Meanwhile, in Europe LECTURE 3

Transcription

1 Meanwhile, in Europe LECTURE 3

2 France Will spend two sessions on French politics today and next week Objectives for today: Essentials of French presidential system French electoral rules/mainstream parties How mainstream parties have tried to deal with challenges

3 France Topics covered in today s lecture: Presidential regime characteristics French government structure Majoritarian voting systems Domination by two mainstream parties (1980s-2016) Mainstream left Parti Socialiste Mainstream right RPR/UMP/Républicains

4 Presidential regimes Why am I explaining Presidential regimes to you? Characteristics are too taken for granted By calling attention to characteristics, we: Can better understand strengths and weaknesses of the system (critical citizenship) Can apply this knowledge to understanding/critiquing other presidential regimes (e.g. comparisons with France, Russia)

5 Presidential Systems Distinguishing characteristics: Legislature and executive function independently of each other Also elected separately In most cases, judiciary also has a high level of independence More conflictual than parliamentary systems

6 Presidential Systems Distinguishing characteristics The potential for split government Control of legislature by one party and presidency by another Unlike parliamentary system, President lacks assurance that their policy proposals will pass in legislature

7 Presidential Systems Split government: US example: Under President Clinton: From , Congress controlled by Republican Party Presented some classic cases of the problems with split government Esp. when powerful personalities are at work

8 Presidential Systems Split government Particularly acrimonious relationship between: Clinton (D), and House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) Led to government shutdown in 1995 branches unable to agree on budget

9 Presidential Systems Recruitment Tend to have more, ummm unorthodox choices for Pres than PM Think Carter and Reagan How about Bush (43)? Clinton? Trump? Or someday, Schwarzenegger (if we can JUST change that Constitution ) or The Rock (that s sarcasm you re sensing there )

10 Presidential Systems Recruitment Examples from other states: Hugo Chavez, Venezuela (former) Career military officer and former coup plotter Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil (former) Union leader and occasional congressman Vladimir Putin, Russia (former and current President) former KGB officer, a number of appointed offices in regional and federal government

11 Presidential Systems Recruitment PMs, on the other hand, are long term parliamentarians Fully trained in the job Predictable A similar list for parliamentary representative would be very repetitive All would say member of parliament XX years

12 Presidential Systems Why control of the executive is so important in Pres. systems: Pres is both head of state (symbol of nation) and head of government The Queen and Theresa May rolled into one person! If Pres is too beloved, can wield extreme power over society, govt. For this reason, need horizontal, not just vertical, accountability

13 Presidential Systems A democratic presidential system has vertical accountability Pres. is accountable to: Electorate Media Interest groups Social movements But, these vertical institutions are not on equal footing with Pres.

14 Presidential Systems In addition, need horizontal accountability This refers to Pres. being accountable/ checked by other branches Legislature and courts In the US, this happens as a matter of: Constitutional law Common practice US public s traditional concern with anyone having kinglike powers

15 Presidential Systems France has a presidential system Some refer to it as a super-presidency President imbued with a lot of power New Constitution written in 1958 by Charles de Gaulle Ushered in Fifth Republic (current government structure/constitution)

16 Presidential Systems French presidential system Result of multiple failed attempts at parliamentary system Esp. 3 rd Republic (1871-WWII) and 4 th Republic ( ) Political polarization in parliament led to gridlock, inability to deal with crises (Nazi invasion, Algerian war for independence)

17 France: Political History The 5 th Republic (1958-present) Semi-Presidential hybrid system Strong, independently elected president Bicameral legislature with PM and cabinet Result of efforts of Charles de Gaulle Best way to overcome France s problems with parliamentary system was a strong president

18 France: Government Structure Executive Dual executive President directly elected, separately from Parliament Prime Minister and cabinet chosen by Parliament Due to constitution, President is much more powerful than PM Especially on national security issues

19 French Super-Presidents vs. Others Strange fact: In terms of Constitutionally-derived powers, there is very little difference between the powers of the French president and those of the Russian Why are French presidents more constrained than Putin? They follow democratic norms, and Putin doesn t. i.e. French democracy depends on leaders constraining themselves

20 Current French President and PM Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) Edouard Philippe (Républicain) A strange combination two different parties Voluntarily even more strange Explanation will make more sense during next week s lecture French politics different today than normal

21 Cohabitation Government Dual executive can cause cohabitation government French term for split government with Pres of one party and PM from another 1995/1997 elections Chirac, mainstream right RPR, President Jospin, mainstream left PS, Prime Minister Why this is remarkable President chose PM (constitutional right, honored vote results even when his direct rival became PM) importance of norms

22 Cohabitation Government 1995 (Pres) vs (Assembly) Election Results

23 France: Government Structure Executive Election of the president: Every 5 years (used to be every 7 years) No term limits Popularly elected 2-ballot majoritarian rules Usually results in runoff between a Socialist Party candidate and center right candidate (Republicans) But not in 2017!

24 France: Government Structure Legislative Bicameral National Assembly Elected directly, by district Majoritarian rules means 2-ballot single member district system Senate Indirectly elected by mayors and town councilors

25 France: Government Structure Judiciary 2 parts Constitutional Council 9 members, 9 year nonrenewable terms 3 appointed by president Qualifications: lawyers or experienced law makers Role: judicial review Determines whether legislation passed by Parliament and President is constitutional

26 France: Government Structure Judiciary 2 parts Conseil d Etat (State Council) Hears cases of citizens who argue their rights have been violated by administration Also provides advice on constitutionality and coherence of proposed legislation

27 Electoral System and Political Parties Majoritarian rules, oddly, result in multiparty system Fringe parties keep running because they get some of the vote (but no or few seats) Office of President usually goes to a leader in one of two main parties RPR/UMP/Républicains (mainstream right) Parti Socialiste (mainstream left)

28 Electoral System and Political Parties Majoritiarian rules, cont. One candidate needs to get 50% + 1 votes to win a seat Nearly always requires 2 rounds of voting In France, held two weeks apart Lots of parties/candidates get votes in the 1 st round Only 2 biggest vote-getters in 1 st round move on to 2 nd round

29 Dominant parties (until 2016) Mainstream right Les Républicains Party leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, was President of France until 2012 elections Won 31% of the national vote in first round (2007) In second round, won by 53% (2007) Defeated by PS candidate Hollande in 2012

30 Dominant Parties (until 2016) Mainstream left - PS 2007 PS Presidential candidate: Ségolène Royal Won 25% of the national vote in first round; lost in second to Sarkozy 2012 PS candidate: Francois Hollande Ségolène s former boyfriend! Won 28% in first round, 51.7% in second round

31 Other Parties That Put Forward Presidential Candidates in 2012 Jean-Luc Mélenchon Left Front (11%) Marine Le Pen National Front (17%) François Bayrou MoDem (9%) Eva Joly Ecology/Greens (2%) Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Republic Arise (~2%) Philippe Poutou Anti-Capitalist Party (~1%) Nathalie Arthaud Workers Party (0.56%) Jacques Cheminade Solidarity and Progress Party (0.25%)

32 France s Big Problems bore no resemblance to the previous elections Why? Voters split three ways since 2010: Mainstream left Mainstream right Far right Known by political scientists as the three Frances Voters lost faith in mainstream parties to solve real problems

33 France s Big Problems Remember the challenges European states face: Neoliberal economics/austerity with no real alternative Rise of populism Migrant crisis

34 France s Big Problems Mainstream right response Sarkozy ( ) worked closely with Merkel on austerity plans response to global financial crisis Necessary to prop up the Euro, US Dollar and British Pound Austerity also directed at France, not just at other EU states Sarkozy became associated with hardship of austerity Domestically and internationally

35 France s Big Problems Mainstream left response Holland elected in 2012 on an anti-austerity platform But once in office, mostly continued with austerity Sound familiar? Basically what happened everywhere in Europe Also relatively hawkish in foreign policy Lost legitimacy with people who were looking for an alternative to the mainstream right

36 Biggest problems and parties to solve them 2014 survey unemployment economy immigration security Republicains Parti Socialiste Front National None No opinion

37 Biggest problems and parties to solve them 2016 survey unemployment economy immigration security Republicains Parti Socialiste Front National None No opinion

38 France s Big Problems So, by the time the elections came around, all mainstream parties delegitimized: Mainstream left Parti Socialiste had NO chance of winning In office, therefore most unpopular Mainstream right was tearing apart at the seams Radically different candidates/proposals Opportunities for new parties/fringe/anti-system parties vastly expanded

39 2017 Presidential Election Key Players Macron En Marche! Marine Le Pen Front National François Fillon Républicain Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise

40 2017 Presidential Elections Should Have Been Key Players, but Were Not Manuel Valls Parti Socialiste Alain Juppé - Républicain Benoît Hamon Parti Socialiste

41 French Presidential Elections 1 st vs. 2 nd Round Blue Marine Le Pen Yellow Emmanuel Macron Red Jean-Luc Melenchon Light Blue Francois Fillon

42 Next time Will examine: How new parties seized the opportunity to win votes Why the electoral map in 2017 was so abnormal How Macron got a majority in the Assemblée as well as the Presidency Where this may be going?