Population Issues. An Interdisciplinary Focus

Transcription

1 Population Issues An Interdisciplinary Focus

2 The Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Series Editor: Kenneth C. Land, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina ADVANCED TECHNIQUES OF POPULATION ANALYSIS Shiva S. Halli and K. Vaninadhu Rao CONTINUITIES IN SOCIOLOGICAL HUMAN ECOLOGY Edited by Michael Micklin and Dudley L. Poston, Jr. CURBING POPULATION GROWTH: An Insider's Perspective on the Population Movement Oscar Harkavy THE DEMOGRAPHY OF HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE Louis G. Pol and Richard K. Thomas FORMAL DEMOGRAPHY David P. Smith HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION IN LATIN AMERICA Susan M. De Vos HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHY AND HOUSEHOLD MODELING Edited by Evert van Imhoff, Anton Kuijsten, Pieter Hooimeijer, and Leo 1. G. van Wissen MODELING MULTIGROUP POPULATIONS Robert Schoen POPULATION ISSUES: An Interdisplinary Focus Edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl L. Dykstra THE POPULATION OF MODERN CHINA Edited by Dudley L. Poston, Jr., and David Yaukey A PRIMER OF POPULATION DYNAMICS Krishnan Namboodiri A Continuation Order Plan is available for tbis series. A continuation order will bring delivery of each new volume immediately upon publication. Volumes are billed only upon actual shipment. For further information please contact tbe publisher.

3 Population Issues An Interdisciplinary Focus Edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl A. Dykstra Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute The Hague, Netherlands Springer Science+Business Media, LLe

4 ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by K1uwer Academic I PIenum Publishers in 1999 Softcover repriot ofth. hardcover lst edition 1999 AII rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher

5 CONTRIBUTORS PearlA. Dykstra. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.o. Box 11650,2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands Pieter Hooimeijer Urban Research Centre Utrecht (URU), P.o. Box 80115,3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands Anton Kuijsten Amsterdam Study Centre for the Metropolitan Environment (AME), University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130,1018 VZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands Anton E. Kunst. Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.o. Box 1738,3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands Aart C. Liefbroer Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.o. Box 11650,2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands lohan P. Mackenbach Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands Clara H. Mulder. Urban Research Centre Utrecht (URU), P.o. Box 80115,3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands Anton Oskamp Urban Research Centre Utrecht (URU), University of Utrecht, P.o. Box 80115,3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands Hendrik P. van Dalen. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.o. Box 11650,2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands, and Erasmus University of Rotterdam, Research Center for Economic Policy and Tinbergen Institute, P.O. Box 1738,3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands v

6 vi CONTRIBUTORS Leo 1. G. van Wissen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.o. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands Barrie A.A. Verbon Tilburg University, Department of Economics and CentER, P.o. Box 90153,5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands Frans 1. Willekens Population Research Centre (PRe), University of Groningen, P.o. Box 800,9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands Judith H. Wolleswinkel-van den Bosch. Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.o. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands

7 PREFACE This volume marks the end of an eight-year program of research on population issues, launched in 1990 by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research: The NWO Priority Program on Population Issues. Initiatives for this program of research were taken over ten years ago by Hans Van Ginkel- who became the first program chair - and Dirk Van De Kaa. The Dutch community of population scientists is deeply indebted to them for their early efforts. At the time, the program carried the name "Between Individual Development and Social Solidarity: Population and Society in a Period of Transition." The goals of the Priority Program were threefold: To reduce the fragmentation of research on population issues; to increase collaboration among population researchers with different disciplinary backgrounds; and to strengthen the position of population studies in Dutch academe and in international forums. Looking back over eight years of programed research, we can safely say that the Priority Program has given an enormous impetus to population research in the Netherlands - as this volume attests. This program of research could not have been carried out successfully without the valuable contributions and constructive input of a large group of scientists. The scope and the focus of the Priority Program were defined by a preparatory committee chaired by Gerard Frinking. Other members of the committee were Frans Dieleman, Jenny Gierveld, Johan Mackenbach, Bernard van Praag, and Ad van der Woude - all of whom continued to invest time and energy in the program of research once it had been effectuated - while Cock Hazeu of NWO served as the executive secretary of the preparatory committee. Others who served the Priority Program in advisory and directing capacities were Salomon Cohen, Hendrik van Dalen, Henk de Feijter, Tineke Fokkema, Kene Henkens, Pieter Hooimeijer, Evert van Imhoff, Bert van der Knaap, Anton Kuijsten, Aart Liefbroer, Clara Mulder, Nico van Nimwegen, Harrie Verbon, Ad Vossen, and Frans Willekens. We would like to acknowledge their efforts in helping to make the program a success. Of course, heartfelt recognition should be given to the over thirty Vll

8 viii PREFACE researchers - PhD candidates, postdocs, and senior researchers - who actually made the program work; they collected data, performed the analyses, and wrote the reports. In short, they were our "ambassadors" in the field. Last, but not least, we - as executive secretaries of the Priority Program - would like to express our sincere appreciation for our trustworthy personal liaisons at NWO: Paul Berendsen, and his successor Harm Prins. Writing the chapters for this volume was part of the planned research activities of the Priority Program. The aim was to view and evaluate the results from an international perspective by comparing and contrasting Dutch trends with population changes observed elsewhere, and by assessing the Priority Program's accomplishments in terms of its contributions to the scientific literature. As a consequence, the chapters do not offer simple summaries of research conducted in the context of the Priority Program. Rather, they provide thoughtful reflections on empirical and conceptual developments in population studies both in the Netherlands and elsewhere. To foster consistency and conceptual agreement and integration across chapters, two one-day workshops were held with all the contributors to the volume. Outlines were discussed and revised at the first workshop, which was held in the spring 1998, while draft papers were commented upon at the second, in the fall These meetings proved to be crucial to reaching coherence in the conceptual framework used throughout the chapters - the life course perspective. They also enabled us to avoid overlap and achieve correspondence between chapters. In completing the manuscript for publication, we received help from many sources. We consider ourselves extremely fortunate to have been able to call upon Willemien Kneppelhout and her colleagues Ginger van Hasselt and Anne Mark for English-language editing. They rendered their services at short notice, often outside regular office hours, and with the greatest care and precision. We deeply respect and admire their creative reconstructions of grammatically correct but not overly elegant sentences. A final word of thanks goes to the secretarial staff at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute - in particular to Tonny Nieuwstraten, Elly Huzen, and Jacqueline van der Helm - for their assistance in converting the manuscript into a form suitable for submission to the publisher. Editing this book has been a truly collaborative enterprise. We should point out that the order of our names does not reflect a division of labor or of responsibilities. In fact, we decided to use the reverse alphabetical order. More important, however, is that our editorial work

9 PREFACE IX has been an interdisciplinary exercise in its own right. With Van Wissen's devotion to formal demography, and Dykstra's immersion in sociology, there have been many intensive, instructive, and enjoyable discussions about what each of us saw - coming from our respective disciplines - as the merits, insights, and weaknesses of each of the chapters.

10 CONTENTS 1. Introduction: The Life Course Approach as an Interdisciplinary Framework for Population Studies PEARL A. DYKSTRA and LEO J.G. VAN WISSEN Demography as an "Object" Science.... The Life Course Approach.... Inherent Interdisciplinary.... The Life Course as a Promising Approach for Population Studies.... Overview of Chapters The Life Course: Models and Analysis FRANS J. WILLEKENS Introduction.... The Life Course: A Paradigm Shift.... From Structure to Process.... From Macro to Micro.... From Analysis to Synthesis.... From Certainty to Uncertainty.... Anatomy of the Life Course.... Attributes and Event Types.... Time and Risk.... Interdependencies in the Life Course.... Life Histories Analysis: Variables, Data and Models.... Focus: States Occupied.... Focus: Events.... Conclusion.... xi

11 xii CONTENTS 3. From Youth to Adulthood: Understanding Changing Patterns of Family Formation from a Life Course Perspective AART C. LIEFBROER Introduction.... Changes in Family-Life Transitions: The Dutch Case.... Leaving the Parental Home.... Union Formation.... Parenthood.... Patterns and Sequences in Young Adulthood. ".... Family Formation Trends in a European Perspective.... Major Recent Developments in Studies on the Transition from Youth to Adulthood.... Societal Changes Influencing the Transition from Youth to Adulthood.... Changes in the Economic and Social Structure.... Cultural Changes.... Technological Innovations.... Dynamic Studies of the Individual-Level Determinants of Family-Life Decisions.... The Interplay between Parallel Careers.... Contingency in the Life Course.... Opening the "Black Box": Studies on Individual Decision-Making Process.... Fit between Intentions and Behavior.... "Good Reasons" for Family-Life Decisions.... Strategic Behavior of Young Adults.... Features of the Future: How Will Studies on the Transition from Youth to Adulthood Evolve? Households, Families, and Kin Networks 87 ANTON KUUSTEN 4.1. Introduction Changing Household and Family Structures in Present- Day Europe Average Household Size One-Person Households Household Size Distribution Regional Variation... 98

12 CONTENTS Xlll Living Arrangements of Young Women.... Living Arrangements of the Elderly.... Young Families and the Aging of Fertility.... Changing Kin Networks.... Historical Reconstructions of Kin Networks, Projections of Kin Networks, The "Sandwich Generation".... Social Networks of the Elderly.... Conclusion Work, Savings, and Social Security in a Life Course Perspective HENDRIK P. VAN DALEN and HARRIE A.A. VERBON Introduction.... Transitions in the Labor Market.... The Transition from Education to Work.... Transitions in the Professional Career.... The Transition from Work to Retirement Savings over the Course of a Life Time.... Social Security over the Source of a Life Time.... Sustainability of Social Security.... Willingness to Pay: Insights from a Recent Survey.... Willingness to Pay: Insights from Laboratory Experiments.... Reciprocity between Generations.... Reciprocity within Generations.... Conclusions Residential Relocations in the Life Course CLARA H. MULDER and PIETER HOOIMEIJER Introduction.... A Life Course Theory of Residential Relocations.... Triggers for Moving: Residential Preferences.... The Micro Context: Resources and Restrictions.... The Macro Context: Opportunities and Constraints.... Conclusion: From Theoretical Framework to Empirical Research

13 xiv CONTENTS 6.3. Processes Underlying the Decision to Move Who Moves Under Which Circumstances Household Formation: Leaving the Parental Home Residential Environments Renting and Owning The Consequences of Migration for Labor Market Careers Conclusion Medical Demography in the Netherlands: Recent Advances, Future Challenges ANTON E. KUNST, JUDITH H. WOLLESWINKEL-VAN DEN BOSCH and JOHAN P. MACKENBACH Introduction.... Challenges for Medical Demography.... About Medical Demography.... From Description to Explanation.... From Explanation to Projection.... Studies on Past Trends in Mortality.... Descriptive Studies.... Explanatory Studies.... Studies on Mortality Differentials Between Population Groups.... Marital Status.... Socio-Economic Status.... Place of Residence.... Studies on Future Trends in Mortality.... Studies on Future Trends in Morbidity.... Studies on Consequences for Health Care Demand, Costs and Financing.... Policy Relevance.... Monitoring Population Health and Disease Surveillance.... Prevention of Premature Death and Disease.... Evaluation of the Impact of Health Care Interventions in Population Health.... Administration and Planning of Health Care Services.... Challenges to Future Research.... Description

14 CONTENTS xv Explanation Projection Conclusion Advances in the Microsimulation of Demographic Behavior PIETER HOOIMEIJER and ANTON OSKAMP Introduction.... Theory: Micro Biographies and Macro Structures.... The Life Course as a Unifying Concept.... The Cohort and Structures of Provision.... Criteria for the Functional Design.... Microsimulation Methodology.... The Essence of Microsimulation.... Some Methodological Issues.... State of the Art: Microsimulation Models in the Priority Program.... Three Microsimulation Models.... Functional Design and Technical Solutions.... Conclusion.... Substantive Considerations.... Technical Considerations Epilogue: New Directions in Population Studies LEo IG. VAN WISSEN and PEARL A. DYKSTRA Introduction.... Accomplishments and Challenges.... Theoretical.... Methodological.... The Life Course: A Useful Interdisciplinary Framework Index