BAROMETER of the ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE (BRIE)

Transcription

1 BAROMETER of the ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE (BRIE) Nr 31 RESULTS for NOVEMBER 2012 PRESS SUMMARY Madrid, December 2012

2 TECHNICAL DATA Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla). Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees. Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas to the national population except for Catalonia according to age and gender. The sample specific to Catalonia is proportionate according to age and gender for 400 interviews. Stratification by gender and age Men Women Total Over Total N Weighting Rest of Spain Cataluña Total 1,200 Sample error: ±2.9 for global data (1,200 n); ±4.1 for subsamples (600 n), p = q = 0.5, with a confidence interval of ±5.0% for the Catalan sample. Interview methodology: telephone (interviewee called at home). Survey period: from 6 to 19 November Average duration of interview: 18 minutes. Field work: GAD3 (formerly Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico). 2

3 1. Spain Brand Ambassadors Spaniards have a highly positive opinion of the launch of the Spain Brand initiative, aimed to improve Spain s image abroad: 71% consider it a good idea. The government has launched an initiative known as the Spain Brand in order to improve the country s image abroad. What s your opinion? Graph 1. Very good 10.5 Good 61.1 Neither good nor bad 13.2 Bad 10.3 Very bad 2.3 DK/NA 2.6 Total This BRIE also asked interviewees to give a score from 0 to 10 to a list of personalities, institutions and icons that might project a better image of Spain abroad. Starting with the political sphere, the best-regarded personalities are the members of the Royal Family, followed by the former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe González and the judge Baltasar Garzón. The worst valued are currently active politicians, both government and opposition. I shall read you a list of Spanish personalities and institutions. Please assign them a score from 0 to 10 according to their capacity for projecting a favourable image of Spain abroad. Graph 2. Queen Sofía 7.0 Prince Felipe 6.8 King Juan Carlos I 6.5 Felipe González 5.5 Baltasar Garzón 5.5 Javier Solana 5.2 Jose María Aznar 4.5 Mariano Rajoy 4.2 Josep Antoni Durán i Lleida 4.2 Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba 4.1 In the business world the entrepreneur Amancio Ortega is considerably ahead of the rest, while it is striking that business leaders as a whole are given better scores than the average for politicians. Graph 3. Amancio Ortega 7.5 Florentino Pérez 6.3 Antonio Garrigues 5.8 Koplowitz sisters 5.8 Joan Rosell 5.5 In terms of commercial brands, Zara is clearly in the lead, followed by Repsol, SEAT and Iberdrola. 3

4 Graph 4. ZARA 7.8 Repsol 6.8 SEAT 6.7 Iberdrola 6.7 Iberia 6.6 Telefónica 6.6 Indra 6.5 Freixenet 6.5 Editorial Planeta 6.5 The average for the cultural sphere is higher than for the previous categories. Even so, Montserrat Caballé and Plácido Domingo are well ahead, followed by Mario Vargas Llosa. Graph 5. Montserrat Caballé 8.2 Plácido Domingo 8.2 Mario Vargas Llosa 7.6 Antonio Banderas 7.5 Ferrán Adriá 7.4 Alejandro Sanz 7.3 Pedro Almodóvar 6.9 Penélope Cruz 6.8 Miquel Barceló 6.6 Isabel Coixet 6.4 Spaniards give the highest scores to their sportsmen and women, with the national football side and Rafa Nadal in the lead. Graph 6. Spanish national football team 9 Rafa Nadal 8.9 Pau Gasol 8.6 Olympic synchronised swimming team 8.4 Fernando Alonso 8.3 Real Madrid 7.9 F.C. Barcelona 7.9 Alberto Contador 7.9 As for journalists and opinion-makers, the favourites are the broadcaster Lorenzo Milá, the thinker Eduardo Punset and the cartoonist Forges. Conversely, the political commentator Pilar Rahola and the newspaper editor Pedro J. Ramírez are just above the pass mark. Graph 7. Lorenzo Mila 7.0 Eduardo Punset 6.9 Forges 6.7 Pepa Bueno 6.4 Angels Barceló 6.2 Fernando Savater 6.2 Carlos Herrera 6.2 Ernesto Sáenz de Buruaga 5.8 Pilar Rahola 5.4 Pedro J. Ramírez 5.2 4

5 As regards institutions, NGOs get the highest score, at 6.6, while only cultural foundations and the security and armed forces are above the pass mark. All other political and social institutions fail, to such an extent that both Parliament and government get only half the score of the NGOs. Graph 8. NGOs 6.6 Cultural foundations 5.9 State security forces 5.8 Armed forces 5.8 Judges and the judiciary 4.8 Church 4.5 Autonomous Communities 4.5 Government 4.1 Parliament 3.9 Spaniards believe that the most appropriate icons to project a good image of Spain abroad are Don Quixote, the pilgrimage along St James s Way and the architect Gaudí s cathedral of the Holy Family in Barcelona. Nevertheless, traditional iconography still gets high scores, including Carmen, Joan Miró s sun and the Osborne bull. Graph 9. Don Quixote 8.2 St James s Way to Santiago de Compostela 8.0 Gaudí s Cathedral of the Holy Family in Barcelona 7.9 The Cid 7.3 The Seville April Fair or Feria de Abril 7.1 King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella the Catholic 6.9 The festival of San Fermín in Pamplona 6.9 The Osborne bull 6.7 Joan Miró s sun 6.6 Carmen 6.6 As to cities and geographical locations, the three winners are Madrid, Barcelona and Santiago de Compostela. Graph 10. Madrid 7.6 Barcelona 7.4 Santiago de Compostela 7.4 Canary Islands 7.3 Balearic Islands 7.1 Seville 7 Bilbao 6.7 Valencia 6.6 Zaragoza 6.6 Toledo 6.6 The clear winner among cultural institutions is the Prado Museum, half a point ahead of the Cervantes Institute and, once again, museums such as the Guggenheim and the Thyssen. 5

6 Graph 11. Prado Museum 8.1 Cervantes Institute 7.5 Guggenheim Museum 7.5 Thyssen Museum 7.4 Dalí Museum 7.3 Reina Sofía Museum 7.1 City of the Arts and Sciences of Valencia 7.1 City of Culture of Santiago de Compostela 6.9 Fundación Carolina 6.3 The top 10 ambassadors for the Spain Brand are, according to the scores awarded by those interviewed, the national football team, the two opera singers Plácido Domingo and Montserrat Caballé, and the literary character Don Quixote. Graph 12. A comparison between the overall Spanish results and the specifically Catalan sample shows that the similarities are far greater than the differences. When valuing the Spain Brand s almost 100 icons, the Catalan choices are largely similar to those of all other Spaniards: there are only significant differences, of over 0.5, in one of every three items. It should be borne in mind that among the list a few specifically Catalan elements were introduced as a control, in general non-catalan icons were valued equally well in Catalonia. 6

7 In the cases where there are differences, which account for around 30% of the total, they are mostly attributable to the Catalans giving them a lower score than the rest of Spaniards. The most heavily penalised icons in Catalonia, with a difference of one point or more, are the football team Real Madrid, the Osborne bull advertisement, the newspaper editor Pedro J. Ramírez, the Royal Family, the Conservative politicians Aznar and Rajoy, and the Catholic Monarchs Ferdinand and Isabella. In any case, it should be highlighted that among the 100 icons there was a smaller number of specifically Catalan ones, making it more likely for the category of Spanish non- Catalan icons to have been penalised in Catalonia. As a result, it should be highlighted that in another significant number of cases, 10 out of 30, the discrepancy is because the Catalans in all cases gave a higher score to specifically Catalan icons. For instance, Barcelona and Freixenet received a point and a half more in Catalonia than they did in the rest of Spain. Graph 13. Valuation Differences between Catalonia and the rest of Spain Real Madrid Pedro J.Ramirez, Toro Osborne Royal Family, Aznar, Rajoy, Catholic Monarchs Iglesia National football team, Government, Police, Army, Cid, Madrid F. Savater, E. Sáez de Buruaga Florentino Pérez, Sevilla, Carmen Angels Barceló, Pilar Rahola, Casa Dalí Joan Rosell Ferrán Adriá Barcelona FC Sagrada Familia Freixenet Barcelona 1,5 1 0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 7

8 2. The Paradox of the Catalans Pro-European and Pro-independence Stance According to the BRIE 31 s results, based on an analysis of the responses in the Catalan sample, the Citizens of Catalonia are evenly divided as regards independence for the region, with 43% for and another 43% against. To these should be added the 15% who are still undecided. Are you in favour or against Catalan independence? Graph 14. In favour 42.7 Against 43.4 Indifferent 6.8 DK/NA 7.1 Total BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews. In any case, a majority of Catalans (62%) believe that in the event of independence, the EU should recognise Catalonia as an independent state, while a similar proportion (58%) think the EU should also admit it as a member state. Therefore, the pro-independence stance is also pro-european. If Catalonia becomes independent, should the EU recognise it as an independent state? Graph 15. Yes 62.1 No 27.8 DK/DA 10.1 Total BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews. And do you think the EU should admit an independent Catalonia as a member state? Graph 16. Yes 58.3 No 29.8 DK/DA 11.9 Total BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews. 3. Pessimism about Leaving the Crisis Behind Most Spaniards believe the economic situation has deteriorated further, followed at a certain distance by those who think it remains the same. Only a small minority consider that it has improved. 8

9 Which way do you think the crisis is going? Graph 17. Improving The same Deteriorating DK/NA The vast majority think the first Spanish banking sector bail-out is insufficient to put an end to the crisis. Those who believe it will are such a small minority that they account for even less than those who don t know what to answer. Do you think the first banking sector bail-out will end the crisis? Graph 18. Yes No DK/NA Although not so firmly, most Spaniards (64%) are opposed to requesting a second bail-out. Graph 19 Yesi No DK/NA As regards whether the EU is making any headway against the crisis, Spaniards are perfectly clear that it is at an impasse. Not only is it the opinion of the majority, but almost all have a clear opinion on the matter. Do you have the feeling that the EU is making progress against the crisis or is it at an impasse? Graph 20 Progressing At an impasse DK/NA 9,8 89, Obama gets a Pass but Merkel Fails Spaniards are highly positive about Barack Obama s re-election. What opinion do you have of the US election results? Graph 21 Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad DK/NA 13,6 60,3 14,7 1,5 1 9 The US President is the best-valued international leader in Spain. 9

10 Please give a score from 0 (very bad) to 10 (very good) to each of the following personalities. Graph 22 Barack Obama 6.8 François Hollande 5.8 David Cameron 5.4 Christine Lagarde 5.1 Mario Monti 5.0 José Manuel Durão Barroso 5.0 Angela Merkel 4.8 Herman Van Rompuy 4.8 Vladimir Putin 3.8 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner 3.5 It should be highlighted that after having been for a long time one of the best valued international leaders, Spaniards now give Angela Merkel a fail. Graph 23 It should also be highlighted that Germany is no longer the best rated country in Spain and its score has dropped to the level of Greece. 10

11 Assigning a score from 0 (very negative) to 10 (very positive), what are your feelings towards the following? Graph 24 UK 6.1 Gibraltar 4.9 Germany 5.7 Argentina 5.2 EEUU 6.4 France 6.0 Greece 5.7 Portugal 6.1 Italy 6.1 Iran 4.1 Morocco 4.6 Bolivia Intervention in Syria Spaniards are now divided about military intervention in Syria, while a few months ago a majority were in favour. Do you think the international community should intervene in Syria to depose the current regime and foster a transition to democracy? Graph 25 Yes 35.6 No 32.3 DK/NA 32.1 Total What has not changed is the opposition to Spain s participation in an international mission. Should Spain take part in an international mission to Syria? Graph 26 Yes 22.4 No 49.4 DK/NA 28.3 Total Positive Valuation of the Withdrawal of Troops from Afghanistan Spaniards are in favour of withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan. Only 12% consider it a bad idea, while 60% think it is good to withdraw them. Graph 27 Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad DK/DA

12 The Afghanistan mission is one of the most unpopular involving the Spanish armed forces. Graph 28 12