Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topiccar

Transcription

1 Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topiccar Tamer Afifi United Nations University Insitute for Environment and Human Security Bonn

2 Environmental migrants No agreement 1985 UN-Environment Program (El-Hinnawi): " those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption... that jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life."

3 Environmental migrants No agreement IOM working definition (2007): Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad

4 Environmental migrants No agreement Environmentally Motivated Migrants who may leave a steadily deteriorating environment to preempt the worst. Environmentally Forced Migrants who have to leave to avoid inevitable and grave consequences of environmental degradation Environmental Emergency Migrants who flee the worst of an environmental impact to save their lives.

5 Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara

6 social (Forced) human displacement cultural

7 Main outcomes: 1. Food security is a key factor 2. Climatic/environmental problems are often root causes 3. Most of the migration is internal 5. What is national is becoming international migration 6. What is seasonal/temporary is becoming long-term/permanent migration

8 Gravity model: - The impact of environmental degradation on migration between countries pair wise global environmental factors. - Other 13 geographic, economic, political, social, historical and cultural indicators countries.

9

10 Horn of Africa Study

11 Horn of Africa Study Key findings 1. Discernible shifts in weather in the home countries over the past years. 2. Severe impacts on farming and livestock husbandry in the homelands of the refugees 3. Weather conditions as a multiplier/magnifier of pre-existing conflicts in countries of origin. 4. Wide range of traditional and innovative adaptation strategies in situ. 5. Human movements were only the last resort. 6. Movements due to pure climatic issues were rather internal and temporary.

12 Partners and Donors With the support of: and 12

13 Geographic Diversity: 8 Countries 8 case studies Duration: Source: CARE France 13 Fieldwork Summer Winter 2012

14 14 Case Study Reports

15 Project objectives & scope OBJECTIVES 1. To understand how rainfall variability, food security and human mobility interact today 2. To understand how these factors might interact in coming decades as the impact of climate change begins to be felt more strongly 3. To work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall variability, food/livelihood insecurity, and migration. 15

16 Field Research Methodology* Expert interviews Participatory Research Approach Household surveys Ranking of coping strategies, Thailand. Source: Sakdapolrak, 2008 Resource map, Tanzania. Source: Afifi, 2012 *See Rademacher-Schulz et al. (2012) Seasonal calendar, Peru. Source: Milan,

17 Rademacher-Schulz, Christina, Tamer Afifi, Koko Warner, Thérèse Rosenfeld, Andrea Milan, Benjamin Etzold and Patrick Sakdapolrak (2012): Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. An approach for generating empirical evidence. Intersections No. 10. Bonn: UNU-EHS. 17

18 Global Findings based on 8 case studies Source: Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow,

19 4 household profiles Migration improves HH resilience Economy: poor Adaptation options: access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political), Education: Children have 3-5 years more education than parents Migrant: early 20s, single; temporal migration Remittances: education, livelihood diversification, health Migration used to survive, but not flourish Economy: land scarce Adaptation options: less access to assets & institutions for support Education: Children have same education level as parents Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season Remittances: Success in obtaining food or money to buy food Migration erosive coping strategy Economy: landless Adaptation options: few adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food Migration not an option: trapped populations Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, female -headed HH Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration Education: More HHs have low or no education / skill levels Migrant: not feasible Remittances: none. Abandoned / trapped populations Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors

20 Normalised difference rate of vulnerable migration Potential future relationships among rainfall variability, food security and migration (Tanzania) Scenario 1 (drying) Scenario 2 (wetting) Scenario 3 (extreme wetting) Scenario 4 (extreme drying) Source: Dr. Christopher Smith, 2012 UNU-EHS cdsmith@ehs.unu.edu 20

21 Conclusions General perception of climatic changes in the form of rainfall variability Negative impacts on agricultural production (food and livelihood insecurity) Migration characteristics Migration in response to climatic problems/risks (nature of relationship) Household characteristics matter Future pressure on rainfall-dependent livelihoods and its impact on human mobility 21 11/4/2013

22 Warner, Koko, Tamer Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith, and Alex De Sherbinin (2012): Where the Rain Falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration. Global Policy Report. Bonn: UNU-EHS. 22

23 Thank you for your attention Contact: Dr Tamer Afifi Associate Academic Officer UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn Tel afifi@ehs.unu.edu