Reducing Vulnerability through Reintegration: The Case of the Syrian Refugees in Jordan.

Transcription

1 The University of San Francisco USF Scholarship: a digital Gleeson Library Geschke Center Master's Theses Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects Spring Reducing Vulnerability through Reintegration: The Case of the Syrian Refugees in Jordan. Felipe Hernan Rodriguez University of San Francisco, frodriguezvillalta@dons.usfca.edu Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Rodriguez, Felipe Hernan, "Reducing Vulnerability through Reintegration: The Case of the Syrian Refugees in Jordan." (2017). Master's Theses This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects at USF Scholarship: a digital Gleeson Library Geschke Center. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of USF Scholarship: a digital Gleeson Library Geschke Center. For more information, please contact repository@usfca.edu.

2 Reducing Vulnerability through Reintegration: The Case of the Syrian Refugees in Jordan. Key Words: Refugees, Reintegration, Vulnerability, Restoration. Felipe Rodríguez Department of Economics University of San Francisco 2130 Fulton St. San Francisco, CA May 2017 Abstract: The Syrian Civil War has claimed at least two hundred thousand lives, with over four million people having now fled Syria. Of those, about six hundred thousand have registered with the UNHCR in Jordan, with an estimated eighty thousand others living in Jordan s Zaatari Camp. In view of the foregoing, this research attempts to analyze the vulnerability of Syrian Refugees living in Jordan in two very different environments: the Zaatari Camp and non-camp communities. We conduct a covariate matching analysis to compare the differences in socioeconomic conditions and well-being among the heads of Syrian households. Our results suggest that notwithstanding the limited labor opportunities for Syrian families within Zaatari Camp, the variety and quality of attentions within the camp environment provides a platform that helps them cope with some of the uncertainties and challenges caused by the displacement from their country of origin, while they seek full reintegration in Jordan. The author wish to thank Fatima Bukhamseen and Dr. Ayat Nashwan. Our research assistants in Zaatari Camp: Marwan, Rami, Ahmed, Khaled and Tarek. Our research assistants in Irbid: Ibrahim and Hosam. And all the people from the NGOs that gave us their support during our field research project in Jordan.

3 1. Introduction Since the Syrian Civil War started in 2011, nearly six and a half million Syrians have fled from their cities of origin seeking refuge in the neighboring countries and within Syria itself. Approximately six million Syrians have been internally displaced, and about five million have fled to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt and Jordan (Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, 2016). Even though the end of the Syrian civil war is the only true solution to the Syrian Refugee Crisis, the difficulties that the host communities and the refugee communities face, require solutions that help, to both, mitigate the impact of the increasing waves of Syrian refugees into the region, and prevent a further deterioration in the living conditions of the refugee and host community. Regional Response In December of 2012, the governments of the aforementioned neighboring countries partnered with more than 200 agencies to launch the first Regional Response Plan. The plan was aimed at designing and implementing programs to prevent large numbers of Syrian families from falling into poverty and alleviating the suffering of the most vulnerable families (Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan, 2016). Jordan is one of the few countries in the middle east that do not have any major internal conflict since the eruption of the Arab Spring (Carrion, 2015). Jordan s political stability, coupled with its proximity to Syria has made it one of the countries most populated by Syrian refugees since the breakout of the Syrian Civil War. By 2015, more than six thousand Syrians registered with the UNHCR in Jordan. However, there is evidence that there are hundreds of thousands of Syrians living in Jordan that have not yet registered with the UNHCR. In fact, the Syrian population in Jordan accounts for ten percent of the total population of this country before the breakout of the Syrian Civil War (Amnestry International, 2013). Jordan Within Jordan, Syrian families live in two different environments, the Refugee Camp communities and the non-camp communities. The main difference between these two 1

4 environments is that the non-camp communities offer access to Jordan s labor markets, thereby granting them direct contact with the host community. The Refugees Camps in contrast, offer treatments and programs to reduce the vulnerability of Syrian families in a precluded environment where only Syrians are allowed to live. As of today, most of the Syrian families in Jordan live in non-camp communities, facing a situation of instability caused by both, the variation in the humanitarian stance of the Jordanian Government and the increase in the demand for development opportunities by the continuous waves of Syrian families (Achilli, 2015). In Jordan, there are five refugee camps for Syrians: Zaatari, Azraq, King Abdullah Park, Cyber City and Zarqa. The Zaatari Refugee Camp, which opened in July of 2012 is the largest and most well-known refugee camp and has turned into the second largest refugee camp in the world (Ledwith, Zaatari: The Instant City, 2014). Zaatari Camp is managed by both the Jordanian Government and the UNHCR. The NGOs that work in conjunction with the UNCHR provide aid programs for the Syrian families, defining five strategic priorities: protection, health, basic needs and livelihoods, education and sanitation. The Jordanian Government in contrast, oversees security provision services in the camp, while also monitors access to the camp (UNCHR, 2017). Since the Zaatari Camp was established, at least fourhundred thousand refugees have lived there at some point. At the moment, around eight thousand refugees reside within the twelve districts of the camp. The Zaatari Camp stopped accepting new arrivals in April 2014 when Azraq Camp was established, allowing the organizations to diagnose the most urgent needs on the existing population, define priorities and design interventions according to these needs (REGIONAL REFUGEE & RESILIENCE PLAN, 2016). Zaatari Camp The organizations that work in the Zaatari Camp registers all refugees upon arrival in the camp, with the documents paving way for the refugees to access assistance from these organizations. In September of 2013, they started to provide a voucher of U.S $8.50 that have been distributed twice a week, while other agencies such as the World Food Program provide free food on a weekly basis. In terms of education opportunities, the NGO s are responsible 2

5 for the construction of schools, while classes are taught by Jordanian teachers that are sometimes assisted by Syrian teachers (Ledwith, Zaatari: The Instant City, 2014). In terms of employment opportunities, the UNHCR s 2014 report estimated an employment rate of sixty-five percent in the camp, with most of the employment opportunities in the camps being created by business initiatives of the Syrian families. Furthermore, the working group of organizations have been able to employ just fifteen-hundred refugees at an hourly wage of U.S. $1.40. Syrian families that were living in the camp had the opportunity to move to urban areas in Jordan through a bailout permit that was granted, conditional on the refugee receiving a sponsorship from a Jordanian citizen and subsequent payment of the corresponding fee. After November of 2014, the Jordanian Government started to reinforce this policy by denying these documents to those refugees that left the camp illegally, with some of the refugees sent back to the camps, thus restricting the possibility to move to non-camp communities (Francis, 2015). Additionally, the situation in non-camp communities does not necessarily represent a better environment for Syrian families. The Syrian Refugee Crisis aggravates the ongoing refugee crisis that Jordan has faced for more than seventy years, hosting the second largest share of refugees in the world (Francis, 2015).With the protracted conflict in Syria and a persistent underfunded humanitarian assistance, the Jordanian Government had continued to implement restrictions to those policies that were intended to provide protection to Syrian families in non-camp communities (Francis, 2015). Non-camp Communities The Jordanian Government has maintained a humanitarian stance towards Syrian refugees, however, this stance started to weaken in 2014 due to several reasons, such as, meager resources, lack of employment and the large increase of the population of refugees in the urban areas since 2013 due to the aggravation of the war. As of 2015, all non-jordanian with legal residency need to have a work permit that can only be issued if the employer pays a fee and proves that the prospective job requires skills that cannot be found in the Jordanian labor markets. According to the UNHCR s 2014 surveys, only 1% of Syrian households visited had 3

6 a member who possessed a work permit in Jordan, as a consequence, 47% of Syrian households paid employment come from children and 45% of Syrian refugees living in Jordan have faced protracted displacement lasting more than five years (Achilli, 2015). Jordan is a relatively young country and even though it is not a signatory country of the 1951 Refugee Convention or it s 1967 Protocol (International Labor Organization, 2015), it has been hosting refugees since 1950, after the creation of the Israeli State. It has faced two refugee crises in the last decade and its constitution prohibits the refoulement of political refugees (Chatelard, 2010). As a matter of fact, the only directive in Jordan in regards of refugees, is the 1998 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which allows the UNHCR to determine refugee status of asylum seekers. However, Jordanian labor laws do not protect workers that are going through a vulnerable situation such as refugees and asylum seekers (International Labor Organization, 2015). In practice, due to the fact that most of the Syrians that are living in Jordan came from rural areas, most of them have skill sets that are more useful in farming related jobs. Therefore, they often compete with the low-skilled Jordanian workers in the labor markets, thus increasing the probability of their work permits being frequently denied, and consequently leaving them with a solitary choice of working in the informal sector without protection (International Labor Organization, 2015). More so, the refugees are mandated to obtain a UNHCR asylum seeker certificate and a Ministry of Interior card to access assistance and public services in non-camp communities. For instance, the Jordanian Government allows the Syrian children to receive public education. However, there has been an increase in the enforcement of restrictions to obtain these legal documents. As matter of fact, post November 2014 witnessed the emergence of Syrian families losing access to subsidized public health services. Due to consequence of the lack of obligations under the international law, the refugee communities in Jordan may be susceptible to some legally vulnerable conditions. (Francis, 2015). The stance of Jordan towards the numerous refugee crises in the region are tightly intertwined with its political and economic goals as an upper-middle income country that is poorly endowed with natural resources in the context of the Arab World (Chatelard, 2010). Before the breakout of the Syrian Civil War, Jordan was already facing an economic crisis due 4

7 to the uprising in different Arabic countries. The Jordanian economy has always been dependent of on economies in the Middle East, with the uprisings in different Arabic countries considerably affecting the levels of importable goods to Jordan (Francis, 2015). Generally, the past six years has been conspicuous for significantly decreased levels of humanitarian aid and an increasing burden of the Refugee Crisis on the Jordanian Government. Additionally, the very few resources that the Syrian families were able to bring to Jordan have been totally depleted or substantially reduced. As result, Syrian families are increasingly reliant on more daily assistance or negative coping mechanism. It is then in our interest to determine which environment is best suited for Syrian families to reduce their vulnerability and if it is even possible to restore their previous socioeconomics conditions. We conducted a comparative analysis of Syrian families living in non-camp communities and the Zaatari Camp. Through matching techniques, we were able to match Syrian families based on their previous socioeconomic conditions to control for the effect they may have on their current socioeconomic conditions and leaving their place of residence in Jordan as main factor that affects their ability to reduce their vulnerability and restore their livelihoods. Therefore, the main question we are attempting to answer in this research is: Are Syrian families living in non-camp communities less vulnerable than those living in camp communities? Our results suggest that even though Syrian families living in non-camp communities are less likely to experience an income shock, when they face an income shock they would be less likely to fall under negative coping mechanisms. Even though there is not an actual policy that leads to the reintegration of the Syrian Refugees, the closest status to reintegration has been the option of living in non-camp communities. Through matching techniques, we attempt to measure the effect of living in non-camp communities as a proxy for reintegration. In view of the foregoing, we employ noncamp communities as a proxy for reintegration. It is also important to mention that our results are applied only to Syrian refugees living in Zaatari Camp and cannot be used to draw any conclusions about the situation of the Syrian refugees that live in the rest of the Jordanian refugee camps. 5

8 2. Literature Review 2.1 Refugees, displacement and migration According to the United Nations Organization, International Migrants are all those who are living outside of their country of origin, regardless of their motives to move. In that sense, international migrants are those who have voluntarily moved across international borders. Displacement refers to that situation in which people are forced to move from their places of origin, due to armed conflict or natural disasters. Refugees, according to the 1951 United Nations Refugee Convention and the 1967 protocol, are all those people who escape from their country of origin, due to a legitimate fear of persecution driven by causes such as, race, religion, nationality, cultural identity or political opinion. In addition, refugee conventions, such as the 1969 Organizations of the African Unity Convention and 1984 Cartagena Declaration, define refugees as those people who have left their countries of origin for reasons of external aggression and foreign occupation (International Labor Organization, 2015). It is important to mention, that although there are different motives for moving out of one s country of origin, often times people face the same risk, whether they emigrated from countries of dire situations or for economic opportunity. In some situations, they might be equally vulnerable to particular difficulties in their pursuit of improving upon their previous living conditions. Moreover, (Cernea, 2000) argue that there are two types of policies in regards to reintegration. For agencies such as the World Bank, a successful reintegration is one that not only restores the previous living conditions of migrants, but also, if possible, improves their previous situation. In contrast, the UNHCR, argues that reintegration is not successful in improving the situation of migrants until they are successfully repatriated in their countries of origin. In this regard, we consider appropriate to cover to some extent literature related to migration; and even more, because in our interviews we identify some Syrian families that had a situation more similar to a labor migrant than a refugee. Those families decided to move to Jordan in the very beginning of the Syrian conflict, but their main intentions were to preserve and protect the well-established business partnerships they had in Jordan. Some of these families, 6

9 in fact noted that their socioeconomic conditions improved or did not change at all following the breakout of the Syrian Civil War. 2.2 Migration Theories International migration theories have tried to explain migration by putting different relevance on the factors that are taken into account by migrants at a micro-level and those that govern the international dynamics of migration. The Neoclassic economic theory argues that families are income maximizing units that compare wages and employment conditions between countries and their corresponding migration costs. The New Economics of Migration goes further by expanding the analysis of the conditions outside the labor markets and conceptualizing migration as the decision to minimize risk and overcome capital constraints for production activities. In contrast, the Dual Labor Market Theory and the World System Theory do not consider microeconomic dynamics, but instead focus their attention on macrolevel behaviors. The Dual Labor Market Theory establishes a strong causal relationship of migration with the current structural demands of the industrial economies, while the World System Theory uses a conceptualization of migration that is a result of the penetration of markets at an international level. Even though these theories have differences in their identification of factors that influence the patterns of migration, they are not necessarily mutually exclusive to each other. Rather, these theories together can explain the decision taken on a micro-level within the household, and the structural forces that governs the labor markets at a national and international level (Douglas S. Massey, 1993). Micro-theory of Migration In the micro-level theory proposed by (Todaro, 1969) and (Sjaastad, 1962), the decision of migrating is driven by a cost-benefit calculation, based on their estimation of the expected discount net returns. 7

10 The expected net return to migration is estimated at the moment before the departure, and it depends on the probability of not being deported, the probability of finding a job, the income earned if the migrant finds a job, the probability of having a job in the country of origin, the income earned if the migrant has a job in the country of origin, and the total amount of costs of migration. In this model, migrants will actually migrate if the expected net returns are greater in the potential destination, contrasted with those from the place of origin. Human capital characteristics determine the probability of having greater expected return in the potential destination, technologies can reduce the cost of migration and, again, other markets do not influence the decision of migrating. Migration in the context of the Syrian Refugee Crisis is a privilege, however as mentioned before, some of the Syrian families from our sample made their decision to move to Jordan based on a cost-benefit calculation. Further, evidence suggests that some of the refugees have migrated multiple times within the Jordanian borders six years after their original migration to the country. Thus, some refugees migrated from the urban areas to the refugee camps and vice versa, despite the restrictions implemented by the Jordanian Government, with their decisions to migrate being highly influenced by cost-benefit calculations. The New Economics of Migration The New Economics of Migration, proposed by (Stark, 1984) and (Bloom, 1985), looks at a comparative novel concept of migration, since it suggest that migration decisions are not decisions taken by individuals, but by groups of people that are in some way related to each other. In this way, migrants are able to minimize even more of the expected risks and break the constraints they have to face because of market discrepancies. In this model, differences in wages between countries do not influence the decision of migrating. Governments can promote migration by implementing restrictions in the capital and insurance markets and not only through changes in the labor markets, but also by making changes in the income distribution. 8

11 For instance, most of the people in our sample came from the Governorate of Daraa, this is because of two things. First, Daraa is considered one of the first places where the Syrian Civil War started. Second, Daraa is very close to the Jordanian borders. However, we also found people from northern Governorates of Syria in our sample. Most of the families from these places, however, decided to move because they already had existing social networks in Jordan. 2.3 Refugee Theories As opposed to migrants, refugees are not living in a foreign country by choice. This fact affects their well-being and should be considered by policy makers in host communities. In this section, we will go over the literature focused on the general characteristics of refugees to identify those aspects that affect their well-being in the host communities. Furthermore, as our goal is to analyze the situation of the Syrian refugees, we attempt to develop an understanding of refugee camps in host countries. Refugees: before and after their journey As stated by (Kunz, 1973), there are two types of mobility of refugees, anticipatory refugee movement and acute refugee movement. An anticipatory refugee is one who perceives the start of a new period with an increase of danger at an early stage, maybe even before a potential crisis occurs. For this type of refugee, the process of departure from their place of origin is similar to the process that a voluntary migrant has to go through. Since they are able to prepare for the departure, they are also able to bring resources and travel with the entire family unit. In contrast, acute refugee movement is produce by a sudden shock that pushes people to flee. This shock can be the start of a war, new policies and also the propagation of panic. In this kind of situation, refugees do not have any plan or strategy to leave their place of origin. In other words, the urgency to escape is greater, and the decision to flee is mainly based on an attempt to prevent any harm and not exactly the pursuit of a better future. In this context, it is imperative to note that these two types of refugees differ in more ways than their mere socioeconomic and demographic conditions. Anticipatory refugees are often well educated and have better socioeconomic conditions than those with acute movements. 9

12 Psychological characteristics, age and the changes in the environment of the place of origin also play a key role on the timeframe under which refugees decide to leave their country. As mentioned before, within our sample, we find refugees that were able to anticipate the breakout of the Syrian Civil War and their decision to migrate to Jordan was according to a labor migrant. In the same way, these refugees had on average better socioeconomic conditions than those who did not anticipate the sudden shock of the war. Hence, refugees should not be considered as a homogenous group, there is certainly heterogeneity present within and between these groups. Over time, refugees that migrated in the early stages might be very different from those that migrated later. (Kunz, 1973), argues that hosting societies should be aware of the heterogeneity of these groups, especially on their perception of threat and danger. Thus, there is an obvious difference between anticipatory and acute refugees. While anticipatory are able to perceive and respond earlier to danger, some acute refugees may have been less risk averse and be reluctant to leave at an early stage. (Keller, 1975), also shows evidence that those who leave in the later stages are more likely to have feelings of guilt, vulnerability and aggressiveness. Furthermore, regardless of the type of refugee, (Kunz, 1973) identifies four stages of the process of adjustment for a refugee: the initial arrival period of the first few months, the first and second years, the next four to five years and a decade or more. In the first stage, refugees will have to get used to a new reality and their living conditions will decrease noticeably. During the second stage, refugees tend to exhibit improvements and even the restoration of their previous living conditions. Refugees are often able to change jobs, continue with their education and move to an area that is more densely populated by fellow refugees. In the third stage, refugees have accomplished most of the possible restoration, which can result in an increase of feelings of resignation, since at this stage they are more aware of the potential success that they have at the hosting community. By the fourth stage, the family unit has achieved certain stability, however, most of the time the final outcome for refugees within the community is a lower status compared to the local population. Because the Syrian Civil War has lasted six years, we were only able to observe the effects of the first three stages in the conditions of the refugees. In general, we observed that the date 10

13 of arrival to Jordan is an important factor to take into account in our analysis. Those families that have lived in Jordan the longest have achieved most of the possible restoration. Furthermore, as shown by (Azevedo, 2016), most of the Syrian Refugees reintegrated in Turkey have been able to improve their socioeconomic conditions over the span of four years without significant impact on the poverty rates of the hosting country, notwithstanding the high poverty rates that was hitherto prevalent among the refugees. Analogous to their Turkish counterparts, most of the Syrian Refugees heads of household in our sample were employed in the informal sector, in this scenario the impact that the refugee communities can have on the labor markets may not be negative or at best, it would not be significant. (Verwimp, 2015) on the other hand, argues that it is important and imperative to put more emphasis on the situation of the country of origin of the refugees. Since many of the challenges faced by the host country are intrinsically related with conditions faced by those refugees that were able to go back to their countries of origin. In other words, the increase or decrease of the refugee population in the neighboring countries is highly related with the intensity of the crisis or conflict in their country of origin. For instance, the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan is not only a result of the Syrian Civil War, but also a consequence of the uprisings in different Arab countries and their corresponding refugee crisis. The humanitarian stance in Jordan not only respond to the urgent needs of developing opportunities for the Syrian Refugees, but also to maintain in some way the stability in the region. Refugee camps In some of the hosting countries such as Jordan, there are two types of environment for refugees, non-camp and camp communities. In the refugee camps as defined by (Murphy, 1955), refugees tend to realize what they have lost, even though the isolation of this environment from the hosting society gives them a feeling of independence and allow for the provision of treatments and interventions that are specially designed to ameliorate their traumas and facilitate basic goods and services. As mentioned before, Zaatari Camp is an environment design to reduce the vulnerability of Syrian Refugees through the access to the programs of the organizations and institutions that work in the camp. 11

14 Some of the refugee camps can have internal goods and labor markets as posited by (Werker, 2007), who identified the main characteristics of the markets in the camps. Most of the markets allocated inside the refugee camps tend to have access to the commercial networks of the host country, the production is mainly agricultural, there are several businesses, but they are of small size. There is a commercial area where most of the business are concentrated and the only source of restriction for these markets are the policies implemented by the host country. In the case of the Zaatari Camp, there are two main sources of employment, the business started by the refugees and the jobs offered by the NGOs to those refugees with better labor skills. (Werker, 2007), also emphasizes the importance of the humanitarian assistance from international organization in fulfilling the basic need of refugees. He also highlights that in the context where the host country and the international organizations are not able to provide basic needs for refugees in an isolated environment, refugees tend to seek for development alternatives outside the refugee camps, regardless of the risks that this might imply. In Zaatari Camp, the limited labor opportunities offered by the camp can offer means that many heads of households escape every day from the camp to seek jobs in the neighboring towns despite, notwithstanding the risk of being caught by the Jordanian authorities. Reintegration trough Resettlement After their experience in the refugee camps, the refugees discover a new land with mixed feelings of hope and trauma. As stated by (Stein, 1981), refugees have great expectations of the opportunities offered by the hosting society, chief among them being the recovery of their previous socio-economic condition. However, the reality is that developing countries are hosting most of the refugee population in the world, hence, the governments of the host countries are most often unable to cover the needs of the refugee population and rely on the support of international organizations to provide the required assistance. Refugees also face difficulties to adapt their patterns of behavior, and sometime fail to allocate his resources in a new economic structure. 12

15 (Stein, 1981) also argues that there are three basic elements in the analysis of reintegration: the first is the model of reintegration; the second is the refugee community and its ethnic characteristics; and the third is the nature of the reintegration process. Furthermore, (Gordon, 1964), defines three models of assimilation: First, the host-conformity model which states that refugees must adapt their behavior in order to behave just like the native citizens. Second, the melting pot model, which defines reintegration as a process in which native and refugee population merge into a new and better community. Finally, the cultural pluralism, in which refugees adopt certain patterns of behavior but also preserve the mainly aspects of their culture. Lastly, reintegration as defined by (Eisenstadt, 1953), consists in four stages: first, the adoption of language, norms and customs; second, the learning process of knowing how to behave in the environment; third the creation of a new identity; and fourth the increase in the participation in the institutions of the hosting society. 2.4 Vulnerability as the risk to be poor As stated by (Cernea, 2000), a successful experience of reintegration is one that allow the targeted population to not only restore their previous socioeconomic conditions, but also, if possible, to improve them in the host society. Jordan, as an upper-middle income country (where refugees represents more than 20% of the population), has increasing limitations to guarantee the restoration of the previous socioeconomic conditions of Syrian Refugees. In fact, most of the Syrian refugees do not have enough economic resources to cover their basic needs. In this section, we attempt to provide an overview of multidimensional concepts of poverty and vulnerability. Poverty In general, poverty is considered as a deficit in the physical and mental well-being of individual produced by a lack of resources (Peña, In press). This basic and general understanding of poverty implies that there must be a certain threshold that determines what levels of material resources assure physical and mental well-being. One of the first efforts to measure poverty 13

16 using a certain threshold was conducted by (Booth, 1889), where he classified poor and nonpoor people depending on whether or not their income surpassed a certain threshold. Nowadays, poverty is generally classified as having less than a certain threshold, having less than others and the feeling of lacking enough material resources to live (Hagenaars, 1988). But these general concepts of poverty have been criticized because they do not take into account the multidimensional nature of poverty. For instance, (Sen, 1981), argues that these conceptualizations do not take into account the presence of heterogeneity among people. In addition, there is evidence of the difficulties that come from determining a minimum of material resources and an adequate basket that guarantees a proper level of well-being. Vulnerability Vulnerability, defined within the framework of poverty alleviation proposed by (Chaudhuri, 2002), is considered as the risk that a non-poor household will fall under the poverty line, or the risk that a poor household will remain poor. (Cunningham, 2000), on the other hand, define vulnerability as the level of exposure to adverse shocks that reduce welfare taking into account the initial distribution of welfare. Furthermore, (Deaton, 1992 ), argues that vulnerability depends on factors such as, wealth, current income, expected income and the ability to maintain the same levels of consumption in the occurrence of income shocks. In general, in the models described above it is necessary to know the expected levels of consumption in different time periods of the same population. However, as pointed out by (Chaudhuri, 2002), it is difficult to compile data of such quality. In contrast, cross-sectional household surveys are more common. Therefore, (Chaudhuri, 2002), proposes a modification of the general concept of vulnerability that can be analyze with cross-sectional data allowing for analysis and estimations that are equally accurate, this modification makes assumptions related to the unobservable heterogeneity in the future levels of consumption for households that are essentially identical. These assumptions are summarized in the following equation: (1) lnch = XhB + Eh 14

17 Where Ch is per capita consumption expenditure, Xh is a set of observable household characteristics, B is a vector of parameters and Eh is a disturbance terms with a mean zero that captures shocks that determine the difference in the consumptions levels for households that are essentially identical. Therefore, this equation assumes that there are not unexpected structural changes in the economy and that the change in the levels of consumption depends solely on the unpredictable idiosyncratic shocks at a household level. 3. Methodology 3.1 The Data The data collection was executed through a firsthand survey (Appendix 41), that was administered from May to July of 2016 using heads of households from Syrian families living in Jordan. We ran a pilot over a period of three weeks to adapt our survey to the specific situation of the Syrian refugees and interviewed refugee families from Iraq and The Palestine living in non-camp and camp communities for comparison. In the first phase of the data collection process, we conducted surveys in the Jordanian cities with higher presence of Syrian families, such as, Amman, Irbid, Zarqa and Al-Mafraq. In the second phase, we conducted surveys in Zaatari Refugee Camp. In the latter phase, we were able to make our sample selection through stratified random sampling. With the support of the UNHCR, we had access to a list of the families that live in the camp, including their identification number and the district in which they lived. From this list, we randomly selected 25 families from each of the 12 districts of Zaatari Refugee Camp. The survey used in this research is divided into eight sections. The first section captures the demographic characteristics of the family unit in Jordan. The second section captures the composition of the family unit in Jordan. The third section contains information about the different environments where the Syrian families have lived, with keen interest in knowing their main dwellings dating back to their arrival. The fourth section captures the level of 15

18 wealth that the Syrian families used to have in Syria and the level of wealth they have in Jordan. The fifth section contains questions about the levels of income, expenses, employment status and labor conditions in both Jordan and Syria. The sixth section captures their psychological well-being in terms of happiness and optimism. The seventh section captures the perceived situation of security of the heads of household in both Jordan and Syria. The eighth section captures the presence of income shocks and the adoption of vulnerable coping behaviors by the family in the last month. 3.2 Selection into non-camp and camp communities Since the start of the civil war in 2011, those Syrian families that attempted to access Jordan through formal borders were registered with the UNHCR and then transferred to one of the refugee camps in Jordan. In contrast, those families that attempted to access Jordan through non-formal borders we are able to resettle in those places where their social networks were numerous. This suggest that the main differences between families living in Zaatari Camp and non-camp communities were the route they chose to access Jordan, therefore, selection into non-camp communities is mainly influenced by the route to access Jordan and by their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in a lower degree (Achilli, 2015). The reintegration of Syrian families in non-camp communities is not a process that is conducted through random selection. This process is influenced by factors, such as, proximity to Jordanian borders, social networks and socioeconomic conditions. There is no actual policy that has been administered to randomly determine whether refugees must live in Zaatari Camp or non-camp communities. Therefore, our research uses observational data rather than experimental data to make a comparative analysis of the families that are currently living in the Zaatari Camp and those that live in the Jordanian communities. The particular features of the Syrian families required a close examination of the differences in their previous characteristics between families that are living in both environments. In order to be able to use matching techniques, we need to make the assumption that the factors that influence the process by which Syrian families end up being reintegrated in Jordanian 16

19 communities are orthogonal to the potential outcomes obtained as a result of being reintegrated (non-camp communities). This is the ignorability assumption required for matching estimations to identify and measure the result that are strictly a consequence of the treatment. At this point, it is imperative to note that in the absence of a formal policy to ensure complete reintegration of the Syrian refugees, we employ non-camp communities as a proxy for formal reintegration. Due to fact that there are families that have undergone transition from non-camp communities to camp communities and vice-versa, we are careful to constrain our population to those families that have been living under their current status for at least one more year than the previous status, in order to analyze more accurately the impact of reintegration in Jordanian communities. For methodology purposes our main population was divided into control and treatment groups. The control group correspond to Zaatari Camp refugees, whereas the treatment group is presented in terms of the non-camp refugees as a proxy for formally reintegrated refugees. The total observations obtained for the control group were 134, and for the treatment groups we obtained a total of 250 observations. Our final data is a cross-section of both information about the previous living conditions of the Syrian families prior to their departure from Syria and their current living conditions in Jordan. 3.3 Identification Strategy The evaluation of the impact of reintegration requires the identification of a control group that works as good as a randomly selected group. This allow us to make a comparative analysis with the Syrian families that are reintegrated and those that live in Zaatari Camp. In this research, we use the Covariate Matching Method (CVM), and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), with Probit estimations employed as further robustness checks. Covariate matching identifies the nearest Euclidean distance between an observation in the treatment and control. Propensity score matching identifies the probability of an observation being part of the treatment group, resulting from a probit estimation that measures the propensity to be 17

20 part of the treatment group, creating matches between one observation of the treatment group and one observation in the control group with a similar propensity score (Imbens, 2004). In order to measure the effect of reintegration for those that have been reintegrated without any potential source of bias, we need to make two assumptions. First, the conditional independence assumption (ignorability) which suggests in this case, that the previous socioeconomic conditions do not have any effect on the final outcomes. And second, that there is an overlap between the treatment and control groups (assumption of common support) (Imbens, 2004). 3.4 The Model Matching covariates (independent variables) are presented in Table 1. We use education level of the head of household, place of origin, total time under current status, type of job, age and gender of the head of the household and family size. Furthermore, we analyze outcomes (dependent variables) that are divided in seven sets. These dependent variables are summarized in Table 2. With the first set, we analyze the levels of income and expenses in Jordan. With the second set, we explore the quality of labor opportunities. While the third set estimates the restoration of wealth based on the possession of durables assets. With the fourth section investigating the likelihood of experiencing shocks in Jordan. The fifth set presents estimate of the coping behaviors that Syrian families use as strategy to face shocks. With the sixth section assessing the perception of security and integration by the head of households. While the last set presents a gauge of the levels of happiness and optimism of the household head. 18

21 Table 1 Matching Variables Name of the variable Description Categories Education Level Dummy variable High School or College: takes value of one (1) Below High School or College: takes value of zero (0) Place of Origin Dummy variable Daraa: takes value of one (1) Other places in Syria: take the value of zero (0) Time Under Reintegration Takes the values of the number Time variable Status of years under the main status White collar and business: takes the value of one (1) Job Type Dummy variable Blue collar, agriculture, student and retired: take the value of zero (0) Age Numerical variable Takes the values of the ages of each head of household Gender Dummy variable Female: takes the value of one (1) Male: takes the value of zero (0) Family Size Numerical variable Takes the number of members in the family 19

22 Income Employment Wealth Shocks Coping Strategies Table 2 Dependent Variables Income (USD) Log of income levels in Jordan Expenses (USD) Log of expenses levels in Jordan Takes the value of one (1) if the family has lower Restoration of Expenses to Income expenses to income ratio, relative to the one they Ratio used to have in Syria Employment Status Presence: takes the value of one (1) Satisfaction with Job Absence: takes the value of zero (0) Informal Sector Takes the value of one (1) if the family unit has the Restoration of Employment as the ability to have employment as the main source of Main Source of Income income Same Number of Cars Presence of Savings Decrease in Income Theft Sickness Presence: takes the value of one (1). Absence: takes the value of zero (0) Child Labor Reduction of Food Consumption Sell Assets Reduction of Educational Expenses Security Psychological well-being Personal Integration Personal Security Happiness Optimism Starting from one (1) for not at all integrated, to ten (10) to completely integrated Bad: takes the value of one (1). Regular: takes the value of two (2). Good: takes the value of three (3) Starting from one (1) for not at all happy, to ten (10) for very happy Starting from one (1) for not at all optimistic, to ten (10) for very optimistic 20

23 Our main objective in the analysis is to measure the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT): (2) ATT=E(Y1 T=1) - E(Y0 T=1) Where Y1 represents the outcome under treatment status (reintegration), Y0 represents the outcomes under non-treatment status (Zaatari Camp), T represents treatment and ATT accounts for the Average Treatment Effect of the Treated. The ATT represents the mean difference between treatment and non-treatment status for those families that are reintegrated. The last term of equation 2 is the counterfactual and represents the average outcome for those families that are not reintegrated, had they been integrated. Due to the circumstances of our population, it is impossible for us to observe one family been both reintegrated and non-reintegrated, what we are able to observe presented in terms of equation (3) (Khandker, 2010): (3) E Y1 T = 1 E(Y0 T = 0) Which represents the differences in means of the outcomes under reintegration of the families that are reintegrated and the outcomes under non-reintegration for the families that are not reintegrated. Therefore, if we add and subtract the counterfactual we can have an equation like the following: (4) E Y1 T = 1 E Y0 T = 1 + [E Y0 T = 1 E Y0 T = 0 ] In equation 4, we have the ATT on the left-hand side and the selection bias on the right-hand side (Khandker, 2010). In our research, one potential source of selection bias is the social networks that the Syrian families might have in Jordan before and after the start of the Syrian Civil War. This might also be related to the previous socioeconomic conditions of the Syrian families, as is the case of some of the families that we interviewed that were able to anticipate 21

24 an increase of the intensity of the conflict in Syria and prepare for the departure. The literature about refugees and our result suggest that that those that were able to anticipate the shock tend to have higher levels of education and income (Kunz, 1973). The matching techniques used in this research solve the problem of not having a randomly selected control and treatment groups, assuming that those factors that influenced the resettlement process in Jordan are observable and available to be used to match Syrian families from both sample groups, allowing us to make a comparative analysis of the outcomes between our synthetic control (reintegrated families) and treatment (families living in Zaatari Camp) groups. 4. Data Analysis We present our covariates divided by our two main groups of analysis, treatment (reintegrated families) and control group (Zaatari Camp). Our covariates consist of seven variables that represent socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of our entire sample when they were living in Syria. We have explored the characteristics of both sample groups through probit estimations and robustness checks looking for variables that are not affected by the treatment and that provide an area of common support between the sample groups. The variables employed includes: education levels of the head of household, place of origin, total time under current status, type of jobs, age and gender of the head of the household, and family size. For education levels, we are matching observations that have at minimum a high school diploma. In place of origin, we matched Syrian families that used to live in Daraa, since most of our population came from that Governorate in Syria. Additionally, we explored the possibility of using urban or rural area as matching variables, but our results suggested that most of the people from Daraa also used to live in a rural area. Furthermore, for total time under current migration status, we have constrained our original population to only those families that have lived for more than one year under the current status compared to the other (either reintegrated or in Zaatari Camp), if they have lived under both status in Jordan. For job type we attempted to group based on their average income in 22

25 Syria. This led to the discovery that due to the characteristic of the labor markets in Syria, business owners have the same or higher average income levels than people with white-collar jobs. We also discovered that agriculture and blue-collar jobs have similar levels of income, therefore, we decided to match families on whether or not the head of household used to have businesses or a white-collar job. Moreover, for gender, we matched families based on the gender of the head of household interviewed. For age, we matched families based on the age of the head of household interviewed. And finally, for family size we matched families based on the number of members in the family. We present the summary statistics of our covariates in Table 3 and the summary statistics of our outcomes in Table 4, to show that our sample groups are similar and large enough to have an area on common support and visualize the main differences in our variables of interest between both sample groups. According to our summary statistics, most of our population did go to high school or achieved a higher degree of education. As earlier noted, most of our population comes from the same governorate in Syria, Daraa. Also, most Syrian families have lived under their current situation for a little more than three years. The majority of the heads of Syrian families in our population did not have a job that allow them to have high levels of income. Furthermore, the average age of the heads of household is thirty-eight years old. Most of the heads of household interviewed were men and the average family has five members. The main differences between our sample groups are the levels of education, job types and gender of the person interviewed. Refugees that are living in non-camp communities have higher levels of education. The difference in the type of job in Syria is due to the fact that most of the people in the Zaatari Camp comes from Daraa or rural areas, therefore a good number of them used to work as farmers. The difference in the gender of the person interview in the sample groups, is due to the fact, that during the day the fathers of the non-camp families are out of their homes either working or looking for work. Matching estimations were used to control for the heterogeneity between both sample groups. 23