Demographic transition and international migration

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1 Demographic transition and international migration Philippe Fargues IXth Migration Summer School Theories, Methods and Policies June 2013

2 Demographic transition and international migration The impact of international migration on demographic transition Demographic convergence in host societies Models transmitted to home societies Wider implications The impact of demographic transition on international migration Unprecedented availability for migration From migrants with a family to single migrants From remittances- to human capital-driven migration High immigration and low fertility in post-transitional populations Conservative view: the fear of being replaced with aliens Liberal view: playing demographic complementarities Iconoclastic view: Migrants as conveyors of values

3 A framework of interaction between international migration and demographic transition Part I Ideational remittances International migration Fertility transition Part II Changing life cycle

4 Figure 1: Ideational remittances and patterns of family building Initial patterns of family building in the source country Resulting patterns of family building in the source country Flows of migrants Flows of ideas Demographic adjustment to the host country

5 Stabdardised index Figure 3: Birth rates and remittances in Morocco ,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1, Birth rates Remittances (current prices)

6 Standardised Index Figure 4: Remittances and Birth Rates in Egypt ,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2, )Remittances (1970 Prices Birth Rates

7 Table 2: Correlation Coefficients between Emigration, Education and Fertility in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey around 2000 Country Egypt Morocco Turkey Emigration x Fertility Education x Fertility Emigration x Education / Source: Fargues 2006

8 Percentage of immigrant stocks Figure 4: Age patterns of male international migration Selected countries and periods 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Argentina US 2000Age at arrival US in 2005 the country Canada 2001 Spain 2001

9 Figure 5: Proportion of never-married men at the mean age at migration, by region and year (%) Source: w w.un.org/esa/population/publications/wmd2008/main.html 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10, Arab states Sub- Saharan Africa Latin America and the Carribean South Asia

10 Number of children Migration Figure 6: Mean number of children ever-born to migrant men according to the stage of demographic transition Source: Author's calculation using UN age specific fertility patterns 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 Before migration After migration 2,0 1,0 0, Pre-transition Transition 1 Transition 2 Post-transition

11 Table 4: Number of children ever-born to male migrants according to the stage of demographic transition Stage of demographic transition Transition 1 Transition 2 Pretransition Posttransition Children already born at the time of migration Children still to be born after migration 2,5 1,9 1,2 0,6 4,0 3,4 1,4 1,0 Total 6,5 5,3 2,6 1,6 Source: Author's calculation using UN age specific fertility patterns a.xls

12 Average number of years of schooling Figure 7a: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of birth - United States ,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 India Egypt Algeria China Philippines Pakistan Lebanon Morocco Bangladesh Senegal Non-M igrants Mexico 5, Year of birth

13 Average number of years of schooling Figure 7b: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of birth - Spain ,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 3,0 Mexico Non-Migrants Lebanon India Philippines Egypt China Bangladesh Algeria Pakistan Morocco Senegal 1, Year of birth

14 Average number of years of schooling Figure 7c: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of residence ,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 US* Canada Italy Spain* 7,0 5, Year of birth

15 Index, base 100 in 1993 Index, base 100 in 1980 Average amount remitted per unit of human capital Morocco 1993 to 2005 Turkey 1980 to Stock of emigrants Remittances (current$) Stock of human capital Stock of emigrants Remittances (current$) Stock of human capital

16 Graph 3: Percentage Non-Western in Western European Populations According to Ethnic Projections England Germany Netherlands Norway 10 Denmark Source: Coleman, 2006

17 Age Group Graph 5: Population of the Netherlands by Origin and Age 1st January to to to to to to to to to 15 0 to 5 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Dutch background Non-western foreign background Source: Statistics Netherlands -

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