 Non-enforceable agreements 300 staff Budget: USD 20 million One common market Enforceable agreements 32,900 staff Budget: USD 344 billion* *2017 figures 21

22 The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is highly ambitious Pillars Key areas 1 A Single market and production base Free flow of goods Free flow of services Free flow of investment Freer flow of capital Free flow of skilled labour Priority integration sectors Food, Agriculture & Forestry 2 Highly competitive economic region Competition Policy Consumer protection Intellectual Property Rights Transport Energy Mineral ICT Taxation E- commerce 22

23 EU Economic Diplomacy Bilateral FTAs High FDI Regional FTA? 23 23

24 The Philippines 24 24

25 Factors for Diplomacy Duterte the Mayor Siloed Agencies Institutional inertia Political Factions 25

26 Factors for Diplomacy Shifting personnel Emerging clamour for competition Looming proinvestment reforms 26

27 Myanmar 27 27

28 Myanmar Triple transition 28

29 Opportunities and Challenges R akhine crisis Crackdown on journalists Military Influence in Politics SEZs Increase FDI Infrastructure Education, skills development 29

30 Indonesia 30 30

31 Political Developments Rise of religious extremism post- Ahok Reformasi President Balancing reform agenda with power consolidation 31

32 2019 Elections 2018 Local Elections Balancing nationalism vs. FDI Changing political dynamics Suharto era: top-down Post-Suharto era: bottom up 32

33 Opportunities and Challenges 35 gigawatt power program Education and skills development Corruption Protectionism; regulatory uncertaint y Palm oil 33

34 Singapore 34 34

35 Socio-Political Developments General Elections 2019 Reserved Presidency 2017 Leadership succession a focus ASEAN Chair

36 Economic Developments Slower growth Future Economy Regional hub Smart Nation GLCs looking out 36

37 Singapore s ASEAN Chairmanship, 2018 Security Cybersecurity Transnational Crime Terrorism Economic Integration AEC Digital Economy Smart Cities Network E-Commerce 37

38 Thailand 38 38

39 Political Developments New Constitution Junta for the long haul End of mourning period Restricted political activity Elections: late 2018? 39

40 Opportunities & Challenges Slow economic growth Aggressive FDI courting Hi-tech industries Thailand

41 Malaysia 41 41

42 Political developments Najib s position secured New Opposition Coalition General Election

43 Economic Focus E-commerce Roadmap 2016 Alibaba s Digital Free Trade zone High Value Infrastruct ure 43

44 Vietnam 44 44

45 Overview Former PM Dzung ousted Dominant role of Party Former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong More conservative leadership Corruption crackdown US & China relations 45

46 Opportunities and Challenges Strong GDP growth Slow reform to continue Ambitious trade commitments SOE privatization Fears of competition Education Skilled labor 46

47 Cambodia 47 47

48 Overview Crackdown on opposition 2017 commune, 2018 national elections Industrial Development Policy Garment Industry Rise of SEZs 48

49 49