Why Evaluating Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable with Richard Zeckhauser, forthcoming in Intelligence and National Security

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1 Assistant Professor Department of Government Dartmouth College 224 Silsby Hall, HB 6108 Hanover, N.H (617) Education Ph.D. in Public Policy, Harvard University, 2013 Dissertation: Cumulative Dynamics and Strategic Assessment: U.S. Military Decision Making in Iraq, Vietnam, and the American Indian Wars. Stephen Walt, chair. Robert Bates, Monica Toft, and Richard Zeckhauser, committee. A.B. in Government, Harvard College, 2005 Magna cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa. Publications Why Evaluating Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable with Richard Zeckhauser, forthcoming in Intelligence and National Security Using Power Laws to Estimate Conflict Size, forthcoming in Journal of Conflict Resolution. Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden, with Richard Zeckhauser, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (February 2015), pp Featured on NPR s All Things Considered, July 23, Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? with Stephen Biddle and Jacob N. Shapiro, International Security, Vol. 37, No. 1 (2012), pp Reprinted in The New Counterinsurgency Era in Critical Perspective, ed. Celeste Ward Gventer, David Martin Jones, and M. L. R. Smith (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014).

2 -See also Correspondence: Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq, with Stephen Biddle and Jacob N. Shapiro, International Security, Vol. 37. No. 4 (2013) pp Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence, with Richard Zeckhauser, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 27, No. 6 (2012), pp Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq, with Stephen Biddle and Stephen Long, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 1 (2012), pp Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine, Security Studies, Vol. 20, No. 4 (2011), pp The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy, with Stephen Biddle (Carlisle, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2008). -Excerpted in Hybrid Warfare and Transnational Threats: Perspectives for an Era of Persistent Conflicts, ed. Paul Brister, William H. Natter, and Robert Tomes (Washington, D.C.: Center for Emerging National Security Affairs, 2011). Ongoing research The Best Chance of Success: Relative Judgments of Strategic Prospects in Afghanistan and Vietnam, Presented at Yale s Macmillan Center for International and Area Studies. Trial and Error in Strategic Assessment: How Cumulative Dynamics Affect Learning in War, Presented at 2014 International Studies Association Conference. The Value of Precision in Geopolitical Forecasting: Empirical Foundations for Intelligence Analysis and Foreign Policy Decision Making, with Joshua Baker, Barbara Mellers, and Richard Zeckhauser. The Problem of Sufficient Certainty: Critical Thresholds and Estimative Probabilities in National Security Decision Making. The Use of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in National Security, with Richard Zeckhauser and Jennifer Lerner. Communicating Uncertainty without Using Numbers: Theoretical and Empirical Foundations for Intelligence Doctrine, with Richard Zeckhauser. Political Structure and Military Behavior in the American Indian Wars, Presented at 2014 International Studies Association Conference. 2

3 Fellowships and Awards Postdoctoral Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy and International Security, Dickey Center for International Understanding, Dartmouth College: Predoctoral Fellow, International Security Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs: Dissertation Completion Fellowship, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs: Graduate Student Associate, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs: , Graduate Student Fellow, Tobin Project: , Certificates of Distinction in Undergraduate Teaching, Harvard College: 2009, 2010, Teaching Lessons from America s Foreign Wars. Dartmouth College, Spring Foreign Policy Analysis and Decision Making. Dartmouth College, Winter Civil War, Insurgency, and the International Response. Dartmouth College, Fall Doctoral Research Seminar, Harvard Kennedy School. Co-Instructor, Fall Course not rated by students. Analytic Frameworks for Policy, Harvard Kennedy School. Teaching Fellow, Fall Rated 4.7/5.0 by students. Origins of Modern Wars, Harvard College. Head Teaching Fellow, Spring 2010 & Spring Rated 4.9 and 4.8/5.0 by students, received two Bok Center Certificates of Distinction in Undergraduate Teaching. Introduction to International Relations, Harvard College. Teaching Fellow, Spring Rated 4.7/5.0 by students, received Bok Center Certificate of Distinction in Undergraduate Teaching. Presentations Organized by project; individual presentations have varying titles; asterisks indicate invited talks The Use of Probability in Military Decision Making International Studies Association (New Orleans, La.), scheduled February 2015; Yale University, Macmillan Center for International and Area Studies (New Haven, Conn.), 3

4 September 2014 * ; George Washington University, Institute for Security and Conflict Studies (Washington, D.C.), September 2014 *. Lessons from the American Indian Wars for Counterinsurgency and Conflict Studies Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dept. of Political Science (Cambridge, Mass.), April 2014 *. How Cumulative Dynamics Affect Military Decision Making International Studies Association (Toronto, Ont.), March 2014; Belfer Center for International Affairs, International Security Program (Cambridge, Mass.), September 2012; Triangle Institute for Strategic Studies New Faces in Security Studies Conference (Chapel Hill, N.C.), September 2012; Harvard-MIT-Yale Graduate Student Conference on Political Violence (Cambridge, Mass.), April 2012; International Studies Association (San Diego, Calif.), April Using Power Laws to Estimate Conflict Size American Political Science Association (Chicago, Ill.), August Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden Harvard Kennedy School, Judgment and Decision Making Seminar (Cambridge, Mass.), October 2014*; Midwest Political Science Association (Chicago, Ill.), April Political Structure and Military Behavior in the American Indian Wars International Studies Association (Toronto, Ont.), March 2014; Midwest Political Science Association (Chicago, Ill.), April 2013; International Studies Association Junior Scholar Symposium (San Francisco, Calif.), April 2013; Harvard-MIT-Yale Graduate Student Conference on Political Violence (Cambridge, Mass.), April Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Program on the Economics of National Security (Cambridge, Mass.), July 2012; MIT-PRIO Conference on Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism (Cambridge, Mass.), November 2011 *. Manpower in Counterinsurgency National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Program on the Economics of National Security (Cambridge, Mass.), July 2011 * ; U.S. Military Academy, Department of Social Sciences (West Point, N.Y.), March 2011 * ; Center for Army Analysis (Ft. Belvoir, Va.), January 2011 * ; Harvard-MIT-Yale Graduate Student Conference on Political Violence (Cambridge, Mass.), April Cumulative Effects and the Study of War Harvard-MIT-Yale Graduate Student Conference on Political Violence (New Haven, Conn.), April

5 Is Military Assistance Destabilizing? Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference (Chicago, Ill.), April Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq George Washington University Dept. of Political Science (Washington, D.C.), October 2008 * ; American Political Science Association Annual Conference (Boston, Mass.), August 2008; Peace Science Society Annual Conference (Columbia, S.C.), November Other Panels organized: Empirical Studies of Uncertainty and Armed Conflict (ISA 2015) New Methodological Approaches to International Relations (ISA 2014) Native Americans and the West: Politics, History, and Connections to Broader Debates (APSA 2014) New Empirical Approaches to Security Studies (APSA 2013) Panel discussant: The Dynamics of Multiparty Conflicts (ISA 2014) New Evidence on Conflict (Harvard-Yale-MIT Conference on Political Violence 2013) Manuscript reviews: Armed Forces & Society Defence & Peace Economics International Interactions International Security International Studies Quarterly Journal of Conflict Resolution Journal of Peace Research Security Studies Previous research positions: Council on Foreign Relations International Security Assistance Force-Afghanistan Olin Institute for Strategic Studies World Bank Honors theses advised: Alexander P. Judson, Understanding Hezbollah: A Systematic Analysis of How the Party of God Responds to Threats. Dartmouth College, nd LT Warren Choi, USMC, Decision Making Processes at the J5. Harvard Kennedy School,

Risa Alexandra Brooks, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Political Science Marquette University

Risa Alexandra Brooks, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Political Science Marquette University risa.brooks@marquette.edu PRIMARY RESEARCH INTERESTS International Security/Security Studies; Civil-Military Relations;