POST VISIT REPORT AMBASSADOR JAMES A. LAROCCO VISIT TO NDU 18 MAY 12

Transcription

1 2 POST VISIT REPORT AMBASSADOR JAMES A. LAROCCO VISIT TO NDU 18 MAY 12 Theme: Challenges and Opportunities for Regional and Western Powers & Cyber Security General 1. Ambassador Larocco, Director NESA along with Mr. Zachary J. Meyer, Forward Office Director Manama, Bahrain and Col John Wood, Associate Professor, NESA visited NDU on 18 May 2012 from hrs. A very thought provoking and insightful interaction took place. The meeting was chaired by Dean FSS and attended by Vice Admiral (R) Iftikhar Ahmad Rao, Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, and Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder, in addition to ISSRA and FCS faculty and students. The theme of the discussion was Challenges and Opportunities for Regional and Western Power & Cyber Security. List of participants and program of the day are attached as Annex A and B respectively. Call on the President NDU at his Office 2. President NDU welcomed the Guests in his office and after pleasantries following issues came under discussion:- a. While assessing the current state of Pakistan-US ties and determining their future direction, President NDU pointed out that Pakistan and US are passing through a most difficult time in their history of bilateral relations. It is difficult to talk nice about each other in both countries. He emphasized that US would one day realize that Pakistan was not that wrong during the tense period of our

2 3 relationship. We were relevant in the past and would remain relevant in the future as well. b. President NDU stressed on addressing the trust deficit between both countries. He added that we should look beyond public perceptions as we have many more areas of convergences than of divergences. c. President NDU also indicated that the issue of apology should have been dealt at military level soon after the Salala incident, avoiding political gambit at a later stage. Opening Remarks by Dean FSS 3. The AVM Rashid Kamal Dean FSS remarked that despite a huge potential of economic cooperation and opportunities for development, the South Asian region is in turmoil: largely because of militancy and radicalism, territorial conflicts and uncontrolled infringement of extra-area actors into the territorial jurisdiction of states. All these factors have further destabilized the region, pitting non state actors against the states. Issues of human rights, gender discrimination, ethnicity, governance, poverty and human security compound the already fragile situation in the region. All these issues are not only matter of great concern for individual states but also a severe threat to the socio-political fabric of the whole region. To deal with this grave situation, we need a strategic vision: a vision of mutual cooperation aloof from mutual rivalries and prejudices. Moreover, there is a huge scope of western powers assisting and enabling the whole region into an environment of stability, peace, rich economic activity, harmony and sustainable human development. Conversely, the regional powers can contribute in the global security and overall economic development. But certainly, there is a need of facing these challenges and exploring new opportunities of regional and global cooperation, while optimizing on the given potentials. He then asked the presenters to share their view points on various aspects of the theme.

3 4 Initiation by Vice Admiral (R) Iftikhar Ahmad Rao 4. He gave his presentation on the Challenges and Opportunities for Regional and Western Powers, vis-à-vis Pakistan s geo-strategic location. He pictorially displayed that Pakistan is geographically surrounded by four important actors. In the North-west are Central Asian Republics (CARs), and in the south-west is the Middle East. Both the regions are significantly important in the geo-politics and the geo-economics of the Globe. They are the producer countries. Where as in the North and East of Pakistan are China and India respectively. They are potentially the consumer countries due to their large population. They also have a great relevance in the global power politics. Owing to its geography, Pakistan can play a greater role in facilitating a peaceful change in the world order as well as in providing a corridor for the energy and supply routes. 5. Both, the regional and Western powers should maximize their opportunities. According to his view, the opportunities outweigh the challenges. Therefore, there is a greater need of creating a win-win situation for all. Cooperation not confrontation and engagement not containment should be the principles. Therefore, there is a need of fair play and avoiding zero sum game. The region cannot bear the politics of double standards. 6. His further focus remained on the cooperation in the Arabian Sea, and using it as an opportunity. He said that the global oil route passes near Gwadar port. Moreover, there are three routes of Central Asian energy supplies. One through Black Sea, other throughout Europe on land and the third is through Arabian Sea. The third one is more feasible because it has the shortest distance. The security in the Arabian Sea is very vital as 72% of oil flows through it from the Gulf and the Middle East. So, all the stakeholders must shift their focus from de-confliction to joint surveillance. Moreover, Positive attitude, interaction and understanding with each other can create atmosphere of cooperation. In this regard, mindsets need to be changed. There are many opportunities for anti-terrorism and anti-piracy operations in the region. While concluding he stressed that Cooperation at sea was

4 5 and would remain vital for all. Peaceful and conducive environment for maritime economic activity was essential for regional as well as Western countries. Presentation by Ambassador Larocco 7. The current nexus of power in the Middle East includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, and Israel all of which exert tremendous amount of hard and soft power, and will continue to do so. Presently, Syria has become immediate concern for its continuing instability. There is rising influence of countries like Iran which has the resources to back up its policies through shia-ism. 8. Syria is going to be the focus of either conflict or cooperation. How events play out in Syria will be important given its central role in the Arab world. He drew an analogy of Syria with Pakistan keeping in view the geo-strategic importance and the mix of its neighborhood. He even mentioned US physical support to Free Syrian Army, which is operating against President Assad s regime. 9. He also pointed out that the most overwhelming consequence of the continuing instability in the Middle Eastern region could be the massive exodus of people from these countries to neighboring countries and Southern Europe particularly Italy, Spain, Portugal etc, creating more complications. He concluded that South Asia and the Middle East are considered the future for the policy makers of the United States. Additionally, the ambassador showed his concerns about the inadequacy of local institutions and infrastructure to deal with the myriad future challenges, including the increased threat of Arab spring. Presentation by Mr. Zachary J. Meyer 10. He made a power point presentation on cyber security. He was of the view that a new kind of space battle has ensued between the US and China. It was high time for the US National Security Doctrine shift to more relevance. Cyberspace is a fifth battle space. It has following principles: Decisive outcomes, Disproportionate power, anonymity and strategic tenets. There are many case studies regarding

5 6 cyber-war, as Iraq 2003, Estonia 2007, Syria 2007, Georgia 2008 and Stuxnet The challenges are in the following domains: Defining Rules of Engagement in cyberspace, deterrence and declaratory policy, supply chain risk management, information sharing with industry, and developing the right skill sets for the future. He concluded that a kind of U.S. China accord can serve as a model to control cyber-arms race and an International Convention on cyberspace should be the future goal. Interactive Session 11. In the interactive session, various points were raised. It was said that we need a correct perception with regard to the Political situation in the Middle East. The US approach is tinged as it sees the situation in a Shia-Sunni conflict. It was argued that in Iran-Iraq war, nationalism rather than sectarianism played a greater role and the Shias of Iraq did not support Iran in the war. 12. Another input was given that there was a need of international law for the cyberspace. Moreover, mostly the states focus on the proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction but do not consider the small arms. There is an urgent need of conventions on small arms proliferation. Their origin and production should be traced. 13. The issue of hostility and struggle for space between China and US in Africa was also raised. The Americans are afraid of the increasing presence of Chinese in Africa. The presence is seen as a vanguard of new military initiative of China in the region. It was also considered as a shift from the defensive strategy to offensive strategy of China. 14. It was asked whether a possibility of grand bargain existed with the Iranian regime. The answer was that the chances of grand bargain are very limited. However, an interim bargain was possible. The war with Iran would be very disastrous therefore it needs to be avoided. Freezing production of nuclear fissile

6 7 material by Iran and removal of imposed sanctions on it may help building trust and achieving that goal. Concluding Remarks by Dean FSS 15. The AVM appreciated the discussion. He said that new issues of common concern were raised. The Middle East must be studied very cautiously and without any bias because it has a larger impact on South Asia, specifically Pakistan. He invited the Ambassador Larocco to visit NDU again, to which the Ambassador acknowledged and desired to visit after November, this year. In the end, the AVM extended thanks to all the participants particularly, Vice Admiral (R) Iftikhar Ahmad Rao, Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, and Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder for sparing their time and participating in the discussion. He also extended his gratitude to Ambassador Larocco and his team for visiting NDU and sharing their views on issues of common concern.

7 8 Annex A Visit Amb James A. Larocco, Director NESA (18 May 2012) Sr. No Names Institutions NESA Delegations 1. Ambassador James A. Larocco Ambassador, NESA 2. Brig Gen Mathew Brand 3. Mr. Zachary J. Mayer Forward Office Director, Manama, Bahrain, NESA 4. Col John Wood Professor, NESA DVFs 5. Ambassador Ali Sarwar Nqvi Select DVF NDU 6. Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder NDU Faculty Advisor 7. V/Adm (Retd) Iftikhar Ahmad Rao FCS Select DVF NDU 8. Professor Dr. Perviaz Iqbal Dean FCS Cheema 9. Dr. Sarfraz Hussain Ansari Assistant Professor, Dept of GPP, FCS 10. Mr. Zohaib Hayat Lecturer IR 11. Dr. Rizwana Karim Abbasi Assistant Professor, Dept of S&NS, FCS 12 Ms. Maria S. Effendi Assistant Professor, Dept of PCS,FCS 13. Mr. Syed Amir Ali Lecturer, Dept of LMS, FCS 14. Mr. Ehtisham Adil Student FCS 15. Mr. Ameer Abdullah Khan Student FCS 16. Mr. Bilal Aslam Student FCS 17. Major Shams Uz Zaman Student FCS 18. Major Mukhtar Ahmed Student FCS 19. Mr. Saeed Ur Rehman Student FCS ISSRA Faculty, RAs and ROs

8 9 Annex B Visit Amb James A. Larocco, Director NESA (18 May 2012) Topic: Challenges and Opportunities for Regional and Western Powers & Cyber Security Chair: Dean FSS Program Time (Hrs) Activity 1100 Arrival Call on President NDU Presentations/ Discussion Initiator from NDU V/Adm (R) Iftikahr Ahmad Rao Initiator from NESA Ambassador James A. Larocco