Flavours of Democracy I: Delegative Democracy in Latin America
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1 Flavours of Democracy I: Delegative Democracy in Latin America Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Different types of democracy? So far, discussion largely dominated by American research Based on a program founded in the 1950s/60s Deficits spotted so far Direct participation New means of (electronic) communication Focus on ultra-short scales/items (few general principles) What do people mean by Democracy? But: are there different (but equally democratic) concepts of Democracy? (Applicable to countries outside the OECD world?) Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (1/15)
2 Democracy in Latin America For decades/centuries, highly problematic Colonial legacy Pre-industrial societies Vast economic, social, cultural gaps between ethnic groups Very small middle classes Land/factory owning strata not interested in democratisation/redistribution 19th century interpretation of liberalism/liberal democracy US intervention(s) and interests Cold war/allegedly communist regimes Economic interests (fruit, Panama, oil, raw materials) War against drugs International trade links often not conducive to democratisation But: situation massively improving over last 20 years Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (2/15) Democracy in Latin America: 2002 vs 2011 Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (3/15)
3 Delegative Democracy Coined by Guillermo O Donnell (1994) Main idea: New subtype in emerging/unstable democracies Stuck in the middle: No imminent threat of authoritarian regression But also no advances towards institutionalised representativeness A type of ultra-presidentialism President elected authorised to govern as he sees fit Embodiment of the nation Based on movement Highly individualised, emotional campaigns (Actually, not so new: populism, majoritarian rule) Strong bureaucratic/technocratic undertones Congress, judiciary, interest groups, media free to complain But lack of effective horizontal accountability/control Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (4/15) Delegative democratic attitudes O Donnell: Walker: DD a highly problematic borderline case A regime type Measure DD attitudes At the individual level Some sort of third way between liberal and authoritarian attitudes Favours unrestrained presidential power Different evaluation of judiciary and legislature Prevalent in Latin America? Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (5/15)
4 General expectation Four categories of citizens: 1. Democrats 1.1 Liberals 1.2 People with DD attitudes 2. Non-Democrats 2.1 Authoritarians 2.2 Ambivalents Only relevant in developing/consolidating democracies People with DD attitudes (PDD) more likely to support institutions Because they are democrats (vs authoritarians) Because they are less likely to scrutinise them (vs liberals) Evaluation of institutions affected by evaluation of the president Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (6/15) Core hypotheses 1. PDD support institutions more than any other group 2. Support for president positively related to support for judiciary/legislature for all democrats 3. Controlling for presidential support, PDDs show more support for judiciary/legislature than liberals 4. Controlling for presidential support, PDDs show more support for judiciary/legislature than authoritarians 5. Controlling for presidential support, PDDs show more support for judiciary/legislature than ambivalents/nonrespondents 6. Link between support for president/judiciary/legislature weaker for persons with greater political knowledge H3-5 are really just specifications of H1? Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (7/15)
5 Countries and Data Countries: Most Similar Systems Design Common history and structure Unitary government, unicameral parliament Presidents with strong executive and weak legislative powers Costa Rica: largely peaceful and stable democracy since 1948 El Salvador: authoritarian/civil war; electoral democracy since early 1990s Nicaragua: dictatorship, Sandinista revolution and American internvention; electoral democracy since early 1990s These countries are not DDs themselves Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (8/15) Data Data: Latinobarometer Growing number of Barometer surveys in different regions of the planet Asia, Africa, Latin America... Not comparable across areas Here: 1000 cases per country Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (9/15)
6 Variables Confidence In three institutions Combined index of Confidence in institutions Institution indispensable for country Trust in individual members/incumbent Standardised on a per-country base Other independent vars Regime preference, party identification Gender, age, education, income Political knowledge, newspaper readership Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (10/15) Model Gamma model to account for skewed distribution of errors Interpretation much like OLS, but: signs Two parallel models (legislative/judiciary confidence) Depending on regime preference, confidence in president, controls, interaction knowledge confidence in president Separate estimation of two models per each of three countries Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (11/15)
7 Figure 1 Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (12/15) Distribution, H1, H2, H6 Total number of PDDs very small PDDs have display highest confidence in legislative/judiciary, even controlling for presidential support (H1) (not in stable Costa Rica) Confidence in the president positively correlated with support for other institutions (H2) Effect is weaker amongst more knowledgeable/attentive citizens in Costa Rica and Nicaragua But not in El Salvador (careful: significance of interaction terms) Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (13/15)
8 H3-H5n PDDs show more support than liberals (H3) Basically, they are the most supportive of all (H4-H6) Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (14/15) Summary Summary/class questions Summarise, in your own words, the main findings from this study Why are you unhappy with this research? What are the main problems? What could be done to improve on this study? Measurement and Theory of Democratic Attitudes Flavours of Democracy I (15/15)
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