Russia s managed democracy. bne: the only publication covering the action in New Europe
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1 Russia s managed democracy
2 Traditional democracies: the four estates parliament: talking shop judiciary: weak, but improved executive: real seat of power press: muted and in state hands
3 Russian democracy: control over choice executive - presidential decree - general prosecutors office - regional offices corporate apparat: ZAO Kremlin - state-owned companies - oligarch conglomerates
4
5 QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
6 Parties: Russia politically immature United Russia: party of power Just Russia: socialist version of party of power Liberal right: fragmented Communists: failed to reform
7 53% of Russians think their vote counts, Youth optimistic QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
8 Parties: Liberals out of touch with people
9 Lenin s project Agricultural society no proletariat party leads, creates conditions for communism Marxist-Leninism
10 Putin s project collapsed military-industrial society no middle class party leads, creates conditions for capitalism/democracy Putin-Smithism
11 Russia in Context: 1993 Verge of civil war
12 Control vs Chaos 1993: verge of civil war Russia s geography important factor: hard to rule vs Baltic s regional corruption out of control: Fed treasury regional fragmentation: Tatarstan embassies regional powerbases: oligarchs retreat to regions in 2000 third of fed council members on corporate payroll
13 Crises 1993 constitutional crisis 1994 Black Tuesday 1995 Gerashchenko cancels 1992 money 1998 August 17 - the big one
14 Middle class Putin s popularity is genuine, has delivered on what people want interests of the Kremlin and people aligned fast growth underpinned this support, but can t last forever
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16 Russians want continuation of Putin s policy poll Sept 10 The number of Russians who favor the continuation of President Vladimir Putin's political and economic course has grown from 27% to 42% over the past year, a pool conducted by the VTsIOM Public Opinion Studies Center found. The number of Russians who prefer a partial correction of that policy has dropped from 47% to 39%, while the number of those who want a drastic change of policy has fallen from 18% to 10%.
17 Consumers the big winners Russian average gross monthly wages in June reached RUB13,810 or more than $500 for the first time according to Rosstat
18 Consumers the big winners
19 Wealth base is spreading
20 Interests aligned - for now people/kremlin put stability over freedoms people/kremlin want material and economic growth people/kremlin want to restore Russian national pride no political event to radicalize the people growth of SMEs will be key
21 QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
22 Constitution adopted in 1993 as part of Yeltsin s constitutional coup no one wants Putin to go constitution strengthened by Yeltsin in 1999 and now Putin in 2008 does guarantee voters rights so mechanism is in place for parliamentary democracy to work Putin balances fractions and source of power is popular support
23 Thank you! Ben Aris editor-in-chief t
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