CONTENTS. Preface Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations

Transcription

1 CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments List of Abbreviations xi xv xvii 1 The 1990s Crime Crash in New York 1 A Mysterious Outbreak of Better Behavior Sweeps over the City 1 Written Off as Terminally Ill: A Near Death Experience? 2 Back from the Dead: Was This a Great Time, or What? 7 Irrational Exuberance about the Reversal of Fortune? A Tale of Two Cities 10 Criminological Detective Work: Following Up Leads 13 Two Crime Waves: Way Up, Down Somewhat, Soaring to Record Levels, Crash! 15 Too Good to Be True? The Accuracy of Crime Statistics 18 Just Killings? Was Murder the Only Crime to Crash? 20 Only in New York? Or Was Crime Down Everywhere? 23 What s So Special about New York City? 28 The Clues, So Far 31 Notes 32 2 Deconstructing Murders 34 Going behind the Numbers: Uncovering Patterns and Trends 34 What Was All the Bloodshed About? 34 What s Missing from This Picture? 35 Ultimate Sacrifices 40 Deadfellas Sleeping with the Fishes 41 West Side Stories 42 Wrong Time, Wrong Place: Cruel Twists of Fate 44 v

2 The Real Threats to Life and Limb 45 Predators on the Prowl 46 Fatal Fallings Out: All within the Family 46 Drug-Related Violence 47 Beefs to Kill For, to Die For 49 Lost Souls Gone to a Better Place 50 In Harm s Way 51 Grave Danger 57 Round Up the Usual Suspects? 58 Portrait of the Killers 58 Mortal Combat: Weapons of Choice 64 Crime Scenes 67 High Crime Precincts 71 Putting Together All the Clues 72 What Makes Crime Rates Rise and Fall? 73 Notes 76 3 NYPD or Not NYPD: That Is the Question 83 Everything Works? 83 NYPD Blues 85 The New NYPD: A Sea Change? 92 Sounds Convincing: Evaluating Compstat 94 It s All a Matter of Timing: Did Crime Rates Drop Sharply after the Implementation of Compstat Reforms? 97 Size Counts? Did an Enlarged NYPD Better Fulfill Its Functions? 99 Murders Committed in Visible Locations Tumbled: Did the Police Take Back the Streets? 102 Reasonable Doubts 104 Not So Fast... Did an Improvement in Police Response Time Help Save Lives? 106 Catching Killers 108 Did the Murder Rate Drop Because the Solution Rate Rose? 108 Second Opinions 111 Step Out of Line... Did the Crackdown on Quality-of- Life Infractions Reduce Gun Violence? 113 vi

3 Mission Accomplished? 117 Smoking Guns: Was It Really Zero Tolerance That Discouraged Gun Toting? 121 Can t Stand the Heat? Good Riddance! Were Hard-Core Criminals Driven out of Town? 125 Improved Policing: Necessary, Sufficient, or Not Needed at All? 127 A Rush to Judgment about New York s Finest? The Jury Is Still Out, but the Verdict Is Already In 128 Notes Behind Bars? 141 Were the City s Troublemakers Shipped Upstate by a Tougher Criminal Justice System? 141 The Bad Old Days: A Non-System on the Verge of Collapse? 142 Lock- Em-Up and Throw Away the Key? 146 Do the Crime, Do the Time Or Beat the Rap? 149 Notes The Drug-Crime Connection 160 Were More New Yorkers Just Saying No! to Drugs and Drinking? 160 Drugs R Us: New York as the Center of the Action 161 The Crack Attack 166 Did the Drug Trade Undergo a Transformation? 171 Fewer Abusers, Less Crime: Was the Drug Scene Winding Down? 174 Under Arrest 175 The Favorite Drugs of Criminals 177 One Too Many 178 One Last Time 179 Killed under the Influence 180 Down but Not Out 181 Down with Drinking? 185 Notes 188 vii

4 6 It s the Economy, Stupid! Or Is It? Did the Boom Cause the Crash? 194 The Best of Times? Poverty Rates and Crime Rates 195 As Good As It Gets? Unemployment Rates and Crime Rates 201 Boom and Bust: The Business Cycle and Crime Rates 204 Trickle Down: Was the Underground Economy Thriving? 207 Higher Learning, Lower Criminality? Did the College Experience Counteract Street Smarts? 209 Foreign Aid: Did Immigrants Help Turn the Tide? 215 Wretched Refuse or Huddled Masses Yearning to Breathe Free: Were the Newest New Yorkers Criminally Inclined or Disinclined? 216 Notes Where Have All the Criminals Gone? Did Favorable Demographic Trends Facilitate the Crash? 232 Escape from New York 232 Grisly Arithmetic: Did Untimely Deaths Eliminate Many Active Criminals? 235 Criminals Killed Off by Other Criminals 235 Drug Abusers Overdosing to an Early Grave 237 Lives of Intravenous Drug Abusers Lost to AIDS 238 Criminal Aliens Expelled from the United States 240 For All the Wrong Reasons: The Ugly Bottom Line 242 Generations on the Move: Did the High Risk Population of Young Males Shrink? 243 Fewer Potential Recruits? Young Males with Many Strikes against Them 248 Exercising Their Right to Remain Silent: Did a Dramatic Change in Attitudes Lead a Generation to Turn Away from Crime? 249 Summing Up the Numbers 254 Notes 254 viii

5 8 Lessons from the New York Experience 257 The Anatomy of a Crime Wave 257 They Said It Couldn t Be Done: Ideological Stakes in the Search for Crime s Causes 260 What Really Works? 262 Imagine Final Days: When Did the Crash End? 268 Notes 271 Appendix 273 References 275 Name Index 307 Subject Index 313 About the Author 316 ix