From the Editor s Desk

Transcription

1 8 March 2011 Vol. 2, 8. From the Editor s Desk Dear FDI supporters, This week, FDI s Indian Ocean research programme will hold its next research workshop titled China in the Indian Ocean Region Strategic Aims, Intentions and Implications. The workshop will link policy experts and practitioners from around Australia and the region in Perth, Canberra and Sydney. FDI is also very pleased to welcome Amanda Chang to the team. Amanda will contribute to our Global Food and Water Crises research programme in the role of Researcher. In what has been another busy week at the FDI offices, FDI staff have held meetings with officials from the Western Australian Departments of State Development and Commerce and leading scholars from Curtin and Murdoch Universities. In this week s edition of the Strategic Weekly Analysis, the Global Food and Water Crises research programme investigates the implications for Libya s ambitious Great Man-Made River irrigation project in light of the unrest gripping the country and considers a report on the history of global water scarcity which will provide a useful framework for identifying future water scarcity issues. The Indian Ocean research programme takes a look at the Kingdom of Bhutan, which is providing India with a welcome bulwark against China s growing links with New Delhi s neighbours and reports on the concerns being felt in India regarding Chinese infrastructure projects around the two powers disputed border. Upcoming Strategic Analysis Papers include an examination of some of the implications of conducting negotiations in Afghanistan and an outline of the state of global aquifers. I trust that you will enjoy this edition of the Strategic Weekly Analysis. Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Institute Director and CEO Future Directions International

2 Libyan Water Project Casualty of Unrest Background The civil unrest in Libya threatens one of the most ambitious water projects to be attempted by any country. If crucial water infrastructure is damaged in the tribal fighting, the population of Libya may lose its water sources and those in the cities of Tripoli, Benghazi and Sirt will be the first to suffer from thirst. In addition, the agricultural sector that was built on the back of the project could collapse. Comment Touted as the eighth wonder of the world by Colonel Muammar al-gaddafi, Libya s $27 billion Great Man-Made River project (GMMR) is a water transport scheme of enormous scope that serves as a vital water source for Libya s cities and provides water for industrial and agricultural use. Libya, covered by 90 per cent desert, once relied solely on water derived from wells and desalination plants, which was of poor quality and sometimes undrinkable. This all changed in 1959 when oil exploration deep in the southern Libyan Desert lead to the discovery of vast reservoirs of high quality water in the form of aquifers. Four major aquifers are estimated to contain over 35,000 cubic kilometres of water. During the 1980s a decision was made to construct a 4,000 kilometre network of pipelines to transport water from the desert, where the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer is located, to the populated coastal cities. Work began in It is already the largest underground network of pipes in the world, supplying an estimated 6.5 million cubic metres of fresh water per day. Figure 1: Map of the Pipeline Network In mid-2010, construction had started on Phase III to connect the eastern and western systems of the pipeline network and this was expected to be completed by the end of The goal of the GMMR had been to make Libya a source of agricultural abundance, capable of producing sufficient food and water to supply its needs. A total of 130,000 hectares of land was set to be irrigated for new farms to grow produce for the domestic market and reduce dependence on imports. Libya imports about 75 per cent of its food. The project has failed in its ambitious aims. Libya still only supplies 25 per cent of its food needs. However, through the GMMR, agriculture has once again become a significant contributor to the country s economy. During the 1970s, agriculture accounted for around three per cent of GDP, whereas today it provides around one-quarter of the country s revenue. The project is dependent on foreign expertise. Following the outbreak of violent street protests this year, several companies have had to evacuate their expatriate employees, including Pure Technologies, based in Canada, which had 14 employees working on the project in eastern Libya. The recent events in Libya will affect the business and revenue of those companies, at least in the short term. The project s Page 2 of 8

3 financiers also have good reason to be concerned if the water infrastructure becomes a target for the warring factions in the country. The political conflict in Libya does not look like it will be resolved any time soon as Gaddafi continues to hold on to power. Thus, his fall, or a prolonged challenge to his rule, would create a vacuum affecting Libyan infrastructure, its international relations and, consequently, global markets. Without continued work on the GMMR project, Libya would have a significant crisis on its hands. Not only would Libyans eventually have no access to clean drinking water, but with 70 per cent of the water currently going to agriculture, Libya may no longer have the food and water security it once held high hopes for. There are reports that Gaddafi has already attempted to bomb some of the pipelines that carry water to oppositionheld cities and towns. The deteriorating situation may have all but wiped out the potential for further joint ventures and investment by international companies in the GMMR. Several national governments and international bodies have already imposed financial and trade sanctions, further isolating Libya and weakening its potential to gain a foothold in overseas consumer markets. The water project is not the only one to suffer in the country. The fate of several other projects in Libya has been left hanging in the balance after scores of foreigners working in the construction and oil industries have fled the country. There are reports that at least 16,000 Chinese, 15,000 Turks and 1,400 Italians had been evacuated. As the future of the world s most ambitious irrigation scheme remains uncertain, the international community is forced to consider the prospect of a major humanitarian crisis unfolding in Libya, as well as the entire region, with hordes of Libyans seeking refuge elsewhere. Brooke Jones FDI Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme bjones@futuredirections.org.au In Bhutan, India Remains Dominant in Asia s Geopolitical Great Game Background For nearly a decade the intensifying rivalry between India and China has been seen in practically every country in South Asia. In most cases, due to a combination of reasons, India has encountered major hurdles in attempting to expand its influence among neighbouring countries. The small Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, however, has been a contrasting and outstanding exception to this trend, where India has successfully strengthened its influence to secure its position as Bhutan s closest ally. Comment Being predominantly Buddhist, the people of Bhutan have traditionally shared strong linguistic, religious and cultural similarities to Tibet, India and Nepal with an estimated 75 per cent of the population Buddhist and 25 per cent Hindu. Hence, when Bhutan attained independence in December 1949, relations with China have been strained, especially since 1950, when China invaded and occupied Tibet resulting in thousands of Tibetan refugees seeking asylum in Bhutan. In 1960, Bhutan closed its northern border with China. It has since remained closed. Page 3 of 8

4 Bhutan s relationship with China has remained underdeveloped and practically stagnant with no official diplomatic relations. Some minor successes have been noted, however, such as when Bhutan voted in favour of Communist China s UN seat in Similarly, Bhutan has continued to honour its commitment to the One China policy and has also signed the 1998 Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity in the Bhutan-China Border Areas. Trade relations have similarly remained at negligible levels, equating to around US$1 million in 2002, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People s Republic of China. Since then, evidence of growing trade has been difficult to obtain. The vexing problem of the disputed border has been the focus of relations. Seemingly endless attempts to negotiate a common boundary along the 470 kilometre border have met with failure. In fact, since 1984 when negotiations first started, there have since been 19 such attempts between the two countries to resolve the disputed border. In the last decade, tensions with China have flared up on several occasions. For example, in 2004, Bhutan complained that Chinese soldiers reportedly commenced road construction in an area claimed by Bhutan. After Bhutan lodged strong protests, China halted construction. However, in 2008 and 2009 respectively, Bhutan again complained that on over 17 occasions Chinese soldiers trespassed deep into Bhutanese territory. In marked contrast, while Bhutan s relations with China have remained strained, its relations with India have continued to flourish, going from strength to strength. India has a 699 kilometre border with Bhutan and considers the Himalayan kingdom to be strategically vital to its interests in providing strategic depth and security to the narrow Siliguri Corridor, also known as the chicken s neck, which links mainland India to its distant north-eastern states. Most notably since May 2008, when Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh visited Bhutan, relations between the two countries have undergone a major transformation. Following his visit, in 2009 India signed 12 agreements with Bhutan pledging assistance and financial aid in a number of key areas, which included enhanced co-operation in law enforcement, defence, civil aviation, search and rescue operations, and health and information technology. Outstanding examples include funding for a 50-seat undergraduate medical college; assistance to set up ten hydroelectric projects by 2020 to generate 11,000 megawatts of power and the provision of 2.05 billion rupees ($45.1 million) to promote computer literacy. Such efforts by India have been strongly endorsed by Bhutan, which views India as an important counterweight to China. Some say Bhutan was wise to seek strong bilateral relations with India. This is true. After all, whether we speak about our socio-economic progress or our successful transition towards democracy, India has been a steadfast partner and friend, stated the King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck. Nonetheless, while relations with India continue to improve, Bhutan faces a major strategic problem with its unresolved border dispute with China. Given the history of negotiations, and what appear to increasing tensions associated with Chinese incursions, it is likely that Chinese pressure on Bhutan will grow in the coming years as China jostles to enhance relations in order to contest India s influence over the Himalayan kingdom. Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe FDI Senior Analyst sdesilva@futuredirections.org.au Page 4 of 8

5 Population Increases Key Driver of Water Scarcity Background A study into the history of global water scarcity over the past 2,000 years provides a useful framework for identifying future water scarcity issues. The report concluded that human population growth was four times more significant than the impact of climate change in determining where water scarcity will occur in the future. Comment The report, Is Physical Water Scarcity A New Phenomenon? Global Assessment of Water Shortages over the Last Two Millennia, was published by the Institute of Environmental Studies and the VU University in the Netherlands and the Finish Water and development Research Group from Aalto University. It found that moderate water shortages first appeared around 1800, but became a significant issue from about 1900, when nine per cent of the world s population experienced water shortages, of which two per cent suffered chronic water shortages of less than 1,000 cubic metres per capita per year. From 1960 onwards, water shortages really became an issue rising from 280 million people in 1960 to 35 per cent of the population, or 2.3 billion in South Asia has the greatest problems, where 91 per cent of the population experiences some form of water shortages. The next most severe shortages are in North Africa and the Middle East, where 77 per cent and 52 per cent of the total population face extreme water shortages, having access to less than 500 cubic metres per capita per year. Besides the physical water scarcity, communities can also experience scarcity induced by political power, policies and/or socio-economic relations. The report says that the four regions (Central America, Latin America, Middle and Southern Africa and the Middle East) in which over half the population already lives under water shortages are the same regions in which annual population growth rates are still more than two per cent, indicating that water shortages will probably continue to increase rapidly in these regions in the future. The report says that there is simply not enough water available in some regions and this problem is likely to increase in the future due to population pressures, higher welfare, production of water- intensive biofuels and climatic change. Measures to increase water availability by building dams or increasing the abstraction of groundwater will not be sufficient in dealing with future shortages. More effective measures will be increasing the efficiency of water use, lowering water use intensity in regions with water shortages, reforming the economic structure of countries or entire regions and optimising virtual water flows. The report is a useful contribution to the understanding of future water scarcity. By identifying the water scarcity trends over the past 2000 years, it is possible to consider where the future water security threats will exist. What is clear is that water scarcity is only likely to get worse, particularly in regions experiences higher population growth, unless certain measures are taken to shore up water availability. Page 5 of 8

6 Further reading: Kummu, M., Ward, P.J., de Moel, H., and Varis, O., (2010), Is Physical Water Scarcity A New Phenomenon? Global Assessment of Water Shortages over the Last Two Millennia. Environmental Research Letters. 5: (10pp). Gary Kleyn Manager FDI Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au Chinese Infrastructure in Tibet Causing Concern for India Background The Indian Defence Minister, Mr A.K. Antony, has faced questioning in Parliament about a large number of new infrastructure developments in Tibet as concern mounts in New Delhi over their military implications. Comment In a written reply to questions asked by 19 MPs from both sides in the lower house of the Indian Parliament, the Lok Sabha, on 7 March 2011, Mr Antony responded that India was taking all necessary steps to ensure its national security via infrastructure developments of its own, force modernisations and increased troop deployments along the disputed Sino-Indian border. Source: At the heart of the matter is the increased infrastructure construction on the Chinese side of the border as part of Beijing s annual $91.5 billion ($90.4 billion) military budget. As reported in the Times of India, China has built five fully-operational airbases, an extensive rail network and over 58,000 kilometres of roads across Tibet. 1 For New Delhi, the military implications are of the utmost concern. As the Times of India notes:... extensive road-rail links in Tibet, *mean that the+ People s Liberation Army (PLA) can amass upwards of two divisions (30,000 soldiers) at their launch pads along the border in just 20 days now compared to the over 90 days it took earlier. According to Mr Antony, India is countering China s efforts by deploying two squadrons of new Sukhoi- 30MKI fighters to its north-eastern air bases of Chabua and Tezpur, has raised two new mountain infantry divisions of 1,260 officers and 35,011 troops to serve in the region, is upgrading a number of advance landing fields and improving road and rail links to facilitate troop movements into the area. 1 Pandit, R., 8 March 2011, China has five airbases, extensive rail-road networks in Tibet: Antony, Times of India. Page 6 of 8

7 The border issue, and management of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), remains a contentious issue in Sino-Indian relations despite recent attempts from both governments to downplay its significance in favour of the two countries increasing trading links. Along the LAC itself, however, incursions still occur from time to time, most recently in October 2010, when Chinese PLA troops crossed the border to stop the construction what Indian officials described as a passenger shed. Other incursions occurred in 2009 when PLA forces halted road construction work at a number of locations along the border. The very length of the frontier itself is a cause for dispute. In December 2010, Indian media reports took exception to reports by the Chinese Xinhua news agency and Global Times newspaper ahead of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao s visit to India that the border was almost 2,000 kilometres in length. India considers the border to measure 3,488 kilometres and the discrepancy was viewed in some quarters as another attempt by China to further its border claims. Leighton G. Luke Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme lluke@futuredirections.org.au What s Next? Prime Minister Julia Gillard s visit to the United States continues until 13 March. A Kuwaiti opposition group will rally today to force the resignation of the country s Prime Minister. The group, headed by former parliament speaker Ahmad al-saadun wants a new government formed to battle corruption, guarantee public freedoms and improve economic conditions. The Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) has organised a special breakfast with Indonesian Vice-President H.E. Professor Dr Boediono. The talk will focus on the future of the Australian-Indonesian relationship. The Indonesian Minister for National Education, Muhammad Nuh, will be the special guest. The breakfast will be held March 10 from am at the Perth Convention Centre. To register, jenn.hammond@ceda.com.au or call (08) South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will conduct an official visit to the United Arab Emirates on March for economic and energy talks. Page 7 of 8

8 Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International. Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005 Australia. Tel: Fax: lluke@futuredirections.org.au Web: Page 8 of 8