Edited by Ashley J. Tellis, Mercy Kuo, and Andrew Marble. Mind the Gap: Russian Ambitions vs. Russian Reality Eugene B. Rumer

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1 Edited by Ashley J. Tellis, Mercy Kuo, and Andrew Marble Country Studies Mind the Gap: Russian Ambitions vs. Russian Reality Eugene B. Rumer restrictions on use: This PDF is provided for the use of authorized recipients only. For specific terms of use, please contact To purchase the print volume Strategic Asia : Challenges and Choices in which this chapter appears please visit < or contact 1215 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1600 Seattle, Washington USA

2 executive summary This chapter reviews Russia s assertive return to the international arena and Moscow s strategy to build an international coalition to balance the U.S. main argument: Russia s ambitions are out of line with the country s diminished capabilities. Russia faces numerous challenges domestically including a demographic crisis, decrepit infrastructure, and an obsolete industrial base that unless dealt with will impede the country s growth. Russia s economic recovery is fragile and reliance on raw materials exports leaves the country vulnerable to fluctuations of the global marketplace. Moscow s ability to maintain stability will hinge on economic conditions, which could require potentially destabilizing reforms. Though Russian military capabilities have improved, many problems inherited from the 1990s remain. policy implications: For the U.S., Russia remains a key country a force in Eurasian geopolitics, an energy exporter, a balancer of China, and a presence in international financial markets. The U.S. would benefit from a policy toward Russia that recognizes the country s significance for Eurasia and the world more broadly. This would require a thorough assessment of the country s strengths and weaknesses, flexibility and commitment to core U.S. principles, careful prioritization, and an understanding that improving relations will require a long-term perspective and difficult trade-offs. The bilateral relationship is capable of delivering considerably more, but no foreign policy vision can guarantee that the two countries will be able to cooperate beyond their core interests. Any new political effort toward Russia would thus benefit from proceeding slowly and cautiously with managed expectations.

3 Russia Mind the Gap: Russian Ambitions vs. Russian Reality Eugene B. Rumer Russia s return to the ranks of major powers after nearly two decades of international retreat and domestic turmoil has been one of the key developments in the international arena in recent years. Outsiders have speculated about a return of the Cold War or the emergence of a multipolar world framed by new economic powers, among which Russia might play the pivotal role in opposing U.S. hegemony. Russian elites, long tired of their country s seemingly interminable decline and confusion, have found the resurgence a source of considerable pride and political consolidation. Building on newfound prosperity and long-standing ambitions, Russian leaders have demanded that their country be treated with the respect and deference fitting a great power that enjoys a special sphere of interests and a special place in the world. These claims have caught many perhaps most outside of Russia as much by surprise as did the breakup of the Soviet Union nearly two decades ago. The Russian turnaround appears nearly as surprising as Russia s decline was devastating. This chapter argues that notwithstanding Russia s impressive achievements and progress in recent years, the country still faces a number of obstacles. Russia s domestic politics are far from reaching sustainable equilibrium, the nation s economic outlook remains precariously tied to its mineral wealth, and the military, although recovered from the shock of the 1990s, has by no means regained its strength. To secure a place alongside other major powers, Russia will need to overcome many obstacles mainly Eugene B. Rumer is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He can be reached at <rumere@ndu.edu>. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

4 168 Strategic Asia in the domestic arena where present circumstances do not adequately support Moscow s ambitions in the international arena. Moreover, Russia s foreign policy posture has produced disappointing results. Russian interests (as defined by Moscow) are increasingly challenged along the nation s western, southern, and even eastern borders. This chapter will argue that Russia s ambitions do not match its capabilities, which owing to several key structural factors will constrain Russian foreign policy options in the future. Moscow s foreign policy vision exceeds the country s capabilities and is due for a correction. This correction, however, may not happen for some time, as near- and medium-term factors favor continued Russian growth. The first part of this chapter provides an overview of the grand strategy that emerged in the final years of the Putin presidency. An assessment of Russia s economic conditions, domestic political situation, and military capabilities follows. The chapter then presents a brief overview of Russian foreign policy accomplishments and concludes with recommendations for U.S. policymakers for managing the relationship with Russia, in all its complexity, in the coming years. Russian Grand Strategy: Back to the Future Throughout Vladimir Putin s presidency the principal objective of Russian foreign policy was to re-establish Russia as a major player in world affairs and prove Russia worthy of the full membership in the pantheon of great powers that the Soviet Union once had. That goal was perceptible in virtually every speech Putin delivered and in every appearance with foreign dignitaries and before domestic audiences on television, during marathon press conferences, in live call-in shows and online sessions, and in meetings with average citizens in various parts of the country. Russia spans eleven time zones on two continents, possesses a nuclear arsenal second to none, and occupies a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. It might seem surprising then that the leader of a country with Russia s stature would feel compelled to demonstrate his country s greatness with the urgency Putin attached to the task. That urgency, however, comes as no surprise to those who witnessed Russia s decline at home and retreat abroad during the 1990s, and especially not to the Russian people, who experienced that decline first hand.

5 Rumer Russia 169 A Realist Grand Strategy R-e-s-p-e-c-t. Putin s international strategy involved, above all, speaking loudly on behalf of Russia and projecting an image of strength, confidence, and competence. These actions had the effect presumably intended of underscoring the difference between Putin and his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, whose erratic performance in the 1990s had served as an embodiment of Russia s diminished circumstances. By his confident posture, Putin conveyed the message that his country was no longer the diminished Russia of yesteryear, relegated to geopolitical insignificance. Another far more consequential aspect of this strategy involved steps by which Putin intended to capitalize on increased domestic prosperity and stability, as well as on the underlying factors that generated that prosperity and in turn led to stability. Key among these factors are Russia s oil and gas wealth and its unmatched abundance and variety of other mineral resources. This unparalleled endowment is coupled with a unique geographic position. The fortuitous timing of global economic trends allowed Russia to exploit its natural advantages as the leading world economies developed an appetite for energy and raw materials. 1 The Kremlin has sought to establish Russia as the critical supplier of oil and gas, if not globally, then certainly in Eurasia. Economic muscle gives Russia increased political prominence in Europe and Asia. Energy and mineral wealth therefore provide the material foundation for Moscow s newly confident voice in the international arena. Russia seeks to become an energy superpower a country whose superpower status rests on energy resources. Its strategy is thus to speak loudly and hold a big pipe. A sphere to call its own. As a corollary to this strategy, Russia has pursued several objectives, the most important of which is the re-establishment of an exclusive sphere of influence throughout the territories of the former Soviet Union. Russian foreign policy analysts articulated a Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine soon after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The intent of this doctrine was to assert Russia s special interests in the former Soviet countries and the right to protect those interests. 2 The doctrine gives Moscow not only special access to these neighboring countries, including right of oversight over their foreign and security policy decisions, but also the ability to deny access to others. 1 Though Russia s resource wealth is undoubtedly a critical factor in the state s recovery, this chapter argues that this wealth constitutes Russia s Achilles heel: a weakness that keeps the Kremlin from implementing much-needed reforms in a variety of sectors reforms that would reduce Russia s vulnerability to the uncertainties of the global marketplace. 2 Lesley H. Gelb, Foreign Affairs; Yeltsin as Monroe, New York Times, March 7, 1993, nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9f0ceed91430f934a35750c0a