British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 42 July 2017, Vol. 17 (1)

Transcription

1 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 42 The Political and Economic Implications of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan Dr Reema Abu-Hmaidan PO Box 3895, Amman, Jordan Facebook: Reem Abu Hmeidan Phone number: Department of Political Sciences Applied Sciences University Amman, Jordan Abstract This paper demonstrates the political and economic effects of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan ( ), using a systematic scientific framework; assessing the level of impact on Jordan, aiding decisionmakers in dealing with them consistently with the magnitude of the impact. And using analytical and quantitative approaches verifying the hypothesis proposed here. The Syrian refugee crisis has disposed its weight upon Jordan, with burdens beyond its capabilities, affecting all aspects of Jordanian security. This costs more if the necessary measures based on a strategy, ensuring their needs and maintaining national security and interests, are not taken. The crisis poses challenges on Jordan s national security in its economic, social, political and security dimensions, as the number of refugees has increased Jordan s population by 10%, placing pressure onto the country s infrastructure, and increasing the deployment of Jordanian Armed Forces along the northern borders for control. This paper highlights the necessity of having laws or fixed instructions organizing refugees residencies in the Kingdom systemizing their daily lives, taking into consideration the risks of refugees integration within Jordanian society. It also recommends Jordan revisit its foreign policies, pressuring the international community into taking responsibility towards this humanitarian issue, providing Jordan with the adequate assistance. Keywords: Syrian refugee crisis, political effects, economic effects, Jordan, Jordanian demographics, Syrian asylum, international community. Introduction It is necessary to distinguish between voluntary migration and forced migration, when discussing the global refugee crisis, as the former indicates that the migrant has complete will and choice in migrating from one place to another, and it is usually an economic motive that prevails over this decision. The latter, however, indicates that the migrant or group of migrants travel due to reasons threatening their security, lives or freedom, and the migrant in this case does not tend to desire or have planned to migrate, but compelling circumstances may force them from their homes or places of residence. Jordan has been suffering from the consequences of the Syrian refugee crisis since the beginning of 2011, which has produced large waves of refugees exceeding 150,000 people today, in addition to successive waves of Syrians continuously flowing into different cities across the Kingdom as a result of the historical social ties between families in Jordan and Syria, to include relations resulting through marriages and other affinities, as well as trade relations and business relations between both populations. Global migration is considered one of the social phenomena that has been shed light on by researchers, planners and decision-makers due to its repercussions of numerous dimensions (social, economic, political and security). Jordan s geographical location at the confluence of the world s three continents, has played a critical and unique role in all eras, making it a pathway and transit point for many population movements whether in times of peace or conflict, a stage for conflict and power struggles and the convergence of human civilizations since the beginning of history.

2 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 43 Jordan has been under pressure by the successive waves of international migrations arriving into the country since the second half of the twentieth century, which have had implications that have been mostly negative, onto all areas of life to include the demographic, social, economic and cultural aspects. The successive international waves of migrants flowing into Jordan as well as the consequent escalation in the country s population, have created unexpected pressures onto the available resources such as natural resources (water, agricultural land and the environment) and onto the social services present in their various kinds (education, healthcare and housing). Jordan has suffered severe consequences from refugee crises throughout the previous decades. The current Syrian refugee crisis poses huge challenges for the Jordanian government in dealing with it as a crisis which cannot be overlooked or terminated for many reasons. It has placed all its weight on the Jordanian government and population and in all their aspects. It is without doubt that the Syrian refugee crisis that has overshadowed Jordan with its huge numbers has exhausted all of the country s capabilities and has negatively affected its national security as well as all of its political, security, economic and social dimensions, thereby putting the government at stake in dealing with it internally as well as externally. Purpose of study and goals Jordan has dealt with the Syrian crisis humanely and with all understanding, from its authorities to its civilian community, despite the fact that Syria is not one of the signatory countries in the 1951 Refugee Convention, as the Jordanian government considers Syrians in the country as guests and not refugees. These Syrians, however, have not been permitted a clear legal status, and while most Jordanians have been supportive and hospitable towards the Syrian population, the Jordanian government labels them as guests or displaced. Furthermore, the Syrian refugee crisis has greatly affected Jordan s security and will continue to do so, as the smuggling of drugs, weapons and other illegal goods into Jordan has increased. Additionally, the presence of extremist organizations entering the country as refugees, the spread of their ideologies and beliefs and the existence of supporters negatively influence the Jordanian security system. In this case, Salafist and jihadist groups in Jordan which travel to Syria to wage jihad return to Jordan with extremist mentalities and high combat experience, after being brainwashed with ideologies of extremist groups there such as Al-Nusra Front and others. In order to examine the political and economic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan, this study serves to address these repercussions from a systemic research perspective which works on evaluating them. Goals This study aims to: (1) Uncover the political implications of the Syrian refugee crisis on Jordan between 2011 and (2) Uncover the economic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis on Jordan between 2011 and Research problem and questions Jordan has suffered severely throughout the past decades from various refugee crises, which had great effects on the country. The Syrian refugee crisis poses a huge challenge for the Jordanian government in dealing with it as a crisis which cannot be disregarded or stopped due to political and humanitarian factors. It has weighed heavily on the Jordanian government and population, from all political, economic and social dimensions, thus, the services that used to be offered for Jordanians are now provided for a larger population making it insufficient. However, the question posed by this study in light of the ongoing crisis and the international disputes revolving around it, as well as the failure to reach a solution for it within the foreseeable future is: what is the nature of the negative effects of the Syrian refugees on the Jordanian state, politically and economically, during the period of ?

3 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 44 Previous researches The following studies are some of the most important ones relating to the topic of this paper: Khaled Wazani s (2012) study: The Economic and Social Effects of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on the Jordanian Economy This study uncovers the economic and social implications of the Syrian refugee crisis on Jordan s economy, estimating Syrians asylum into the country to amount to an overall economic burden of 590,100,000 million Jordanian Dinars from , equating to 3% of the Kingdom s gross output. The total costs are distributed at two levels; the first being the sectors, and the second being the overall level of the economy and its reflection on the nation s budgetary and imports in addition to the impact of their presence on the labour market. Furthermore, the number of Syrian refugees in the country amounts to an estimate of 220,000, whereby 20% of them reside in refugee camps while the other 80% are spread across the Kingdom s governorates and cities, creating surprising demographic pressures causing an unpredicted 3% increase in the population. The Kingdom has welcomed its Syrian brothers despite its harsh economic conditions and has not abandoned the humanitarian role it has taken up by committing to the joint Arab action, falling within the ethical and social Arab framework. The Economic and Social Council s study (2015): The Effects of the Syrian Refugee Flow onto the Jordanian Labour Market The importance of this study lies in its attempt to overturn the impact of the rights stipulated in international agreements enjoyed by refugees on the economic and social impact, which is the issue in hand. The study concludes that employing Syrians has an effect on various aspects of life to include the economic, social, cultural, traditional and especially the labour market, and this impact is expected to continue in the long run, if the Syrian crisis does not resume and the flow of refugees into Jordan does not increase. The vast numbers of Syrian employees entering the Jordanian labour market is also clear, as the first estimates according to the study show that Syrian employees in Jordan occupy more than 143,000 jobs in various economic sectors, especially those that are unregulated. Seminar by Middle East Research Institute/Centre (2015): The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Jordan The Middle East Research Institute held a political roundtable under the title The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Jordan, whereby the most important economic, political, security and social repercussions were discussed. Participants concluded, regarding the economic impact of the crisis, that the Syrian refugee flow has contributed to increased pressures onto the country s dire economic situation which was already suffering from deficits, debts and unemployment. The refugee flow has also affected the amounts of health and education services, energy support as well as the bread provided by the state, and has caused a decline in the land transport sector as well as the flow of goods between both countries. Regarding the political impact, participants confirmed that the Jordanian official regime s fears about the possibilities of the fall or survival of the Syrian regime have contributed to the confusion of the internal political scene and the road to reform. The possibilities of the fall of the regime and the establishment of a democratic government could promote opportunities for democratic transformations in the Arab region in general, to include Jordan, but its survival could hamper these transformations, according to some people s predictions. United Nations Development Program (2011): Diminishing the Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on Host Communities in Jordan This study suggests that the influx of Syrian refugees is a great burden on Jordanian host communities, which are originally poor communities that suffer from scarce basic social and economic services, indicating that the refugee flow exhausts the limited local resources available

4 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 45 and places enormous pressure on the infrastructure and services. This study also highlights that Syria is dominated by violence and is at risk of a civil war, which could lead to important implications, not only on the Syrian population but also on neighbouring countries in the region. Thus, what distinguishes this study from previous researches, is that the researcher finds that the previous ones analyse the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan using different time periods, however, this paper differs in that it looks at the political and economic repercussions of the crisis since its onset in 2011 until 2016, thereby, allowing the researcher to break grounds by analysing the issue in hand with regards to the developments witnessed by the Syrian crisis throughout these years. Approaches to the study Analytical approach This approach is used throughout this study in analysing the political and economic impact of the Syrian refugees on Jordan, and in explaining the developments of the crisis and their repercussions on the country. This is done through the use of books, references and periodicals discussing this issue, or political magazines or articles, as well as reports issued by the Department of Statistics. Quantitative approach This approach uses financial and statistical datasets issued by the Jordanian official authorities and the relevant Jordanian organizations, in order to highlight the economic implications of the refugees on Jordan, especially in the economic sector. Chapter one: the reality of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has welcomed a vast number of Syrian families mostly from Daraa, since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, who started entering Jordanian territories only a few months after the start of the conflict. Their entry during that period was through border centres, done in a legitimate manner through Al-Ramtha border centre which was their main entry point as the distance between the Syrian city Daraa and the Jordanian city Ramtha does not exceed one kilometre. The Jordanian government confirmed, since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, that it was ready to keep its borders open for Syrian citizens as they do not even need entry visas, residency or work permits to enter the Kingdom s territories. (Amnesty International, 2013) Furthermore, in the early days of the Syrian crisis, the Jordanian government created a technical committee to study the mechanisms for preparing for the developments of the Syrian situation and its effects on Jordan. The technical committee, which was charged by the Jordanian cabinet to design a plan dealing with the possibility of Syrian citizens and refugees of other nationalities moving from Syrian territories to Jordanian ones, met up on 2 May 2011, and came to the conclusion that the Jordanian Armed Forces, security services as well as the country s various ministries and institutions, are to firstly manage and administer the affairs of those refugees allowed to enter Jordanian territories through the border line and entry points to the shelters prepared for this purpose. Secondly, to organize the quartering process in these shelters. And finally, to form a higher committee to manage the refugee crisis, headed by the Minister of Interior Affairs, and to include the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Health, the head of the Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate, as well as the heads of the police, gendarmerie and civil defence departments, with the general command of the Jordanian Armed Forces. In the early days of the Syrian crisis, Jordanian families welcomed their Syrian cousins and relatives who were seeking asylum as a result of the events taking place in Syria, meanwhile civilian efforts represented by some local charities raced to provide aid for Syrian families living in Jordanian cities in their own efforts, or through international cooperation in providing aid for Syrian families hosted in Jordanian governorates, all stemming from the brotherly feelings with the Syrian brothers who resorted to the Kingdom for security and safety. (Addustour Newspaper, 2011) Security matters in Syria are also deteriorating day by day, as the armed conflict between the government and the opposition intensifies, the

5 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 46 cycle of reciprocal violence widens, protests spread to reach new cities, followed by military campaigns and consequently bloody confrontations. The shelling of residential neighbourhoods continues too and spreads to new neighbourhoods creating more victims and casualties as well as loss of lives, properties and possessions, thereby, prolonging the destruction caused by the indiscriminate shelling of neighbourhoods that used to previously thrive with their people and businesses. The number of Syrian families seeking asylum increases every day, each escaping to the country closest to them. While families in the northern Syrian provinces of Idlib, Hims and Aleppo escape to Turkey, families in Damascus travel to Lebanon and those in Daraa to Jordan, starting from its northern governorates; Irbid and Mafraq. The population in Mafraq is one of the poorest in the country, thus, welcoming their Syrian relatives has become an extremely heavy burden considering their poor financial capabilities, as Syrian families have been growing steadily in the area. Consequently, these populations now face several problems, the most important being providing refugees their house rents and daily expenses, as Syrian families consist of many members, are extended and poor and mostly comprise of children and uneducated women, or the savings they have carried with them have been spent, especially considering the rise in living expenses in Jordan compared to those in Syria, as well as the scarcity in job opportunities suitable to those in the governorates of Mafraq and Irbid. (Mercy Corps, 2016) Most of these refugees suffer from poor health conditions which need treating on a regular basis, meaning that they need healthcare insurance allowing them to pay for these treatments and for the high medicine costs, but the aid provided by civil society organizations to include charities, job unions, associations and international organizations has been insufficient. In the face of the difficult circumstances Syrian families residing in Jordan went through in the early days of the conflict in Syria, most Syrian refugees hesitated to register their names as refugees under the United Nations Human High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), fearing that the Syrian regime would avenge their relatives. In light of this, data issued by the UNHCR in 2014 reveals that the number of refugees in the Za atari refugee camp reached 80,000, in turn leading to the growing number of refugees according to 2015 data, whereby, the total number of Syrian refugees in camps reached around 106,587 in March 2013, and there has been an estimate of 435,000 refugee living outside the camps from October 2014 onwards. The UNHCR however announced that the number of Syrian refugees registered with the organization until the beginning of August 2016 was 657,203, whereby the number of those in camps amounted to 141,294, constituting 21% of the total number. Furthermore, the UNHCR has reported on its website that the 2016 Syria Regional Refugee Response Plan amounted to $1,105,517,045, whereby Jordan received $492,761,192 (45% of the total) leaving $612,755,853. (Alrai News, 2016) Data by the UNHCR in 2015 pointed to noticeable changes in the percentage of Syrian refugees in the Kingdom s governorates, as the percentage increased in the capital Amman and some other governorates such as the following: in Amman , in Madaba , in Balqa a 3.2%-3.3%. A new 0.3% presence has emerged in Tafilah and 0.5% in Aqaba, which did not exist in 2014, indicating that Syrian refugees have been moving to new areas within the country that are more compatible with their lifestyles and match their life demands, far away from the overcrowding in some of the large governorates. However, the slight percentage increase in the capital Amman and the governorates nearby (Balqa a and Madaba) highlights the move of Syrian refugees to areas with higher job opportunities available and better living standards. Chapter two: the economic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis on Jordan The demand for energy consumption has increased greatly as a result of the vast flow of Syrian refugees into Jordanian territories, requiring an increase in the production capacity in order to provide the necessary amounts of energy to meet the increased demand, especially in the north of the Kingdom. Therefore, creating an additional force for supplying electricity is an urgent need in order to avoid a shortage in energy, but it is extremely expensive and so forces high costs upon the Jordanian budget and

6 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 47 has consequently created an economic crisis for Jordan and increased its debts to a large extent. Jordan also faces a serious problem of water shortage, and the Syrian crisis has only exacerbated this dilemma, highlighting the need to provide water resources in addition to sanitation services which are considered essential as they require recycling and raising the capacity of these water networks. Additionally, the establishment of camps within water basin areas constitutes a threat to groundwater. (Francis, 2015) The exacerbation of the Syrian crisis and the escalation of the number of Syrian refugees in Jordan has led to an increase in the number of Syrian students in public schools in the country, thereby, affecting the quality of teaching and learning as a result of the overcrowded classrooms and the return of the twoshifts systems in schools, especially those who accepted many students, in addition to an increase in the financial costs of maintenance or expansions. The provision of free health and treatment services to the Syrian brothers registered with the UNHCR, has placed a burden on the Kingdom s budget and healthcare system. Furthermore, the Ministry of Health works through the National Vaccination Program to provide vaccines to fight tuberculosis, measles, child paralysis, typhoid and others, and the Armed Forces provide first aid and medical evacuation for those in need, however, the spread of infectious diseases within the Za atari refugee camp such as tuberculosis, AIDS, hepatitis and others, all require the government to fight these diseases as it fears their spread into cities outside the refugee camps such as Al-Mafraq governorate. (Mansi, 2013) The total indirect economic effects incurred upon the Jordanian economy as a result of the Syrian crisis for the years 2014 and 2015, have amounted to an estimate of $5.87billion; $2.47billion in 2014 and $3.4billion in The percentage increase from 2014 to 2015 is around 38%, thus, applying this percentage to 2013 (negatively) and 2016 (positively) the total impact between 2013 and 2016 amounts to approximately $12.37billion. (MOPIC, 2016) In light of the escalating number of Syrian refugees in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the international community has contributed approximately $236.7million to support these refugees, in addition to another $277.7million under the flexible support clause, $361.3million for budget support and $244million from the United Nations. This highlights that the amount of funding for 2015 equates to around 36% of the funding required for the plan which estimates the Kingdom s direct and indirect needs to about $3billion. (MOPIC, 2016) This funding covers twelve sectors, whereby, $ million allocated to the education sector, $82.1million to healthcare, 3.556million to the justice sector, $34.8million for the support of livelihoods and nutrition, $63.8million for local government and municipal services, $7.4million for shelter, around $139.5million for social security, $69.5million for water and sanitation, $1.1million for management and $317million to support other sectors, while the energy, environment and transport sector did not receive any funding. Furthermore, the Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis , estimates the cost of asylum to be $8.2billion, of which $2.45billion are the costs of Syrian refugees, around $2.485billion are the costs on host communities and approximately $3.201billion to meet the needs of the budget support. (Beibers, 2016) According to a study conducted by Jordan s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the losses suffered by the Kingdom during the Syrian conflict from 2013 to 2016 have reached about $12.37billion. The study also highlights that the total indirect economic effects incurred by the Jordanian economy as a result of the Syrian crisis from the years 2014 and 2015 amounts to $5.87billion; $2.47billion in 2014 and $3.4billion in Furthermore, the study emphasizes the fact that the percentage increase from 2014 to 2015 is around 38%, and so applying this onto the years 2013 (negatively) and 2016 (positively), means that the total impact in the period from 2013 to 2016 amounts to $12.37billion. (Al-Dabeeseh, 2016) Moreover, the following are the most prominent implications of the Syrian crisis on the different sectors in Jordan: Education sector Around 13% of students were not capable of attaining an education opportunity as a result of the lack of classrooms, and 86% of the reason behind this in the education sector is the presence of Syrian

7 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 48 students. The education sector in Jordan has faced many challenges due to the escalation in the number of Syrian students, estimated at around 12% in 2016, and the fragility of this sector is concentrated in the governorates of Amman, Zarqa, Irbid and Mafraq. Despite initiatives undertaken by the Ministry of Education in order to accommodate Syrian students, there still exists a huge proportion of schools (around 47%) struggling with the overcrowding of students, the number of schools operating on a two-shifts system has reached 200 schools, and the quality and levels of education have deteriorated. Thus, analysing the fragility in this sector indicates the need to create around 2800 additional classrooms and 200 schools to ensure that the educational process proceeds according to national aspirations and principles. (Beibers, 2016) Health sector Twenty-three percent of the population do not have beds available for them in public hospitals, and 86% of the reason behind this is the presence of Syrian refugees. The increase in Jordan s population, resulting from the flow of Syrian refugees, has led to a 21% increase in the demand for water in different areas across the Kingdom, in the northern governorates however, demand for water has increased by 40%, as these governorates host vast number of Syrian refugees. This has consequently led to a decline in the citizen s share to around 60 litres per day, requiring urgent support for the provision of basic services for refugees and their host communities. Health services in schools have also been affected, as 98% of the water and sanitation facilities in schools need improvements to ensure a healthy environment. (Beibers, 2016) Solid waste management The percentage of fragility is 19%, meaning that Jordan does not have the capacity to deal with 19% of the solid waste available. Water sector Seventy percent of the population across the Kingdom suffer from shortage of water at rates well below national levels, and the most critical cases being in Irbid, Mafraq, Ma an ad Jerash. The percentage of fragility or vulnerability as a consequence of the presence of Syrians reaches 62% while the other 38% is due to increased demand from Jordanians. Municipality services Municipalities in Jordan have been under constant pressure to provide services to Syrian refugees, as the unexpected growth in population has increased local tensions, especially between Jordanian citizens in host communities who have been demanding a more effective response from the state s institutions and local authorities regarding their private and personal needs. Among the areas most affected by the Syrian crisis is the inability to provide municipal services (machinery and equipment, construction, maintenance, road lights and other public works). Solid waste management is another affected area, as the results of the vulnerability and fragility analysis indicate that 11% of the population (Jordanians and Syrians) do not receive the adequate services for waste collection and compression due to the increased pressure on the waste collection process in the more affected municipalities and due to not having a sufficient amount of compressors. Additionally, municipalities do not have the capacity to manage around 20% of the existing solid waste. Furthermore, social cohesion and civic engagement have also been distressed as the increased pressure onto municipality services have increased social tensions, and the flow of refugees has caused clear demographic changes which need to be addressed continuously through the engagement of local communities. (Petra, 2017). Labour market sector According to statistics from the third quarter of 2016, the unemployment rate in Jordan has reached 15.8% of the population, thereby UNHCR sources show that 90% of Syrian refugees live under the poverty line. During the period when humanitarian assistance worked on removing refugees both in and out of camps from serious levels of poverty, around 26% of refugee families residing outside the camps

8 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 49 depended on the incomes members of their families receive from working low-income jobs. (MOPIC, 2016) The escalating flow of Syrian refugees into Jordan has increased the unemployment rate, causing increased competition over job opportunities, which could eventually develop bigger challenges and increase the magnitude of social issues. The Jordanian government spends around 2.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) on social assistance, in addition to 4.8% on health insurance, social security and civil pensions. And according to the National Aid Fund, 20,000 Jordanian families have been added to the list of families benefiting from cash assistance programs as a result of the direct and indirect repercussions of the Syrian crisis. (Petra, 2017) Food security Despite Jordan s ability of attaining numerous achievements to ensure the stability of food security within its territories, the persistence of the Syrian crisis has led to the suffering of Syrian refugees and host communities as a result of food insecurity. Studies by the World Food Program (WFP) in 2016 indicate that 72% of Syrian refugee families in host communities are food insecure compared to 85% in This slight improvement in food security for Syrian refugees is attributed to the stability of food aid. The Jordanian government estimates the direct cost of hosting Syrian refugees between 2011 and 2015 at around $6.644billion. And according to records from the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the direct cost of welcoming around 1.4 million Syrian refugees is around $6.644billion, whereby $4.79billion of it is the cost on various sectors and $1.854billion is the cost on the treasury. This cost however does not include interventions related to humanitarian assistance and the strengthening of resilience and stability. (MOPIC, 2016) Furthermore, Syrians constitute 20% of the population in Jordan. The annual costs of the crisis, according to the Ministry, do not necessarily reflect the funding needed to cope with the effects of the crisis on the refugees, host communities and the treasury. Moreover, the 2015 Jordanian Response Plan estimates the direct and indirect needs for 2015 alone at around $3billion, however, only 35% of the total value of the projects under this plan was funded. (Beibers, 2016) In light of this, the Jordanian government along with the international community have agreed on 12 January 2017, under the Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis on a total of $7.6billion, meaning an estimate of $2.5billion per year. According to the plan, Jordan s need for funding amounts to $7.642billion, whereby, $2.9billion is dedicated to budget support and $4.6billion to the support of other demands that are non-budget related. The Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis , is a call for increased response to these financial demands. The total amount of funding provided by the international community under the Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis has increased to 54.05% of the total demands required, whereby, $482.1million were distributed to support host communities, $568.1million to support refugees and $385.9million to support the treasury, since the Supporting Syria and the Region Conference, held on 4 February 2016 in London, and this comes in comparison to the support offered in the past few years which does not exceed two-thirds of the costs of the plan. (Petra, 2017) Chapter three: the political implications of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan The Jordanian Armed Forces plays a huge role in the reception of many refugees and in their succour and comfort before they move to the specially designated welcome centres, in addition to the rest of the security forces, to include the police, the civil defence and the gendarmerie, which provide specialized services in the camps. This, in fact, is an additional effort for the Armed Forces and security forces, supplementary to the effort made by the Armed Forces and the bodies concerned with protecting the borders and combatting smuggling to and from Jordan, in order to keep the borders safe and secure and maintain a local community free of drugs, weapons and the likes. (Francis, 2015) The Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan has also had an impact on the security of the country, whereby, the smuggling of arms, drugs and other illegal goods into Jordan increased. The presence of extremist

9 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 50 organizations entering the country as refugees, the spread of their beliefs and ideologies as well as the existence of individuals supporting them has negatively affected the Jordanian security system. (Mansi, 2013) The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, led by His Majesty King Abdullah II, has taken a firm stance regarding the Syrian conflict, in its national and Arab duty, its commitment to its humanitarian role and its respect to the international standards towards its Arab brothers who have suffered and still suffer from crises, as it did in the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israeli conflicts, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Third Gulf War in 2003, and the 2006 war in Lebanon. This means that Jordan s support for its brothers has been continuous and has taken all forms, as it has throughout the Syrian crisis where it has welcomed its Syrian brothers since the beginning of the journey and has facilitated them with all that is possible. (Beibers, 2016) Moreover, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan started taking the Syrian refugee crisis more seriously after the crisis worsened, as its costs started exceeding Jordan s capabilities, and so it became unable to manage it without international aid. Furthermore, His Majesty has discussed and explained the outreach and dimensions of the Syrian crisis in international forums through his visits to other countries, official meetings and conferences, during which His Majesty focused on the humanitarian aspect of the crisis, its magnitude and its impact on Jordan. The Jordanian government has also undertaken diplomatic activity at the external and internal levels to explicate the implications of the Syrian crisis on Jordan, thereby, highlighting the role of the legislature in questioning the government about the measures it has taken regarding the crisis. Furthermore, the Jordanian Armed Forces and security forces played a pivotal role in managing the crisis in the aspects they are concerned with only, in addition to the crucial role the population played since the beginning of the crisis. (Al-Dabeeseh, 2016) In light of this and on a political level, Jordan has resorted to the United Nations and in particular to the Security Council, which is responsible for achieving international peace and security, where it addressed a clear message regarding this issue, presenting the challenges it faces as a result of the refugee crisis, further clarifying its inability to pay its obligations while also demanding international solidarity in aiding with the relief of Syrian refugees not only in Jordan but in all the neighbouring countries they have resorted to. This is because no single state is capable of sustaining these repercussions on its own, no matter how powerful and resourceful it is. The importance of Syria is reflected in international and regional efforts which have made each side an effective factor in managing the Syrian crisis, by providing points for Russian and Chinese forces, not to mention the importance of Iran in the Syrian crisis as well. Therefore, the United Nations had to adopt an ally that would direct the Middle East in its favour, and so it formed relations with Islamic groups since the 1950 s, serving its geostrategic interests in the region, according to US policymakers. This handover of power in Arab countries and Turkey to Islamists became an obstacle to Iran, as well as to China and Russia s mission in reaching the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, and Europe in reaching the heart of Africa. Furthermore, the role assigned to Turkey under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) was to lead the Arab world in this direction, by uniting three Islamic capitals (Ankara, Riyadh and Cairo) in a triangle preventing any Iranian intervention in the direction of the Mediterranean. (Wakim, 2011) Since 2011, the Syrian crisis has created a point of engagement between regional regimes represented by Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and international regimes signified by the United States of America, Russia, and the European Union, thereby, connecting the diplomatic rivalry between the international and regional parties through an internal civil war between the Syrian regime and the opposition, allowing for the emergence of extremist groups as a major actor in the Syrian crisis. (Abdelfattah & Naser, 2013, p. 3) Furthermore, on the level of interactions and balances within the camp opposing the Syrian regime, Western support appears by the United States and Europe. Regarding the United States, it can be said that the American stance on the Syrian conflict, and after more than a year since it commenced, has been to discuss the possibility of a political solution, and threaten with additional measures if the regime fails

10 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 51 to initiate genuine political reforms and responds to external pressures, meaning that the United States has not yet reached the point of asking President Bashar Al-Assad to step down, as it did with the previous Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the Libyan Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. The successive American statements and the position of the US administration, according to the latest American project presented to the Security Council on 6 March 2012, revolve around ending the violence and opening opening the corridors for humanitarian aid. (Al-Alan, 2015) Furthermore, the aggravation of the Syrian crisis has led to the revelation of a complicated geopolitical reality in the Arab region, highlighting the competition between Turkey and Iran, as the previous flexibility in the international system has contributed in providing regional states more effective roles allowing them to express their policies and aspirations in areas vital to their direct interests. Iran has faced this new geopolitical reality alongside Syria politically and logistically, opening the doors for the persistence of geostrategic engagement with central states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) on the one hand, and by extension with Turkey, the most prominent regional geostrategic actor in the region. (Azizi, 2015) Asylum and displacement operations witnessed in the Arab region following the Syrian crisis, have imposed increased burdens on the ground and on human beings, which there is no doubt that as a host country, Jordan cannot stand alone to bear. The issue requiring combining all efforts to enable Jordan to fulfil its responsibilities and obligations towards refugees on its territories, is especially in terms of security, as the biggest thing facing the security situation is the fear of the presence of dormant cells between the Syrians in the Kingdom, which could be exploited by one of the parties to the conflict in Syria in order to threaten and undermine the country s security and stability. Furthermore, individuals, extremists or terrorist groups entering Jordanian territories, or even elements of armed forces (regime forces, dissidents, or armed groups), under illegal or incorrect statuses, also pose a danger to the country, in addition to cases of smuggling people and human trafficking, the challenges in smuggling weaponry, explosives and trading them, smuggling drugs across the borders, and exploiting the security situation to smuggle artefacts and goods. (Public Security Directorate, n.d.) Furthermore, the number of Syrians in Jordan which has been constantly increasing, constituting 21% of the Kingdom s total population needs great security efforts and an increase in the number of security cadres, equipment, buildings and training, as well as security efforts in camps, especially the Za atari camp. Security and safety concerns from Syrians in the cities are much greater than those from refugees in the camps who are protected by security and exceptional follow-ups. Many refugees, especially those arriving through military façade, either do not carry any documents or have forged ones, thus, it is difficult to conduct proper and accurate security checks in the absence of a database for Syrians. Therefore, a computerized database contingent on iris recognition has been created, and so work is under way to re-register and document data for Syrians in the Kingdom according to this system. However, significant security challenges still exist in relation to the increasing number and types of crimes. (MOPIC, 2016) As for the political dimension however, Jordan in line with its international and humanitarian obligations cannot close its borders in the face of refugees. Additionally, the issue of recognizing the asylum status of those residing on the Kingdom s territories would set future political commitments, to include resettlement in host communities in the future. Generally, permanent solutions for refugees include their voluntary return to their homes in their home countries as their lives and freedoms are not threatened anymore, resettlement in a third country, or even local integration and resettlement in the host country of first asylum. The security dimension: The security dimension is considered a basic requirement to achieve comprehensive development, as the relationship between them is complementary. Therefore, the absence of security paralyzes the rate of development. Moreover, the impact of the Syrian crisis on the security dimension can be summarized as follows:

11 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 52 1) The smuggling of weapons, drugs and other illegal goods into Jordan across the borders has increased, as large amounts of weapons and advanced communication devices are caught daily. 2) The presence of extremist terrorist organization going into Jordan as refugees and spreading their poisonous ideologies and beliefs, and the possibility of the presence of supporters, will negatively affect the Jordanian National Security System. 3) The increase in the poverty and unemployment rates and the escalation in prices as well as tensions, will create a situation of chaos which would negatively affect and threaten all aspects of national security. 4) The repercussions of the Syrian crisis will affect the regional environment and will allow international interventions, which would consequently affect the security and stability of all the countries in the region. 5) The Syrian crisis has revealed the humanitarian aspect as well as the professionalism of the Armed Forces and the Jordanian security forces in dealing with the crisis, which have been praised by various media sources. Conclusion The crisis of the Syrian refugee flow into Jordan has had negative repercussions onto the Jordanian national security as well as all its political, security, economic and social aspects, putting the government at stake in dealing with the issue both externally and internally. However, the crisis has also had positive implications on Jordanian politics on all levels; on an international level, Jordan has shown its respect for international and humanitarian conventions, and on a regional level, Jordan s image remains untouched with regards to this area due to its Arab nationalist stances. On the one hand, the Jordanian government has provided Syrian refugees with everything possible and has shown great efforts, but on the other hand, there have been many shortcomings in the government s management of the crisis since its onset, which have taken the following forms: (1) The Jordanian government did not have clear strategy in dealing with the refugee crisis since the beginning. (2) The assigned government institutions did not control the movement of refugees and their spread into the country s cities and villages, thereby, increasing the burdens onto these areas especially in the northern region. (3) When building the first camp, the Za atari camp, the Jordanian government had not studied the long term positive and negative effects of the location, and so its closeness to the Syrian borders has facilitated the entry and exit into the camp, and its proximity to the Mafraq governorate has been a disadvantage to the population s demographics and traditions. Pros and cons (4) The Jordanian government has not been able to control the refugees illegal activities, thereby, portraying a negative image of what actually happens in these refugee camps from prostitution, to drug taking and to the spread of many bad habits to include chaos and violence, forcing the Jordanian Armed Forces to intervene, thereby, reflecting the government s mismanagement of the crisis. (5) Jordan is considered one of the most countries, on an international level, to deal with refugee crises, and there is no law determining the residence of refugees onto its territories. The crisis has revealed a positive side in the interaction between different components to include the Jordanian population, the government, political parties and unions, in attending to issues affecting the Jordanian national security, and the interaction of all these spectra with the Jordanian people who are amongst the most disaffected by the crisis and the first to experience its repercussions. The crisis has also exposed the weakness of the Jordanian media, especially the official media, as it did not highlight the magnitude of the struggle that Jordan faces as a result of the Syrian refugee crisis. On the contrary, despite the efforts made in all public and official areas, some satellite channels broadcast unfortunate

12 British Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 53 incidents about refugees, forgetting all the positives and services provided for the Syrian brothers. Moreover, the crisis has also shown the extent of professionalism enjoyed by the Armed Forces and security forces in dealing with refugees, as well as the humanitarian role they play, as they always have. Results In light of the previously discussed, the study concludes that: The Syrian refugee crisis has weighed heavily on Jordan and the burdens it bears are enormous and exceed the country s capabilities. The impact of the crisis on the Jordanian national security is great in all aspects therefore this might cost the country larger amounts if it does not act on measures and plans based on a clear strategy ensuring the provision of their needs and maintaining national security as well as national interests. The Jordanian government has taken numerous measures that have shown successes in some parts of managing the crisis and shortcomings in others, and has also put a great deal of effort. However, it has not accomplished the goals and objectives it had made the efforts for, forcing it to lose control over the biggest gathering of Syrian refugees, thereby, spreading bad behaviours within it which could eventually spread to the governorates in the country if they are not controlled, consequently threatening the Jordanian security to dangerous extents. The Syrian crisis forms a serious challenge to the Jordanian national security in all its economic, social, political and security dimensions, whereby, the number of refugees has contributed to the increase in Jordan s population by approximately 10%, creating pressure on the infrastructure, as well as the increased deployment of Jordanian Armed Forces especially along the northern borders to monitor them. The presence of many armed organizations to include extremist and atheist ones, involved in the conflict in Syria poses a severe challenge to the Jordanian national security. This challenge can be transformed into a threat at any moment, thereby, requiring a more careful follow-up to what takes place inside Syria and better preparations to confront it when necessary. Recommendations In light of the results above, the study poses the following recommendations: Creating a computerized database to restrict all Syrian refugees on the Kingdom s territories, activating a mechanism to control and manage refugees entry and exit operations, increasing the security awareness of employees working on it and providing refugees with educational bulletins and lectures by those employees concerned with the database. Controlling Syrian employment in the Jordanian labour market which increases the rate of unemployment and organizing the work of some professions which can be of use in the Jordanian labour market to push and support the national economy. The need for a law or fixed instructions managing the residence of refugees on the Kingdom s territories and organizing their daily lives, while taking into account the risks of their integration into the Jordanian society. The need to activate Jordan s foreign policy in order to place pressure onto the international community so it can take responsibility towards this humanitarian and global issue and consequently provide the adequate assistance to aid Jordan. The control of entry operations and handling of refugees by charities and non-governmental organizations should be done through the Jordanian government and the Jordanian Red Cross. Developing a clear and specific strategy for dealing with refugees in the case where the crisis persists for many years.