Transatlantic Security Challenges The View from Washington. SOME THOUGHTS ON US and EUROPEAN SECURITY

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1 Transatlantic Security Challenges The View from Washington SOME THOUGHTS ON US and EUROPEAN SECURITY

2 WARNING SIGNS AHEAD? FOR THE BETTER PART OF SIX DECADES THERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE DOUBT OR DEBATE IN THE UNITED STATES ABOUT THE VALUE AND NECESSITY OF THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE BUT, THE BLUNT REALITY IS THAT THERE WILL BE A DWINDLING APPETITE AND PATIENCE IN THE US CONGRESS AND IN THE AMERICAN BODY POLITIC TO EXPEND INCREASINGLY PRECIOUS FUNDS ON BEHALF OF NATIONS THAT ARE APPARENTLY UNWILLING TO DEVOTE THE NECESSARY RESOURCES OR MAKE THE NECESSARY CHANGES TO BE SERIOUS AND CAPABLE PARTNERS IN THEIR OWN DEFENSE. - ROBERT GATES, JUNE 2011

3 EURO-ATLANTIC GOALS; ANOTHER VIEW It would be a grave mistake for Euro-Atlantic governments to neglect the security and stability of their own region. This great network is the bedrock of Western values of democracy, open markets and individual freedoms the goal must be to transform the entire Euro-Atlantic region into a genuine security community in which the use or threat of the use of military force to settle disputes disappears; in which a common front forms against the looming threats of this new century and the protracted conflicts that menace the region s peace are resolved. Only by pooling their efforts will these governments be able to meet this era s new security threats, all the more so given shrinking economic resources. - Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, Sam Nunn 1 February 2012

4 BUT ARE THINGS CHANGING? Given the many crises and instabilities in the world, we will of course have to shoulder higher payments for defense in the coming years. - Wolfgang Schaeuble German Finance Minister 2 March 2015 Such an (European Union) Army would help us build a common foreign and security policy and jointly assume the responsibilities of Europe in the world - Jean-Claude Juncker EU Commission President (on a common European Army) 8 March 2015

5 AGENDA US NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON 1945 COMPARED TO 2015 (TO-DO LISTS) WHAT HAS CHANGED: PAST FEW YEARS WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED: PAST FEW YEARS US VIEW OF TRANSATLANTIC CHALLENGES TODAY ROLE OF EUROPE IN US STRATEGY MEDITERRANEAN/RUSSIA LONG TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR US-EUROPE WHAT IS TO BE DONE? FINAL THOUGHTS

6 US NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS REBALANCE TO ASIA, WHILE ENFORCING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA COMMIT TO A RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER THAT PROMOTES GLOBAL SECURITY AND PROSPERITY AS WELL AS THE DIGNITY AND HUMAN RIGHTS OF ALL PEOPLE. ADVANCE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS, BUILD NEW COALITIONS TO COMBAT CORRUPTION, AND SUPPORT OPEN GOVERNMENTS AND SOCIETIES. COUNTER THE IDEOLOGY AND ROOT CAUSES OF VIOLENT EXTREMISM, NOT RELYING SOLELY ON MILITARY POWER. BARACK OBAMA, FEBRUARY 2015 US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

7 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON SO HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT? (US PRESIDENTS AND THEIR POLICIES MATTER)

8 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON TO DO LIST AFTER 1945 CONTAIN COMMUNISM IN THE SOVIET UNION (AND CHINA) REBUILD EUROPE AND JAPAN (MARSHALL PLAN) DEFEND EUROPE AGAINST THE WARSAW PACT ADVANCE FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY WHILE MAINTAINING STABILITY AND OPEN MARKETS FOR AMERICAN COMMERCE BUILD ALLIANCES OF DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES (NATO, SEATO, CENTO) ABANDON ISOLATIONISM IN FAVOR OF FORWARD DEPLOYED DEFENSE LEAD THE FREE WORLD, BUT CLEAR FOCUS ON NATO-EUROPE

9 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON TO DO LIST REDUCE BUDGET DEFICIT AND NATIONAL DEBT RESHAPE AND REDUCE SIZE OF ARMED FORCES, ESPECIALLY ARMY AND USMC CONTINUE CONSOLIDATION IN EUROPE REBALANCE NATIONAL SECURITY RESOURCES TO ASIA-PACIFIC MAINTAIN REDUCED PRESENCE IN EUROPE, PRESERVE NATO, BUT ACCEPT RISK MEET CHALLENGE OF PUTIN AND PUTINISM NATO ARTICLE V GUARANTEES, RAPID RESPONSE FORCE, REASSURANCE FOLLOW EUROPEAN LEAD? SANCTIONS DEFEAT VIOLENT EXTREMISM; DEGRADE AND DEFEAT ISIS DEAL WITH AFTERMATH OF ARAB SPRING ; DEFEND ISRAEL WORK WITH IRAN ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS RESPONSIBLY TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN MEET CHALLENGES OF WMD, TERRORISM, AND CYBER-WARFARE LEAD THE WORLD, BUT CLEAR FOCUS ON ASIA-PACIFIC

10 THE EUROPEAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT WHAT HAS CHANGED FROM WASHINGTON S VIEW? THE ACTION IS ELSEWHERE (DESPITE RUSSIA) RISE OF CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL AS WORLD POWERS RUSSIA AND EUROPE CRIMEA AND UKRAINE RUSSIAN RESURGENCE AND OUTRIGHT WAR A GROWING DEPENDENCY ON ENERGY EUROPEAN MEMBERS OF NATO IN THE EAST NEW COLD WAR? DECLINE IN TRADITIONAL MILITARY POWERS GERMANY/UNITED KINGDOM/FRANCE CHALLENGE OF MILLENARIAN ISLAM ON EUROPE S FLANK ISLAMIC STATE, AL NUSRAH FRONT, SYRIA, IRAQ, FOREIGN FIGHTERS POLITICAL ISLAM IN NATO ALLY TURKEY ARAB SPRING AND ITS FAILURE A RETURN OF AUTHORITARIANISM? NEW THREATS OUT OF CONTROL? (CYBER, CRIME, TRAFFICKING, EBOLA) DRAGONS AND SNAKES END OF THE POST-COLD WAR ERA

11 THE EUROPEAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED FROM WASHINGTON S VIEW? US REMAINS PREDOMINANT GLOBAL MILITARY POWER NATO ALLIANCE STILL KEY TO SECURITY IN EUROPE AND EURASIA EU SECURITY ARM VERY MUCH JUNIOR PARTNER CONTINUED COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN POST-2014 PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMS CONTINUE CONFLICT ZONES PERSIST ON THE FLANKS THE MIDDLE EAST (ISRAEL/PALESTINE, SYRIA, IRAQ) RUSSIA S PERIPHERY (UKRAINE, GEORGIA, THE ARCTIC) SOUTH CAUCASUS SOUTHEAST EUROPE (BiH, TRANSNISTRIA, SERBIA, KOSOVO) AFRICA: SOMALIA/SAHEL/LIBYA/SUDAN, AND UNGOVERNED SPACES TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM, DRUGS, CRIME, TRAFFICKING

12 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON SO WHERE ARE WE NOW?

13 WHERE IS EUROPE IN US STRATEGY? PRINCIPAL PARTNER IN SEEKING GLOBAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES NOW PRODUCERS OF SECURITY RELIABLE PARTNERS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN BUT WORRIES INTENSIFYING OVER DIMINISHING DEFENSE CAPABILITIES SECURITY ROLE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION NATO REMAINS FOUNDATION OF OUR APPROACH TO EUROPEAN SECURITY RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE? CONCERNS ABOUT SMART DEFENSE POOL, SHARE, SPECIALIZE REASSURANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST; BUT NO PERMANENT BASING REGIONAL SECURITY AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION FROZEN CONFLICTS IN W. BALKANS, S. CAUCASUS, E. UKRAINE ILLEGAL MIGRATION, COUNTERING ORGANIZED CRIME, CYBER SECURITY? EUROPE SEEN AS AN ECONOMY OF FORCE AREA, DESPITE RUSSIA ROTATIONAL FORCES, BMD, NAVAL AND AIR FORCES FOCUS ON ASIA-PACIFIC

14 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON MEDITERRANEAN SECURITY PRIORITIES MESSY REGION, BEST TO KEEP AT A DISTANCE; AVOID MILITARY ENTANGLEMENT EUROPE MUST STEP UP IN ITS OWN BACK YARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISRAEL ISRAEL REMAINS THE REGIONAL PRIORITY FOR THE U.S. COMMITMENT TO SURVIVAL OF THE JEWISH STATE PALESTINE TWO STATE SOLUTION JORDAN S STABILITY ESSENTIAL EGYPT/GAZA LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS U.S. TO MANAGE THE IRANIAN RELATIONSHIP EMERGING REGIONAL POWER ILLEGAL AND UNCONTROLLED MIGRATION FROM NORTH AFRICA ON EUROPE S SOUTHERN FLANK IS A EUROPEAN, NOT AN AMERICAN PROBLEM GROWING CHAOS (LIBYA, YEMEN, SYRIA, IRAQ, LEBANON) TO BE MANAGED BY U.S., PERHAPS WITH HELP OF IRAN

15 THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON RUSSIA SECURITY PRIORITIES THE CHALLENGE OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSIVE NATIONALISM IS PRIMARILY A EUROPEAN SITUATION TO MANAGE WITH US IN SUPPORT CRIMEA NOT RECOGNIZED AS PART OF RUSSIA NON-RECOGNITION OF AUTONOMOUS UKRAINIAN REPUBLICS THE BLACK SEA CANNOT BECOME A RUSSIAN LAKE SURVIVAL OF UKRAINE IS IN AMERICA S INTEREST BUT CANNOT RISK WAR OVER IT THE BILATERAL US-RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP NEW COLD WAR? (REEMERGENCE OF NUCLEAR THREAT?) DEATH OF THE RESET FOR NOW ENCOURAGE END TO CORRUPTION AND PUTINISM ; FAVOR REFORM, BUT INDIRECTLY DO NOT CLOSE THE DOOR TO COOPERATION NOW OR IN FUTURE LIKE IT OR NOT, RUSSIA WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN EUROPEAN SECURITY WHAT IS TO BE DONE? SANCTIONS AND SOFT POWER THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT ACTIVITIES SHORT OF WARFARE, UNCERTAINTY ON ARMING UKRAINE, BUT SOLID ON ART V FOLLOW EUROPEAN LEAD

16 EUROPEANS TAKE NOTE A CHANGING US VIEW OF WARFARE? LESSON LEARNED FROM AFGHANISTAN/IRAQ: DON T DO THIS AGAIN WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW YEARS MAKE 2008 OPTIMISM IN BOTH IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN LONG WAR ON TERROR PETRAEUS DOCTRINE NATO AND COUNTERINSURGENCY/STABILITY OPERATIONS NATION BUILDING AND DEMOCRACY LARGE COALITION GROUND FORCES TO SURGE AND WIN 2015 PESSIMISM -- DON T DO STUPID STUFF DISILLUSIONMENT WITH CORRUPTION AND DEMOCRACY WAR FATIGUE, AUSTERITY AND PLUNGING DEFENSE BUDGET DRONES, AIR/NAVAL POWER, HIGH TECH VS GROUND FORCES CHALLENGE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE SHOWS LIMITS OF MILITARY?

17 TRANSATLANTIC FUTURE: WASHINGTON LONGER TERM IMPLICATIONS NATIONAL FATIGUE AND INCREASED SKEPTICISM FOR US, LONGEST WAR IN US HISTORY WAS/IS AFGHANISTAN TREMENDOUS INVESTMENT IN LIVES AND TREASURE LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT BUT CASUALTIES, CORRUPTION INCREASED PUBLIC FOCUS ON PTSD, MENTAL ILLNESSES EUROPE IS FAR AWAY AND MUST TAKE A BIGGER ROLE IN DEFENSE QUESTIONS ON VALUE OF MILITARY FORCE SMART NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY DOES NOT RELY SOLELY ON MILITARY POWER - OBAMA WORRY ABOUT VIABILITY OF ALLIANCES GERMANY, UNITED KINGDOM NATO AND BURDEN SHARING CREEPING AMERICAN ISOLATIONISM?

18 SO WHAT IS TO BE DONE? EUROPE MUST ASSUME LARGER ROLE IN ITS OWN DEFENSE PREPARATION, AND NOT JUST WITH BUDGETS REINFORCE NATO FORMATIONS AND STATIONING COMMON EU ARMY? ALLOW PERMANENT STATIONING IN NATO S EAST? INVEST IN NEW TECHNOLOGY, LOGISTICS AND MOBILITY IDENTIFY THREATS, VITAL INTERESTS AND CORE VALUES THINK DEEPLY ABOUT EUROPEAN SECURITY AND ACCEPT THAT THE US WILL BE LOOKING PRIMARILY ELSEWHERE EDUCATE PUBLIC OPINION ON VALUE OF SECURITY PARTNERS IMPORTANT, BUT THEY MUST CONTRIBUTE, OR

19 SOMETHING FOR EUROPE TO THINK ABOUT YOU MAY NOT BE INTERESTED IN HISTORY, BUT HISTORY IS INTERESTED IN YOU. - TROTSKY

20 SOME FINAL THOUGHTS AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN WORLD AFFAIRS IS A LEGACY OF WORLD WAR II AND THE COLD WAR -- AND THEY ARE OVER EUROPE NOT LIKELY TO BE FOCUS OF FUTURE AMERICAN ATTENTION, REGARDLESS OF WHAT RUSSIA DOES LEADING FROM THE MIDDLE MAY SOON CHARACTERIZE US SECURITY RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE: NATO AND EU SECURITY BURDEN SHARING IS NOT JUST A CATCH PHRASE AMERICAN TRADITION OF ISOLATIONISM FREE RIDERS AND THE PACIFIC GENERATION INCREASED NATO RELIANCE ON PARTNER CAPACITY BUILDING, COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH AND SOFT POWER UNCONVINCING SECURITY/POWER DYNAMICS ALWAYS IN FLUX WITH RUSSIA WAITING IN THE WINGS

21 A TRANSATLANTIC RENAISSANCE? GERMANY TO TAKE THE LEAD? I DON T BELIEVE THAT GERMANY CAN SIMPLY CARRY ON AS BEFORE IN THE FACE OF US RETRENCHMENT FEDERAL PRESIDEHTJOACHIM GAUCH GERMANY MUST BE READY FOR EARLIER, MORE DECISIVE AND MORE SUBSTANTIVE ENGAGEMENT IN THE FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY SPHERE FOREIGN MINISTER STEINMEIER IS GERMANY READY TO LEAD? MY ANSWER IS: YES DEFENCE MINISTER URSULA VON DER LEYEN

22 OR.. LOOKING AHEAD, TO AVOID THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY OF COLLECTIVE MILITARY IRRELEVANCE, MEMBER NATIONS MUST EXAMINE NEW APPROACHES TO BOOSTING COMBAT CAPABILITIES. IF NOT, THERE IS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR A DIM, IF NOT DISMAL FUTURE FOR THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE SECRETARY OF DEFENCE ROBERT GATES ABSENT A ROBUST COMMITMENT FROM NATO S PRIMUS INTER PARES, NATO WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD IRRELEVANCE DR MATTHEW RHODES