JACK S. LEVY. 89 George Street New Brunswick, NJ

Transcription

1 August 2017 JACK S. LEVY Board of Governors' Professor (848) tel Department of Political Science (848) fax Rutgers University 89 George Street New Brunswick, NJ MAJOR FIELDS OF INTEREST International Relations, Causes of War, Foreign Policy Analysis, Political Psychology, Qualitative Methodology EDUCATION Ph.D. (1976), M.A. (1972) Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Dissertation: "Military Power, Alliances, and Technology: An Analysis of Some Structural Determinants of International War among the Great Powers" (recipient of APSA s Helen Dwight Reid Award) B.S., Physics, Harvey Mudd College (1970) ACADEMIC POSITIONS Rutgers University, Professor, 1989; Board of Governors' Professor, University of Minnesota, Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin, Assistant Professor, ; Associate Professor, Visiting and adjunct positions Columbia University, Department of Political Science, Fall 1996, Spring 1998, Spring 2000, Fall 2017 Adjunct Senior Research Scholar, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, Yale University, Department of Political Science, Fall 1994, Fall 2008 Aoyama Gakuin University, School of International Politics, Economics & Communication, Tokyo, Japan, August 2006 New York University, Department of Politics, Spring 1998 Harvard University, Department of Government; Center for International Affairs and the Olin Institute, Faculty Associate; Spring 1993 Stanford University, Department of Political Science, ; Center for International Security and Arms Control, Visiting Scholar, Tulane University, Department of Political Science, HONORS AND AWARDS Distinguished Scholar, Division of International Relations, University of Haifa, Israel, 2017 President, International Studies Association, President, Peace Science Society (International), 2006

2 Honors and Awards (continued) Listed among the twenty most widely cited International Relations scholars ( The Political Science 400, PS, Jan 2007) Dream Mentor for Miller Center of Public Affairs (UVA) National Fellowship Program, Honorable mention for Giovanni Sartori Award (APSA, 2008) for best book developing or applying qualitative methods, for Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals (2007), co-edited with Gary Goertz Distinguished Scholar Award, Foreign Policy Analysis Section, ISA, 2000 Helen Dwight Reid Award (APSA 1977) for best dissertation in International Relations, Courses Taught Graduate: Theories of War and Peace, Foreign Policy Analysis, Qualitative Research Methods, Research Design, Empirical Research on Peace and War Undergraduate: Interdisciplinary Honors Seminars: The First World War: Causes, Consequences, and Controversy; Understanding War: Will the Second Horseman Ride Forever? Other courses: Causes of War; Crisis, Escalation, War; Foreign Policy Analysis and Crisis Decision-Making; The Wars of America; War and History; Introduction to International Relations; Theories of International Relations; American Foreign Policy; The International System; Strategies of International Relations; National Security Policy. GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS SSRC/MacArthur Foundation Fellowship in International Peace and Security, National Science Foundation (subcontract), Data Development for Intl. Research, Research Fellowship, Stanford Center for International Security and Arms Control, National Endowment for the Humanities, Fellowship for Independent Study & Research, Ford Foundation Fellowship, ; NIMH Traineeship in Empirical Theory and Methodology, ; PUBLICATIONS Citations Google Scholar: 11,961 citations (as of 8/30/2017) Google Scholar page: Books and Edited Volumes The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, [co-edited with John A. Vasquez] The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2 nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, [edited with Leonie Huddy and David O. Sears] 2

3 3 Books and Edited Volumes (cont.) The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, [with William R. Thompson] Causes of War. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, [with William R. Thompson] Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, [edited with Gary Goertz] Honorable mention for APSA s Sartori Award Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on The International History of Modern Europe, by Paul W. Schroeder. New York: Palgrave, [edited with David Wetzel and Robert Jervis] War in the Modern Great Power System, Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, Editor of Journal Special Issues and Symposia 50 th Anniversary Special Issue of Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014): [edited with Halvard Buhaug] Commentary on Preventive War. International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): Includes Introduction. Symposium on Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Qualitative Methods, 4, 1 (Spring 2006): "Decision Theory. A special issue of Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003). [edited with Raymond Dacey] Includes Preface. Early View and Forthcoming Articles and Chapters Power Transitions, Status, and War: The Sino-Japanese War of [with Andrew Q. Greve], Security Studies, forthcoming. Articles and Chapters (online publications listed separately below) Shifting Power, Preventive Logic, and the Response of the Target: Germany, Russia, and the First World War, Journal of Strategic Studies 40, 5: [with William Mulligan] Clausewitz and People s War, Journal of Strategic Studies 40, 3 (2017): Information, Commitment, and the Russo-Japanese War of Foreign Policy Analysis 12, 4 (October 2016): [with Philip Streich]

4 4 Articles and Chapters (cont.) Backing Out or Backing In? Commitments and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory. American Journal of Political Science 59, 4 (October 2015): [with Michael K. McKoy, Paul Poast, and Geoffrey P. R. Wallace] Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis. Security Studies 24, 3 (September 2015): Everyone s Favored Year for War or Not? International Security 39, 4 (Spring 2015): [ Correspondence with Jack Snyder] Opposition Politics and International Crises: A Formal Model. International Studies Quarterly 58, 4 (December 2014): [with Patrick Shea and Terence K. Teo] Introduction: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Causes of the First World War. In Jack S. Levy and John A. Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Pp [with John A. Vasquez] The Sources of Preventive Logic in German Decision-making in In Jack S. Levy and John A. Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision- Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, Pp Preemptive and Preventive War. In Joel Krieger, ed., The Oxford Companion to International Relations. 2 vols. New York: Oxford University Press, Vol. 2, pp Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue. Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014): [with Halvard Buhaug and Henrik Urdal] International War. In Masamichi Sasaki, Jack A. Goldstone, Ekkart Zimmermann, and Stephen K. Sanderson, eds., Concise Encyclopedia of Comparative Sociology. Leiden, the Netherlands: Brill, Pp The Decline of War? Multiple Trajectories and Diverging Trends. International Studies Review 15, 3 (September 2013): [with William R. Thompson] In Forum: The Decline of War, with Steven Pinker and Bradley A. Thayer, ed. by Nils Petter Gleditsch. Pp Introduction: Theoretical Foundations of Political Psychology. [with Leonie Huddy and David O. Sears]. In Huddy, Sears, and Levy, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2 nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Pp

5 5 Psychology and Foreign Policy Decision-Making. In Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2 nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Pp Has Violence Declined in World Politics? A Discussion of Joshua S. Goldstein s Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide. Perspectives on Politics 11, 2 (2013): [Review Symposium with Page Fortna and John Mearsheimer, pp, ] Interstate War and Peace. In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations. 2 nd ed. London: Sage, Pp Coercive Threats, Audience Costs, and Case Studies. Security Studies, 21, 3 (September 2012): "British Grand Strategy and the Rise of Germany, [with Norrin M. Ripsman]. In Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Steven E. Lobell, eds., The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars. New York: Cambridge University Press, Pp The Paths-to-War Concept. In John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, Pp Sea Powers, Continental Powers, and Balancing Theory. International Security, 36, 2 (Fall 2011): [with William R. Thompson, Correspondence with David W. Blagden] Domestic Politics and Commercial Rivalry: Explaining the War of Jenkins Ear, European Journal of International Relations, 17, 2 (June 2011): [with Patricia T. Young] The Initiation and Spread of the First World War: Interdependent Decisions. Foreign Policy Analysis, 7, 2 (April 2011): "Theories and Causes of War." In Christopher Coyne and Rachel L. Mathers, eds., The Handbook on the Political Economy of War. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, Pp Preventive War: Concept and Propositions. International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power? International Security, 35, 1 (Summer 2010): [with William R. Thompson] Abridged version reprinted in in Colin Elman and Michael Jenson, eds. Realism Reader. New York: Routledge, Pp

6 6 "Conscious Action and Intelligence Failure." Political Science Quarterly, 124, 3 (Fall 2009): [with Uri Bar-Joseph] Case Studies and Conflict Resolution. In Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk, and I. William Zartman, eds., The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution. London: Sage, Pp Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s. International Security, 34, 1 (Summer 2009): [with Norrin M. Ripsman; Correspondence with Evan Resnick and Andrew Barros & Talbot Imlay] Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s. International Security, 33, 2 (Fall 2008): [with Norrin M. Ripsman] Counterfactuals and Case Studies. In Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady, and David Collier, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, Pp Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China. In Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds., China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, Pp Published in China by Shanghai People's Press, Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy: The Contributions of Alexander George. Political Psychology, 29, 4 (August 2008): Preventive War and Democratic Politics. International Studies Quarterly, 52, 1 (March 2008): (Presidential address, International Studies Association) Abridged version reprinted in Scott P. Handler, ed., International Politics: Classic and Contemporary Readings. Los Angeles and Washington D.C.: Sage and CQ Press, Pp Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 25, 1 (Spring 2008): (Presidential address, Peace Science Society [International]) Reprinted in Malcolm Tight, ed., Case Studies. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. 2. "Theory, Evidence, and Politics in the Evolution of Research Programs." In Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Lichbach, eds., Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, Pp Causal Explanation, Necessary Conditions, and Case Studies. In Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, Pp [with Gary Goertz]

7 7 The Role of Necessary Conditions in the Outbreak of World War I. In Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, Pp Time Horizons, Discounting, and Intertemporal Choice. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51, 2 (April 2007): [with Philip Streich] The Preventive War that Never Happened: Britain, France, and the Rise of Germany in the 1930s. Security Studies, 16, 1 (January-March 2007): [with Norrin M. Ripsman] Qualitative Methods and Cross-Method Dialogue in Political Science. Comparative Political Studies, 40, 2 (February 2007): Preventive War and the Bush Doctrine: Theoretical Logic and Historical Roots. In Stanley A. Renshon and Peter Suedfeld, eds., The Bush Doctrine: Psychology and Strategy in an Age of Terrorism. London: Routledge, Pp International Sources of Interstate and Intrastate War. In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, Pp "Hegemonic Threats and Great Power Balancing in Europe, " Security Studies, 14, 1 (January-March 2005): [with William R. Thompson] Politically Motivated Opposition to War. International Studies Review, 6, 4 (December 2004): [with William F. Mabe, Jr.] Reprinted in Daniel S. Geller and John A. Vasquez, eds., The Construction and Cumulation of Knowledge in International Relations. Malden, MA: Blackwell, Pp "Trading with the Enemy during Wartime, Security Studies, 13, 3 (Spring 2004): [with Katherine Barbieri]. "What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When? In T.V. Paul, James Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann, eds., Balance of Power Revisited: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, Pp

8 8 Introduction to Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on The International History of Modern Europe, by Paul W. Schroeder, ed. by David Wetzel, Robert Jervis, and Jack S. Levy. New York: Palgrave, Pp [with David Wetzel and Robert Jervis] "Crisis Mismanagement or Conflict of Interests? A Case Study of the Crimean War." In Zeev Maoz, Alex Mintz, T. Clifton Morgan, Glenn Palmer, and Richard J. Stoll, eds., Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations: Methodology in the Study of Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, Pp [with Joseph R. Gochal] "Policy and Politics in Security Studies." In Edward D. Mansfield and Richard Sisson, eds., The Evolution of Political Knowledge: Democracy, Autonomy, and Conflict in Comparative and International Politics. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, Pp Political Psychology and Foreign Policy." In David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press, Pp The Trade Disruption Hypothesis and the Liberal Economic Theory of Peace. In Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds., Globalisation and Armed Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, Pp [with Katherine Barbieri] Aspects of Contemporary Decision Analysis. Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003): [with Raymond Dacey]. Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science. Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003): Economic Interdependence, Opportunity Costs, and Peace. In Edward D. Mansfield, and Brian M. Pollins, eds., Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp "Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions, and Research Design. In John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman, eds., Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Pp "The Power Transition Research Program: A Lakatosian Analysis. In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field. Cambridge: MIT Press, Pp [with Jonathan M. DiCicco] Abridged version printed in Colin Elman and Michael Jenson, eds. Realism Reader. New York: Routledge, Pp

9 9 "Necessary Conditions in Case Studies: Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." In Gary Goertz and Harvey Starr, eds., Necessary Conditions: Theory, Methodology, and Applications. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, Pp Reprinted with modifications as The Role of Necessary Conditions in the Outbreak of World War I. In Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, Pp "Qualitative Methods in International Relations." In Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp "Daniel Kahneman: Judgment, Decision, and Rationality." PS: Political Science and Politics, 35, 2 (June 2002): "War and Peace." In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations. London: Sage, Pp "Democracy and Preventive War: Israel and the 1956 Sinai Campaign." Security Studies, 11, 2 (Winter 2001/2): [with Joseph R. Gochal] Does War Impede Trade? A Response to Anderton and Carter. Journal of Peace Research, 38, 5 (September 2001): [with Katherine Barbieri] "Explaining Events and Developing Theories: History, Political Science, and the Analysis of International Relations." In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. Cambridge: MIT Press, Pp Reprinted in Japanese in volume of same title, translated by A. Watanabe, A. Miyashita, K. Noguchi, M. Toya, and Y. Tanaka (University of Tokyo Press, 2003). Pp Demographic Change and the Sources of International Conflict." In Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, eds., Demography and National Security. New York: Berghahn Books, Pp [with Ronald R. Krebs] "Theories of Interstate and Intrastate War: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach." In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, Pp Translated into Arabic and distributed by the United States Institute of Peace, 2006.

10 10 "Continuity and Change in the Evolution of War." In Zeev Maoz and Azar Gat, eds., War in a Changing World. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp [with Thomas C. Walker and Martin S. Edwards] "War: Causes and Patterns." In International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Ed. by Neil J. Smelser and Paul B. Baltes. Oxford, UK: Pergamon, Pp "Loss Aversion, Framing Effects, and International Conflict: Perspectives from Prospect Theory. In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies II. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp "Reflections on the Scientific Study of War." In John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, Pp "War and Its Causes." In Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and Eugene R. Wittkopf, ed., The Global Agenda, 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, Pp "Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program." Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, 4 (December 1999): [with Jonathan M. DiCicco] Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. III. "Sleeping With the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade." Journal of Peace Research, 36, 4 (July 1999): [with Katherine Barbieri] "The Rise and Decline of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, " In William R. Thompson, ed., Great Power Rivalries. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, Pp "War, Causes of." In Violence in America: An Encyclopedia, vol. 3. Ed. by Ronald Gottesman and Richard Maxwell Brown. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, Pp "Misperception and the Use of Force: A Commentary on Ralph White's 'American Acts of Force.'" Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology, 4, 2 (July 1998): "The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace." Annual Review of Political Science, 1 (June 1998): Reprinted in David A. Baldwin, ed., Theories of International Relations. Burlington, VT: Ashgate, Pp "From Commercial Competition to Strategic Rivalry to War: The Evolution of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, " In Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Urbana/ Champaign: University of Illinois Press, Pp [with Salvatore Ali]

11 11 "Contributions of Behavioral Decision Theory to Research in Political Science." Applied Psychology: An International Review, 47, 1 (January 1998): [with Richard R. Lau] "Prospect Theory and the Cognitive-Rational Debate." In Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz, eds., Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, Pp "Too Important to Leave to the Other: History and Political Science in the Study of International Relations." International Security, 22, 1 (Summer 1997): "Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations." International Studies Quarterly, 41, 1 (March 1997): Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. II. "Contending Theories of International Conflict: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach." In Chester Crocker and Fen Hampson, eds., Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, Pp "Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict." International Political Science Review, 17, 2 (April 1996): Reprinted in Frank Harvey and Ben Mor, eds., Conflict in World Politics: Advances in the Study of Crises, War, and Peace. London: Macmillan, Pp "The Evolution of Militarized Interstate Disputes." In Stuart A. Bremer and Thomas R. Cusack, eds., The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War. Philadelphia: Gordon and Breach, Pp "The Theoretical Foundations of Paul W. Schroeder's International System." International History Review, 16, 4 (November 1994): "The Democratic Peace Hypothesis: From Description to Explanation." Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 2 (October 1994): "Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield." International Organization, 48, 2 (Spring 1994): "Learning from Experience in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy." In Manus I. Midlarsky, John A. Vasquez, and Peter Gladkov, eds., From Rivalry to Cooperation: Soviet and American Perspectives on the Post-Cold War Era. New York: HarperCollins, Pp

12 12 "Alliance Formation, Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security." Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 14, 4 (December 1992): [with Michael N. Barnett] "Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed. The Internationalization of Communal Strife. New York: Routlege, Pp [with Lily I. Vakili] "An Introduction to Prospect Theory." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): Reprinted in Barbara Farnham, ed., Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp "Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): Reprinted in Barbara Farnham, ed., Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, Pp "The Role of Crisis Mismanagement in the Origins of World War I." In Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. Boulder, Col.: Westview, Pp "Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: The Case of Egypt, " International Organization, 45, 3 (Summer 1991): [with Michael N. Barnett] "Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis." International Security, 16, 1 (Summer 1991): [ Correspondence with Thomas J. Christensen and Marc Trachtenberg] Reprinted in World War I: A Batch from International Security. MIT Press Journals, For Kindle. "Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions, and the Long Peace." In Charles W. Kegley, Jr. ed., The Long Postwar Peace. New York: HarperCollins, Pp "Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." International Security, 15, 3 (Winter ): Reprinted in Steven E. Miller, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Stephen Van Evera, eds., Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, rev. ed. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), pp World War I: A Batch from International Security. MIT Press Journals, For Kindle. "Base Stealers versus Power Hitters: A Nation-State Level Analysis of the Frequency and Seriousness of War." In Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky, eds., Prisoners of War? Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, Pp [with T. Clifton Morgan]

13 13 "Big Wars, Little Wars, and Theory Construction." International Interactions, 16, 3 (1990): "The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence." In Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly, eds. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. I. New York: Oxford University Press (for the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council), Pp "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. London: Unwin-Hyman, Pp Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. II. "Quantitative Studies of Deterrence Success and Failure." In Paul C. Stern, Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis, and Roy Radner, eds., Perspectives on Deterrence. New York: Oxford University Press (for the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council), Pp "War and Perception." In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Crisis Management, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Pp "When Do Deterrent Threats Work?" British Journal of Political Science 18, 4 (October 1988): "Analytic Problems in the Identification of Wars." International Interactions, 14, 2 (1988): Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. I. "Domestic Politics and War." Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18, 4 (Spring 1988): Reprinted in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Pp Edward Rhodes, ed., International Relations: Introductory Readings. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt, Pp Revised printing (1998), pp "Contending Theories of War." In Charles W. Kegley, Jr., and Eugene R. Wittkopf, eds., The Global Agenda, 2nd ed. New York: Random House, Pp Revised and reprinted as "The Causes of War: Contending Theories," 3rd ed., 1992, pp "War in the Post-Cold War Era: Structural Perspectives on the Causes of War." 4th ed., 1995, pp "Towards a New Millennium: Structural Perspectives on the Causes of War." 5th edition, 1998, pp

14 14 "Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War." World Politics, 40, 1 (October 1987): Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, II Abridged version reprinted in Colin Elman and Michael Jensen, eds., The Realism Reader. London: Routledge, Pp "Organizational Routines and the Causes of War." International Studies Quarterly, 30, 2 (June 1986): Reprinted in Bruce Russett, Harvey Starr, and Richard Stoll, eds., Choices in World Politics. New York: W.H. Freeman, Pp "The War-Weariness Hypothesis: An Empirical Test." American Journal of Political Science, 30, 1 (February 1986): [with T. Clifton Morgan] Reprinted with changes in Margaret P. Karns, ed., Persistent Patterns and Emergent Structures in a Waning Century. New York: Praeger, Pp "The Structure of the International System and the Frequency and Seriousness of War." In Margaret P. Karns, ed., Persistent Patterns and Emergent Structures in a Waning Century. New York: Praeger, Pp [with T. Clifton Morgan] "Theories of General War." World Politics, 37, 3 (April 1985): "The Polarity of the System and International Stability: An Empirical Analysis." In Alan Ned Sabrosky, ed., Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict. Boulder, Col.: Westview, Pp "The Causes of the Iran-Iraq War." In James Brown and William P. Snyder, eds., The Regionalization of War. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, Pp [with Michael Froelich] "The Frequency and Seriousness of War: An Inverse Relationship?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28, 4 (December 1984): [with T. Clifton Morgan] "The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis." International Studies Quarterly, 28, 2 (June 1984): Reprinted in Richard K. Betts, ed. Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace. New York: Macmillan, Pp ; 2 nd ed., Longman, 2002, pp ; 2 nd ed updated, Pearson/Longman, 2005, pp Barry Buzan and Lene Hansen, eds., International Security. 4 vols. London: Sage Publications Ltd Vol. 1.

15 15 "Size and Stability in the Modern Great Power System." International Interactions, 10, 3-4 (1984): "Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems." World Politics, 36, 1 (October 1983): Reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, eds., War. 4 vols. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, Vol. II. "World System Analysis: A Great Power Framework." In William R. Thompson, ed., Contending Approaches to World System Analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, Pp "The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, " American Journal of Political Science, 26, 3 (August 1982): "Historical Trends in Great Power War, " International Studies Quarterly, 26, 2 (June 1982): Reprinted with modifications in Melvin Small and J. David Singer, eds., International War. Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, Pp George A. Lopez and Michael S. Stohl, eds., International Relations. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, Pp Peter A. Toma and Robert F. Gorman. International Relations. Pacific Grove, Calif.: Brooks-Cole, Pp "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, " Journal of Conflict Resolution, 25, 4 (December 1981): Reprinted in John A. Vasquez and Marie T. Henehan, eds. The Scientific Study of Peace and War. New York: Macmillan/ Lexington, Chap. 1. Prefaces, Forwards, etc. Preface for Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Ryan G. Baird, and Keith A. Grant, eds., Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics: Global and Regional Perspectives. New York: Palgrave, Pp. xi-xiii.

16 16 Online Publications When presidents back in to foreign conflicts, here s what happens. The Washington Post, Monkey Cage, 12 April [with Michael McKoy, Paul Poast, and Geoffrey P.R. Wallace] Introduction to H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable on Fred Chernoff's Explanation and Progress in Security Studies: Bridging Theoretical Divides in International Relations (Stanford University Press, 2014). H-Diplo 9, 11 (20 February 2017), 2-7. issforum.org/issf/pdf/issf-roundtable pdf Review of Jennifer Siegel, For Peace and Money: French and British Finance in the Service of Tsars and Commissars (Oxford University Press, 2015). H-Diplo 18, 7 (24 October 2016), Introduction to H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable on Keren Yarhi-Milo s Knowing The Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence Organizations, and Assessments of Intentions in International Relations. 7, 19 (2015), Beginning the Great War. A Virtual Roundtable with William Mulligan, Thomas Otte, and John C. G. Röhl. Cambridge University Press blog, 2 July H-Diplo Roundtable review of Zara Steiner, The Triumph of the Dark: European International History Oxford: Oxford University Press, XV, 4 (27 September 2013), Response to our Critics. H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable on Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson, The Arc of War. With Bruce Russett, R. Brian Ferguson, Stephen Morillo, and Clifford J. Rogers. 6, 1 (September 2013). Roundtable-6-1.pdf The Hazards of Forecasting. In Will the Long Peace Persist, National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030 blog, August Introduction to H-Diplo/ISSF roundtable on Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence, by Joshua Rovner. 3, 17 (2012), The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation. The Montreal Review (April 2012). [with William R. Thompson] Well Worth the Wait. Qualitative Methods, 4, 1 (Spring 2006):

17 Other Publications In Memoriam: Alexander L. George Qualitative Methods Newsletter 4, 2 (2007). [with Deborah Larson) Under Review for Publication Political Decision-Making. Chap. 8 in Christopher J. Hewer and Evanthia Lyons, eds., Political Psychology. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Work in Progress Article-length projects Political Capacity, Dissatisfaction, and Power Shifts: An Endogenous Power Transition Model (with Andrew Q. Greve, ISA 2017) Economic Interdependence, Peace, and War Economic Interdependence and the First World War (with William Mulligan) Counterfactuals of the Great War (for ISA 2018) Playing It Straight or Politicized Process? British Military Intelligence and the Nazi Threat, (with Norrin M. Ripsman) Loss Aversion, Risky Choices, and the Great War. Presented at ISPP, July When Leaders Want Peace and Oppositions Want War: British Politics and the War of Jenkins' Ear, [with Patricia T. Young, ISA, 2012] Book-length projects Analyzing the Causes of War: Power, Politics, and Psychology. Routledge, contract. Hegemonic Threats, Balancing, and War [with William R. Thompson] Britain, France, and the Rise of Nazi Germany in the 1930s [with Norrin M. Ripsman] The Theory and Practice of Preventive War Handbook of Modern Great Power Wars, (long term project) A book-length reference work on all great power wars since For each I include basic data, chronologies, an interpretive essay on the origins, escalation, and consequences of the war, and an annotated bibliography. 17

18 Data and Codebooks great power war data, (in 1983 book); revised in Codebook and Data on Great Power War, (1989) [with T. Clifton Morgan and Patrick Judd]. Abbreviated version reprinted in DDIR-Update 4/2 (January 1990): 1-5. I am currently working to revise and update this dataset. great power alliance data, (1981); (2004) [with William R. Thompson] 18 OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Keynote Addresses: Division of International Relations, University of Haifa, Israel, conference on Intelligence, National Security, and Military Strategy. 25 May Talk: Policy, Politics, and Intelligence: British Perceptions of the Nazi Threat, Instituto de Defesa Nacional Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal, conference on Small Power is a Power? The Role and Resilience of Small and Medium Powers During the Great War , 30 September 1 October Talk: International Relations Theory and the Great War. University of Pittsburgh, Matthew B. Ridgway Center for International Security Studies, conference on "Avoiding a Nuclear Sarajevo: Lessons from World War I for Crisis Management in the 21st Century," 25 September Talk: Conflicting Interests and Crisis Management in July 1914 Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya, Israel, conference on Behavioral Decision Making, 30 May 1 June Talk: Behavioral Decision Theory and International Relations University of Utah, conference on Grand Strategy in the Interwar Years, March, Talk: Preventive War in Theory and Practice United States Strategic Command, Unified Engagement 2008 Deterrence Seminar, Omaha, September 2008 ISA - Northeast 2007: The Interplay of Theory and Evidence in the Evolution of Research Programs ISA - Midwest 2007: "Democratic Constraints on Preventive War: Theory and Evidence ISA - West 2007, The Balance of Power on Land and at Sea ISA 2007 Presidential Address: The Theory and Practice of Preventive War Peace Science Society (International), Presidential Address, 2006: Qualitative Methods and Peace Science University of Florida, conference on Organizational and Social Learning, 2001: Learning and Foreign Policy Conferences, Workshops, and Talks (last two years only) University of Cincinnati: The Causes and Consequences of the First World War. 5 March 2018 University of Washington: Economic Interdependence and the First World War. 16 February Division of International Relations, Haifa University, Israel: Counterfactual Analysis (workshop), 24 May 2017

19 University of Colorado, Department of Political Science: Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis. 21 April ISA 2017: paper, Crisis Escalation in Power Transitions: Domestic Politics and the Sino- Japanese Rivalry, (with Andrew Q. Greve, ISA 2017); and chair panel on Power Shifts and International Conflict. ISA 2017: chair roundtable on Daase's & Davis's Clausewitz on Small War - New avenues for research Summer School in Mixed Methods, Institute of Political Science, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, 11 January Lectures on counterfactual analysis. APSA 2016: Paper: Economic Interdependence, Grand Strategy, and the Great War (with William Mulligan) Institute for Qualitative and Multimethod Research, 2016, June 20, module on Counterfactuals. Talks: (1) Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis ; (2) Counterfactuals of the Great War ; (3) Other Historical Applications of Counterfactual Analysis. Princeton University, Department of Politics, Qualitative Research Colloquium: Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis, 17 May 2016 ISA 2016: Paper, Power Transitions, Status Dissatisfaction, and War: The Sino-Japanese War of (with Andrew Q. Greve) Other Projects Methods Coordinator for Counterfactual Analysis section of the Consortium on Qualitative and Multimethod Research s Methods Coordination Project, Co-Chair, 1914 project, of the Qualitative Data Repository project sponsored by the Consortium on Qualitative and Multi-Method Research and funded by NSF. Editorial and Advisory Boards Present American Political Science Review, ; ; Foreign Policy Analysis, ; ; Political Psychology, ; ; Journal of Global Security Studies, The Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory (2016-) Lexington Press series on Innovations in the Study of World Politics Past International History Review, International Studies Quarterly, ; ; ; ; International Studies Review, ; International Studies Perspectives, ; Journal of Politics, ; ; Mershon International Studies Review, Polity, World Politics, ; International Studies Compendium, International Encyclopedia of Political Science, Editorial Consultant 19

20 20 Among Nations: Readings in International Relations (Pearson/Council on Foreign Relations, ) Conflict Studies, Political Science Network (PSN)/Social Science Research Network (2007- ) Prentice-Hall Studies in International Relations, Palgrave series on Advances in Foreign Policy Analysis, Program in Foreign Policy Decision Making, Texas A & M, Rutgers Center for Historical Analysis, Sage Handbook of Conflict Resolution, International Advisory Board of Editors, External Review Committees Queens College/CUNY, Department of Political Science (2014) Duke University [Committee Chair] (2005) University of Pennsylvania, International Relations Program (2005) University of Colorado at Boulder, Program in International Affairs (2002) Cornell University, Department of Political Science (2002) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Political Science (1996) Reviewer: Manuscripts and Grant Proposals Journals: American Journal of Political Science, American Political Science Review, American Politics Research, Armed Forces and Society, Asia Pacific World, British Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Sociology, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Cooperation and Conflict, Cross- Cultural Research, Democracy and Security, Diplomacy & Statecraft, Ethnopolitics, European Journal of International Relations, European Journal of International Security, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Interactions, International Organization, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, International Security, International Studies Perspectives, International Studies Quarterly, International Studies Review, International Theory, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Politics, Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Mathematical Modeling, Political Psychology, Political Research Quarterly, Political Science Quarterly, Political Studies, PS: Political Science & Politics, Review of International Studies, Security Studies, Western Political Quarterly. Foundations, Institutes, Publishers: Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, NSF-Political Science, NSF-Sociology, School of Historical Studies at the Institute of Advanced Study at Princeton University, and various publishers.

21 Offices in Professional Associations American Political Science Association: Administrative Committee ; Council ; Council Committee on Elections ; International History and Politics section program chair 2000, president, ; Conflict Processes section program chair, 1989; committee on Lifetime Achievement Award (chair, ) International Studies Association: President, ; Journals Transitions Committee (Chair, ); Vice-President ; Executive Committee , ; Scientific Study of International Processes Section (Chair, ); Nominating Committee (chair, ); Karl Deutsch Award Committee , (chair) International Society for Political Psychology: Governing Council , ; Nominating Committee ; Lasswell-Sanford Award Committee 1999, 2004 Peace Science Society (International): President ; Councilor